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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Examining the Ellis Trade: Hockey Impact, Expansion Draft, Cap and More
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hfc355
Joined: 06.17.2013

Jul 19 @ 11:28 AM ET
Bottom line with the mandate to get better for next year the Flyers have done that adding Ellis....will this trade look good in 2 or 3yrs no one knows. Depends on Ellis health and Myers development. The Myers of last year was not good. The Myers of the year before was a very good top 4 D////which Myers will he be. The Canadiens exposing Price will definitely affect the size of the other contracts that Seattle chooses. If they pick Price thats going to make it real easy to get to the CAP floor. Still see them taking HAGG and dont believe they will pick Tarasenko and trade him to Flyers for Voracek unless Flyers really sweeten the deal otherwise take Tarasenko and keep him. If he has a good yr trade at deadline as he will be attractive with only 1 yr remaining
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Jul 19 @ 11:30 AM ET
You tell me. Apparently it was explained to me, I don’t remember anyone saying anything.
- SuperSchennBros


i explained a couple hours ago to you, someone else did at around the same time
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Jul 19 @ 11:31 AM ET
I didn’t see your list. I’ll go back and look but as I stated, some people have better things to do on a Sunday. I don’t know how anyone could think this highly of themselves that people who actually hide online from another Anonymous poster.
- SuperSchennBros

What are you rambling on about just take the L
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 19 @ 11:34 AM ET
You tell me. Apparently it was explained to me, I don’t remember anyone saying anything.
- SuperSchennBros

the fact you responded made my day. thanks.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 19 @ 11:34 AM ET
You do. To the point where ever other post is from you
- SuperSchennBros
omg
false.
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 19 @ 11:36 AM ET
Coots was absolutely a player at 24-25 I would’ve given term/$ contract too. He was already top tier defensive center and showed a slow offensive trend upward. Never expected him to be offensive star but at 24-25 I would’ve been very comfortable giving him the 8 year term. His floor was high enough that if his offense fizzled out some he’d still be worth it or close into his VERY early 30’s then go from there.

Myers obviously type player you don’t do it with. For obvious reasons.

Provy is type player I’d have done 8 year deal on.

Farabee if he takes another step this season I’d lock up 8 years too. The floor on him I think is pretty high. As long as no regression.

Take farabee for example. If we bridge him 2-4 years at say 4-5 mil (as long as good season this year) then what’s his contract look like in a few years. You get into that landeskog type scenario where player approaching very late 20’s almost 30 and more than likely you know there’s chance is given long term you’re gonna not get production on back end. I’d rather identify that player at 24-25 and skip that bridge deal and go the term. The $ will be less in the end and on cap. So farabee if you lock up 8 years 6 mil per year year its a little over early but back end it’s a little under pay. But you’re getting the production for the whole contract. At age 32-33 you then can move on or resign you have options

- Stayin alive


Not everyone wants to get “locked up” - you’re basing your entire plan on every player signing when YOU’RE ready to sign. Not everyone is thinner take a Wayne Simmonds deal where a year or two into their long contract they realize “damn, I could have gotten way more money had I not signed” - some players are happy to wait for the big pay day. A pay day I have no problem giving coots because he can play and I don’t think his limbs magically fall off in his 30s
AngryJoe
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.13.2021

Jul 19 @ 11:36 AM ET
That is a possible way they could go. I don't see it though. I think they believe in Hart. Hart will be given every opportunity to be the guy. He would have to play as poorly as last year for him to be removed as the starter.

We will see.

- mickel25


I think they believe in Hart and will try to bring in a 1/B.

BUT: if you go by Hart’s career so far you gotta use that as part of the equation. He’s had streaks of brilliance and streaks of mediocrity. Mixed in with injuries.

His track record speaks to the lack of duribility and consistency. Elliot wasn’t a great complement IMO because he’s a similar goalie in that regard. He is great when he gets 1/3 of the starts and gets rest. They need a guy who can play a heavy load and is effective in times where Hart is injured or needs a reset. I really like Moose as a 1/B…for a 1/A that is more durable and consistent then Hart has been.
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 19 @ 11:39 AM ET
Not seeing MJL saying that at all. Just trying to analyze the trade is all. You know MJL. He is just trying to look at it from every aspect. That is all I see.
- peesinwind


He said right away this trade was a BIG THUMBS DOWN lol
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 19 @ 11:41 AM ET
I like Meyers too. I thought he could round out to be a solid top 4 dman. However, I feel that this came down to either Sanheim or Meyers. I think the Flyers saw more potential with Sanheim, since they drafted him in the first round, than with Meyers.
- Deasr1


This. Pretty straightforward.
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Jul 19 @ 11:43 AM ET
I've been pretty against trading Voracek, but after some thinking and considering the rumors going around from Anthony SanFilippo I think I may be on board with the Tarasenko move. And the biggest reason is we still have JVR on the team and I think I like our overall scoring balance if Tarasenko is added.

Hypothetical Lines :

Giroux-Couts-Tarasenko
TK-Hayes-Farabee
JVR-Frost-Allison
Oscar-Laughton-NAK/Twarynsk/Laczynski/Sandin/????

I was a little hesitant to pencil in Frost as the 3C because he needs to earn it, but who knows what else Chuck has planned via trades or free agency. Regardless, That's a pretty loaded forward group and the top 3 lines each have a guy who can really put the puck in the net. On top of this, you really can move a lot of these guys up and down the line up barring injuries or even just trying to get a guy / line going.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jul 19 @ 11:46 AM ET
He said right away this trade was a BIG THUMBS DOWN lol
- black_francis

MJL “looking at everything from all angles”
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 19 @ 11:50 AM ET
You just said this. Credibility is flushing down the toilet. May have to add you to the list.

"pretty sure I was referring to your opinions"

- MJL


Just answer the question!
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jul 19 @ 11:53 AM ET
I GUESS when you count the 2 half seasons it does lower his averages doesnt it. 4 years ago he scored his first 30 goal season. He doesnt seem to be slowing down either. Which is weird because he is 2 years away from 30 which is when his entire body will shut down and Coots will suck
- Richieattack18

And I guess Bergy would have more goals over last 2 years if full seasons? Averages are averages. You can’t use factors to just push a narrative. Also coots was born in December. He will be 29 a couple months int THIS season. He missed 20% of games last year. He has had injuries and missed time. Age Father Time is absolutely a consideration as it is for EVERY player. Do you not take any of this into consideration? It seems you do not. It seems you look at it like I’m gonna be positive but not prepare at all for the inevitable. You’re counting on everything going without a hiccup which historically just doesn’t happen. I mean if I’m betting on things like that it’s not a very good player I’m betting on Ov type.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 19 @ 11:54 AM ET
I've been pretty against trading Voracek, but after some thinking and considering the rumors going around from Anthony SanFilippo I think I may be on board with the Tarasenko move. And the biggest reason is we still have JVR on the team and I think I like our overall scoring balance if Tarasenko is added.

Hypothetical Lines :

Giroux-Couts-Tarasenko
TK-Hayes-Farabee
JVR-Frost-Allison
Oscar-Laughton-NAK/Twarynsk/Laczynski/Sandin/????

I was a little hesitant to pencil in Frost as the 3C because he needs to earn it, but who knows what else Chuck has planned via trades or free agency. Regardless, That's a pretty loaded forward group and the top 3 lines each have a guy who can really put the puck in the net. On top of this, you really can move a lot of these guys up and down the line up barring injuries or even just trying to get a guy / line going.

- arichardson22

What is he predicting, Seattle takes Tarasenko and trades him to us for Jake ?
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jul 19 @ 11:59 AM ET
What is he predicting, Seattle takes Tarasenko and trades him to us for Jake ?
- ClaudeFather

Seattle takes stinko
Trades stinko for Jake +pick(not 1st)
Seattle takes hagg in Ed
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 19 @ 12:01 PM ET
I don't see Savard making more than $5M per, he is not an elite defenseman by any means, but a solid and physical player. Thus somewhere around where is he is now in salary is right for him.
- jd250



his in season stats were actually bad, he really upped his value in the Playoffs. I think the projected contract prior was 2 years at 1.6. I like the way he played, tough but elusive when he was pressured. I would not do 5 mil, unless it was a year or 2. Open market someone would probably give him 4X4.5. I think I rather pay up for a shorter term. He is 30 which is not bad but he plays a hard game. If I am him I am getting term and dollars, I just do't think the Flyers should get into that bidding war.
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jul 19 @ 12:03 PM ET
Not everyone wants to get “locked up” - you’re basing your entire plan on every player signing when YOU’RE ready to sign. Not everyone is thinner take a Wayne Simmonds deal where a year or two into their long contract they realize “damn, I could have gotten way more money had I not signed” - some players are happy to wait for the big pay day. A pay day I have no problem giving coots because he can play and I don’t think his limbs magically fall off in his 30s
- black_francis

No I’m basing it on most players want the contract coming out of elc or 1st small bridge deal. It’s always the club that wants a bridge deal or prove it deal to save on cap. For example when farabee is up after next year philly will bridge him or tk…. Signed tk 5/25 bridge. Philly wanted shorter deal tk sat out to force longer deal. If tk is a piece you go long term. Like farabee will be.


I’m not saying do this with everyone and you better be pretty sure they’re identified as a core piece going forward. If ANY doubt you bridge.
Levit8
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gilbert, AZ
Joined: 07.24.2015

Jul 19 @ 12:24 PM ET
MJL “looking at everything from all angles”
- hereticpride


I giggled at that one too.
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Jul 19 @ 12:26 PM ET
And I guess Bergy would have more goals over last 2 years if full seasons? Averages are averages. You can’t use factors to just push a narrative. Also coots was born in December. He will be 29 a couple months int THIS season. He missed 20% of games last year. He has had injuries and missed time. Age Father Time is absolutely a consideration as it is for EVERY player. Do you not take any of this into consideration? It seems you do not. It seems you look at it like I’m gonna be positive but not prepare at all for the inevitable. You’re counting on everything going without a hiccup which historically just doesn’t happen. I mean if I’m betting on things like that it’s not a very good player I’m betting on Ov type.
- Stayin alive

You were talking about Coots goals per year average. I said of course it will be lower because of 2 short covid seasons. If he finishes last season its another 30+ goal campaign. The year before he had 22 in the short Covid season. Reading comprehension goes a long way towards discourse. You'll understand when you get older.

As far as injuries. Why would any team have players in their 30s if the only thing they worry about is injuries? Guess Tampa should get rid of Hedman and Stamkos ASAP. Guess Capitals gotta get rid of OV and Pens gotta buyout Crosby. Injuries are a part of the game. You don't just succumb to mediocrity and not employ good/great players because they are past 30 and might get injured. Hell, the Flyers injury issues have been more so with young players than old players the last how many years. Myers, Patrick, Morin, Frost... Injuries happen at all ages it's the (frank)ing NHL
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 1:15 PM ET
When you use Sucks, just capitalize the 'S', not the whole word. Otherwise the capitalization looses its whole meaning :-)

I don't agree with you about Coburn, I actually hated him too and was happy when the Flyers finally traded him to Tampa. So my objective was not to say Myers' upside is a top pairing guy, because I didn't think Coburn was anywhere close to a top pairing guy. I do believe the ceiling for Myers is borderline 2nd pairing, but as I said this will be very hard for him to do given what I think his deficiencies are.

- jd250


Well that explains a lot. Coburn was very good as a Flyer. I stated a top pairing compliment. Give me a break with S part. You frequently used the entire word.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 1:16 PM ET
Worse than that, when the opposing player was left all along to score in the crease, Myers was somewhere up at the blueline chasing the previous puck carrier around the rink. It was tragic, but at the same time somewhat comical. Honestly, I have played with high school defenseman that made better coverage decisions than Myers did last year, and that is plain sad.
- jd250


You should post some video highlights of some of these goals. The we can look at them and break it down.
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jul 19 @ 1:35 PM ET
You were talking about Coots goals per year average. I said of course it will be lower because of 2 short covid seasons. If he finishes last season its another 30+ goal campaign. The year before he had 22 in the short Covid season. Reading comprehension goes a long way towards discourse. You'll understand when you get older.

As far as injuries. Why would any team have players in their 30s if the only thing they worry about is injuries? Guess Tampa should get rid of Hedman and Stamkos ASAP. Guess Capitals gotta get rid of OV and Pens gotta buyout Crosby. Injuries are a part of the game. You don't just succumb to mediocrity and not employ good/great players because they are past 30 and might get injured. Hell, the Flyers injury issues have been more so with young players than old players the last how many years. Myers, Patrick, Morin, Frost... Injuries happen at all ages it's the (frank)ing NHL

- Richieattack18


Exactly hedman stamkos Ov sid.

ALL GONNA BE IN HALL OF FAME.

You do understand the difference between risk for hall of fame talent vs good or even very good talent right?
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 19 @ 1:55 PM ET
Well he is the smartest guy in the room.

You can analyze the trade numerous diff ways.

- hello it's me 2050


whew.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 19 @ 1:57 PM ET
Every offensive player cuts defensive corners and cheats to get an advantage going the other way. Some get more leeway than others, but by and large, it's what needs to be done to score in a tight checking league.

Its funny that the same people who complain ad nauseum about Jake are probably the same people who complain that the Flyers always draft two-way players who won't take a risk like Laughts/Rubtstov/etc.

Making plays = taking chances.

- Tomahawk


Kucherov cheats all the time. But the problem is, if you cheat like that, you better make those plays, and your team better be able to allow for such cheating, and in both those measures, Jake probably doesn't fit the bill.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 19 @ 2:05 PM ET
Well you disappeared real fast once I gave the list of all the old washed up players that suck balls in their 30s which was weird because somehow when a player hits 30 they just start to be terrible hockey players.
- Richieattack18


No. They tend to slow down. As did many of the players on your "list"
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