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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Expansion Draft, Voracek, Flyers Daily, TIFH and More
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PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 19 @ 6:00 PM ET
Sounds like PT wants a paradigm shift in team-wide theory.

Not saying it CANT work, but how can you possibly quantify what this argument is even about?

It's all semantics.

Anyway, the Ellis trade HATERS make no sense. We have no IDEA what will happen in 3-6 years.


-he might not deteriorate as quick as some think ...
-there might be another buyout in the next CBA....
-he might be a BARGAIN for a few years....
-we might be able to flip him if OTHER guys pan-out ...

- DrMidnite


It is very simple, and its nothing specific to hockey.

In anything in life where you have a stake, including probably in your architecture firm if it is large, you have a professional business plan. Business plans are like weather reports. You look at patterns from the past, and extrapolate from that to the future to make predictions.

Are they infallible? No. Are they better than just throwing darts? Hell yeah. We don't know what will happen with Ellis, but we can certainly get likelihoods.

My problem is, I see no reasonable business plan for the Flyers in the way they are proceeding that results in a cup. I want that changed. That's the paradigm shift I crave.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 19 @ 6:01 PM ET
Nope. It’s literally what you should do. Drafting poorly and keeping the wrong players will lead to a lack of success.
- mickel25


Are you sure about that?
mickel25
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Morgantown, PA
Joined: 01.21.2011

Jul 19 @ 6:03 PM ET
Are you sure about that?
- PT21


Yeah I am pretty confident. My confidence applies to the current NHL salary cap structure.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 19 @ 6:06 PM ET
Yeah I am pretty confident. My confidence applies to the current NHL salary cap structure.
- mickel25


Let me think about that for a bit ...
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 6:07 PM ET


My problem is, I see no reasonable business plan for the Flyers in the way they are proceeding that results in a cup. I want that changed. That's the paradigm shift I crave.

- PT21


There is a part of this that I agree with. If the Ellis trade and the Hayes signing is a sign of a shift for the Flyers in how they will team build from here on out, then I would agree with you. I personally don't believe that even the best GM can trade and sign a team to cup contention. Now we have to wait and see how much of the future they give up in an attempt to win now. There is a line there. I'm holding out hope that they stay on the right side of that line. I see the Flyers as an improved team for sure but I also see them heading for hockey purgatory. A good team that is not good enough and is capped out and lacks flexibility.

Where we differ is that you think they have to tank to get there and I don't think they do. You think they should trade Couturier. I think they should re-sign him.
DrMidnite
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: False-Positive, Texas
Joined: 12.10.2010

Jul 19 @ 6:10 PM ET
It is very simple, and its nothing specific to hockey.

In anything in life where you have a stake, including probably in your architecture firm if it is large, you have a professional business plan. Business plans are like weather reports. You look at patterns from the past, and extrapolate from that to the future to make predictions.

Are they infallible? No. Are they better than just throwing darts? Hell yeah. We don't know what will happen with Ellis, but we can certainly get likelihoods.

My problem is, I see no reasonable business plan for the Flyers in the way they are proceeding that results in a cup. I want that changed. That's the paradigm shift I crave.

- PT21


I hear that.

We can agree the lead up to our cup winning team (whenever that is) will be very much open to interpretation.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 19 @ 6:11 PM ET
It is very simple, and its nothing specific to hockey.

In anything in life where you have a stake, including probably in your architecture firm if it is large, you have a professional business plan. Business plans are like weather reports. You look at patterns from the past, and extrapolate from that to the future to make predictions.

Are they infallible? No. Are they better than just throwing darts? Hell yeah. We don't know what will happen with Ellis, but we can certainly get likelihoods.

My problem is, I see no reasonable business plan for the Flyers in the way they are proceeding that results in a cup. I want that changed. That's the paradigm shift I crave.

- PT21


Ok. The offseason just began. We shall see what else happens. Save this convo for when the season begins and we know what the roster is. Guessing there will be a couple more moves.

Who does Seattle take?
DrMidnite
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: False-Positive, Texas
Joined: 12.10.2010

Jul 19 @ 6:15 PM ET
Ok. The offseason just began. We shall see what else happens. Save this convo for when the season begins and we know what the roster is. Guessing there will be a couple more moves.

Who does Seattle take?

- Peter Richards


I hope to GOD it's Jake. I just do; and don't necessarily want to take on Tarasenko's contract to move him.

If w can move JVR too? That is a soft re-build I can get behind if we spend the money right!
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 19 @ 6:15 PM ET
Ok. The offseason just began. We shall see what else happens. Save this convo for when the season begins and we know what the roster is. Guessing there will be a couple more moves.

Who does Seattle take?

- Peter Richards


My assessment is sadly completely robust to all roster changes. This is because of salary cap and projections.

I will offer you odds right now for where the Flyers will finish this coming season.

But if you are uninterested, fair enough, in which case you introduce a different topic.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 6:28 PM ET
My assessment is sadly completely robust to all roster changes. This is because of salary cap and projections.

I will offer you odds right now for where the Flyers will finish this coming season.

But if you are uninterested, fair enough, in which case you introduce a different topic.

- PT21



Don't offer odds. Man up and offer an exact prediction. Odds leave room for error. Still have an issue understanding odds in betting and what odds are designed to do.
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 19 @ 6:32 PM ET
First of all and btw, we are just jawing, so don't take any of this personally, even the aggressive parts, as many here mysteriously do.

You mentioned recipe. Do you cook a lot with the philosophy: nah, this doesn't taste right, Lets substitute lemongrass for sugar? Or throw in some vinegar?

In particular, what evidence do we have that Tarasenko will provide the sort of culture change that Voracek apparently contributed negatively to?

- PT21


because eventually you gotta say this recipe keeps turning out like dogpoop and (frank) it throw some lemongrass in there. definition of insanity. it's been 10 years. what evidence do you have its gonna be better WITH him?
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 19 @ 6:38 PM ET
There is a part of this that I agree with. If the Ellis trade and the Hayes signing is a sign of a shift for the Flyers in how they will team build from here on out, then I would agree with you. I personally don't believe that even the best GM can trade and sign a team to cup contention. Now we have to wait and see how much of the future they give up in an attempt to win now. There is a line there. I'm holding out hope that they stay on the right side of that line. I see the Flyers as an improved team for sure but I also see them heading for hockey purgatory. A good team that is not good enough and is capped out and lacks flexibility.

Where we differ is that you think they have to tank to get there and I don't think they do. You think they should trade Couturier. I think they should re-sign him.

- MJL

where the phuck you think they have been the last decade? Headed lol.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 19 @ 6:41 PM ET
There is a part of this that I agree with. If the Ellis trade and the Hayes signing is a sign of a shift for the Flyers in how they will team build from here on out, then I would agree with you. I personally don't believe that even the best GM can trade and sign a team to cup contention. Now we have to wait and see how much of the future they give up in an attempt to win now. There is a line there. I'm holding out hope that they stay on the right side of that line. I see the Flyers as an improved team for sure but I also see them heading for hockey purgatory. A good team that is not good enough and is capped out and lacks flexibility.

Where we differ is that you think they have to tank to get there and I don't think they do. You think they should trade Couturier. I think they should re-sign him.

- MJL



I agree they can’t trade their way to a cup but trades will eventually be a part of that formula to win a cup. They will need to continue to draft, they will need to develop and they will need to get lucky with all 3.

If tk, farabee, lindblom, Sanheim, York, Hart and the Allison’s hit potential, then you have a surprise like O’Brien, adding via fa and trade could give them a shot, as good of a shot as most teams

They could shape this in the next 2 years if it all falls in place. I am ok with a healthy Tarasenko if jake is moving, I am not ok with getting any older than that, If they trade or sign beyond that they need to catch players in the prime. They need to continue to draft and hope to find a Point etc.
THE BLACK HAND
Joined: 06.09.2021

Jul 19 @ 6:44 PM ET
Sorry, you lost me after A and B,
- jd250



NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jul 19 @ 6:44 PM ET
Ok. The offseason just began. We shall see what else happens. Save this convo for when the season begins and we know what the roster is. Guessing there will be a couple more moves.

Who does Seattle take?

- Peter Richards


I agree.

Hard to say for certain. Feels like it might be more than one player if Fletcher cuts a deal(s).

Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jul 19 @ 6:45 PM ET
There is a part of this that I agree with. If the Ellis trade and the Hayes signing is a sign of a shift for the Flyers in how they will team build from here on out, then I would agree with you. I personally don't believe that even the best GM can trade and sign a team to cup contention. Now we have to wait and see how much of the future they give up in an attempt to win now. There is a line there. I'm holding out hope that they stay on the right side of that line. I see the Flyers as an improved team for sure but I also see them heading for hockey purgatory. A good team that is not good enough and is capped out and lacks flexibility.

Where we differ is that you think they have to tank to get there and I don't think they do. You think they should trade Couturier. I think they should re-sign him.

- MJL


So you see flyers as team headed for hockey purgatory… a good team that is NOT good enough….that is capped out…. And lacks flexibility….

So you want to resign the biggest aging about to be highest paid player coots that will keep us in hockey purgatory and is good but not good enough that will get us even more capped out and give us even less flexibility.


Typical flyers fan with head so far up own ass can’t see the light of what they’re actually saying
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 6:51 PM ET
I agree they can’t trade their way to a cup but trades will eventually be a part of that formula to win a cup. They will need to continue to draft, they will need to develop and they will need to get lucky with all 3.

If tk, farabee, lindblom, Sanheim, York, Hart and the Allison’s hit potential, then you have a surprise like O’Brien, adding via fa and trade could give them a shot, as good of a shot as most teams

They could shape this in the next 2 years if it all falls in place. I am ok with a healthy Tarasenko if jake is moving, I am not ok with getting any older than that, If they trade or sign beyond that they need to catch players in the prime. They need to continue to draft and hope to find a Point etc.

- wcorvette


My view has always been that you draft and develop players to get there. Having the stability of home grown players and the benefit of players that grow and develop with each other over a time period, develops real team chemistry and gives you an advantage. You then supplement and fine tune your team with trades and UFA signings once your near that level. We have to wait and see what happens but my fear is that the Flyers are going to try and trade and sign their way there which is a nuance that is different. That rarely works. There was a time back in the Holmgren days where I was all in on the wheeling and dealing. Going for it every year. However hockey evolves and so does knowledge. Back then I would be all in on this trade and other moves. Not any more. I've seen that model fail too many times. Now that there is a cap and a flat cap at that. Flyers are in a real dangerous spot. They will be improved no doubt. They will be more exciting and fun to watch but will they actually be a legit cup contender? I have doubts. My greatest hope is that my doubts will be proven wrong.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jul 19 @ 6:59 PM ET
My view has always been that you draft and develop players to get there. Having the stability of home grown players and the benefit of players that grow and develop with each other over a time period, develops real team chemistry and gives you an advantage. You then supplement and fine tune your team with trades and UFA signings once your near that level. We have to wait and see what happens but my fear is that the Flyers are going to try and trade and sign their way there which is a nuance that is different. That rarely works. There was a time back in the Holmgren days where I was all in on the wheeling and dealing. Going for it every year. However hockey evolves and so does knowledge. Back then I would be all in on this trade and other moves. Not any more. I've seen that model fail too many times. Now that there is a cap and a flat cap at that. Flyers are in a real dangerous spot. They will be improved no doubt. They will be more exciting and fun to watch but will they actually be a legit cup contender? I have doubts. My greatest hope is that my doubts will be proven wrong.
- MJL


I see the Ellis signing as different from the FA signings of JVR and Hayes. The Flyers have a definitive hole in their drafting and developing of a top RHD. For such an important position considering they length of time it takes to develop defenseman, I don’t think there was any better option available.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 7:07 PM ET
I see the Ellis signing as different from the FA signings of JVR and Hayes. The Flyers have a definitive hole in their drafting and developing of a top RHD. For such an important position considering they length of time it takes to develop defenseman, I don’t think there was any better option available.
- NC Flyers Fan


Why did the Flyers sign Kevin Hayes?
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 19 @ 7:11 PM ET
I agree.

Hard to say for certain. Feels like it might be more than one player if Fletcher cuts a deal(s).

- NC Flyers Fan


Everybody keeps saying ghost. Do t think it’ll be him but can’t wait to see. The jake stuff will be interesting to watch.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 19 @ 7:15 PM ET
I see the Ellis signing as different from the FA signings of JVR and Hayes. The Flyers have a definitive hole in their drafting and developing of a top RHD. For such an important position considering they length of time it takes to develop defenseman, I don’t think there was any better option available.
- NC Flyers Fan


Yes or the price was much higher. Am glad no picks were involved. Wanted more from Patrick as I think he could still develop buts no issues with the trade after thinking about it.

But again we know this is not going to be it.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jul 19 @ 7:16 PM ET
Why did the Flyers sign Kevin Hayes?
- MJL


There was a hole at center. Although I thought at the time a short-term stopgap would be sufficient…it turns out due to Patrick’s missed time and now trade that a longer term stopgap was the plan. I hope that works out.

NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jul 19 @ 7:26 PM ET
Yes or the price was much higher. Am glad no picks were involved. Wanted more from Patrick as I think he could still develop buts no issues with the trade after thinking about it.

But again we know this is not going to be it.

- Peter Richards


For sure. Just waiting to see.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 7:42 PM ET
There was a hole at center. Although I thought at the time a short-term stopgap would be sufficient…it turns out due to Patrick’s missed time and now trade that a longer term stopgap was the plan. I hope that works out.
- NC Flyers Fan


Right. A hole is a hole. So while RH defenseman are no doubt a bigger development hole than Center has been, there was still a hole.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 19 @ 7:52 PM ET
My view has always been that you draft and develop players to get there. Having the stability of home grown players and the benefit of players that grow and develop with each other over a time period, develops real team chemistry and gives you an advantage. You then supplement and fine tune your team with trades and UFA signings once your near that level. We have to wait and see what happens but my fear is that the Flyers are going to try and trade and sign their way there which is a nuance that is different. That rarely works. There was a time back in the Holmgren days where I was all in on the wheeling and dealing. Going for it every year. However hockey evolves and so does knowledge. Back then I would be all in on this trade and other moves. Not any more. I've seen that model fail too many times. Now that there is a cap and a flat cap at that. Flyers are in a real dangerous spot. They will be improved no doubt. They will be more exciting and fun to watch but will they actually be a legit cup contender? I have doubts. My greatest hope is that my doubts will be proven wrong.
- MJL


Why I don’t mind Tarasenko for 2 years. Why I want them to keep drafting and developing. I think you can do both with the current make up of the franchise. I don’t want them to try and fix it all this season. I think that would signal a sacrifice that would have long term effects. Now that they have Ellis I don’t want to overpay for another D. If it is a younger D and at a decent price that is fine. Jake out and something similar in, ok. Honestly next year is the year to move jake, I think he has a real good season coming up
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