I said i thought provy bee and those players were good picks. But its the 1st round misses that i dont like. I didnt say they were more promising than any of them. You keep trying to change my wording. If hextall didnt have those awful first round misses, i would be happy. and JOB was a reach and a miss. makes it even worse. No one had him rated that high, but Hextall thinks he knows better and it shows he doesnt.
- bradster

Let's dispense with this right now.

https://hockeybuzz.com/bo...?thread_id=173066&page=15

"Might be too soon for some to judge Fletchers drafts. But I will, i think they look more promising than Hextalls."

No, not because I say so. You hilariously claim that York and Foerster show more promise than Hextall's picks. My claims are based on the evidence. I counter with Provorov, Konecny, Sanheim and Farabee who are already in the NHL compared to York who has played a grand total of 3 NHL games

There is evidence with Hextall. He put both Provorov and Konecny directly in the NHL straight out of juniors at 19 years of age.

My opinion is based on the facts. Although you are certainly entitled to an opinion, it is not based on facts. The facts do not support your opinion. They support mine.
- MJL

I think we are losing sight of the original point of this discussion. MJL is clearly correct that right now we can't say that any of Fletcher's picks are more impactful that Hextall's because they simply have not played enough or any games at the NHL level so far. My original point was only that it appears to me these kids are moving up the development path much faster than Hextall's picks. Now that could strictly be because of philosophical differences between Fletcher and Hextall, but it also could be that the kids Fletcher has drafted are just better suited for today's NHL. Only time will tell which is correct.

Its a miss so far, but he can change it. For you not to consider that a miss makes me wonder how you are judging to protect hextall. He is the highest drafted player that year to not yet play an NHL game, so it sure doesnt look good. But you can judge how you want. He is clearly a miss right now.
- bradster

That's again, incorrect. It is unknown at this time.

No, not because I say so. You hilariously claim that York and Foerster show more promise than Hextall's picks. My claims are based on the evidence. I counter with Provorov, Konecny, Sanheim and Farabee who are already in the NHL compared to York who has played a grand total of 3 NHL games

There is evidence with Hextall. He put both Provorov and Konecny directly in the NHL straight out of juniors at 19 years of age.

My opinion is based on the facts. Although you are certainly entitled to an opinion, it is not based on facts. The facts do not support your opinion. They support mine.
- MJL

Provy was ready the year before, Hextall didnt move him up. Bob McKenzie was saying the same thing at the time.

2. Regarding the example you choose, of the 7 games VGK-Habs series, in any single instance of a game, a series, a coin flip, anything can happen. But anything can happen does not mean everything is equally likely! There are degrees of likelihood even in that single instance. You are conflating anything can happen with everything is likely to happen.


- PT21

This is completely false. There is nothing in his statement saying anything is likely to happen. He clearly stated as his main premise in his reply that despite the odds, anything can happen in a 7 game series. It was made very clear.

new blob

Provy was ready the year before, Hextall didnt move him up. Bob McKenzie was saying the same thing at the time.
- bradster

So how does that show in anyway that Fletcher is quicker to move a player up? Again, Hextall placed both Provorov and Konecny in the NHL at 19. What player has Fletcher placed in the NHL at 18?

That's again, incorrect. It is unknown at this time.
- MJL

Disagree, he is a miss, hasn't played a game when everyone else has. But he can change that. I think you think once labeled that, it cant be changed, but i say it can lol
Even look at Pronmans flyers prospect rankings, JOB isnt in the top 10, below brink, attard, and cates, but you certainly can disagree with us both if you want.

So how does that show in anyway that Fletcher is quicker to move a player up? Again, Hextall placed both Provorov and Konecny in the NHL at 19. What player has Fletcher placed in the NHL at 18?
- MJL

Because HArt was in the AHl until Fletcher moved him up, not sure how many times i need to bring that up

I think we are losing sight of the original point of this discussion. MJL is clearly correct that right now we can't say that any of Fletcher's picks are more impactful that Hextall's because they simply have not played enough or any games at the NHL level so far. My original point was only that it appears to me these kids are moving up the development path much faster than Hextall's picks. Now that could strictly be because of philosophical differences between Fletcher and Hextall, but it also could be that the kids Fletcher has drafted are just better suited for today's NHL. Only time will tell which is correct.
- jd250

No, your original point was that Fletcher's picks look more promising. I'll link to it if need be.

Because HArt was in the AHl until Fletcher moved him up, not sure how many times i need to bring that up
- bradster

I don't need you to bring that up. It's a well known fact. Again, how does that show that Fletcher moved players up faster than Hextall. Again, I counter with Hextall placing Provorov and Konecny in the NHL at 19. At an age where I'll point out that they were ineligible to play in the AHL. How old was Hart when brought up. I'll stipulate that comparing development rate of goalies versus position players is not an equal comparison.

Since your other comments are completely wrong and this is the only one that is remotely related to hockey, this is the only one that I will address.
I have not made any comment related to whether I supported the Sixers tanking 6 years ago. On what factual basis can you support the claim that I resumed rooting for the Sixers after 6 years? I object to facts not in evidence. You are badly assuming here.

You have made the public comment many, many times that you do not support the Flyers re-signing Sean Couturier. You support trading him to collect assets for the future. So applying the same standard to you that you want to apply to me, does that mean if the Flyers do something that you don't support, you will stop rooting for them?

The edits to my posts were to avoid being distracted and caught up in a childish and irrelevant argument about the irrelevant material that you post, that might be taken the wrong way by a lurking moderator. With the politics of hockeybuzz, I have to be careful. Others can just flat out call someone a moron. Believe me, there is a lot more that I wish I could post
- MJL

1. I don't know what you mean by completely wrong. You deleted (or edited out) every word of at least 2 posts. Once these posts started disappearing, I took a screenshot, and I am sure others saw it too. One of the deletions claimed that the Ali quote you posted was by Howard Cosell when calling a fight. That has nothing to do with anything confrontational. Would you mind posting a link to that? I am genuinely interested.

2. You also, in response to the Sixers tanking, said your support now was not relevant to what Sixers tanking 6 years ago. You also wrote: "Go Sixers". That seems like support to me.

Since you have mentioned you would _never_ support a team that has tanked, this seems to me a fair (though trivial) point to point out.

No, your original point was that Fletcher's picks look more promising. I'll link to it if need be.
- MJL

I didnt say look more promising. Quit changing my words. Chuck is 2-2 on top picks, Ron has some misses, bottom line

Disagree, he is a miss, hasn't played a game when everyone else has. But he can change that. I think you think once labeled that, it cant be changed, but i say it can lol
Even look at Pronmans flyers prospect rankings, JOB isnt in the top 10, below brink, attard, and cates, but you certainly can disagree with us both if you want.
- bradster

The fact that O'Brien has not played an NHL game at this point in time does not suggest or support that he will not make it to the NHL. That is unknown. If Pronman was so good at player evaluation, he'd be doing something different.

I didnt say look more promising. Quit changing my words. Chuck is 2-2 on top picks, Ron has some misses, bottom line
- bradster

You're quoting a post that is not in reply to you. I linked your exact words copied and pasted from your post in another reply.

I don't need you to bring that up. It's a well known fact. Again, how does that show that Fletcher moved players up faster than Hextall. Again, I counter with Hextall placing Provorov and Konecny in the NHL at 19. At an age where I'll point out that they were ineligible to play in the AHL. How old was Hart when brought up. I'll stipulate that comparing development rate of goalies versus position players is not an equal comparison.
- MJL

How does that show fletcher moves players up??? BEcause he did it with HArt, its really simple. You can counter about provy, but maybe chuck wouldve had him up a year sooner, you dont know that. Quit being a hextall appologist

JD250, thank you for you well written answer.

There are however, two rookie large conceptual errors you make: regarding bookies and regarding odds applied to single instances. Please allow me to try to address the issue as succinctly as I can, for I am sure I can easily correct the issues.

1. Vegas: You are right about the way that Vegas makes it money. Not by taking a position, but by adjusting odds so as to equalize betting volume across both sides. Could those odds turn out to be inaccurate in a single instance? Sure. But could there be a systematic bias? No. That money grubbing way that Vegas sets its odds is in fact the most scientific, rational way to calculate sports odds chances.

Because suppose there was a systematic bias. Which way is it? Lets choose any one kind or error, say, Vegas overestimates the odds of victory for the more favored team. Then, over a period of time, it will find that the balance of bets is going against the favored team. It will end up NOT equalizing volume, and therefore not maximizing revenue. Then, it will make the correction of lowering the odds.

Such market forces are by far the best predictor we have for events. In the stock market and in political betting markets and in sports, they are not perfect, but they are the best.

2. Regarding the example you choose, of the 7 games VGK-Habs series, in any single instance of a game, a series, a coin flip, anything can happen. But anything can happen does not mean everything is equally likely! There are degrees of likelihood even in that single instance. You are conflating anything can happen with everything is likely to happen.

Think of the roll of a single die. You have two choices: you guess it will come up 1-5 or it will come up exactly 6. Could you get a 6 in the single roll? Sure you could. But is it as likely as getting 1-5? Ofc not! If you had to choose between 2 options (by say, putting money on a bet), would you choose 6, or would you choose 1-5? Ofc you would choose the latter!
- PT21

I would choose the former, not the latter, because there are more ways to get a 6 (1-5,2-4,3-3) therefore I have better odds than just choosing 1-5.

This is completely false. There is nothing in his statement saying anything is likely to happen. He clearly stated as his main premise in his reply that despite the odds, anything can happen in a 7 game series. It was made very clear.
- MJL

The point 'anything can happen' is meaningless as far as making decisions/predictions go in any context without an assessment of relative likelihood.

That is, if one cares about getting the decisions/predictions correct.

That last caveat may exclude you.

The fact that O'Brien has not played an NHL game at this point in time does not suggest or support that he will not make it to the NHL. That is unknown. If Pronman was so good at player evaluation, he'd be doing something different.
- MJL

Its does not mean anything NHL related, because he is the only player that high in the draft to not play a game yet. At what age can we label him a miss if not now?
What would PRonman be doing if he was better. He makes a living off of what he is doing. You want to dismiss his comments because you dont agree, or what are you getting at?

1. I don't know what you mean by completely wrong. You deleted (or edited out) every word of at least 2 posts. Once these posts started disappearing, I took a screenshot, and I am sure others saw it too. One of the deletions claimed that the Ali quote you posted was by Howard Cosell when calling a fight. That has nothing to do with anything confrontational. Would you mind posting a link to that? I am genuinely interested.

2. You also, in response to the Sixers tanking, said your support now was not relevant to what Sixers tanking 6 years ago. You also wrote: "Go Sixers". That seems like support to me.

Since you have mentioned you would _never_ support a team that has tanked, this seems to me a fair (though trivial) point to point out.
- PT21

I have not commented on the Sixers tanking. My comment is that I would not support the Flyers tanking. A clear distinction. You've tried to make it into something more for obvious reasons. No further comments will be made as you have twisted this into something more for obvious reasons. A classic ad-hominin attack.

Its does not mean anything NHL related, because he is the only player that high in the draft to not play a game yet. At what age can we label him a miss if not now?
What would PRonman be doing if he was better. He makes a living off of what he is doing. You want to dismiss his comments because you dont agree, or what are you getting at?
- bradster

We can label him a miss when it is known he is a miss. He will likely play in the AHL when his collegiate career is over for a bit. He is still only 21 years of age.
I'm not dismissing his comments. I'm dismissing you offering him up as an expert opinion.

I would choose the former, not the latter, because there are more ways to get a 6 (1-5,2-4,3-3) therefore I have better odds than just choosing 1-5.
- jd250

Exactly. Anything (1,2,3,4,5,6) could happen. Yet you chose the one that had the greatest odds.

In the Habs-VGK series, anything could happen, but VGK started strong odds faves. If you had to make a prediction, similarly, you would choose VGK, just like you chose 1-5 as the option.

Most of the times, this strategy would be the correct one (choosing the option that Vegas favors). Else, Vegas as a business would collapse. Would it be a perfect strategy? No: Vegas frequently gets it wrong. Would it be the best one? Yes. Because it beats all alternatives.

Coming back to our original point, you don't want Flyers to just enter last 4. You want them to enter last 4 as the ones with the best odds.

I have not commented on the Sixers tanking. My comment is that I would not support the Flyers tanking. A clear distinction. You've tried to make it into something more for obvious reasons. No further comments will be made as you have twisted this into something more for obvious reasons. A classic ad-hominin attack.
- MJL

I don't understand why you are putting yourself in this position, of being caught in a silly lie. Would you like me to post a screenshot of your deleted comment?

What happened to the Howard Cosell claim? Are you claiming you didn't make that too? If so, your post, which is mercifully still up, is in quotes. Who is that quote from, MJL?

We can label him a miss when it is known he is a miss. He will likely play in the AHL when his collegiate career is over for a bit. He is still only 21 years of age.
I'm not dismissing his comments. I'm dismissing you offering him up as an expert opinion.
- MJL

I offered him as an "expert" eh? Oh, news to me I did that, but that's his job and he studies the prospects.

Anyway im tired of this. HEs a miss until proven otherwise to me, and not you, he isnt a miss until......when you say so, maybe when hes 30, who knows

We can label him a miss when it is known he is a miss. He will likely play in the AHL when his collegiate career is over for a bit. He is still only 21 years of age.
I'm not dismissing his comments. I'm dismissing you offering him up as an expert opinion.
- MJL

I do have a question for you and JD can jump in there to. DO you think a draft pick is more valuable if they can play in the NHL at a younger age, to get more years out of the player? Or would you dismiss that?