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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Examining the Ellis Trade: Hockey Impact, Expansion Draft, Cap and More
Author Message
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jul 19 @ 1:55 AM ET
Maybe the disconnect is what people believe a players most productive prime is. I believe it’s now like 24-29 where it used to be like 27-32. The game is so fast now players can’t possibly go at that pace as they reach end of 20’s early 30’s and dominate like their mid 20’s anymore the body loses the step quicker now. There’s little to no slow pace to nhl anymore. No holding players up no taking it easy on a shift. If they do it really shows and gets exposed. Sure players can use their smarts and experience to mask certain flaws to an extent on ice but all in all the speed and youth is taking over more and more at early age. My god hart was playing at how old? Unheard of and will start to be more frequent
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Jul 19 @ 3:00 AM ET
A couple points here… coots is a better scorer? 375 career goals to 174. You think coots getting 200 more goals over next 7 years to make up the year difference? More than likely not.

Yes players CAN be worthy of big contract in their early 30’s. That’s not what we’re talking about I’m absolutely 100% fine giving coots 8-9 mil over next 4-maybe 5 years. But he’s probably gonna want 7-8 year deal. NO ONE is getting that type $ at 36-37-38 years old unless they are hall of fame player elite generational player. If that.
The problem with coots is he was underpayed on his last contract. He’s gonna cash in. Which he absolutely should do if he can. Name one player age 36-38 you’d give 8-9 mil on 3 year deal in league now?

- Stayin alive

Coots is 7 years younger of course he has less goals are you dense

I'm saying at this point in his career, Coots is a bigger offensive threat than Bergeron was. Bergerons career high in goals is 32. Coots is 7 years younger and has surpassed that already. He has very similar seasons to Bergeron at the same age. You don't trade someone like that.
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Jul 19 @ 3:05 AM ET
Maybe the disconnect is what people believe a players most productive prime is. I believe it’s now like 24-29 where it used to be like 27-32. The game is so fast now players can’t possibly go at that pace as they reach end of 20’s early 30’s and dominate like their mid 20’s anymore the body loses the step quicker now. There’s little to no slow pace to nhl anymore. No holding players up no taking it easy on a shift. If they do it really shows and gets exposed. Sure players can use their smarts and experience to mask certain flaws to an extent on ice but all in all the speed and youth is taking over more and more at early age. My god hart was playing at how old? Unheard of and will start to be more frequent
- Stayin alive

Suter, Burns, Kopitar, Kessel, Pavelski, Vlasic, Kane, Jordan Staal, Giroux, Backstrom, Stastny, Greene, Doughty, Krejci, Giordano, Edler, Bailey, Wheeler, Benn, Letang, Oshie, Stalman, Pacioretti, Marchand, Carlson, Karlsson, Chara, Leddy, Eberle, Couture, Backlund, Petry, McDonaugh, Spurgeon, Josi, Martinez, Dillon, Muzzin, Killorn, Tatar, Atkinson, Savard, Cole, Ekholm, Maroon, Rask, Bellemare, Radulov, Hedman, Pietrangelo, Ovechkin, Crosby, Stamkos... etc...

Yeah clearly players just start to suck when they hit 30
goenzoy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 04.11.2014

Jul 19 @ 3:20 AM ET
Hagg is barely an NHL defenseman, he was drafted in the same year Morin was. He has ZERO upside! Francis is not stupid and is not going to waste his pick on a nothing player. Its JVR, mark it down!
- jd250


Hagg is a clearly a NHL defenseman and top teams even need at least 7 D Man at any given point
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

Jul 19 @ 4:02 AM ET
My problem is the game is going younger and younger. Honestly you have to identify you’re young core and pay them earlier and longer and you better be right about them. Look at Matthews for example. Leafs wanted to go longer term. Player didn’t so he could get 2 huge deals and then some. The game has changed. The teams that adapt will thrive. If coots was the future at 24-25 they should’ve went big on his deal then. What’s he getting 4 mil? Maybe if they paid him more he wouldn’t be looking to break bank now? There’s no way he resigns here for less than 7 years 8-9 mil per. What if coots puts up something like 25 goals 35-40 assist this year? 60-65 points? Even say he puts up 70… is that worth 8-9 mil? Even with good defensive play? Now at 6 mil per year I can go along with. Pay him maybe a little less value next few years and overpay a bit toward end of deal. I don’t think he takes that tho. Last thing I want is for him to walk at end of year and get nothing. That’s the worst asset management possible. He might not even want to sign here. Who knows. Then what? Just get what you can? At deadline? Horrible asset management.
- Stayin alive


I think horrible asset management is giving unproven players these large long term contracts simply guessing how good they will be. Was there a guarantee Coots was going to be this good and win a selke when he was 24-25? How big of a contract would you have given Myers lol?
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ersson-Ville, NB, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Jul 19 @ 6:01 AM ET
Could this actually be true? If so if I'm CF I go get Landeskog. I start with a package of TK and my 2021 1st round pick, and I sign Landeskog to a $8M x 8 year deal. This is too good a player to pass up if I am the Flyers.
- jd250


Isn’t he going to be a ufa? I’d wait rather than give up assets. If you can’t sign him move on.
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 19 @ 7:26 AM ET
Is Ellis damaged goods? Does Nashville know this? Does Philly know this? Was this move made to placate the Flyers fans? Make it appear they're improving the team by bringing in a known name? I'm not saying any of those are true but there is something odd about this trade as you mention.

As I said earlier, Nashville wouldn't just give away a supposed star #1 RHD for Patrick and Glass? Would they?

- dubc55


Conspiracy. 😆

They will need cap space and have a tone of young talented D. Plus the salary dump moves are difficult right now. No big conspiracy
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 7:38 AM ET
MJL, your pretty smart. It’s gonna cost them for Fabro. I think they are looking long term with him. They are also eating some buy outs too.

I could see them moving Ellis to open up ice time for their young talented D guys. But they traded away a much better RHD then Myers. They didn’t get the better players. They did open up the most cap space.

Edit: meant the pretty smart as a complement. Not sarcasm. 😆

- peesinwind


I personally think that they moved him due to the term on his contract and his injury history. Fabro is not going to get a big deal. Again, they didn't need to move Ellis for cap reasons.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 19 @ 7:39 AM ET
Hagg is a clearly a NHL defenseman and top teams even need at least 7 D Man at any given point
- goenzoy

Last season Hagg hardly dressed for what turned out to be the worst defensive in the league. Doesn't this fact tell you something about Hagg?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 7:43 AM ET
Nashville protected 5 D-men 3 forwards.
I think they are the only team to do this.

Unloading Ellis and his 6 years remaining contract played a role in the Flyers giving up only Myers and Patrick.

They have 18-19 players who are RFA or FA this summer and next summer.

Including needing a backup goalie for Saros this summer and losing a player in the expansion draft. That makes it about 20 players they need to resign or replace.

Nashville wanted the cap space. They have a ton of moves/signings to deal with.

- Captain_Ahab


Majority of which are minor league signings and have zero to do with needing cap space for the NHL roster. They did not need the cap space. They have plenty even with Ellis to do what they needed to do.


MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 7:47 AM ET
Nonsense, its not going to happen. If these are such good players, then why don't either of them play good?? And don't give me crap that they are still young. There are too many young players (19,20 and 21 years old) that come into this league and light it up for me to be worried about their potential. I for one am sick of potential, and would rather watch good players play hockey!
- jd250


If you as a fan can see that Myers becoming a good player is nonsense, why can't Poile see that. Why would he trade a really good defenseman for Myers if that is the case?
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 19 @ 7:47 AM ET
I personally think that they moved him due to the term on his contract and his injury history. Fabro is not going to get a big deal. Again, they didn't need to move Ellis for cap reasons.
- MJL


Well, that is a valid theory. Though everything (Injuries) are not the ones you worry about a career ended. Even the surgery was minor. But they have many talented young D that can step in. They are loaded for sure.

Fabro is a talent that they may want to buy out some UFA on while he will be cheaper.

If you look at cap friendly they have a tone of expiring contracts this year and next. They will absolutely need to be cap concerned over the next couple years. You maybe right about the term worry but the theory of the cap management I feel is a factor.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 19 @ 7:47 AM ET
I personally think that they moved him due to the term on his contract and his injury history. Fabro is not going to get a big deal. Again, they didn't need to move Ellis for cap reasons.
- MJL

Well, yes Nashville can fit Ellis under the cap, but if you look at Nashville's cap allocation by position (forward vs. defense) before they traded Ellis, given they are extending Ekholm and would have to resign Fabbro unless he is lost in the ED or traded, Nashville would be spending a lot of money on defense, maybe more than they would want to. Ekholm is going to get something in the $6M range for say 5 years, and you have Josi for $9M for another 5 years, and depending on who they obtain to augment their D, this gets their cap allocation for defense back to a more reasonable level. For the Flyers, assuming they augment their D with a FA, they will have 3 Dmen in the $5-6M range and they augment with younger, cheaper Dmen, so this works out well for the Flyers also. So my point is more about cap allocation per position.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 19 @ 7:51 AM ET
If you as a fan can see that Myers becoming a good player is nonsense, why can't Poile see that. Why would he trade a really good defenseman for Myers if that is the case?
- MJL

That's what a lot of pundits are asking right now, i.e. why didn't Poile get more for a player like Ellis? Nashville fans are not happy about this trade, I can tell you that. A lot of them feel this was a panic move by Poile. Some believe Ellis is hurt more than we know and Nashville is getting out from under his contract while they can. I can only hope CF and his staff did their homework and Ellis can play out his contract at a high level. No one I have read considers Myers a slam dunk to to develop into a top 4 Dman. There is a lot of risk here from both sides.
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 19 @ 7:53 AM ET
Majority of which are minor league signings and have zero to do with needing cap space for the NHL roster. They did not need the cap space. They have plenty even with Ellis to do what they needed to do.
- MJL


There are a lot of pretty good prices expiring after next year also. Forsberg, Kunin, Ekholm are all expiring after this season. They will take it to the cap limit or pretty close this year even after moving Ellis.

Not saying that is why they moved him but it most likely plays a part.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 7:54 AM ET
Well, that is a valid theory. Though everything (Injuries) are not the ones you worry about a career ended. Even the surgery was minor. But they have many talented young D that can step in. They are loaded for sure.

Fabro is a talent that they may want to buy out some UFA on while he will be cheaper.

If you look at cap friendly they have a tone of expiring contracts this year and next. They will absolutely need to be cap concerned over the next couple years. You maybe right about the term worry but the theory of the cap management I feel is a factor.

- peesinwind


I'm not worried about career ending injuries. I'm worried about him missing significant time every season. You keep referencing that they have a ton of expiring contracts and ignore the kind of players they are. With a few exceptions, they are older, cheaper players. They didn't need to move him for cap reasons.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 7:56 AM ET
That's what a lot of pundits are asking right now, i.e. why didn't Poile get more for a player like Ellis? Nashville fans are not happy about this trade, I can tell you that. A lot of them feel this was a panic move by Poile. Some believe Ellis is hurt more than we know and Nashville is getting out from under his contract while they can. I can only hope CF and his staff did their homework and Ellis can play out his contract at a high level. No one I have read considers Myers a slam dunk to to develop into a top 4 Dman. There is a lot of risk here from both sides.
- jd250


We're not talking about Myers being a slam dunk. We're talking about your statement that there is no chance that he will become a good player. Again, if you, joe schmo fan can see that, why can't Poile? Why couldn't he get a better deal for what is a top pairing, very good RH NHL defenseman?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 7:57 AM ET
Well, yes Nashville can fit Ellis under the cap, but if you look at Nashville's cap allocation by position (forward vs. defense) before they traded Ellis, given they are extending Ekholm and would have to resign Fabbro unless he is lost in the ED or traded, Nashville would be spending a lot of money on defense, maybe more than they would want to. Ekholm is going to get something in the $6M range for say 5 years, and you have Josi for $9M for another 5 years, and depending on who they obtain to augment their D, this gets their cap allocation for defense back to a more reasonable level. For the Flyers, assuming they augment their D with a FA, they will have 3 Dmen in the $5-6M range and they augment with younger, cheaper Dmen, so this works out well for the Flyers also. So my point is more about cap allocation per position.
- jd250


Ellis is better than Ekholm. Ellis is RH. Why didn't they trade Ekholm instead? Ellis is cost controlled and under contract. Ekholm could walk.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 19 @ 8:01 AM ET
Saw this comment from someone at the bottom of an article I was reading, I thought it was a very interesting scenario, drat, I lost it from my buffer, oh well, the gist of it was:

1. Seattle trades for Tarasenko
2. They then flip Tarasenko to the Flyers for Jake + a 2nd or 3rd round pick
3. Seattle selects Hagg in the ED

What do you think of this? For me, if Tarasenko was healthy and motivated to play as well as he did during the St. Louis cup run, I would definitely consider this trade.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 19 @ 8:03 AM ET
Ellis is better than Ekholm. Ellis is RH. Why didn't they trade Ekholm instead? Ellis is cost controlled and under contract. Ekholm could walk.
- MJL

Yes, another good question that could lead one to conclude Ellis is not going to play out his contract because he is more injured than we know.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 8:03 AM ET
Saw this comment from someone at the bottom of an article I was reading, I thought it was a very interesting scenario, drat, I lost it from my buffer, oh well, the gist of it was:

1. Seattle trades for Tarasenko
2. They then flip Tarasenko to the Flyers for Jake + a 2nd or 3rd round pick
3. Seattle selects Hagg in the ED

What do you think of this? For me, if Tarasenko was motivated to play as well as he did during the St. Louis cup run, I would definitely consider this trade.

- jd250


Yep, let's add another player with significant injury worries to the mix. What could go wrong?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 19 @ 8:04 AM ET
Yes, another good question that could lead one to conclude Ellis is not going to play out his contract because he is more injured than we know.
- jd250


Here is what the Nashville blogger wrote who predicted that Ellis would be moved by the Preds. Take it with the usual grain of salt.



(This is a tough one. He seems to have lost his touch lately. Getting slower, no longer the dominant force he was before and the young stud we remember from leading the point for Team Canada and Windsor. I still have faith, but this one is on the edge for me. He’s under contract until he’s 37. If he's slow at 30, then well 37 doesn’t seem to look good, unless we suddenly get some Benjamin Button stuff going on).”
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 19 @ 8:07 AM ET
Yep, let's add another player with significant injury worries to the mix. What could go wrong?
- MJL

Yes there is a lot of risk here for the Flyers, plus, not to pick on Russian players, but many of them do seem to lack motivation once they win or get paid. I don't know Tarasenko in terms of what kind of professional he is, but he has played only 34 games over the last 2 season, that has to be a factor into the decision process.
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Jul 19 @ 8:09 AM ET
Here is what the Nashville blogger wrote who predicted that Ellis would be moved by the Preds. Take it with the usual grain of salt.



(This is a tough one. He seems to have lost his touch lately. Getting slower, no longer the dominant force he was before and the young stud we remember from leading the point for Team Canada and Windsor. I still have faith, but this one is on the edge for me. He’s under contract until he’s 37. If he's slow at 30, then well 37 doesn’t seem to look good, unless we suddenly get some Benjamin Button stuff going on).”

- MJL


pretty sure that was similar to what they wrote about niskanen. And Ellis is better than nisk was at that point. Seems you've moved on from meyers is really good, to why would nashville trade ellis. This trade is done, lets move on to the next topic like who are we drafting lol. We keeping the pick?
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 19 @ 8:11 AM ET
I'm not worried about career ending injuries. I'm worried about him missing significant time every season. You keep referencing that they have a ton of expiring contracts and ignore the kind of players they are. With a few exceptions, they are older, cheaper players. They didn't need to move him for cap reasons.
- MJL


I think we are in no worse if not a better cap situation then the Preds right now and Flyers are trying to move cap. People want to make moves and better their clubs. Preds we’re going to have a ton of cap on their blue line. They are talented there fir sure.

He does have a track record of missing time. He is no Provy in that respect. He is more skilled then Provy right now. Just a super smart player.
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