"weltanschauung"??
Someone is over-educated about the esoteric..... perhaps philosophy, maybe psychology?
To the commoners, that's a POV. Undoubtedly the Germans have a more nuanced take here, but this does bring up something that occurred to me PRIOR to seeing this (to me) novel word.
Fans. What are they interested in?
The excesses committed here are in the name of fun, or it's a commitment to S+M.
Since I consist of mostly shallow components, I'm here for the entertainment and the rest of the cacophony can make for some exquisite pain that may involve me temporarily.
Let's be honest with ourselves, if you keep deep-diving into stats, salaries, personalities, history, and 'possible' scenarios, I'll be on the boat awaiting more breathless reports. Petit amusements, si, si! (As the Canadiens and my neighbors in Florida say. That exhausts my alternate language base.)
Admitting to a very narrow 'weltanschauung' (It fits so neatly.... nah...a lot of overhangs.), does not mean I am unappreciative of those who delve into the intricacies. It's just not my thing.
However picking chestnuts out of this tire fire (kidding, I'm kidding!) requires careful selections and generous allowances for dust raised and clinkers thrown by the trafficking of concepts both hoary and incisive herein.
Thanks for the work.
Now, does it help you?
In comparison, I WANT THE FLYERS TO BE ENTERTAINING!
And that's all. You guys help with these treatises on the secret corners of stats. I gain a better grasp of what YOU are speaking of and improving my understanding of the Executives functions.
Your efforts and declarations are part of the fascination, for me, about this Team.
Now G-Dit, GO FLYERS!

The only way I’m giving up Nolan Patrick is if the reports are true. He’s unhappy, kid wants a trade. I wouldn’t be surprised if his decision if wanted to be traded is more so fan treatment than anything within the organization. Brind’Amour said it himself, the players hear the fans and everything Patrick’s been through, I’d wanna leave too if they’re is a true lack of sympathy.

All this aside, Patrick can be a good piece to any trade the Flyers decision to make. Whether it for Jones or Eichel, he should help the deal go through.
- SuperSchennBros

Fan treatment? What fan treatment? Can’t imagine he had any fan interaction the year he sat out and most of the last season was played in empty stadiums.

Fan treatment? What fan treatment? Can’t imagine he had any fan interaction the year he sat out and most of the last season was played in empty stadiums.
- Dkos

What does the year he say out have anything to do with anything? What about this passed season?

Fan treatment? What fan treatment? Can’t imagine he had any fan interaction the year he sat out and most of the last season was played in empty stadiums.
- Dkos

I agree, and I'm sure he would have had it SO much better somewhere else, under the same conditions. Like Toronto or NY.

If he wants a change of scenery, he wants a change of scenery.

I still would refuse him and make him play a healthy season HERE first, to get any real value in return.

There is zero reason to accommodate him.

I agree, and I'm sure he would have had it SO much better somewhere else, under the same conditions. Like Toronto or NY.

If he wants a change of scenery, he wants a change of scenery.

I still would refuse him and make him play a healthy season HERE first, to get any real value in return.

There is zero reason to accommodate him.
- DrMidnite

I think there is a lot of points being missed here. I'll try to explain from my own experience. I'm currently in the process of moving. I just moved out of my apartment from one township, into Detroit with my father for a month to save money rather than spend on rent. By July I should be ready to move into my house. Well due to the move and my schedule, I haven't been able to yoga. On my normal schedule I'd normally yoga 5 to 6 times a week. Well up until Thursday, I hadn't been to yoga in two full weeks, so finally getting back into it after not being there in a couple weeks took the wind out of me.

Here is my point, due to a head injury Patrick was unable to play hockey at a high level for a year and half, missing one full season. I don't know what his workout habits were/are but we do know most players around the league were unable to workout or use any hockey rinks due to Covid restrictions. I know in Canada that the restrictions are much more harsh. So I can only imagine what his body would allow him to do while getting back into the swing of things in a 56 game series of games. Most of us should know that fatigue always sets in down a stretch run. Patrick had a hot start and than his play jumped off a cliff. I think it's possible fans let him have it. Not positive but possible.

I think there is an argument that could be made for Patrick.

Should the Flyers rebuild? Top defenseman to target? Player most likely to bounce back? Mailbag

-------------------------------------------------


Good little read on the Athletic this morning!

Should the Flyers rebuild? Top defenseman to target? Player most likely to bounce back? Mailbag

-------------------------------------------------


Good little read on the Athletic this morning!
- DraftandDestroy

"But don’t fool yourself into thinking that said rebuild would be quick. To bottom out to the level necessary to nab top-10 picks on the regular, we’re talking about an utter gutting of the roster and a bare minimum three-year stretch in the wilderness, and that’s if essentially everything breaks right. It very well could be five-plus seasons. "

Sign me up.

Should the Flyers rebuild? Top defenseman to target? Player most likely to bounce back? Mailbag

-------------------------------------------------


Good little read on the Athletic this morning!
- DraftandDestroy

I think the Flyers need to unload Voracek, find someone to replace JvR’s role and go back in time and not sign Hayes. I don’t think we need a rebuild. I just think we need our young players to take steps forward instead of back.

"But don’t fool yourself into thinking that said rebuild would be quick. To bottom out to the level necessary to nab top-10 picks on the regular, we’re talking about an utter gutting of the roster and a bare minimum three-year stretch in the wilderness, and that’s if essentially everything breaks right. It very well could be five-plus seasons. "

Sign me up.
- PT21

Will be joining you there before too long

"weltanschauung"??
Someone is over-educated about the esoteric..... perhaps philosophy, maybe psychology?
To the commoners, that's a POV. Undoubtedly the Germans have a more nuanced take here, but this does bring up something that occurred to me PRIOR to seeing this (to me) novel word.
Fans. What are they interested in?
The excesses committed here are in the name of fun, or it's a commitment to S+M.
Since I consist of mostly shallow components, I'm here for the entertainment and the rest of the cacophony can make for some exquisite pain that may involve me temporarily.
Let's be honest with ourselves, if you keep deep-diving into stats, salaries, personalities, history, and 'possible' scenarios, I'll be on the boat awaiting more breathless reports. Petit amusements, si, si! (As the Canadiens and my neighbors in Florida say. That exhausts my alternate language base.)
Admitting to a very narrow 'weltanschauung' (It fits so neatly.... nah...a lot of overhangs.), does not mean I am unappreciative of those who delve into the intricacies. It's just not my thing.
However picking chestnuts out of this tire fire (kidding, I'm kidding!) requires careful selections and generous allowances for dust raised and clinkers thrown by the trafficking of concepts both hoary and incisive herein.
Thanks for the work.
Now, does it help you?
In comparison, I WANT THE FLYERS TO BE ENTERTAINING!
And that's all. You guys help with these treatises on the secret corners of stats. I gain a better grasp of what YOU are speaking of and improving my understanding of the Executives functions.
Your efforts and declarations are part of the fascination, for me, about this Team.
Now G-Dit, GO FLYERS!
- Pompous

A gentle aside: I don't think its fair to "plead" with a poster to "leave him alone", and then keep referring to him.

Anyway, that word (which I admit I did think twice about using, and went ahead because someone used simulacrum a few weeks earlier), really means "an essential philosophy of life", which is deeper and broader than pov. Eg: The weltanschauung of America is materialism and so on.

The Germans are good at this sort of thing. Words like zeitgeist, schadenfreude, etc are other examples.

I wasn't trying to be esoteric or superior. It was just the right word to use.

Will be joining you there before too long
- stayinthefnnet

We won't be there. That cellar is beneath our dignity.

We will be the ones waiting though, 10 years down, to shake your hands in the playoffs.

Priorities, right?

Look, lets just put the cards on the table. We all know its going to be Vegas vs. Tampa. These are and have been the best two teams for the past couple of seasons and this year is no exception. Talent, speed and size wins all the time! I will say this year I am picking Vegas to hoist the cup, after their performance against Colorado in a very tough series.
- jd250

Dunno what to make of Vegas... I am still going with Tampa.

We won't be there. That cellar is beneath our dignity.

We will be the ones waiting though, 10 years down, to shake your hands in the playoffs.

Priorities, right?
- PT21

Your probably right.

Honestly, I don’t want the pens to cut bait. Sounds odd but I want them to do precisely what the phillies did and cling to their aging stars too long as opposed to getting out early and jump starting the rebuild.

Your probably right.

Honestly, I don’t want the pens to cut bait. Sounds odd but I want them to do precisely what the phillies did and cling to their aging stars too long as opposed to getting out early and jump starting the rebuild.
- stayinthefnnet

I understand. I might have the luxury of this perspective if my club had won 5 titles in the past 30 years.

Oh I see I think you’re taking it as that’s the only draft plan I think team should employ? No absolutely not do I believe that. I totally agree that team should still scout goalies in other rounds and if they have a goalie as bpa or want to take a swing on goalie later rounds by all means yea you do it. My theory of investing in round 1 every about 5 years is only to take advantage of fact most teams won’t even consider drafting in round 1 even for the top echelon goalie prospect. And I don’t just think Ersson can’t make it or just. Kindly discard it. He’s a 5th round pick and odds say less than 5% chance he does. It’s not to say he can’t. That doesn’t mean you can’t take a chance on those picks and try to develop them as every team should. Totally agree. My theory is just to give better odds to not only hit on a goalie but avoid having to pay the big contract.
- Stayin alive

So would you say if a team hits in the later rounds or free agency that alters its timing to prioritize getting a top goalie in the draft? I say this because (I don’t have the exact numbers)...if half the top goalie picks (round 1 and 2) that pan out make up about half of all NHL goalies, there is still a equal amount making it from the larger volume of 3rd round and later drafted goalies. Even though the percentage who make it is smaller, it’s still an equally important piece of the overall goaltending landscape.

As far as the contract goes, I really see it as a team by team decision based on the makeup and style of play the team employs. In the cap world, you have to pick where to spend.

I understand. I might have the luxury of this perspective if my club had won 5 titles in the past 30 years.
- PT21

I didn’t mean that as a rub your nose in it sort of way.

But you aren’t wrong.

But you will keep arguing the unarguable, like MJL.
- PT21

It’s actually really funny you keep mentioning him while he’s banned. When he wasn’t, you mostly wouldn’t engage him. Super Weird.

It’s actually really funny you keep mentioning him while he’s banned. When he wasn’t, you mostly wouldn’t engage him. Super Weird.
- Ftown19125

Is that true? I thought I discussed him when others brought up the issue of his ban and so on?

As for not "engage" him when is there, that was the only viable path, really. I came to it by the elimination of the other paths, not out of choice.

Well, lets look at this issue and compare it my 'theory' (it is really just a summary of existing data), since this has come up before.

1. My theory pertains only to ultimate cup winners. That has not been decided yet. So, irrelevant.

2. The theory states that cup winners very likely have critical players who were seen as superstars. It doesn't say that every important player will be a superstar. So, even if TB wins, and Killorn wins Cnn Smythe, it still won't be a refutation. Again irrelevant.

3. It also states that the chances those superstar players came from the top part of the draft is far, far higher than any similar set of draft positions. Again, irrelevant because of 1 and 2.

The theory is probabilistic, which means the only way it can be refuted is if there are a large fraction of times it turns out to be wrong. It will be wrong, for instance, if teams like Flyers or Habs (no superstars but quite deep) end up winning frequently, defeating teams like Avs, Tampa, etc.

That's not gonna happen. The sample set is large enough for me to be confident about that.

Bottom line: Alex Killorn's performance is irrelevant to my theory.
- PT21

Your response is pretty predictable except that it flies in the face of your rather low opinion of the Flyers top talent. Also, the Islanders don’t really meet your top team requirements either, do they?

You claim the Flyers won’t make it to the conference finals in the next 3 years, yet you state your theory is all about the most likely cup winners not contenders. Even if teams who don’t fit the “PT superstars theory” win an occasional cup and are regularly contenders, it won’t alter your opinion, correct?

Would you summit a current list of teams that fit your theory and ones that don’t? Or is it a fluid thing that changes from year to year or throughout the season or with players growth and better postseason performance? (That hardly seems fair.)

"But don’t fool yourself into thinking that said rebuild would be quick. To bottom out to the level necessary to nab top-10 picks on the regular, we’re talking about an utter gutting of the roster and a bare minimum three-year stretch in the wilderness, and that’s if essentially everything breaks right. It very well could be five-plus seasons. "

Sign me up.
- PT21

It's what SHOULD have been done 6 years ago.

The fact it did not yet does not mean it still isn't the answer.

So would you say if a team hits in the later rounds or free agency that alters its timing to prioritize getting a top goalie in the draft? I say this because (I don’t have the exact numbers)...if half the top goalie picks (round 1 and 2) that pan out make up about half of all NHL goalies, there is still a equal amount making it from the larger volume of 3rd round and later drafted goalies. Even though the percentage who make it is smaller, it’s still an equally important piece of the overall goaltending landscape.

As far as the contract goes, I really see it as a team by team decision based on the makeup and style of play the team employs. In the cap world, you have to pick where to spend.
- NC Flyers Fan

No I wouldn’t break the cycle. For example hart drafted in 16 so we should be drafting top goalie prospect in 20’ or ‘21 or ‘22 if you hit from another later round pick for example Ersson in ‘18 draft you won’t know until probably around 2023 (5years) or probably a little later so say Ersson is good and breaks into nhl around ‘23/‘24. And is really good that gives you option with hart and his bridge deal. Or his 2nd bridge deal. Think about it say Ersson in 3 years on roster and playing really good do you give hart that big deal? That 4/5/6 year 25/30 mil deal? Especially at expense of cap space and losing other players? Well if you stay true to draft cycle and have taken wallstedt in the ‘21 draft you’d have 3 years of development and evaluation on him. If you have that pipeline you don’t need to spend big cap dollars on hart in that case. It gives you options. Or for another option in the scenario you could move Ersson as an asset also. Premium high on good young goalies. In which case you hit on 5 th rounder say you trade him for a 1st or 2nd round pick. Not bad return

Your response is pretty predictable except that it flies in the face of your rather low opinion of the Flyers top talent. Also, the Islanders don’t really meet your top team requirements either, do they?

You claim the Flyers won’t make it to the conference finals in the next 3 years, yet you state your theory is all about the most likely cup winners not contenders. Even if teams who don’t fit the “PT superstars theory” win an occasional cup and are regularly contenders, it won’t alter your opinion, correct?

Would you summit a current list of teams that fit your theory and ones that don’t? Or is it a fluid thing that changes from year to year or throughout the season or with players growth and better postseason performance? (That hardly seems fair.)
- NC Flyers Fan

Is there a statute of limitations on the # of times we go over this? It is becoming Sisyphean.

1. Teams that win the cup tend to have at least one superstars (or stars or studs or whatever) in key positions.

2. Key is defined as 1C, 1W (left or right), and 1D. Not goalie or Defensive Fwd (unless the last overlaps with 1C or 1W)

3. The definition of superstars is based on objective measures like Hart/Norris (again, not Vezina/Selke) vote standings and rankings in point production in the recent span of time preceding the playoff success. I could make this more precise upon request, but it would make this long post even longer.

4. A disproportionate fraction of such stars as defined above come from top draft choices compared to any other set of draft positions.

You really need to understand something. The above is not a personal opinion. It is an empirical fact.

Now addressing the rest of your comments in bolded order:

1. I believe Couturier and Provorov are average to slightly above average in their positions. The wingers are below average. This is not my particular belief: this is shared by essentially all numerical measures, expert forums and outside fans. All except the few intransigent posters who have been wallowing in their homerism in this blog for years. Just go and ask Ek's blog if you doubt me.

2. Correct. The hypothesis is odds based, meaning it will be very largely – but not necessarily always – correct. That does not mean however that it cannot be refuted. If teams constructed like the Isles/Habs keep winning cups, sure, that would be a refutation.

3. Of course it changes from year to year, depending on who moves in and out of those superstar statuses, and how team rosters change.

This year, Tampa is the only remaining team that would fit my model to a T (no pun intended). Vegas would just fit it. (Pietro finished #4 in Norris last year and is a consensus very top player. But only him - not Stone). Isles and Habs would not fit it.

4. My bet last year (which btw, you misremember: it was 11 victories or less in any playoff year) had very little to do with the 'theory' above. It was not general, but specific to this Flyers team, their cap situation and contracts, their management, their fans, their young players, and their rosters.

Now dude, I am happy to engage on specific clarifications, but I cannot endlessly clarify misreadings, so ...

It's what SHOULD have been done 6 years ago.

The fact it did not yet does not mean it still isn't the answer.
- DrMidnite

Yes. We tried the "buy every available superstar" in the Clarke-Holmgren era. We tried the stay competitive and rebuild during Hextall.

That's 20 years of 'variations on the theme of futility'. Even 5 years of full rebuilding and I am pretty sure the # of playoff wins over 20 years would be just as good as the current record.

Dunno what to make of Vegas... I am still going with Tampa.
- PT21

It won’t matter what you make of Vegas because swami said habs win that series

I am glad you used the term "variance". Variance is undefined unless there is a mean. That mean is precisely what I have been calling the odds, and is "my theory"

Now, you will undoubtedly claim the variance is high. So, lets look at the variance.

The Stanley Cup playoffs are a public event where all data, including performance, and wins/losses are measured. That public event is repeated every year, in almost identical circumstances, and there is no rigging I am aware of.

As such, it fits into the classic model of repeated random events. The law of large numbers states here that the more the repetitions, the lower the variance. As the number of repetitions keeps increasing, the variance keeps decreasing until it vanishes.

And that is exactly what the data is showing here. The reason you are finding all this randomness is because you are focusing on deviations in and of themselves, not looking at how rare such deviations are in terms of frequency (how many cups did the incandescent Hasek win for his Sabres?), and further, it appears, many of your deviations are not deviations at all.

You do not need to do any reading. You don't even need to know the rules of hockey. Just use publicly available data.

But you will keep arguing the unarguable, like MJL.
- PT21

What a waste of keystrokes lol.