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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Lottery Matching
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wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jun 2 @ 10:50 AM ET
How is Powers foot speed? Videos I see of him at Michigan don't so a ton of explosiveness and wonder if that will be a detriment to his pro game once he matures. Isn't he 18?
- SteveRain


He is big and doesn't have to explode.
He plays inside the system, he is not causing waves, playing inside on himself - a rookie.

He is very fluid.
At that size you will still be calling him "Seabrook" even though it is a weak comparison to a defender who always moved better than didn't deserve it in the start and height of his career.

All for defenders move well, one moves better, due to his home training, but all and Carson Lambos & Corson Ceulemans not slowpokes.
The writers in Anaheim are lighting candles that he ends up with Drysdale and a partner, and that would be something.

ands how about KRAKEN?

if if is a same grade issue do they fill a need by a home grown defenseman or take a forward? Vegas had there picks and went F , F, and then defenseman...
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Jun 2 @ 10:53 AM ET
Jone's announcement to listen to offers, doesn't put Columbus in a strong position to trade his rights.The market maybe no what he was expecting and the fit maybe more important off $ is close to equal.

Most big trades are not made until the layer and agent have a tentative agreement t in place before the deal id made.

- wiz1901


That may be true - if the Hawks are the only team interested. If the Hawks are interested they need to outbid every team interested in Jones (including the Kings, who have more prospects to deal).
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jun 2 @ 11:00 AM ET
I can understand Jones making the Hawks better, but how does Laine make the Hawks better for the cap hit he will require? With Jones and Laine, the Hawks still have a big hole in top 4 LD, and at center. And is Laine going to be OK with 14-16 minutes a night? He isn't going to be on the ice for defensive zone draws and won't play PK, and he won't be on PP1 (unless he replaces DCAT).

Also if you want to put Laine with Kane, who do you put as center (let alone ADB I assume you are having play with Toews). Dach is a horrible fit, you need a roadgrader type of center.

To me getting Jones and Laine is turning the team more into Toronto light, filling in at the edges with minimum range rookies and over the hill vets, then an actual Stanley Cup contender.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 2 @ 11:10 AM ET
I can understand Jones making the Hawks better, but how does Laine make the Hawks better for the cap hit he will require? With Jones and Laine, the Hawks still have a big hole in top 4 LD, and at center. And is Laine going to be OK with 14-16 minutes a night? He isn't going to be on the ice for defensive zone draws and won't play PK, and he won't be on PP1 (unless he replaces DCAT).

Also if you want to put Laine with Kane, who do you put as center (let alone ADB I assume you are having play with Toews). Dach is a horrible fit, you need a roadgrader type of center.

To me getting Jones and Laine is turning the team more into Toronto light, filling in at the edges with minimum range rookies and over the hill vets, then an actual Stanley Cup contender.

- LAHawk


I think we both can agree that the price proposed likely isnt enough for Columbus to do the deal.

From there.....from my vantage point.....Why couldn't Laine play a point position on the PP? Has an absolute hand cannon.

The elephant in the room for the Hawks is Toews. Is he healthy? If he is do you risk reinvesting with him in 13 months until the end of the 23 season? I think that's very much up for grabs now. LOVE JT, but his asking price, if too steep, and IF he's healthy if I am Bowman I would deal him his last year and get what you can back. The biggest detriment to JT IMO, is he needs skill around him to produce. He cant' carry guys like Kane can. I know he does a LOT of other things well but are all those Other things worth a double digit AAV cap hit? I don't see how they can be. That's part of what to me makes this hypothetical Laine trade intriguing to me as they get a piece who can help JT in the offensive zone......

Kane to me is a no brainer.

On top of the rebuild going to be very interesting to see what, if any, comes out about the hawks and the wonder twins talking new deals...especially in a flat cap world. If bowman had to pick 1.....Id pick Kane but I also get what you could get back for him as well.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jun 2 @ 11:12 AM ET
Someone here said it best a few weeks ago. If you could instill Debrincat's or Hagel's on-ice compete level into Strome's body you'd have a helluva player.
- Rota's Rooter


Awww, now you've done it. Paul can barely fit his gigantic cranium from his over inflated ego through a doorway as it is.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jun 2 @ 11:29 AM ET
I think we both can agree that the price proposed likely isnt enough for Columbus to do the deal.

From there.....from my vantage point.....Why couldn't Laine play a point position on the PP? Has an absolute hand cannon.

The elephant in the room for the Hawks is Toews. Is he healthy? If he is do you risk reinvesting with him in 13 months until the end of the 23 season? I think that's very much up for grabs now. LOVE JT, but his asking price, if too steep, and IF he's healthy if I am Bowman I would deal him his last year and get what you can back. The biggest detriment to JT IMO, is he needs skill around him to produce. He cant' carry guys like Kane can. I know he does a LOT of other things well but are all those Other things worth a double digit AAV cap hit? I don't see how they can be. That's part of what to me makes this hypothetical Laine trade intriguing to me as they get a piece who can help JT in the offensive zone......

Kane to me is a no brainer.

On top of the rebuild going to be very interesting to see what, if any, comes out about the hawks and the wonder twins talking new deals...especially in a flat cap world. If bowman had to pick 1.....Id pick Kane but I also get what you could get back for him as well.

- SteveRain


When Kane and Toews contracts are up, the Hawks have Stillman, Seabrook, and Isaak Phillips on the books. My guess is that Seabrooks contract is long gone by then. Even if you reup ADB for the $8 mil. he will be due, you have $10 mil. in committed contracts. I don not see any of the current Hawks looking at big money contracts when their RFA's are up. Dach if he turns it on, maybe $5 mil, same with Bovquist, other than that? Not that Toews and Kane are going to get $10.5 mil. for 8 years again (I can see Toews just retiring, even if healthy), but worrying about them taking up too much cap space is a non-issue, unless Stan goes stupid and just buys new furniture because he can.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 2 @ 12:03 PM ET
When Kane and Toews contracts are up, the Hawks have Stillman, Seabrook, and Isaak Phillips on the books. My guess is that Seabrooks contract is long gone by then. Even if you reup ADB for the $8 mil. he will be due, you have $10 mil. in committed contracts. I don not see any of the current Hawks looking at big money contracts when their RFA's are up. Dach if he turns it on, maybe $5 mil, same with Bovquist, other than that? Not that Toews and Kane are going to get $10.5 mil. for 8 years again (I can see Toews just retiring, even if healthy), but worrying about them taking up too much cap space is a non-issue, unless Stan goes stupid and just buys new furniture because he can.
- LAHawk



We shall see....lots of guys coming off the books the next 3 years.

This year: All RFAs, expect for Vinny
Kampf, Gaudette, Suter, Nylander, Zadorov, hagel

Next year:
RFAs: Kubalik, Strome, Dach, Hardman, Kurashev, Entwistle, Kalynuk, Boqvist,
UFAs:Murphy, DeHaan, Delia, Subban, Lankinen

2023:
RFAs: DeBrincat, Beaudin, mitchell, Regula
UFAs: Kane, Toews, Keith

Outside of Zadorov, unless he wants a deal (which he doesn't) I like bringing back all those RFAs.

Next year will be a huge year for a lot of pending RFas and UFAs as contracts come off the books.

So not only does Bowman need to evaluate who is a keeper, but then financially commit to them as well. Not an easy task.
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

Jun 2 @ 12:07 PM ET
I think we both can agree that the price proposed likely isnt enough for Columbus to do the deal.

From there.....from my vantage point.....Why couldn't Laine play a point position on the PP? Has an absolute hand cannon.

The elephant in the room for the Hawks is Toews. Is he healthy? If he is do you risk reinvesting with him in 13 months until the end of the 23 season? I think that's very much up for grabs now. LOVE JT, but his asking price, if too steep, and IF he's healthy if I am Bowman I would deal him his last year and get what you can back. The biggest detriment to JT IMO, is he needs skill around him to produce. He cant' carry guys like Kane can. I know he does a LOT of other things well but are all those Other things worth a double digit AAV cap hit? I don't see how they can be. That's part of what to me makes this hypothetical Laine trade intriguing to me as they get a piece who can help JT in the offensive zone......

Kane to me is a no brainer.

On top of the rebuild going to be very interesting to see what, if any, comes out about the hawks and the wonder twins talking new deals...especially in a flat cap world. If bowman had to pick 1.....Id pick Kane but I also get what you could get back for him as well.

- SteveRain

I very much doubt that Toews gets traded unless he’s on LTIR. If healthy he’s a Hawk and with Kane will eventually have a statue next to Hull and Mikita. When their contracts are up, I would think that they will be willing to give the Hawks a home town discount this time around, but you never know.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 2 @ 12:10 PM ET
He is big and doesn't have to explode.
He plays inside the system, he is not causing waves, playing inside on himself - a rookie.

He is very fluid.
At that size you will still be calling him "Seabrook" even though it is a weak comparison to a defender who always moved better than didn't deserve it in the start and height of his career.

All for defenders move well, one moves better, due to his home training, but all and Carson Lambos & Corson Ceulemans not slowpokes.
The writers in Anaheim are lighting candles that he ends up with Drysdale and a partner, and that would be something.

ands how about KRAKEN?

if if is a same grade issue do they fill a need by a home grown defenseman or take a forward? Vegas had there picks and went F , F, and then defenseman...

- wiz1901


Thanks Wiz.....

If Hawks land at #12, is there an impact center or Goalie in that spot? IMO, think thats the hole(s) they need to keep plugging.
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 2 @ 12:14 PM ET
I very much doubt that Toews gets traded unless he’s on LTIR. If healthy he’s a Hawk and with Kane will eventually have a statue next to Hull and Mikita. When their contracts are up, I would think that they will be willing to give the Hawks a home town discount this time around, but you never know.
- Angotti



Who knows on Toews.....Dreger had the most optimistic update we have heard a few weeks back, so lets hope that does happen.

I am not advocating trading either or both UNLESS the money asks dont work for the ROI from the team. Kane is still performing at an elite level. Toews? TONS of question marks surround him. Big gamble so will be interesting to see how Hawks approach it, IF Toews even wants to continue to playing past 2022-23...which at this point, is anyone's guess.

I do agree....those 2 for sure, and likely others from this past run, will have statues, sweater retirements in their future.
Popsghostly
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 08.11.2017

Jun 2 @ 12:19 PM ET
Here's a question for Wiz or anyone else here.

Do you think Power is more likely to be a Hedman or an Erik Johnson at the end of the day?
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jun 2 @ 12:30 PM ET
Here's a question for Wiz or anyone else here.

Do you think Power is more likely to be a Hedman or an Erik Johnson at the end of the day?

- Popsghostly



That's what I was wondering....an Alexander Diagle or Chris Gratton
Popsghostly
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheaton, IL
Joined: 08.11.2017

Jun 2 @ 12:37 PM ET
That's what I was wondering....an Alexander Diagle or Chris Gratton
- SteveRain


Or Nail Yakupov lol.

Johnson is a serviceable D but I'm sure the Blues would rather had taken Tazer, Backstrom or Kessel.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jun 2 @ 12:40 PM ET
A throw of the darts has me expecting (with great confidence) the Hawks land the 9th pick. Trade it tonight for Jonesy and rights to Laine. Kaner gets his LW/right shot combo.

Hawks send:
1st pick 2021
Vegas pick 2021
Strome
Murphy

Hawks get:
Jonesy
Rights to Laine

- Assman22

If Stan does want Jones, just wait a year and sign him as a FA. Doesn't cost anything other than $. And, even with Jones, the Hawks aren't competing for a Cup in 21-22, it's another growth and development year.
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

Jun 2 @ 12:41 PM ET
Here's a question for Wiz or anyone else here.

Do you think Power is more likely to be a Hedman or an Erik Johnson at the end of the day?

- Popsghostly

If the Hawks get him he’ll be like EJ, otherwise he’ll turn out more like Hedman, because, you know, Stan.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Jun 2 @ 12:59 PM ET
Here's a question for Wiz or anyone else here.

Do you think Power is more likely to be a Hedman or an Erik Johnson at the end of the day?

- Popsghostly

It’s unlikely that anyone here can make that projection because NHL scouts and GMs get it wrong many times.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Jun 2 @ 1:13 PM ET
If Stan does want Jones, just wait a year and sign him as a FA. Doesn't cost anything other than $. And, even with Jones, the Hawks aren't competing for a Cup in 21-22, it's another growth and development year.
- scottak


Jones is eligible to sign his next contract once the new league year starts (in July, typically). The Jackets will get the most return if the new team signs him to a new deal as part of the trade. The new team isn't gonna load up the return if they only have him for a year. At the trade deadline, a contender may do so. Perhaps they'll trade him then, but that involves a risk of injury. So, most likely, imo, the trade will be immediately followed up by a new contract. Which would mean he wouldn't become available to the Hawks.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Jun 2 @ 1:14 PM ET
It’s unlikely that anyone here can make that projection because NHL scouts and GMs get it wrong many times.
- paulr


Well, not accurately.....
BMoreHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 07.09.2019

Jun 2 @ 1:17 PM ET
Seems like there’s a few here who are confused about how the lottery works. Only the first 2 picks are selected by lottery (in former years it was the first 3). If the hawks do not win one of those picks then they remain at 12, UNLESS someone behind them wins one of the first 2 picks to jump ahead of them. Then they would pick at 13 or possibly 14 if 2 teams jump them ( tho the odds of that are astronomically low).
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jun 2 @ 1:30 PM ET
If Stan does want Jones, just wait a year and sign him as a FA. Doesn't cost anything other than $. And, even with Jones, the Hawks aren't competing for a Cup in 21-22, it's another growth and development year.
- scottak

Any team that trades for jones will be a sign and trade acquisition.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Jun 2 @ 1:37 PM ET
Seems like there’s a few here who are confused about how the lottery works. Only the first 2 picks are selected by lottery (in former years it was the first 3). If the hawks do not win one of those picks then they remain at 12, UNLESS someone behind them wins one of the first 2 picks to jump ahead of them. Then they would pick at 13 or possibly 14 if 2 teams jump them ( tho the odds of that are astronomically low).
- BMoreHawks


This is correct. The Hawks are in the eleven spot right now (because of AZ losing their pick). They will have one of the following picks - 1, 2, 11, 12, or 13.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Jun 2 @ 1:39 PM ET
Any team that trades for jones will be a sign and trade acquisition.
- Scott1977


Unless they trade him at the trade deadline next year. As a top pair defenseman on an expiring deal, he'd bring a serious haul then.
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Jun 2 @ 1:40 PM ET
Seems like there’s a few here who are confused about how the lottery works. Only the first 2 picks are selected by lottery (in former years it was the first 3). If the hawks do not win one of those picks then they remain at 12, UNLESS someone behind them wins one of the first 2 picks to jump ahead of them. Then they would pick at 13 or possibly 14 if 2 teams jump them ( tho the odds of that are astronomically low).
- BMoreHawks

They're actually going to pick 11 because Phoenix doesn't get a pick this year they're just included in the draft lottery
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Jun 2 @ 1:41 PM ET
This is correct. The Hawks are in the eleven spot right now (because of AZ losing their pick). They will have one of the following picks - 1, 2, 11, 12, or 13.
- mohel

I just tried the draft simulator and the Hawks moved up to #2 the first time I tried it. If this happens on Wednesday I’m buying a lottery ticket. And if I win the $70M CDN jackpot, I’ll buy you a Molson Golden and a shot of The Macallan Gold.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Jun 2 @ 1:45 PM ET
I just tried the draft simulator and the Hawks moved up to #2 the first time I tried it. If this happens on Wednesday I’m buying a lottery ticket. And if I win the $70M CDN jackpot, I’ll buy you a Molson Golden and a shot of The Macallan Gold.
- paulr


Molson Golden? Only Bob drinks that swill! Of course, I'll still drink it....
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