You miss my point. I said the final four teams have A chance to win, not an equal chance to win. But you have ZERO chance to win if you can't even get there!


- jd250

You said:

"that is all you ask for if you want a chance to win"

All you could ask for, surely, is to be the team with the best chance to win at this stage, not just a chance.

Because teams with the best chance to win do so at a greater % than teams with the second best chances to win, which tend to do better than the team with the 3rd greatest % chance of winning and so on.

Ultimately, you want to be in the position which historically had yielded the highest rate of success. That's not the team with the worst odds in the final 4.

The is an underrated post, not that there is a like button. If there was, I would have liked it. Jones is my favorite prospective acquisition at 1RD. However, the truth is I would accept a whole list of stopgaps before I would accept doing nothing.

It’s a permanent hole, it would be best to get the right fit to fill it long term. Otherwise, it’s Groundhog Day every few years.
- NC Flyers Fan

Thanks man!

It's a damn shame he suffered that collar bone injury at the end of his season. His skating was knocked before and at the draft, but the guy supposedly worked his ass off when the season paused during COVID. He has a hell of a work ethic too and got some farmer strength. His shot is lethal and maybe one of the best in that whole draft class. So far it looks like Fletcher and Flahr (and scouts) had a good first draft-year. Will be interesting to see how this year goes with all the prevention of scouts seeing games.
- arichardson22

It was Fletcher and Flahr's second draft year, this one will be their third. However so far they have done a very good job picking players, better I think than Hextall did.

No question. Add in Farabee who has a legit shot to be a 30 goal 60-70 point player. We already know that Konecny can be an effective player at the NHL level. Hey but they may never be "elite" so what good are they? We should burn it up and start over.
- MJL

Flyers have a great young core. Only a matter of time before they put it all together. Not many teams can match that young talent.

Still waiting on Ronald's draft picks to be "stars".
- hello it's me 2050

He just needed more time.

You said:

"that is all you ask for if you want a chance to win"

All you could ask for, surely, is to be the team with the best chance to win at this stage, not just a chance.

Because teams with the best chance to win do so at a greater % than teams with the second best chances to win, which tend to do better than the team with the 3rd greatest % chance of winning and so on.

Ultimately, you want to be in the position which historically had yielded the highest rate of success. That's not the team with the worst odds in the final 4.
- PT21

It would be interesting to see what odds the eventual Stanley Cup winner had of winning the cup once the final 4 was established, over say the last 20 years. If I had to guess I would say the favored final 4 team actually won the cup only 25% of the time. For example, going into the 2011 playoffs, the Boston Bruins had 9-1 odds of winning the cup. Odds are nice when placing bets, but reality is king!

The 2021 Stanley Cup Odds:
Team Odds at DraftKings
Vegas Golden Knights +110
Tampa Bay Lightning +175
New York Islanders +650
Montreal Canadiens +850

You said:

"that is all you ask for if you want a chance to win"

All you could ask for, surely, is to be the team with the best chance to win at this stage, not just a chance.


- PT21

How do you determine who the team with the best chance to win at this stage as a fact before the games are played? Was Colorado considered one of those teams? What happened? When that team is anointed as such, is that a fact or an opinion? Does Vegas giving a team the best odds to win make it a fact? What odds did Vegas give the Avs to win the Cup?

Because teams with the best chance to win do so at a greater % than teams with the second best chances to win, which tend to do better than the team with the 3rd greatest % chance of winning and so on.


- PT21

Where can we find this data on which team has the best chance so we can verify this info?

Ultimately, you want to be in the position which historically had yielded the highest rate of success. That's not the team with the worst odds in the final 4.
- PT21

This is not correct. Ultimately you want to be the team that wins even if you had the worst odds in the final 4.

It was Fletcher and Flahr's second draft year, this one will be their third. However so far they have done a very good job picking players, better I think than Hextall did.
- jd250

What is the basis for claiming that they've done better than Hextall did? I have a further thought on this, but I'll save it for later after I hear your thought process.

It was Fletcher and Flahr's second draft year, this one will be their third. However so far they have done a very good job picking players, better I think than Hextall did.
- jd250

I swear I always forget his first pick was York

How do you determine who the team with the best chance to win at this stage as a fact before the games are played? Was Colorado considered one of those teams? What happened? When that team is anointed as such, is that a fact or an opinion? Does Vegas giving a team the best odds to win make it a fact? What odds did Vegas give the Avs to win the Cup?




Where can we find this data on which team has the best chance so we can verify this info?



This is not correct. Ultimately you want to be the team that wins even if you had the worst odds in the final 4.
- MJL

Odds are nothing more than predictions, and people suck at predicting! PT21 just doesn't get this point. Odds are not reality!

Well, you are the failed refuter, as per the 'exposition," (which I thought was pretty simple).
- PT21

So if anyone outside of TBL wins the cup this year can I become the refutee?

Linus Sandin must be guaranteed a roster spot. If not, he wouldn't have re-signed.
- Ftown19125

You don’t sign a two way contract if you are “guaranteed “ a roster spot.

You don’t sign a two way contract if you are “guaranteed “ a roster spot.
- Djapana

it was a joke. when he initially signed here some really smart people were saying he had to be guaranteed a roster spot or he wouldn't have come over.

What is the basis for claiming that they've done better than Hextall did? I have a further thought on this, but I'll save it for later after I hear your thought process.
- MJL

Let me preface by saying Hextall's last draft might have been his best, where he drafted Farabee and O'Brien. But from my perspective so far, it appears Fletcher's picks are more rapidly climbing the ladder and making an impact sooner than Hextall's. Now some of Hextall's picks have had the worst injury luck, and I also think Hextall's philosophy of developing players was much more cautious/deliberate than Fletcher approach, so these can all be factors. However overall I think what Fletcher values in a player is more geared to today's NHL than what Hextall values, which I think was size and 200 foot play above all else.

Odds are nothing more than predictions, and people suck at predicting! PT21 just doesn't get this point. Odds are not reality!
- jd250

Just upgrade to the empirical fact package and you will always be right.

No question. Add in Farabee who has a legit shot to be a 30 goal 60-70 point player. We already know that Konecny can be an effective player at the NHL level. Hey but they may never be "elite" so what good are they? We should burn it up and start over.
- MJL

I think those points are the exact reason we should start over, we have some serious potential in young guys and if we drafted towards the top for a few years, got additional young talent, and then were able to sign/trade for a few pieces we might actually be in that spot where we can contend for a window

Odds are nothing more than predictions, and people suck at predicting! PT21 just doesn't get this point. Odds are not reality!
- jd250

The issue is not that odds are not reality. If they were, they would jyst be called that.

The issue is, you don't really understand what "odds" means.

So if anyone outside of TBL wins the cup this year can I become the refutee?
- mickel25

Wow. Just wow. Honestly, it is truly incredible.

Let me preface by saying Hextall's last draft might have been his best, where he drafted Farabee and O'Brien. But from my perspective so far, it appears Fletcher's picks are more rapidly climbing the ladder and making an impact sooner than Hextall's. Now some of Hextall's picks have had the worst injury luck, and I also think Hextall's philosophy of developing players was much more cautious/deliberate than Fletcher approach, so these can all be factors. However overall I think what Fletcher values in a player is more geared to today's NHL than what Hextall values, which I think was size and 200 foot play above all else.
- jd250

What impact? Fletcher's draft picks have played a total of 3 NHL games! The point I was holding back is that it way too soon to even try and measure each GM's drafting against another. We still don't have a good idea of what the full impact will be of many of Hextall's picks and he was the GM under 4 drafts and has been gone for 2 drafts. There is no possible way you can support the opinion that you have.

Wow. Just wow. Honestly, it is truly incredible.
- PT21

It really is.

I think those points are the exact reason we should start over, we have some serious potential in young guys and if we drafted towards the top for a few years, got additional young talent, and then were able to sign/trade for a few pieces we might actually be in that spot where we can contend for a window
- ClaudeFather

Maybe, maybe not. Meanwhile the young players you have already in the lineup are suffering developmentally due to having to play elevated roles too soon in their career. That is one thing that definitely needs to be learned from last season. I said earlier, the Flyers have to react to what happened last season but it is extremely important not to overreact. I don't think they have to blow it up to have a chance at developing a top team.

Remember though, we were talking about winning the cup in the time span of our bet, which has 3 years or so to go. Stevens just about fits that bill. In the case of Chelios, Rafalski, Murphy, they joined an already existing superstar Lidstrom. Nidermayer and Pronger fit the bill precisely, fine point taken, forgot about them. I remember that series well, and Mr. Lady Byng Alfredsson firing a puck right at Niedermayer's upper body (he missed). However, that team had a young Getzlaf and Perry on the cusp of their prime. Who is our equivalent?

Note though: even if these examples are granted, how few they are. I never said Flyers win a cup is impossible. I just said it is exceedingly unlikely.
- PT21

Yes, I win the bet if the Flyers win a conference final in the next 3 years. Your “thing” has been about the teams that win the cup.

half-dozen or so examples between the ones you listed plus MJL. Those are the defenseman-acquired-in-trade examples; probably a lot more for the other positions. Your note sounds a touch defensive. It’s not possible that is a sliver of doubt I detect, is it? All hope is not lost...perhaps you might be turned from the dark side.

It really is.
- mickel25

Can I ask you a simple question:

Toss a standard quarter coin 5 times. It turn out Heads all of them.

Would you then be the refuter of the premise: "the coin has an equal chance of H or T"?

Yes, I win the bet if the Flyers win a conference final in the next 3 years. Your “thing” has been about the teams that win the cup.

half-dozen or so examples between the ones you listed plus MJL. Those are the defenseman-acquired-in-trade examples; probably a lot more for the other positions. Your note sounds a touch defensive. It’s not possible that is a sliver of doubt I detect, is it? All hope is not lost...perhaps you might be turned from the dark side.
- NC Flyers Fan

Hmm. We moved on from the bet, remember?

I said something like: "I don't give a poop if I win the bet or not. I want to win (the cup)."

All my subsequent posts were about Flyers winning the cup, not me winning the bet

Which, btw, I am not gonna lose. If you feel strongly otherwise, I will let you wager money on it.

Yes, I win the bet if the Flyers win a conference final in the next 3 years. Your “thing” has been about the teams that win the cup.

half-dozen or so examples between the ones you listed plus MJL. Those are the defenseman-acquired-in-trade examples; probably a lot more for the other positions. Your note sounds a touch defensive. It’s not possible that is a sliver of doubt I detect, is it? All hope is not lost...perhaps you might be turned from the dark side.
- NC Flyers Fan

Here is the real point. It is exceedingly unlikely for pretty much every team to win the cup. Well except for one every year! If X =Y then Z.


There are many, many more examples but we have to consider the current NHL environment in applying it to the current Flyers situation.