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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Examining the Ellis Trade: Hockey Impact, Expansion Draft, Cap and More
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landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 18 @ 8:57 AM ET
This was a great hockey trade. Ellis is a great fit for this roster right now. And Chuck is not close to being done. This is a great start from Chuck.

With that said I’m sad to see Myers and Patrick gone. They weren’t excelling but didn’t cost much either. They both were frustrating over the last couple years. So much potential.

But no where close to making the impact the
Ellis can. This is a needle mover.

- peesinwind


You have to trade talent to get talent, even unrealized talent. The Flyers were gifted the 2nd over all pick and whiffed. Myers was Not drafted and the Flyers were able to sign the young physically gifted player without giving up assets…it is what it is, both players were brutal last year…they were the poster children for what went wrong…young players playing with little or no confidence. I have a harder time saying good bye to Myers for sure. I don’t think Patrick will ever be what the Flyers projected him as.
hfc355
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 18 @ 8:58 AM ET
If I were CF I would see if I could sweeten the pot with my 2021 2nd round pick and ask them to pick Jake in the ED. I would not trade my 1st round pick this year, but might be open to trading my 1st next year, because I expect the Flyers to be a hell of a lot better next year so that pick better be in the mid 20s at least.
- jd250

I would definitely give them my 1st. Right now their season depends on Seattle taking JVR or JV. As far as next year goes right now, on paper, they are the 5th best team in the division behind Caps..Pens..Isles..Rangers....and Devils are real close to them.( the later 2 will be making some big additions as both have CAP space to use). Next yrs 1st could be just as high as this yrs.
mr4tno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.29.2017

Jul 18 @ 8:59 AM ET
Just another example of the impatient Flyers walking away from youth for the veteran presence on a long contract. They are trying to get rid Voracek and/or JVR, next year it will probably be Hayes and in three years it will be Ellis. That's the definition of insanity...And still no cups
hfc355
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 18 @ 9:00 AM ET
No idea what Suters plans are but we are in a unique scenario with cap room this year but not the following. Depending on if Seattle takes a bigger contract I’d love to see Fletcher get creative and offer Suter a 1 year, high cap, contract that makes it worth his while. If Sanheim could move to the right side, a top 4 of Provy-Ellis and Suter-Sanheim would be a strong group. I have faith the forwards will bounce back .
- ClaudeFather

Zero chance Suter signs here for 1 yr. Why would he??. He will have his choice of many contending teams and longer term contracts why would he pick Flyers???
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 18 @ 9:00 AM ET
Seattle is asking for a 1st at minimum to take on big money.

And... the Ellis trade seems to indicated that CF is transitioning to win now. Unless there's an affordable Jake replacement out there, it would seem more in keeping with that kind of plan to hang on to your #1 playmaker and top scorer.

- Tomahawk


what, jake has value
BroadSTmayhem
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2012

Jul 18 @ 9:01 AM ET
I don't think it was all that likely to begin with. I think the Flyers remain in the market for physical, shutdown-type for RD2 in addition to at least one/two forwards plus a backup goalie.

Theoretically, though, if there were a left-side D spot need, Suter could fill that for a year or two.

- bmeltzer


Great stuff as always, Bill. Do you thing Oleksiak or Manson are on the Flyers’ radar, and do you think they will try to add some size and toughness to the forward position (after scoring addition[s], of course)?
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 18 @ 9:04 AM ET
Zero chance Suter signs here for 1 yr. Why would he??. He will have his choice of many contending teams and longer term contracts why would he pick Flyers???
- hfc355

Has a relationship with Chuck Fletcher, no one knows what his plans are. I agree he will have plenty of suitors. All I’m pointing out is we could potentially sign a high one year deal and even have a handshake deal to sign him on for another season or two at a low cap hit depending how our cap aligns post ED.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 18 @ 9:05 AM ET
Just another example of the impatient Flyers walking away from youth for the veteran presence on a long contract. They are trying to get rid Voracek and/or JVR, next year it will probably be Hayes and in three years it will be Ellis. That's the definition of insanity...And still no cups
- mr4tno


I’d be upset if the youth they traded weren’t absolutely brutal last year. After watching the Flyers do next to nothing in the last 7 years in comparison to winning teams, I don’t think the word impatient fits.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 18 @ 9:05 AM ET
Voracek is 8th across the ENTIRE NHL in assists across his time in Philadelphia (Giroux is 2nd in the NHL in the same span). He's averaged 0.83 points per game. As long as the offense is spread out across a deep group, as was the case in 2019-20, that's fine.

Will say it again: The Flyers NHL-level issues for the majority of the past seven years stemmed from team-building decisions by the GM, not from failures by Giroux, Voracek or Couturier. They didn't have enough quality pieces around them, because the GM's focus (for understandable reasons) was on a farm system restock and asset collecting.

I'm fine with Voracek moving on. But he's done more good than bad in his time here.

- bmeltzer


you can keep writing it, keep giving data to support it but half the fans can't understand it or more likely don' t want to. The good news, it ensures your HBuzz board will live forever and that is a good thing...
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 18 @ 9:06 AM ET
I would definitely give them my 1st. Right now their season depends on Seattle taking JVR or JV. As far as next year goes right now, on paper, they are the 5th best team in the division behind Caps..Pens..Isles..Rangers....and Devils are real close to them.( the later 2 will be making some big additions as both have CAP space to use). Next yrs 1st could be just as high as this yrs.
- hfc355



Again, if the Kraken select Gostisbehere in the expansion draft, the Flyers have $13,885,477 ($910,000 MORE than they had before the Ellis trade) of cap space; that with also retaining all of their 2021 Draft picks, including the 13th overall pick.

It's enough cap space to get Sanheim and Hart re-signed and add another useful player or two.

Also, a Voracek-for-Tarasenko trade, if such a thing were to happen, would be a $750,000 cap savings ($8.25 M for Voracek vs. $7.5M for Tarasenko) for the Flyers and one less year of term remaining. The flip side being that, while older, Voracek is healthier and has outproduced Tarasenko in terms of points-per-game over the last four years. Such a trade, capwise, wouldn't preclude other moves.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 18 @ 9:07 AM ET
Has a relationship with Chuck Fletcher, no one knows what his plans are. I agree he will have plenty of suitors. All I’m pointing out is we could potentially sign a high one year deal and even have a handshake deal to sign him on for another season or two at a low cap hit depending how our cap aligns post ED.
- ClaudeFather


If he wasn’t asked to play top pair minutes, he’d be a great short term add, while guys like York and Zamula get some experience.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 18 @ 9:07 AM ET
Has a relationship with Chuck Fletcher, no one knows what his plans are. I agree he will have plenty of suitors. All I’m pointing out is we could potentially sign a high one year deal and even have a handshake deal to sign him on for another season or two at a low cap hit depending how our cap aligns post ED.
- ClaudeFather


I think minutes will also play a factor, deep teams that are cup ready probably won't give him the minutes other can. Plus, I think we all know CF is not done, I am sure CF will share the grand plan with Suter if CF wants him.
mr4tno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.29.2017

Jul 18 @ 9:08 AM ET
Jake was #35 amongst NHL forwards in ES P/60 last season. That's ahead of guys like Patrick Kane, Will Nylander, Kyle Connor, Tavares, Debrincat, Point and Aho. He's not a perfect player by any means, but he's still very very effective.
- Tomahawk


Voracek has also been extremely consistent throughout his career. We are not talking Milan Lucic or James Neal here. Only a fool would throw in a 1st rounder for the Kraken to select Voracek. Oh yeah, CF - make that 2 first rounders.....
Bob Habib
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.01.2020

Jul 18 @ 9:11 AM ET
JV for tank, right after the trade freeze is over
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 18 @ 9:13 AM ET
Great stuff as always, Bill. Do you thing Oleksiak or Manson are on the Flyers’ radar, and do you think they will try to add some size and toughness to the forward position (after scoring addition
- BroadSTmayhem[s], of course)?


Manson is signed for next season, so Anaheim isn't forced to move him right now (could see him as a deadline rental). Right now, David Savard (RH, RD, big frame, physical presence, 8th in NHL in blocked shots from 2017-18 through 2020-21) is the guy I'd target as a UFA.

Provorov- Ellis
Sanheim - Savard/Braun
York - Braun/Savard
Hägg as the No. 7

peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 18 @ 9:16 AM ET
You have to trade talent to get talent, even unrealized talent. The Flyers were gifted the 2nd over all pick and whiffed. Myers was Not drafted and the Flyers were able to sign the young physically gifted player without giving up assets…it is what it is, both players were brutal last year…they were the poster children for what went wrong…young players playing with little or no confidence. I have a harder time saying good bye to Myers for sure. I don’t think Patrick will ever be what the Flyers projected him as.
- landros 2


I feel the same way about the players. Myers was playing top 4 minutes and did okay two seasons ago but took a good step back last year. I don’t think the Flyers were giving up on him either but it was like you said. You got to give to get in a trade. They took on more term and AAV but got a much better player.

I’m happy that they have him locked up for years. 6.25 for a top pair RHD like Ellis who pulls in more then 24 min a game in all situations and can pop in 30 plus points a season.

Not gonna lie. I slept like a baby last night. Minus the peeping my diaper. 🤣
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 18 @ 9:16 AM ET
I said yesterday and I will say today lets start by being realistic, they Flyers are going to a win now mode.

that said, I don't add sweeteners unless they are a lower end pick or late mid round and make sense. If your PLAN needs to move Ghost or JVR and it needs a late pick, then do it. I really think the should not but if there is a good plan, sure, you are already all in with the Ellis trade, pot committed. I hope CF is looking at 2 years, not trying to force it all this year. If it all falls in place, great but he still needs patience. Keep your first unless it gets you the asset you need in return. Best case that asset is in their prime. Keep as many of your picks as you can and keep the blue chips in the system. This is where the deep system pays off, you move two young players but you still have depth in the system.

I said this offseason would define CF, his first chance to reshape the team via FA and trades. He is not off to a bad start, it depends on what happens on the ice but on paper he won the trade.
RajaAmpat
Joined: 12.16.2018

Jul 18 @ 9:20 AM ET
If he wasn’t asked to play top pair minutes, he’d be a great short term add, while guys like York and Zamula get some experience.
- landros 2


I think this is a great statement... and could work...

Think about a GM with capanomics and planning for roster transition, slotting players for current an future years..

All 23 + pages yesterday seemed to forget Ellis is really Niskkanen's replacement.. plain and simple the cap hit was 5.75 Million for Niskkanen so 500 K more for Ellis

Myers was undrafted..so Zamula another undrafted hopefully takes Myers intended career path with the Flyers.. similar build..prob not as blessed with overall skills...

York could be the Ghost replacement + more...
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 18 @ 9:22 AM ET
Suter didn't sign with Minnesota because Chuck Fletcher wooed him and they had an especially close relationship. He signed in Minnesota because a) he and Parise both wanted to play together, and b) Suter liked the lifestyle that playing for the Wild afforded him. His wife is from Bloomington.

Below is a transcript excerpt from Jay Greenberg's interview with Paul Holmgren about the 2012 offseason for the Flyers at 50 book. It's covered in the book itself, too.

PH: [We put together the Shea Weber offer sheet] after July 1. On July 1 we were trying to sign Suter and Parise. On July 4 we found out they were going to Minnesota. We changed gears.

JG: How optimistic were you about signing either Suter or Parise?

PH: Never really about Ryan Suter, although I think we got his attention with the offer we made. I don't think I ever talked to Ryan himself but Pronger did and I think Scotty Hartnell did as a representative of the Flyers. We felt pretty good about that. We put out a good offer and he was at least listening.

JG: Any reason why you felt more optimistic about Parise than Suter?

PH: No special reason. We had just heard all along that Ryan wasn't a big city guy. He likes the outdoors where he can hunt and fish. Zach just seemed to be more comfortable than Ryan in a big market city.
mickel25
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Morgantown, PA
Joined: 01.21.2011

Jul 18 @ 9:22 AM ET
Voracek is 8th across the ENTIRE NHL in assists across his time in Philadelphia (Giroux is 2nd in the NHL in the same span). He's averaged 0.83 points per game. As long as the offense is spread out across a deep group, as was the case in 2019-20, that's fine.

Will say it again: The Flyers NHL-level issues for the majority of the past seven years stemmed from team-building decisions by the GM, not from failures by Giroux, Voracek or Couturier. They didn't have enough quality pieces around them, because the GM's focus (for understandable reasons) was on a farm system restock and asset collecting.

I'm fine with Voracek moving on. But he's done more good than bad in his time here.

- bmeltzer


And that is without having a “sniper” on the team at any point. I am also fine with Voracek moving on.
hfc355
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 18 @ 9:23 AM ET
Has a relationship with Chuck Fletcher, no one knows what his plans are. I agree he will have plenty of suitors. All I’m pointing out is we could potentially sign a high one year deal and even have a handshake deal to sign him on for another season or two at a low cap hit depending how our cap aligns post ED.
- ClaudeFather

Again zero chance...at this point even if we over paid $$ arent everything. Sure he can get a good contract from a contender. Someone will sign him for at least 3 yrs as he would be a great 2nd or 3rd pair guy for a contender
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 18 @ 9:24 AM ET
Jake was #35 amongst NHL forwards in ES P/60 last season. That's ahead of guys like Patrick Kane, Will Nylander, Kyle Connor, Tavares, Debrincat, Point and Aho.

He's not a perfect player by any means, but he's still very very effective.

- Tomahawk

Just my opinion, but his deficiencies far out weigh his productiveness!
hfc355
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 18 @ 9:26 AM ET
Again, if the Kraken select Gostisbehere in the expansion draft, the Flyers have $13,885,477 ($910,000 MORE than they had before the Ellis trade) of cap space; that with also retaining all of their 2021 Draft picks, including the 13th overall pick.

It's enough cap space to get Sanheim and Hart re-signed and add another useful player or two.

Also, a Voracek-for-Tarasenko trade, if such a thing were to happen, would be a $750,000 cap savings ($8.25 M for Voracek vs. $7.5M for Tarasenko) for the Flyers and one less year of term remaining. The flip side being that, while older, Voracek is healthier and has outproduced Tarasenko in terms of points-per-game over the last four years. Such a trade, capwise, wouldn't preclude other moves.

- bmeltzer

Wouldnt trade JV for Tarasenko because there appears to be attitude problems there, though maybe warranted,but I would do all I can to get JV off this team. Have seen enough of his lazy lackadasical play. Need to get him out of that locker room
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 18 @ 9:27 AM ET
Again, if the Kraken select Gostisbehere in the expansion draft, the Flyers have $13,885,477 ($910,000 MORE than they had before the Ellis trade) of cap space; that with also retaining all of their 2021 Draft picks, including the 13th overall pick.

It's enough cap space to get Sanheim and Hart re-signed and add another useful player or two.

Also, a Voracek-for-Tarasenko trade, if such a thing were to happen, would be a $750,000 cap savings ($8.25 M for Voracek vs. $7.5M for Tarasenko) for the Flyers and one less year of term remaining. The flip side being that, while older, Voracek is healthier and has outproduced Tarasenko in terms of points-per-game over the last four years. Such a trade, capwise, wouldn't preclude other moves.

- bmeltzer


Yeah that Tarasenko for Jake trade is a risk for a couple years for sure but if Ghost was selected in the ED and that trade was available then Flyers would improve their cap situation sooner rather then later.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 18 @ 9:27 AM ET
Just my opinion, but his deficiencies far out weigh his productiveness!
- jd250



The more emotionally invested one is in a certain team and the longer one watches a particular player, the more the tendency becomes to focus on that player's weaknesses rather than strengths. I would sat that the pros have outweighed the drawbacks with Voracek for most of his 10 years here. I also think a change might be best now for both sides.
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