Using Maher is an anecdote, not part of a broader statistical trend with which you can draw conclusions to support the idea that vaccinated can transmit in relevant numbers. The available data says the opposite.
- Sublime55
Here is your detailed statistical case then (based on the most current, and most verified data and using only common sense) for continuing to use masks and social distancing in certain settings, and for now.
1. The efficacy of the vaccines range in % from high nineties (Pfizer, Moderna, Sputnik) to eightish (Johnson &Johnson) to 70ish (Astra-Zeneca) to about 50 (The Chinese one). That means the chances of getting infected range from 5% to higher, depending on who has taken what vaccine, if at all.
But it is important to remember, even with the most effective vaccine, and even with fully vaccination, you would have no lower than a 5% chance of infection and thus of course transmission. This is the lower bound. (5% is not 0%, and very low is not impossible)
2. The
efficacy rate for the elderly tends to be lower, ranging from a low of 64% found in Denmark for Pfizer vaccine to about 94% in Israel. Thus, there is a case for wearing masks near the elderly.
3. The
efficacy rate for variants is also lower. The Indian one, which has yet to affect us substantially but is coming, is in particular to be careful about.
4. Your chances of transmission and infection are higher the larger the # of un-vaccinated people you encounter. Its like playing Russian roulette with a bullet in 1000 chambers. Pull the trigger once, your chances are 0.1%. Pull it 1000 times, and your chances of dying rise to 37%. Thus, your chances of getting/transmitting are dependent not just on your status, but also the nature of your interactions, as long as there are so many un-vaccinated.
5. Studies of the transmission potential of the vaccinated are very difficult to do right now, with so many un-vaccinated. It depends on contact tracing, and if someone is infected, how does one ensure that the only person they have been in contact with are the vaccinated?
Under the circumstances, the conventional scientific (CDC) wisdom is that your chances of transmission and infection are very low.That is indeed what the above points suggest. However, certain populations (elderly, immune compromised) and certain situations (crowds, lots of strangers) require caution and vigilance for now, and the CDC recommendations are in line with that.
The public figures probably face institutional pressure to transmit this message and urge caution. But this pressure is justified, and is line with solid, pragmatic, public health data.
I completely fail to understand why, in the face of such massive data, and in the wake of a once in many generations tragedy, that this issue should raise so much resentment and be so cloaked in politics and culture.