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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: As Advertised
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bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Jun 8 @ 12:56 PM ET
IF Dach can become the version of the bubble playoff Dach we saw last summer, he will be perfectly OK. Kid had a rough year. Broke his wrist and obviously never felt "right"

Far too early to play revisionist history on that pick. I am very curious to see if Caufield's shot and career follow a similar path to say.......DeBrincat.

- SteveRain


Agreed. Need to wait a few more years before arriving at any conclusions. That being said let me jump to one and say that I doubt Caufield ever sees PK time like DCat.

Let's hope someone falls to the Hawks in this draft that can be a real top 6 difference maker. I think that is the Hawks biggest hole in the prospect pool. I don't think there is anyone that opposing teams really have to fear in the forward group (aside from Kane).

Let's not settle for Reichel being the next Sharp either. How about he becomes the next Hossa.



Ztra
Joined: 06.21.2018

Jun 8 @ 1:04 PM ET
Agreed. Need to wait a few more years before arriving at any conclusions. That being said let me jump to one and say that I doubt Caufield ever sees PK time like DCat.

Let's hope someone falls to the Hawks in this draft that can be a real top 6 difference maker. I think that is the Hawks biggest hole in the prospect pool. I don't think there is anyone that opposing teams really have to fear in the forward group (aside from Kane).

Let's not settle for Reichel being the next Sharp either. How about he becomes the next Hossa.


- bhawks2241


I doubt we see another Hossa in our lifetime.
oldduffman
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.06.2013

Jun 8 @ 1:20 PM ET
According to Dreger, Kings are looking to trade for 2 top 6 forwards. Would Kubalik qualify?
- LAHawk

Really who cares about the True Nothing Div . Montreal will not win a game in the upcoming series .
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Jun 8 @ 1:25 PM ET
Can teams trade now? I think they can correct? I think the trade deadline has to do with the lastest you can make a trade and they can be eligible for playoffs. should be a real interesting 2 months. between the flat cap, protectin list, EXP draft, buyouts ( should be more then normal IMO) and the lack of scouting for this draft. the last draft by the hawks was solid. Reichel, Drew C, Laggert, Kaiser, Kutil phillips, Yetman, Crevier, the only player I would say might have disappointed was Krutil. and Phillips and kaiser in a redraft would probably go a round or 2 higher.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jun 8 @ 1:33 PM ET
Still a dumped player more than one way to find good players out there. Stan should go after guys he can sign at fair prices young enough to be around. As has been said, can't draft your way to a winning team have to look under every rock.
- rpeters01

Kiefer bellows or bode wilde young players that come to mine.
Hawks take ladd contract and bellows or wilde for a 4th round draft pick or something along those lines.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Jun 8 @ 1:47 PM ET
According to Dreger, Kings are looking to trade for 2 top 6 forwards. Would Kubalik qualify?
- LAHawk

Only to Hawks fans.
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Jun 8 @ 1:53 PM ET
I thought the announcers said Montreal hasn't trailed in a game since game 4 against Toronto.
- Spec41971

They did. It's been 7 full games plus OT time since they trailed. I just thought it was impressive that they completed a series without trailing (even if it was only Winnipeg).
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Jun 8 @ 1:54 PM ET
Kiefer bellows or bode wilde young players that come to mine.
Hawks take ladd contract and bellows or wilde for a 4th round draft pick or something along those lines.

- Scott1977

What are the 5 worst expiring contracts for next year? We have plenty of space, hopefully Stan will kick the tires on some of them.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 8 @ 1:58 PM ET
I would rather sign Casey Cizekas as a UFA from the Islanders who unless they trade someone can't afford him. Believe it or not the Isle's have as much a cap problem next year as any team in the league. Even if they use Boyckuk's $5 mil. LTIR before the season, that is all they have in cap space to sign RFA's Sorokin, Pelich, and Beavillier. Unless Stan can wiggle a trade for Beavillier, that would be a nice top 6 winger to snag.

EDIT: Isle's are in worse shape, they can't bury Andrew Ladd on the taxi squad. So the Hawks get Ladd back a third time, Beauvillier for Strome?

- LAHawk

If the Hawks take Ladd back for a 3rd tour of duty, then definitely ask for an impact roster player, highly rated prospect, or 1st rounder depending on what is sent to the Isles.

Or swap out Ladd and possibly see if taking on Boychuk's $6M before his contract expires.

Roster plays who would be attactive are of course Dobson, Wahlstrom, Beauvillier, and Cizikas. Everyone else is $5M or more per year and some for a lot of term left.

As for highly rated prospects, their system isn't that strong as Dobson and Wahlstrom are already playing in the NHL. Wilde needs to improve in his end. Bellows is similar needing to be better without the puck.

The Isles don't have a 1st rounder this year which would be fine since next year's draft is supposedly deeper on talent.

Again, it depends what assets Chicago sends their way.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 8 @ 2:00 PM ET
What are the 5 worst expiring contracts for next year? We have plenty of space, hopefully Stan will kick the tires on some of them.
- tvetter

Johnny Boychuk is up there at $6M with one year left. So is P.K. Subban at $9M.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 8 @ 2:01 PM ET
He's tried that with Strome, Nylander Borgstrom and Stillman. Nothing wrong with that strategy. Just have to keep finding the right players.

Ways to add talent besides the draft...

Take advantage of other teams cap problems and acquire a large dollar contract as long as there is a sweetener.

UFA - players young and good enough to sign won't hit UFA until they are 27 or 28.

RFA - players younger than 26 or 27 require an offer sheet (at cost of draft picks) or acquire via trade.

Sign undrafted Euro and college players. Keep mining the Euro talent.

- boilermaker100

Great post. This is the strategy to follow in order to stay the course with a rebuild based on youth.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jun 8 @ 2:31 PM ET
Right. The argument (among a few) put forth was that Zadorov couldn't complete a stretch pass to save his life, hence the notion that he should not be retained. If the rest of the team is not aware enough to be in position to break out, why is that a stain on Z?
- Chunk


Zadorov's issue isn't that he can't make a pass it is that he is not a very good defender and doesn't have a lot of redeemable qualities other than being a large guy who can occasionally catch someone unawares with a big hit.
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Jun 8 @ 2:34 PM ET
Oh I have patience with Boqvist I just wish the team had shown some he has been pushed way to quickly and what's left of his confidence is eroding every day .Sure he has shown flash's of good hockey then is crippled by bad plays and heavy hits .He needed to be given time in the A to developed learn the position adapt to smaller ice turn those flashes into consistent play .He IMO is the perfect example of bad asset management .
- oldduffman

How has his confidence been ruined? He got better as the season went along and was the best dman many nights. His durability is another question
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Jun 8 @ 2:42 PM ET
Johnny Boychuk is up there at $6M with one year left. So is P.K. Subban at $9M.
- Theo Fox

Boychuck would be a good one to trade for, Ladd has too many years left for me. The devils have a ton of space do they don't need to trade Subban.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jun 8 @ 2:45 PM ET
So, none of the Hawks D-men should get resigned or a bump in pay because no one could complete a stretch pass. Every single defenseman on this team had a big problem with it.

Yes the team was considering trading him as they should have been with almost every player on the team if the right package came along. With where they are right now that is the best course of action.

To say that he is just big and hits people is to be willfully ignorant and dismissive of all of the stats and analytics (not just the fancy ones). Best GA/60 of any regular D on the team. Best GF% (GF/GA) of any regular D on the team. Those aren't fancy stats, those are simple ones.

THIS IS NOT AN ENDORSEMENT OF Z. This is simply stating the facts about his play. Yes, he was a disaster with the puck on his blade. Yes, he is slow to process. However, the outcomes when he was on the ice were better than every other regular skating D on this team. That is admittedly a low bar, but it is what it is (especially taking into account that he was the 5v5 ice-time leader on the back end). I wouldn't have a big problem with bringing him back on a 2-3 year deal, on a minor raise, as long as there aren't any NMC/NTC.

- Chunk


Those should line up with things like corsi, expected goals for, shot shares at 5v5. As well as the eye test. The outcomes not lining up with that looks like more of an outlier. de Haan has the same thing only his fancy stats are better with his GF% much lower.

If you look at Boqvist, Murphy and Keith (non of which is pretty) the 'outcome' stats line up with the advanced stats for the most part and show a consistent level of mediocre (generous) or bad.

Isolating a stat or two doesn't really paint a good picture. Nor does relying on stats alone - you have to get a look at the player playing.

In my interpretation of the information available, regardless of outcomes, a player like Zadorov is more likely to be detrimental to team defense over the course of a 2-5 year contract based on all of those things put together.
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

Jun 8 @ 2:50 PM ET
Oh I have patience with Boqvist I just wish the team had shown some he has been pushed way to quickly and what's left of his confidence is eroding every day .Sure he has shown flash's of good hockey then is crippled by bad plays and heavy hits .He needed to be given time in the A to developed learn the position adapt to smaller ice turn those flashes into consistent play .He IMO is the perfect example of bad asset management .
- oldduffman

I don’t disagree but that’s water under the bridge. Now it’s NHL or bust.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 8 @ 2:59 PM ET
Boychuck would be a good one to trade for, Ladd has too many years left for me. The devils have a ton of space do they don't need to trade Subban.
- GPHawksfan

I would definitely kick the tires on a deal for Boychuk's contract plus assets.

Subban's deal is one year but too high at $9M plus, like you said, the Devils are fine cap wise.

There's also Kesler with $6.875M left for one more year with the Ducks. Their cap may be fine once they sort out their free agents, particularly Getzlaf and Backes who made a combined $13M.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jun 8 @ 3:02 PM ET
I would definitely kick the tires on a deal for Boychuk's contract plus assets.

Subban's deal is one year but too high at $9M plus, like you said, the Devils are fine cap wise.

There's also Kesler with $6.875M left for one more year with the Ducks. Their cap may be fine once they sort out their free agents, particularly Getzlaf and Backes who made a combined $13M.

- Theo Fox


Backes has retired
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Jun 8 @ 3:12 PM ET
I would definitely kick the tires on a deal for Boychuk's contract plus assets.

Subban's deal is one year but too high at $9M plus, like you said, the Devils are fine cap wise.

There's also Kesler with $6.875M left for one more year with the Ducks. Their cap may be fine once they sort out their free agents, particularly Getzlaf and Backes who made a combined $13M.

- Theo Fox

There is Drouin in Montreal too. I'm not sure what is going on with him though. He left the team for mental health reasons or something like that. They'd like to shed his money I'm sure, but that isn't just one more year on that contract. Maybe he can still play somewhere else.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jun 8 @ 3:12 PM ET
Those should line up with things like corsi, expected goals for, shot shares at 5v5. As well as the eye test. The outcomes not lining up with that looks like more of an outlier. de Haan has the same thing only his fancy stats are better with his GF% much lower.

If you look at Boqvist, Murphy and Keith (non of which is pretty) the 'outcome' stats line up with the advanced stats for the most part and show a consistent level of mediocre (generous) or bad.

Isolating a stat or two doesn't really paint a good picture. Nor does relying on stats alone - you have to get a look at the player playing.

In my interpretation of the information available, regardless of outcomes, a player like Zadorov is more likely to be detrimental to team defense over the course of a 2-5 year contract based on all of those things put together.

- fattybeef


We are in agreement that Zadorov is not that good. I would say that the actual outcomes vs things like Corsi don't have to necessarily line up. If opponents are taking a lot of shots from long range or bad angles (lower percentage shots) that get on net while he is on the ice, that is beneficial. This is likely why many players really don't like the advanced stat arguments. Q mentioned this fact in a couple of his last pressers while he was still coach.

At this point, the only real argument that I would have for keeping him would be that the Hawks d-group isn't all that good (yet) and don't really have anyone else that would make an opponent think twice about skating between the dots. There is something to be said for that, but I admit it's not much.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jun 8 @ 3:15 PM ET
According to Dreger, Kings are looking to trade for 2 top 6 forwards. Would Kubalik qualify?
- LAHawk


If the Kings are doing an about face and trying to be more competitive now, it will be very interesting to see how aggressive they are in adding the players they need. If they aren't extremely careful, they could turn into the Coyotes really quick. Man, that Taylor Hall deal was stupid.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jun 8 @ 3:24 PM ET
There is Drouin in Montreal too. I'm not sure what is going on with him though. He left the team for mental health reasons or something like that. They'd like to shed his money I'm sure, but that isn't just one more year on that contract. Maybe he can still play somewhere else.
- GPHawksfan


There is nothing reported as to what is "wrong" with him, but here is the latest I found which includes some commentary on who the Habs might be looking for in a trade. It's been said a million times, but reading this, Beaudin would definitely be a part of a CHI trade if they went that route.

https://thehockeywriters....onathan-drouin-situation/
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jun 8 @ 3:41 PM ET
If the Kings are doing an about face and trying to be more competitive now, it will be very interesting to see how aggressive they are in adding the players they need. If they aren't extremely careful, they could turn into the Coyotes really quick. Man, that Taylor Hall deal was stupid.
- Chunk


LA is a star driven market (all sports), and the Kings are no different (Dionne, Gretzky, Kurri, Kopitar,) etc. etc. Besides college sports, and the weather, they compete with 2 football teams in a brand new stadium, and 2 NBA teams that share the same building. LA will always be a Laker town, and the Lakers always have 2 super stars. In order for the Kings to stay relevant, their rebuild time is over. Plus the best player Doughty said he is tired of the rebuild (already)
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 8 @ 3:43 PM ET
Backes has retired
- LAHawk

Forgot about that. Thanks for the reminder about Backes retiring!
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jun 8 @ 3:45 PM ET
There is Drouin in Montreal too. I'm not sure what is going on with him though. He left the team for mental health reasons or something like that. They'd like to shed his money I'm sure, but that isn't just one more year on that contract. Maybe he can still play somewhere else.
- GPHawksfan

I hope Drouin gets over whatever is going on in his life and resume his NHL career. For me personally, I would pass on him. He's a good player when he's 100% and focused but that's a growing question mark for him it seems.
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