Can I ask you a simple question:

Toss a standard quarter coin 5 times. It turn out Heads all of them.

Would you then be the refuter of the premise: "the coin has an equal chance of H or T"?
- PT21

No because you are saying "chance" instead of empirical fact. You can't refute a chance.

How do I become the refutee? DO I need to claim an opinion as fact? Or do I need some sort of degree?

Here is where you have gone wrong. If you had just kept your premise to the empirical fact that the best way to acquire elite top level players is with a high pick (top 5) player in the draft, you'd have been correct in that. However you continuously try to make it more that that despite how much evidence points to the contrary. Your only focus has been on teams that have won with high draft pick elite players while ignoring two main elements. Ignoring the support players around them and the makeup of the entire team. While also ignoring how may teams with high level top 5 elite talent don't win the cup and what that tells you. Every time someone makes a solid point in rebuttal to you, you either "limit the scope" or worse, reply as you have here. You then base the Flyers fortunes strictly on one element rather than a team as a whole. It's just not sound hockey analysis.
- MJL

Can I ask you a simple question:

Toss a standard quarter coin 5 times. It turn out Heads all of them.

Would you then be the refuter of the premise: "the coin has an equal chance of H or T"?
- PT21

If I called heads all 5 times then I won! Hey who cares about what the odds were before the toss! That's why you play the games!

If I called heads all 5 times then I won! Hey who cares about what the odds were before the toss! That's why you play the games!
- MJL

That was exactly the type of answer YOU would mock.

Guess you have some time to make up for, huh?

Until your next suspension/banning.

No because you are saying "chance" instead of empirical fact. You can't refute a chance.

How do I become the refutee? DO I need to claim an opinion as fact? Or do I need some sort of degree?
- mickel25

Sure you can.

Toss that coin 1000 times. The fraction of heads should be a bell curve, centered around 500 The std. deviation would be about 15.75

99% of the time, the # of heads should be between a narrow range: 452 to 548.

If it is not, the premise it has an equal chance of heads or tails is refuted.

Now, you may not know this, or may have forgotten. That's fine. But it is the certainty with which you made the bolded statement that is remarkable.

You guys are truly blowing my mind.

Sure you can.

Toss that coin 1000 times. The fraction of heads should be a bell curve, centered around 500 The std. deviation would be about 15.75

99% of the time, the # of heads should be between a narrow range: 452 to 548.

If it is not, the premise it has an equal chance of heads or tails is refuted.

Now, you may not know this, or may have forgotten. That's fine. But it is the certainty with which you made the bolded statement that is remarkable.

You guys are truly blowing my mind.
- PT21

Can you run the numbers for 1,000,000 attempts? When does the "chance" become an empirical fact?

Does the type of coin matter? Does the person that tosses the coin matter? Does the height of the toss matter?

Can you run the numbers for 1,000,000 attempts? When does the "chance" become an empirical fact?

Does the type of coin matter? Does the person that tosses the coin matter? Does the height of the toss matter?
- mickel25

1. Yes. Then, 99% of coin tosses should lie between 499250 and 500750
2. When the # of tosses reaches infinity.
3. Not really (assuming you mean most standard US coins)
4. No
5. No

Can you run the numbers for 1,000,000 attempts? When does the "chance" become an empirical fact?

Does the type of coin matter? Does the person that tosses the coin matter? Does the height of the toss matter?
- mickel25

YOU DIDN'T CALL NO INTERFERENCE!

1. Yes. Then, 99% of coin tosses should lie between 499250 and 500750
2. When the # of tosses reaches infinity.
3. Not really (assuming you mean most standard US coins)
4. No
5. No
- PT21

Would wind factor in? Does the physical location of the toss play a role? Another poster asked about interference? Should you eat before tossing the coin?

What if you only do two tosses and both are heads or tails?

- Tomahawk

There are also some other elements I ignored.

Whether the hockey players grew up in a single parent household or not
Whether they grew up in Canada or say, Germany
Whether they obtained As in school
When they lost their virginity.

Each of these may well turn out to be statistically relevant.

I beseech you to consider, gentlemen, the rather elementary proposition that my omission of these variables does not equate to my assessment of their unimportance.

Would wind factor in? Does the physical location of the toss play a role? Another poster asked about interference? Should you eat before tossing the coin?

What if you only do two tosses and both are heads or tails?
- mickel25

1. It should be done inside.
2. No.
3. I dunno what you mean
4. Shouldn't matter.

And umm:

5. you truly are a bona fide moron.

1. It should be done inside.
2. No.
3. I dunno what you mean
4. Shouldn't matter.

And umm:

5. you truly are a bona fide moron.
- PT21

Thanks for noticing. You have the night you deserve fella.

I beseech you to consider, gentlemen, the rather elementary proposition that my omission of these variables does not equate to my assessment of their unimportance.
- PT21

We did consider it but then looked at your insistence of your stance and came to the only conclusion that can be taken from that.

The night lies ahead. I hope I get some sleep as I got none last night (which explains why I blew this day here)

What I do know is the day was an absolute blast, and you being a moron was a critical reason why. It is really I who should thank you. No hard feelings.

There is one question you asked I would like to answer before I leave the discussion. How can my claim be refuted?

The answer, very simply, is the way any statistical claim can be refuted. Roughly, find a significant fraction of times it has failed.

Later.


- PT21

Before the playoffs started, who had better odds to make the Conference finals? Colorado or Montreal?
What were the Dallas Stars odds to reach the Cup finals in 2020 versus other teams in the West?
In 2019, who had better odds to win the 7 game series between Columbus and TB?
What were St. Louis' odds to win the Cup in 2019?
What were the odds of Nashville as a wild card team making it to the Cup finals in 2017?
Yea, statistically if you played those scenarios out 10 times they'd probably go the other way more than not however in those moments, that doesn't matter. That's the point! Or should St. Louis have given the Cup back because the odds didn't favor them? That's sports!

A big part of being a fan is watching and observing the games and forming an opinion based on those observations. Right or wrong. That's fandom. Yea you can look at stats, look at odds or read articles from pundits you anoint as experts and form your opinion from that but that's just being led around by a leash and being told what to think rather than thinking for yourself. I would be sad for that individual. Reminds me of something else. I loathe for the day where team management and development becomes just analysis of statistical data by a stats head and the human element of scouting and player evaluation is removed for the most part. That will be a sad time for sports.

So did mjl find any predraft articles of nopa and migraines ?

Go Sixers!

Go Sixers!
- MJL

Let’s gooooo! If we can win tonight I think we finish them in Philly.

Let’s gooooo! If we can win tonight I think we finish them in Philly.
- arichardson22

I know Harden has been out and Kyrie Irving got hurt the other night. Heard any word on him?

We did consider it but then looked at your insistence of your stance and came to the only conclusion that can be taken from that.
- MJL

I completely understand.

1. I planned a vacation with my wife, where it rained hard all day every day. When she asked me why I did not check the weather report, I replied because they only have a 20% chance of predicting extreme events correctly.

She pointed out that the 20% chance was far better than the 5% chance of predicting extreme events WITHOUT a weather report. Shouldn't we choose the best of the choices?

On hearing that, I pointed out that the extreme weather events in Edmonton, Toronto, Buffalo and Arizona had all failed in predictions.

2. The second reason I provided to my wife is that the weather forecaster said nothing about many other important things also needed to make for a good vacation. :Like bringing our medication, using google maps, not getting a hotel in the hood....

How could I be convinced the forecaster was correct in his predictions about the weather's importance to our vacation if he never ever mentions those things? For they are important too! It must be he thinks they are not worth mentioning.
Gee, must be a crap forecaster!

Linus Sandin must be guaranteed a roster spot. If not, he wouldn't have re-signed.
- Ftown19125

Go Sixers!
- MJL

Ha ha ha.

I cannot resist this one. The ardent fanboy who doesn't support tanking.

https://www.nytimes.com/2...hiladelphia-76ers-go.html


How Low Can the Philadelphia 76ers Go?

By Michael Sokolove

April 9, 2015

There has never been a professional sports team quite like the 2014-15 Philadelphia 76ers, a roster of basketball castoffs and drifters that could be the least capable assemblage of players ever to suit up for an N.B.A. game. The franchise — widely believed by those who follow pro basketball to be deliberately in “tank mode,” in order to lose games and get a top pick in this summer’s N.B.A. draft — has offended sensibilities, provoked curiosity, inspired bizarre mathematical theorems. How low could they go? After they lost 17 games to open the current season, the FiveThirtyEight website published a “dark simulation” that projected their losing streak could reach 54 games. Deadspin declared the Sixers a “godless abomination,” while Slam Magazine, the hip-hop basketball bible, described them as a “flesh-eating bacteria of sorts on the N.B.A.’s collective self-respect.”

Yea you can look at stats, look at odds or read articles from pundits you anoint as experts and form your opinion from that but that's just being led around by a leash and being told what to think rather than thinking for yourself. I would be sad for that individual.
- MJL

When I make decisions about my health, I don't use the tests, imaging, opinions of doctors as the starting or supplementary tools of my reaction.

Instead, I just tend to go my own way. Why would I be led by a leash by people who are not even feeling the same things I am?

I deal with situations after they occur. For example, if I die, well that's an empirical fact, right? I will see what I can do after that.

I know Harden has been out and Kyrie Irving got hurt the other night. Heard any word on him?
- MJL

Kyrie is out for game 5. But I think Nets are taking a page out of Hexy’s book and not giving much detail on Kyrie lol! Harden is “progressing.” But Steve Nash said they will not rush Harden back with Kyrie now out.

1. Yes. Then, 99% of coin tosses should lie between 499250 and 500750
2. When the # of tosses reaches infinity.
3. Not really (assuming you mean most standard US coins)
4. No
5. No
- PT21

correction: 498500 to 501500

Ha ha ha.

I cannot resist this one. The ardent fanboy who doesn't support tanking.

https://www.nytimes.com/2...hiladelphia-76ers-go.html


How Low Can the Philadelphia 76ers Go?

By Michael Sokolove

April 9, 2015

There has never been a professional sports team quite like the 2014-15 Philadelphia 76ers, a roster of basketball castoffs and drifters that could be the least capable assemblage of players ever to suit up for an N.B.A. game. The franchise — widely believed by those who follow pro basketball to be deliberately in “tank mode,” in order to lose games and get a top pick in this summer’s N.B.A. draft — has offended sensibilities, provoked curiosity, inspired bizarre mathematical theorems. How low could they go? After they lost 17 games to open the current season, the FiveThirtyEight website published a “dark simulation” that projected their losing streak could reach 54 games. Deadspin declared the Sixers a “godless abomination,” while Slam Magazine, the hip-hop basketball bible, described them as a “flesh-eating bacteria of sorts on the N.B.A.’s collective self-respect.”
- PT21

"Ali has him on the ropes"