Yes 100% correct... the miss % on goalies is extremely high overall but the miss % on top goalies of the draft (usually 1 or 2) goalies per year is actually not bad. Like bill said this for example this wallstedt kid this year.

This leads me to my theory

So no one wants to take goalies in first round anymore because of bust %...

So I’ll start with Carey price because he was a can’t miss goalie for tracking and theory example

So price drafted in 2005, goalies generally(and shouldn’t hit nhl for 4-5 years) so they can fully develop. That’s pretty close. So if a team drafts price in 2005 (round 1) my THEORY is you have to draft the top goalie in draft in either year 5-6 after drafting price and so on... here’s why

For example had Montreal drafted top goalie prospect in 5-6 years (depending on top goalie prospect for those 2 years) they would’ve taken either campbell(2010) or Gibson (2011) Gibson was the higher touted of the 2 at the time. So they should’ve taken Gibson in 2011.

Price would’ve just begun his nhl career and Gibson would’ve started his development. Fast forward 5 years you know how price on bridge deal and Gibson as backup.

If the backup is good (which Gibson is ) then you trade price instead of giving huge contract. Not much difference between the 2 goalies. Except massive money at that point.

So fast forward had they followed this path and drafted Gibson in 2011 you need to draft top goalie prospect in either ‘16 or ‘17

That was either hart ‘16 or oettinger’17.

And so on ....

In this theory hart of drafted in 2016 he wouldn’t have needed to be up yet until this year. Montreal would most likely have Gibson entering prime and hart backup and so it goes as would’ve been when they had price entering prime and Gibson backup.

The miss ratio is much lower at the most important position in hockey (goalie) I think under this theory. As bill pointed out about picking wallstedt fits my theory to a tee. Hart in ‘16 wallstedt’21. Granted hart is a little farther ahead due to being called up so early (which almost never happens at goalie position) but it still fits because hart not getting massive deal anytime soon although it does throw timeline off a bit
- Im back

If you look back too under my theory isle drafted dipetro in 2000. Had they followed my theory they’d had drafted price in 2005 and never gave that ridiculous contract out

Dominik Hasek - 10th round pick
Patrick Roy - 3rd round pick
Marty Brodeur - late 1st round pick
Ken Dryden - 3rd round pick
Bernie Parent - never drafted
Billy Smith - 5th round pick
Tony Esposito - never drafted
Ed Belfour - never drafted
Curtis Joseph - never drafted
Ron Hextall - 6th round pick

-------------------------------------------

Mark Andre-Fleury - 1st overall
Grant Fuhr - 8th overall
Carey Price - 5th overall
- DraftandDestroy

Under hit or miss examples how many were lucky picks? Under fleury/Fuhr/price you see how it fits my theory perfectly? You have to take the top goalie prospect or you need to depend on a lottery ticket

The draft didn't exist when Bernie Parent was a junior aged player for the Niagara Falls Flyers. The Bruins owned his NHL rights from the time he was 16 years old.
- bmeltzer

Right, but the Flyers took him in the 1967 expansion draft, correct? Then traded him to somewhere, and got him back. Forget how the story goes?

Dominik Hasek - 10th round pick
Patrick Roy - 3rd round pick
Marty Brodeur - late 1st round pick
Ken Dryden - 3rd round pick
Bernie Parent - never drafted
Billy Smith - 5th round pick
Tony Esposito - never drafted
Ed Belfour - never drafted
Curtis Joseph - never drafted
Ron Hextall - 6th round pick

-------------------------------------------

Mark Andre-Fleury - 1st overall
Grant Fuhr - 8th overall
Carey Price - 5th overall
- DraftandDestroy

Can you get a great goaltender in other rounds? Absolutely. Can you also get a franchise goaltender in the 1st round too? Absolutely.

The point being taking a goaltender in the first round is not a waste, it depends on who you are selecting. Some goaltenders have been selected in the 1st round and never made it, just like thousands of other players, but the highly regarded ones tend to be good with less exceptions. A team shouldn't pick any goaltender in the first round, you pick a really good one.

Carey Price (2005)
Tuukka Rask (2005)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (2012)
Ilya Samsonov (2015)
Spencer Knight (2019)
Yaroslav Askarov (2020)

Can you get a great goaltender in other rounds? Absolutely. Can you also get a franchise goaltender in the 1st round too? Absolutely.

The point being taking a goaltender in the first round is not a waste, it depends on who you are selecting. Some goaltenders have been selected in the 1st round and never made it, just like thousands of other players, but the highly regarded ones tend to be good with less exceptions. A team shouldn't pick any goaltender in the first round, you pick a really good one.

Carey Price (2005)
Tuukka Rask (2005)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (2012)
Ilya Samsonov (2015)
Spencer Knight (2019)
Yaroslav Askarov (2020)
- Glak18

Yes. Fits my theory perfectly. Usually the highly touted goalie of a draft tend to be good sure there’s the off year but odds much better than drafting later rounds every year hoping. And so many picks wasted.

Yes. Fits my theory perfectly. Usually the highly touted goalie of a draft tend to be good sure there’s the off year but odds much better than drafting later rounds every year hoping. And so many picks wasted.
- Im back

To go further hart was probably top g prospect in 16 or top 2 at least.

I absolutely wouldn’t mind taking wallstedt at 13 if he’s there. Actually really smart move for the future

Yes. Fits my theory perfectly. Usually the highly touted goalie of a draft tend to be good sure there’s the off year but odds much better than drafting later rounds every year hoping. And so many picks wasted.
- Im back

Personally I don't think Wallstedt is someone you go out of your way to get with additional assets, but if he is there and no one else is jumping off the list then take him. The art of the draft is not only selecting players for the team, but also as value to acquire players you do need later by taking advantage of the depth.

To go further hart was probably top g prospect in 16 or top 2 at least.
- Im back

In Hart's defense, he played on a horrible team this year.

Doesn't excuse his play, but the rest of the team mitigated what he could do.

Can you get a great goaltender in other rounds? Absolutely. Can you also get a franchise goaltender in the 1st round too? Absolutely.

The point being taking a goaltender in the first round is not a waste, it depends on who you are selecting. Some goaltenders have been selected in the 1st round and never made it, just like thousands of other players, but the highly regarded ones tend to be good with less exceptions. A team shouldn't pick any goaltender in the first round, you pick a really good one.

Carey Price (2005)
Tuukka Rask (2005)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (2012)
Ilya Samsonov (2015)
Spencer Knight (2019)
Yaroslav Askarov (2020)
- Glak18

Notice the 5/6 year theory?
Price start 05
Campbell top g prospect 10
Samsonov’15
Askorov’20

In Hart's defense, he played on a horrible team this year.

Doesn't excuse his play, but the rest of the team mitigated what he could do.
- DrMidnite

This years team could of had Brodeur and they still would of sucked.

Personally I don't think Wallstedt is someone you go out of your way to get with additional assets, but if he is there and no one else is jumping off the list then take him. The art of the draft is not only selecting players for the team, but also as value to acquire players you do need later by taking advantage of the depth.
- Glak18

Yes it’s a moving theory but with basically no teams consistently drafting g in round 1 very doable. For example if the team is kinda bad or bad they will draft high or higher in draft you’re most likely not gonna need to move assets to pick the goalie. If you’ve already built your team and are good or great and you draft later in round 1 you more than likely have many pieces already and can move some assets to move up to take the goalie without hurting team much. Remember under the theory it’s only once every 5 or 6 years

If we draft someone and miss it is a miss.
When we miss we look at who hit.
If we hit we hit.
If player X = a miss and Y = a hit, then, what time does the train leave the station and will it carry a player to the rink that can play hockey.

There is my theory for all of you draft wizards!!

Yes 100% correct... the miss % on goalies is extremely high overall but the miss % on top goalies of the draft (usually 1 or 2) goalies per year is actually not bad. Like bill said this for example this wallstedt kid this year.

This leads me to my theory

So no one wants to take goalies in first round anymore because of bust %...

So I’ll start with Carey price because he was a can’t miss goalie for tracking and theory example

So price drafted in 2005, goalies generally(and shouldn’t hit nhl for 4-5 years) so they can fully develop. That’s pretty close. So if a team drafts price in 2005 (round 1) my THEORY is you have to draft the top goalie in draft in either year 5-6 after drafting price and so on... here’s why

For example had Montreal drafted top goalie prospect in 5-6 years (depending on top goalie prospect for those 2 years) they would’ve taken either campbell(2010) or Gibson (2011) Gibson was the higher touted of the 2 at the time. So they should’ve taken Gibson in 2011.

Price would’ve just begun his nhl career and Gibson would’ve started his development. Fast forward 5 years you know how price on bridge deal and Gibson as backup.

If the backup is good (which Gibson is ) then you trade price instead of giving huge contract. Not much difference between the 2 goalies. Except massive money at that point.

So fast forward had they followed this path and drafted Gibson in 2011 you need to draft top goalie prospect in either ‘16 or ‘17

That was either hart ‘16 or oettinger’17.

And so on ....

In this theory hart of drafted in 2016 he wouldn’t have needed to be up yet until this year. Montreal would most likely have Gibson entering prime and hart backup and so it goes as would’ve been when they had price entering prime and Gibson backup.

The miss ratio is much lower at the most important position in hockey (goalie) I think under this theory. As bill pointed out about picking wallstedt fits my theory to a tee. Hart in ‘16 wallstedt’21. Granted hart is a little farther ahead due to being called up so early (which almost never happens at goalie position) but it still fits because hart not getting massive deal anytime soon although it does throw timeline off a bit
- Im back

Problem is, the theory only works if successive goalie picks pan out. What if you take a goalie in 1st round, doesn't pan out after 5-4 years, and then you do it again, and fail again? Do you keep doing it? The world will think you are nuts.

On a similar vein, lets say your first goalie pick pans out, and your 2nd one doesn't. Then you have traded away a stud goalie about to enter his prime, and wasted a 1st on his failed replacement. Again, the world will think you are nuts.

Notice the 5/6 year theory?
Price start 05
Campbell top g prospect 10
Samsonov’15
Askorov’20
- Im back

Your "theory" is brilliant... If only no other team ever wanted to draft a top goalie prospect.

Problem is, the theory only works if successive goalie picks pan out. What if you take a goalie in 1st round, doesn't pan out after 5-4 years, and then you do it again, and fail again? Do you keep doing it? The world will think you are nuts.

On a similar vein, lets say your first goalie pick pans out, and your 2nd one doesn't. Then you have traded away a stud goalie about to enter his prime, and wasted a 1st on his failed replacement. Again, the world will think you are nuts.
- PT21

It's the same for quarterbacks. Maybe instead of a steady goalie you just cycle through guys every 3-4 years.

Can’t believe dude was quoting himself, begging people to read that “theory.” Lol

It's the same for quarterbacks. Maybe instead of a steady goalie you just cycle through guys every 3-4 years.
- DrMidnite

He did cover that base that Bender and you mention: the goalie position is different, as opposed to say, 1C or 1D and qb and so on. Its b/c the inherent risk means top flight goalies are usually available in 1st round (unlike the other positions).

When you've got a lot of run support, like the Avalanche do right now, or the Wings did in the Chris Osgood era, you don't need Hart Trophy goaltending.

Right now, if the Flyers don't get above average goaltending, they struggle.

I absolutely wouldn’t mind taking wallstedt at 13 if he’s there. Actually really smart move for the future
- Im back

Draft will be interesting. Ranking from 3-15 seems to be all over the place.

Can you get a great goaltender in other rounds? Absolutely. Can you also get a franchise goaltender in the 1st round too? Absolutely.

The point being taking a goaltender in the first round is not a waste, it depends on who you are selecting. Some goaltenders have been selected in the 1st round and never made it, just like thousands of other players, but the highly regarded ones tend to be good with less exceptions. A team shouldn't pick any goaltender in the first round, you pick a really good one.

Carey Price (2005)
Tuukka Rask (2005)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (2012)
Ilya Samsonov (2015)
Spencer Knight (2019)
Yaroslav Askarov (2020)
- Glak18

Rick DiPietro (2000)
Brent Krahn (2000)
Pascal Leclaire (2001)
Dan Blackburn (2001)
Jason Bacashihua (2001)
Kari Lehtonen (2002)
Cam Ward (2002)
Hannu Toivonen (2002)
Marc-Andre Fleury (2003)
Al Montoya (2004)
Devan Dubnyk (2004)
Marek Schwarz (2004)
Cory Schneider (2004)
Carey Price (2005)
Tuukka Rask (2005)
Jonathan Bernier (2006)
Riku Helenius (2006)
Semyon Varlamov (2006)
Leland Irving (2006)
Chet Pickard (2008)
Thomas McCollum (2008)
Jack Campbell (2010)
Mark Visentin (2010)
Andrey Vasilevskiy (2012)
Malcolm Subban (2012)
Ilya Samsonov (2015)
Jake Oettinger (2017)
Spencer Knight (2019)
Iaroslav Askarov (2020)

That's every goalie taken in the 1st-round since 2000.

There are a few really good ones there, but when you miss on a goalie, you tend to not even get an NHL player out of it.

You can say "pick the right one", but dudes like Visentin, Helenius and Campbell looked like can't miss on draft day, but continually poop the bed thereafter. Campbell's had a nice little run this season, but he was struggling in the AHL not too long ago.

Only a handful of goalies have gone in the 1st-round over the past decade. Teams have wised up to the probabilities. If I were the Flyers, I would steer clear. Especially given their track record when it comes to taking goalies higher.

He did cover that base that Bender and you mention: the goalie position is different, as opposed to say, 1C or 1D and qb and so on. Its b/c the inherent risk means top flight goalies are usually available in 1st round (unlike the other positions).
- PT21

Thank you for actually reading the theory

Problem is, the theory only works if successive goalie picks pan out. What if you take a goalie in 1st round, doesn't pan out after 5-4 years, and then you do it again, and fail again? Do you keep doing it? The world will think you are nuts.

On a similar vein, lets say your first goalie pick pans out, and your 2nd one doesn't. Then you have traded away a stud goalie about to enter his prime, and wasted a 1st on his failed replacement. Again, the world will think you are nuts.
- PT21

Under this theory and as I used price as example
So you take price and he’s good. In 5-6 years you are targeting the g top very few prospects even worthy of 1st round pick at g position. So say in price theory you decide on either campbell’10 or gibson’11 and you draft them and develop them and it’s time for them to play at nhl level. Price in theory would be entering bridge deal. So the new back up you drafted and developed you miss on. They are a complete bust. They flat out suck.... simply do not trade price.. you still have the goalie but you now pay the bigger contract and start over with the process. So Campbell or Gibson (examples used) suck in 2015 you draft again in round 1. Who was drafted in 2015? That’s the next cycle year. That was samsonov. So by roughly 2020 he’s ready to go. Is exactly what happened. Obviously the key is never give a goalie the contract price got( which no sane team does) even if you miss on 2 cycles in examples ... both the picks in either 2011/2012(whichever one you choose) and in cycle 2015 you still have options around 2020. Price would be near end of contract and career after 15 years. Which is true now in real life. So you stick to process in 2020 and draft askarov. Who should be ready to play by 2025. So you have a few years to use fa or whatever. Chances of missing on 3 straight cycles on top g prospect very small

Right, but the Flyers took him in the 1967 expansion draft, correct? Then traded him to somewhere, and got him back. Forget how the story goes?
- DraftandDestroy

Yes, Flyers took him from Boston with the 2nd overall pick of the 1967 expansion draft. In Jan of 1971, he was part of a three-team trade with the Maple Leafs and Bruins that brought a young Rick MacLeish and vet goalie Bruce Gamble to the Flyers. In 1972-73, Bernie went to the WHA and played for the Philadelphia Blazers. The next year, the Flyers reacquired Parent from the Maple Leafs.

Move up and grab one of the top 5 d men. It’s such a glaring need. It will be a circus if they take a goalie. That shouldn’t even be a question.

From what I gather this is not even a particularly strong 1st round for Centers. Move up or trade the pick for a young NHL ready player.
- hereticpride

don't bother moving up in this draft