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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Examining the Ellis Trade: Hockey Impact, Expansion Draft, Cap and More
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Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 18 @ 4:51 PM ET
So you're basing it on what you believe? What is this belief based on since Ellis has only scored 40 or more points once in his career?
- MJL


Technically only once, but I think we can acknowledge that 19-20 and 17-18 would have been pretty incredible years for him had he not missed so much time.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 18 @ 4:56 PM ET
Technically only once, but I think we can acknowledge that 19-20 and 17-18 would have been pretty incredible years for him had he not missed so much time.
- Tomahawk


In a previous post, I stated that injuries were a factor in his career point totals. Can we expect him not to miss a significant number of games over his Flyers career?
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 18 @ 5:00 PM ET
Dunno, the cap rising didn't exactly make AMac's contract any less odious toward the end. Not saying Ellis is Amac, just saying that 6M+ will always be a big % of the cap. AMac's 5M cap hit would still be a nasty albatross, even today.
- Tomahawk


Yeah, but AMac?

Ellis at his current cap hit is infinitely better and more valuable than AMac ever was.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 18 @ 5:01 PM ET
I think we both agree. Up to this point all his success was in his 20’s because that is all he played in the NHL. But I know what you mean. I was just kidding. I know what you meant.

But many Defenders play some of their best hockey into their 30’s. I’m hoping your wrong of course because I drink the Flyers’ cool aid like my favorite beer.

- peesinwind

At least you admit it. I like Ryan Ellis but I’m going to need to see what the next move is. As it stands, this move isn’t that great.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 18 @ 5:01 PM ET
In a previous post, I stated that injuries were a factor in his career point totals. Can we expect him not to miss a significant number of games over his Flyers career?
- MJL


IIRC he's not continually missing time over the same kind of injury. It's been a mixture of different things, and Corey Perry's flying elbow.

So I don't think we can really predict how healthy or unhealthy he'll be, either way.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 18 @ 5:03 PM ET
At least you admit it. I like Ryan Ellis but I’m going to need to see what the next move is. As it stands, this move isn’t that great.
- SuperSchennBros


It's actually pretty great if your goal is to win immediately.

I just don't think this team is really ready to win immediately yet.
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 18 @ 5:04 PM ET
Nashville has plenty of cap space. They didn't make this deal because they needed the space.
- MJL


Just over 26M with 4 UFAs and 5 RFAs. And that is after they just dumped almost 4 M on defense.

They will lose a player to Seattle in the ED.

I wouldn’t say they have plenty of space.

The Flyers have almost 10m with one UFA and one RFA. And that is after the trade.

I think most teams are struggling in cap right now.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 18 @ 5:04 PM ET
Yeah, but AMac?

Ellis at his current cap hit is infinitely better and more valuable than AMac ever was.

- MBFlyerfan


There's no doubt about that. But 6-years is a long time. Who knows what he'll look like in years 4, 5, and 6.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jul 18 @ 5:06 PM ET
It's actually pretty great if your goal is to win immediately.

I just don't think this team is really ready to win immediately yet.

- Tomahawk

i think this is an extremely fair way of looking at it.
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 18 @ 5:07 PM ET
At least you admit it. I like Ryan Ellis but I’m going to need to see what the next move is. As it stands, this move isn’t that great.
- SuperSchennBros


You mean if this is the only move your not happy?

I can see that. I’m on board.

But this trade was a good trade for sure.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 18 @ 5:08 PM ET
IIRC he's not continually missing time over the same kind of injury. It's been a mixture of different things, and Corey Perry's flying elbow.

So I don't think we can really predict how healthy or unhealthy he'll be, either way.

- Tomahawk


Can you ever predict it? The more I look at this deal the more I wonder why Nashville made it.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 18 @ 5:08 PM ET
So there is no right side of 30? Think the wrong side of 30 would be over 35 lol. 30 is young. Stop being nuts.
- Richieattack18

I have news for you. The NHL started favoring players under 30. Players like John LeClair and Tony Amonte went into a complete decline at 31. Claude Giroux now at 32, 33 is really good but he’s now remotely what he was.
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Jul 18 @ 5:10 PM ET
You mean if this is the only move your not happy?

I can see that. I’m on board.

But this trade was a good trade for sure.

- peesinwind

Good thing Fletcher has flat out said there will be multiple exciting additions to the team this season. I highly doubt he is finished. Just gotta wait for ED to be over for him to make the next move
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 18 @ 5:10 PM ET
It's actually pretty great if your goal is to win immediately.

I just don't think this team is really ready to win immediately yet.

- Tomahawk

It’s no different than the Niskanen move if you’re trying to win now. I thought our team two years ago was much better.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 18 @ 5:11 PM ET
You mean if this is the only move your not happy?

I can see that. I’m on board.

But this trade was a good trade for sure.

- peesinwind

Yes
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 18 @ 5:12 PM ET
Just over 26M with 4 UFAs and 5 RFAs. And that is after they just dumped almost 4 M on defense.

They will lose a player to Seattle in the ED.

I wouldn’t say they have plenty of space.

The Flyers have almost 10m with one UFA and one RFA. And that is after the trade.

I think most teams are struggling in cap right now.

- peesinwind


Look at the players. Other than Saros and to a lesser extent Fabro, it's low cap hit players. They have plenty of space and didn't need to trade Ellis for cap reasons.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jul 18 @ 5:12 PM ET
Can you ever predict it? The more I look at this deal the more I wonder why Nashville made it.
- MJL

theyre in an odd spot for sure.

unless they really think the wheels will fall off in two years and want to get out now. or they really are believers in myers long term. asset wise to me its a poor return. they didnt even make the flyers kick in any draft capital.
THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Jul 18 @ 5:12 PM ET
It's actually pretty great if your goal is to win immediately.

I just don't think this team is really ready to win immediately yet.

- Tomahawk

2-3 years i heard eons ago. 🤗
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Jul 18 @ 5:15 PM ET
I have news for you. The NHL started favoring players under 30. Players like John LeClair and Tony Amonte went into a complete decline at 31. Claude Giroux now at 32, 33 is really good but he’s now remotely what he was.
- SuperSchennBros

Do I need to make a list of current day players over 30 that are playing some incredible hockey? Giroux of course isnt a top 5 player in the world anymore, but he is still damn good. Not every player is the same. To think that every player once they turn 30 will turn into poop is laughable. 30 is young. Calm down
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 18 @ 5:15 PM ET
It's actually pretty great if your goal is to win immediately.

I just don't think this team is really ready to win immediately yet.

- Tomahawk


Yeah. If your in the rebuild team then this trade may not make sense.

Like I said. I drink the cool aid. Go for it Flyers. Go for it! Love me my Orange and Black googles. It’s more fun this way.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 18 @ 5:16 PM ET
Do I need to make a list of current day players over 30 that are playing some incredible hockey? Giroux of course isnt a top 5 player in the world anymore, but he is still damn good. Not every player is the same. To think that every player once they turn 30 will turn into poop is laughable. 30 is young. Calm down
- Richieattack18

Actually I do think you should make a list. Keep in mind, Ellis isn’t a future Hall of famer or a contender for the Norris. So be careful with your list.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 18 @ 5:20 PM ET
theyre in an odd spot for sure.

unless they really think the wheels will fall off in two years and want to get out now. or they really are believers in myers long term. asset wise to me its a poor return. they didnt even make the flyers kick in any draft capital.

- stayinthefnnet


I'm personally a big fan of Myers. I think last year was an outlier for him and for the team as a whole. Some are not fans of Myers. I get that. So does Nashville really think Myers is going to be really good? Possible. In terms of current level of play, Nashville couldn't do better than this deal on the open market for a player like Ellis? They went the 4-4 route in the ED. They didn't trade him for cap or ED reasons.
Richieattack18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Girouxsalem
Joined: 07.13.2010

Jul 18 @ 5:20 PM ET
Actually I do think you should make a list. Keep in mind, Ellis isn’t a future Hall of famer or a contender for the Norris. So be careful with your list.
- SuperSchennBros

Nobody said Ellis is a hall of famer. But I will quickly embarrass you. Let me make a list The whole point is people like you female dog about every player that is 30 saying that they will suck balls because they are way too old when it's just a completely false sense of reality.
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 18 @ 5:21 PM ET
Look at the players. Other than Saros and to a lesser extent Fabro, it's low cap hit players. They have plenty of space and didn't need to trade Ellis for cap reasons.
- MJL


MJL, your pretty smart. It’s gonna cost them for Fabro. I think they are looking long term with him. They are also eating some buy outs too.

I could see them moving Ellis to open up ice time for their young talented D guys. But they traded away a much better RHD then Myers. They didn’t get the better players. They did open up the most cap space.

Edit: meant the pretty smart as a complement. Not sarcasm. 😆
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 18 @ 5:22 PM ET
It will probably be at least 5 years before Philly will be a serious contender. If Myers develops like Nashville thinks he will, it would be nice to have him.
- Minnyhock


In 5 years time, we will have Couts: 33/34, Hayes 34/35 and Ellis 35/36. Together, they will account for at least 22m. They will by that time (very likely) not be top line or top pairing.

Given the revenue losses incurred recently, cap in 5 years is likely to be about say 88m.

Name me one team that has been serious contenders with 25% of the cap devoted to 3 players in mid 30s not playing top line/pairing.
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