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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Musings and Quick Hits: Laperriere, Sandström, Phantoms, Showcase & More
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xShoot4WarAmpsx
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hamilton, ON
Joined: 06.25.2010

Jun 11 @ 12:27 PM ET
How would he know that? He should cite his sources and list their contact info like any respectable “journalist”.

Sorry but I don’t trust him. Balrgh!

- StepfordSam


As detailed by SportsNet's Elliotte Friedman on WGR 550's The Instigators, it's not only Eichel who wants to leave the Sabres. Buffalo is ready to move on from Eichel as well.

"Teams are saying you've got an unhappy player who doesn't want to come back," Friedman said. "The Sabres, I really think at the end of the day, want to move on. They don't want him back, they want to move on. And the teams are going to play Buffalo's quote-unquote desperation at that."

"I don't know how many teams are in on Eichel. I think it's several. I don't think it's insignificant," Friedman said. "There are teams out there doing their due diligence on this."

A lot more quotes here:

https://www.sportingnews....brgalcu5xlhb1kq9ho7n3dvbd
DANCER
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.30.2019

Jun 11 @ 12:45 PM ET
The average fan (including me) cannot determine the cause for poor PK stats, only to watch trends. It's seems so clear that it's coaching when the percentage drops precipitously from year one to year two with basically the same players on the squad. Overreaction is normal during the season. Whats true and absolute is that teams have better results when special teams click. Can Lappy and Yeo coach PK? They've both had successful seasons, and seasons that were awful. Problem is that Flyers special teams have been bad much more than good over the recent past. Truthfully all we can do as fans is complain.
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 11 @ 1:02 PM ET
At the time they picked Felix Sandström I felt it was a really good pick, especially given the Flyers troubles with goaltending. Perhaps he's a late bloomer like Jacob Markström was, took him awhile to establish himself as a starter, but once he did, he's been playing well since.

Since the 2000 NHL Entry Draft the Flyers have taken 22 goaltenders, only two of them have played at least 100+ NHL games, Carter Hart (101) and Roman Cechmanek (212). The organization needs to put a lot more value on the position!!

- DraftandDestroy


I didn’t fact check your draft #’s but if true it fits my theory on drafting goalies in round 1 every 5-6 years. Going back to price draft or there about we would’ve drafted 4 top goalies in draft and maybe a few more later rounds. So say 8 goalies we would’ve picked. That would leave 12 picks(chances) at other positions. Not saying they would’ve hit on any of them. For educational purposes only. The more I think about it unless someone drops that shouldn’t to pick 13 if that wallstedt kid is still on board that should be the pick.
Pelle31Forever
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.20.2014

Jun 11 @ 1:19 PM ET
Anyone else think "it could be worse" if the Flyers are still awful next year?

In the Wright, Savoie, Lambert year?

- DrMidnite


Nah. I'm ok with worse. Anything but middle of the road for me.
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 11 @ 1:23 PM ET
Nah. I'm ok with worse. Anything but middle of the road for me.
- Pelle31Forever

Maybe get lucky like 49ers and have injuries and draft a bosa type stud as gift
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 11 @ 1:26 PM ET
How would he know that? He should cite his sources and list their contact info like any respectable “journalist”.

Sorry but I don’t trust him. Balrgh!

- StepfordSam


PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 11 @ 1:28 PM ET
As detailed by SportsNet's Elliotte Friedman on WGR 550's The Instigators, it's not only Eichel who wants to leave the Sabres. Buffalo is ready to move on from Eichel as well.

"Teams are saying you've got an unhappy player who doesn't want to come back," Friedman said. "The Sabres, I really think at the end of the day, want to move on. They don't want him back, they want to move on. And the teams are going to play Buffalo's quote-unquote desperation at that."

"I don't know how many teams are in on Eichel. I think it's several. I don't think it's insignificant," Friedman said. "There are teams out there doing their due diligence on this."

A lot more quotes here:

https://www.sportingnews....brgalcu5xlhb1kq9ho7n3dvbd

- xShoot4WarAmpsx


He was being sarcastic...
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 11 @ 1:32 PM ET
Las Vegas from Monday to yesterday. Got back last night after a long flight delay and an awful traffic jam.
- bmeltzer


I hope there were other highlights, Bill.

Coaching in the NHL is a mystery to me. In your analysis of Lappy's PK, if the success of his seasons were dependent so much on personnel, it does beg the question how we ever know what exactly his value-added is, positive or negative.
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 11 @ 1:42 PM ET
Las Vegas from Monday to yesterday. Got back last night after a long flight delay and an awful traffic jam.
- bmeltzer

How were the crowds ? Casinos full? Shows? Restaurants? Details. Curious how it was
Pelle31Forever
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.20.2014

Jun 11 @ 2:07 PM ET
Maybe get lucky like 49ers and have injuries and draft a bosa type stud as gift
- Stayin alive


Even if assume the unlikelihood they do nothing, if

1. Hart gets back to himself and

2. They at least attempt to defend

they will likely be better. However that division is brutal so they technically could still do worse standings wise even the 2 things mentioned happen.

I never wish for injury but I'm tired of picking 14-22 every season. They need high end young talent teetering on stardom to enter the mix.
Big_E_88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Wilmington, DE
Joined: 01.17.2014

Jun 11 @ 2:24 PM ET
I'm thinking Eichel to the Kings. Or some other team with a loaded farm system that can offer the Sabres something they would actually want.
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 11 @ 2:28 PM ET
I'm thinking Eichel to the Kings. Or some other team with a loaded farm system that can offer the Sabres something they would actually want.
- Big_E_88

They want a mix of assets but more leaning on roster players. Kings won’t give up byfield so he isn’t going to kings

This according to swami
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 11 @ 2:42 PM ET
Even if assume the unlikelihood they do nothing, if

1. Hart gets back to himself and

2. They at least attempt to defend

they will likely be better. However that division is brutal so they technically could still do worse standings wise even the 2 things mentioned happen.

I never wish for injury but I'm tired of picking 14-22 every season. They need high end young talent teetering on stardom to enter the mix.

- Pelle31Forever


1. They are returning to live attendance. They are coming off a bad season. They will need a better product to draw people, on which their revenue is based, especially now the Sixers are competitive.

2. Further, Flyers fan base has a lot of older guys for whom the primary identity of the club is very tied not so much with ultimate cups but rather - not rebuilding and fighting hard and playing with spirit and all that jazz.

3. They are already under siege for not signing a RHD last off-season.

As such,it seems likely to me that there will be at least 1 high profile signing, or two moderate ones. A business cannot afford the visuals of inaction in consecutive years irrespective of what results turn out to be.

With those signings and normal reversion to mean, I think we are a playoff club. But I think we stay in the range you mention for the intermediate future.

In some years time, I think you will see a lot of younger fans, who do not have the same memories of glory days, start to stay away. I believe that is what will lead to change in approach.

Until then, my personal opinion is that you are (frank)ed. There will be ups and downs, but the middle is where we will stay at the end of it all. There is a lot of evidence pointing to that direction.


DrMidnite
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: False-Positive, Texas
Joined: 12.10.2010

Jun 11 @ 3:01 PM ET
Even if assume the unlikelihood they do nothing, if

1. Hart gets back to himself and

2. They at least attempt to defend

they will likely be better. However that division is brutal so they technically could still do worse standings wise even the 2 things mentioned happen.

I never wish for injury but I'm tired of picking 14-22 every season. They need high end young talent teetering on stardom to enter the mix.

- Pelle31Forever


Is Seattle guaranteed the first pick next year?

Either way, there are 3 guys very highly rated and the odds of an awful team getting a top 3 pick are pretty good.

Start by signing, then trading Coutourier now to get max value.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Jun 11 @ 3:06 PM ET
I didn’t fact check your draft #’s but if true it fits my theory on drafting goalies in round 1 every 5-6 years. Going back to price draft or there about we would’ve drafted 4 top goalies in draft and maybe a few more later rounds. So say 8 goalies we would’ve picked. That would leave 12 picks(chances) at other positions. Not saying they would’ve hit on any of them. For educational purposes only. The more I think about it unless someone drops that shouldn’t to pick 13 if that wallstedt kid is still on board that should be the pick.
- Stayin alive


So checking on this theory of basically giving the goalie position a draft priority every 5-6 years...normal year BPA then priority is RD, C, LD, W and G. On the priority year, it’s BPA top G, RD, C, LD and W. However, you pick at least one new goalie prospect per draft.

Okay, if I look at goalie in a longer view, by 3 years after draft, I should know if they project to be at minimum AHL starter (3rd depth) to possibly NHL backup, NHL tandem or starter. In 2-3 more years, it should be clear if the projection was right. The 5-6 years should be measured from the latest prospect goalie to meet the criteria. For the Flyers, that is Ersson (drafted in 2018). The only goalie selected in the draft after him was Ross (no longer with the Flyers) in 2019. Based on the one goalie per year requirement and since the Flyers did not select a goalie in last year’s draft, this coming draft should be a two goalie draft for them. However, the goalie priority year is 5 years after Ersson right now, so that’s not until 2023 at the earliest. If you choose a goalie high, when you don’t even need it, you are also missing on your best shot at a prospect for the other 4 positions needed. Unless the BPA, all things considered, happens to be a top goalie, this isn’t the year to prioritize it higher, but goalie is definitely a priority to get somewhere in the draft, maybe twice.

Just think about this...if only 2 top prospect goalies are projected per draft and 32 teams need one every 5 to 6 years, the math doesn’t quite work out. However, each team is still selecting 1 or 2 goalies later in the draft and some of those pan out. Certainly, some goalies will play more than 10-12 years in the NHL so you have to think of these as averages. However, there are certainly far less than a dozen teams that lack two NHL caliber goalies so those other guys drafted and signed beyond the top prospects are just as important to the goaltending landscape.

Flyers might not even keep the 1st round pick spot so it’s probably irrelevant this year.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jun 11 @ 3:24 PM ET
How were the crowds ? Casinos full? Shows? Restaurants? Details. Curious how it was
- Stayin alive


Everything was packed! We stayed at the Venetian and I would recommend it.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 11 @ 3:31 PM ET
Even if assume the unlikelihood they do nothing, if

1. Hart gets back to himself and

2. They at least attempt to defend

they will likely be better. However that division is brutal so they technically could still do worse standings wise even the 2 things mentioned happen.

I never wish for injury but I'm tired of picking 14-22 every season. They need high end young talent teetering on stardom to enter the mix.

- Pelle31Forever



They got a gift in 2017, and it turned into a poop show. Picking at the top of the draft guarantees nothing.
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 11 @ 3:45 PM ET
So checking on this theory of basically giving the goalie position a draft priority every 5-6 years...normal year BPA then priority is RD, C, LD, W and G. On the priority year, it’s BPA top G, RD, C, LD and W. However, you pick at least one new goalie prospect per draft.

Okay, if I look at goalie in a longer view, by 3 years after draft, I should know if they project to be at minimum AHL starter (3rd depth) to possibly NHL backup, NHL tandem or starter. In 2-3 more years, it should be clear if the projection was right. The 5-6 years should be measured from the latest prospect goalie to meet the criteria. For the Flyers, that is Ersson (drafted in 2018). The only goalie selected in the draft after him was Ross (no longer with the Flyers) in 2019. Based on the one goalie per year requirement and since the Flyers did not select a goalie in last year’s draft, this coming draft should be a two goalie draft for them. However, the goalie priority year is 5 years after Ersson right now, so that’s not until 2023 at the earliest. If you choose a goalie high, when you don’t even need it, you are also missing on your best shot at a prospect for the other 4 positions needed. Unless the BPA, all things considered, happens to be a top goalie, this isn’t the year to prioritize it higher, but goalie is definitely a priority to get somewhere in the draft, maybe twice.

Just think about this...if only 2 top prospect goalies are projected per draft and 32 teams need one every 5 to 6 years, the math doesn’t quite work out. However, each team is still selecting 1 or 2 goalies later in the draft and some of those pan out. Certainly, some goalies will play more than 10-12 years in the NHL so you have to think of these as averages. However, there are certainly far less than a dozen teams that lack two NHL caliber goalies so those other guys drafted and signed beyond the top prospects are just as important to the goaltending landscape.

Flyers might not even keep the 1st round pick spot so it’s probably irrelevant this year.

- NC Flyers Fan


My theory is based on a few things
1) I only thought of it because the trend over last 25+ years is to NOT take goalies in round 1 due to length to develop and %that miss.

2) the theory in drafting every 4-5-6 years ONLY applies to the top goalie (sometimes2)goalie prospect for that year. No other goalie should be risked taking round 1

3)goalie should always be priority #1… you build from the net out. This would maximize chances of hitting on goalie hugely. For example look at how many goalies been picked by philly over last 30 year without a hit except maybe Roman and hart. If you go back 30 years and invest 1st round pick every about 5 years you’d have 6 chances at stud goalie. More than likely would’ve hit on at least 2 or 3 maybe more during that time.

4) now if more and more teams take goalies in round 1 again this theory becomes harder to adhere to because you can’t move assets to accomplish it. Well you can but at what cost? I wouldn’t risk that.

5) for example philly picks 13 this year it’s been 5 years since hart drafted so take the top goalie prospect( as long as he’s relatively highly rated at goalie)(if prospect pool not really good you either do this year 4 or 6) so wallstedt should be the pick if there at 13. There is talk detroit might take him. I wouldn’t add assets to trade up to 6 to take him. Only if he’s there at 13. If not next year you try again.

6) this theory only applies to goalie position as it is only 1 player at position. Don’t think it would work for d or f. If it’s not goalie year round 1 you always take bpa approach because players not on nhl team for usually 3 years or so and roster changes by time they get there
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 11 @ 3:46 PM ET
Everything was packed! We stayed at the Venetian and I would recommend it.
- bmeltzer

Any shows and stuff open? Or still masked out everywhere?
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 11 @ 3:47 PM ET
They got a gift in 2017, and it turned into a poop show. Picking at the top of the draft guarantees nothing.
- PLindbergh31


When given a gift like that you swing for fences. Unfortunately they sacrifice flyed with safe pick. That’s on the team not being at top
Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 11 @ 3:49 PM ET
They got a gift in 2017, and it turned into a poop show. Picking at the top of the draft guarantees nothing.
- PLindbergh31


What would’ve been interesting is if we picked 1 and took nico what would’ve devils done? Would they have picked nopa 2 or the d ? Curious if anyone remembers pre lottery announcement if devils said much
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 11 @ 4:01 PM ET
2) the theory in drafting every 4-5-6 years ONLY applies to the top goalie (sometimes2)goalie prospect for that year. No other goalie should be risked taking round 1
- Stayin alive


Flyers took the top goalie in 2016...

2017 Jake Oettinger (26th-overall)
2016 Carter Hart (48th-overall)
2015 Ilya Samsonov (22th-overall)
2014 Mason MacDonald (34th-overall)
2013 Zach Fucale (36th-overall)
2012 Andrey Vasilevskiy (19th-overall)
2011 Magnus Hellberg (38th-overall)
2010 Jack Campbell (11th-overall)
2009 Mikko Koskinen (31st-overall)
2008 Chet Pickard (18th-overall)
2007 Joel Gilstedt (36th-overall)
2006 Jonathan Bernier (11th-overall)
2005 Carey Price (5th-overall)
2004 Al Montoya (6th-overall)
2003 Marc-Andre Fleury (1st-overall)
2002 Kari Lehtonen (2nd-overall)
2001 Pascal Leclaire (8th-overall)
2000 Rick DiPietro (1st-overall)


And as you can see from the rest of this list, your chance of landing a franchise goalie by just taking the top-rated 18-yo yields about a 11-12% success rate (only Vasilevskiy and Price really qualify). Now imagine how low your success rate would be if you just randomly selected years to target a goalie on top of that.

Stayin alive
Joined: 06.10.2021

Jun 11 @ 4:12 PM ET
Flyers took the top goalie in 2016...

2017 Jake Oettinger (26th-overall)
2016 Carter Hart (48th-overall)
2015 Ilya Samsonov (22th-overall)
2014 Mason MacDonald (34th-overall)
2013 Zach Fucale (36th-overall)
2012 Andrey Vasilevskiy (19th-overall)
2011 Magnus Hellberg (38th-overall)
2010 Jack Campbell (11th-overall)
2009 Mikko Koskinen (31st-overall)
2008 Chet Pickard (18th-overall)
2007 Joel Gilstedt (36th-overall)
2006 Jonathan Bernier (11th-overall)
2005 Carey Price (5th-overall)
2004 Al Montoya (6th-overall)
2003 Marc-Andre Fleury (1st-overall)
2002 Kari Lehtonen (2nd-overall)
2001 Pascal Leclaire (8th-overall)
2000 Rick DiPietro (1st-overall)


And as you can see from the rest of this list, your chance of landing a franchise goalie by just taking the top-rated 18-yo yields about a 11-12% success rate (only Vasilevskiy and Price really qualify). Now imagine how low your success rate would be if you just randomly selected years to target a goalie on top of that.


- Tomahawk

Your list is the actual drafted players NOT necessarily the top goalie prospect as I see Gibson not even on your list. Again I’d look at top 1 or 2 goalie prospects as some years there are more than 1. Every year is not going to have top prospects. That’s why around the 4-5-6 year mark you track the prospects. Generally speaking the future top prospects are known a few years out and easily trackable and can easily be targeted for and planned for
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 11 @ 4:19 PM ET
Your list is the actual drafted players NOT necessarily the top goalie prospect as I see Gibson not even on your list. Again I’d look at top 1 or 2 goalie prospects as some years there are more than 1. Every year is not going to have top prospects. That’s why around the 4-5-6 year mark you track the prospects. Generally speaking the future top prospects are known a few years out and easily trackable and can easily be targeted for and planned for
- Stayin alive


Not sure what difference John Gibson would make.

It's already nearly impossible to predict how good a goalie's gonna be at age 17-18, much less 14-15. You can't build your draft strategy around that.

You only take a goalie when your scouts are super convinced that they're special, or when the relative odds of success between the available skaters and goalies are a wash at a given pick, which is usually in round 3+.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jun 11 @ 4:24 PM ET
Any shows and stuff open? Or still masked out everywhere?
- Stayin alive


All the signage says masks recommended for non-vaccinated visitors but it's strictly honor system and relatively few people wore them. In Uber rides, masks are still required. Most businesses are open at full capacity and regular hours. Shows are starting up again but not nearly as many as pre-Covid are currently running. By late summer, they will.
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