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Forums :: Blog World :: Roger Mussa: Meghan Duggan hired by the Devils and Draft Lottery Odds
Author Message
bikeguy99
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 09.05.2017

May 23 @ 2:27 PM ET
What's the conversation rate of a 3rd round pick to being an NHL roster player. It's pretty low. While I agree that the handling of Butcher was poor and he wasn't nearly as bad as his play time suggests, I think to say Sieganthaler is just a bad player because of arbitrary stats like +/- and his raw point totals (especially when he isn't an offensive minded player) doesn't show a fair representation of him as a player. He is a defensive player with solid skating ability and makes good first passes out of the zone. He is never going to be an all-star type player but for a 3rd round draft pick he is a solid pick up. He is basically everything Mueller was supposed to be but we traded less to get him and he is just better in general.
- Pomegrant


It can be a Clark or Walsh if we are using recent comparisons. Otherwise, Sharan Bratt, Wood, Maltsev, Daws, Schmid have panned out fairly well for picks behind that. If you value a 3rd as a throw-away, then half our roster wouldn't exist.

And I disagree that Seig was our top shutdown guy in his 8 game stint. Murray was hands down our top shutdown, and Butch even mustered up better defensive stats in that period of time. Like I said before with examples, we have packaged our 3rd's in trades past to actually acquire guys who play top in the top 6, or top 4D. Murray was a 5th well spent. No this isn't a major set-back, but it wasn't a meaningless pick. I hope you guys get the chance to say "i told you so". I just don't like the implications that Murray is free to leave, and Butch may ride the pine in the press box so this 24 year old can continue his medial production (13 points through 105 NHL games, and 18 points through 109 AHL games). He was the worste +/- Cap on their roster this year, and deadlast on our roster during his 8 game stint. I know it a hated stat, but when it is a stat that keeps reflecting on one person, it is room for concern.

He is a guy you can acquire during UFA, and not spend a pick, or have to leave another player exposed during expansion. Simple as that, not trying to make a massive debate. At least Fitz was able to get a comparable return for Kuli.
Pomegrant
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 01.18.2010

May 23 @ 2:55 PM ET
I'm not saying a 3rd round draft pick is worthless and you should just give them away. I'm saying that the chance they become a regular NHLer is pretty low compared to first and second round picks. Using a 3rd for a guaranteed roster player is not a bad trade off, but nobody is claiming that you can't get talented players in the 3rd round of the draft.

+/- is still a terrible stat, and so are counting totals especially for a defensive defenseman. He's not going to get a lot of pluses because he isn't going to aid in production of goals. Also, everybody still gets minuses because nobody has a spotless record in goals against. So what happens is that his numbers are just skewed minus. That's why people are trending to use advanced stats so these types of players who look bad with traditional counting stats can be fairly evaluated.

I think it's reasonable to doubt him as a player being thrust into an expanded Top-4 role because he's been a bottom pairing defenseman during his entire NHL career. Yes, his body of work is small and he needs to prove himself to be a good player. I just like his potential upside and think he could be a nice fit for this roster. Even if he doesn't pan out it only cost a 3rd instead of some of the other trades we've made that sold off a lot of second round picks which have much greater impact.
Queenie_5_hole
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 05.01.2015

May 24 @ 10:17 AM ET
I'm not saying a 3rd round draft pick is worthless and you should just give them away. I'm saying that the chance they become a regular NHLer is pretty low compared to first and second round picks. Using a 3rd for a guaranteed roster player is not a bad trade off, but nobody is claiming that you can't get talented players in the 3rd round of the draft.

+/- is still a terrible stat, and so are counting totals especially for a defensive defenseman. He's not going to get a lot of pluses because he isn't going to aid in production of goals. Also, everybody still gets minuses because nobody has a spotless record in goals against. So what happens is that his numbers are just skewed minus. That's why people are trending to use advanced stats so these types of players who look bad with traditional counting stats can be fairly evaluated.

I think it's reasonable to doubt him as a player being thrust into an expanded Top-4 role because he's been a bottom pairing defenseman during his entire NHL career. Yes, his body of work is small and he needs to prove himself to be a good player. I just like his potential upside and think he could be a nice fit for this roster. Even if he doesn't pan out it only cost a 3rd instead of some of the other trades we've made that sold off a lot of second round picks which have much greater impact.

- Pomegrant


He just turned 24 years old so he should be able to help us now and thru the rebuild. He was projected as a possible 1st round pick (who slid to the late second round) and he's inexpensive and about to be a RFA. So he was good value. He's friends with our team captain and *should* be defensively sound. He's 6'3 and 211 lbs so he' not a lightweight. Not saying he's particularly physical but he has the size (and hopefully strength) to not get pushed off the puck. So there is a lot to like about him.

That said, we need to let him come to training camp and give him some time to see if he's a good fit for this team. I'm not crazy about the add and didn't think he looked particularly good but it makes a lot of sense.

On the other hand, I didn't think it would have been horrible to give Mirco Mueller a shot under Lindy Ruff. I'm pretty sure he would have been at least as good as Tennyson and maybe it would have worked having him play bottom pairing minutes. But that's just my sunny optimism....


MartysBetter88
New Jersey Devils
Location: 94Nevermore, NJ
Joined: 07.01.2010

May 24 @ 3:29 PM ET
sign Larsson as a UFA.. then trade him back to Edmonton for McDavid. That should help us. Maybe we can throw in Zacha if they need a forward to fill that center spot.
redmonsters
New Jersey Devils
Location: NY
Joined: 06.23.2015

May 24 @ 4:00 PM ET
sign Larsson as a UFA.. then trade him back to Edmonton for McDavid. That should help us. Maybe we can throw in Zacha if they need a forward to fill that center spot.
- MartysBetter88

This is sound thinking, but would any Edmonton GM ever do this??????
MartysBetter88
New Jersey Devils
Location: 94Nevermore, NJ
Joined: 07.01.2010

May 24 @ 10:56 PM ET
This is sound thinking, but would any Edmonton GM ever do this??????
- redmonsters


it will forever be beyond unbelievable that we traded Larsson for Taylor Hall straight up, and Hall wasn't even a UFA or anything (correct?). Just silly.
Pomegrant
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 01.18.2010

May 24 @ 11:23 PM ET
it will forever be beyond unbelievable that we traded Larsson for Taylor Hall straight up, and Hall wasn't even a UFA or anything (correct?). Just silly.
- MartysBetter88

He was signed for 7 years at 6 mil per by the Oilers and they traded him three years into that deal. Still absolutely mind boggling to this day.
bikeguy99
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 09.05.2017

May 25 @ 11:00 AM ET
sign Larsson as a UFA.. then trade him back to Edmonton for McDavid. That should help us. Maybe we can throw in Zacha if they need a forward to fill that center spot.
- MartysBetter88


Haha. Larsson had his best season tho..... Dev's could use a shutdown RD. When does the lottery draft happen?

And 1 week from tomorrow we learn our official lottery placement. Here's to hoping! While team Canada may be relegated (Lost 2-0 to Latvia, 5-1 to USA, and 3-1 to Germany!!!!), Owen Powers has easily been their most noticeable D. Good to see him showing better than other NHL vets right now.
bikeguy99
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 09.05.2017

May 25 @ 11:08 AM ET
I'm not saying a 3rd round draft pick is worthless and you should just give them away. I'm saying that the chance they become a regular NHLer is pretty low compared to first and second round picks. Using a 3rd for a guaranteed roster player is not a bad trade off, but nobody is claiming that you can't get talented players in the 3rd round of the draft.

+/- is still a terrible stat, and so are counting totals especially for a defensive defenseman. He's not going to get a lot of pluses because he isn't going to aid in production of goals. Also, everybody still gets minuses because nobody has a spotless record in goals against. So what happens is that his numbers are just skewed minus. That's why people are trending to use advanced stats so these types of players who look bad with traditional counting stats can be fairly evaluated.

I think it's reasonable to doubt him as a player being thrust into an expanded Top-4 role because he's been a bottom pairing defenseman during his entire NHL career. Yes, his body of work is small and he needs to prove himself to be a good player. I just like his potential upside and think he could be a nice fit for this roster. Even if he doesn't pan out it only cost a 3rd instead of some of the other trades we've made that sold off a lot of second round picks which have much greater impact.

- Pomegrant


I agree +/- is a terrible stat at face value. I try and simply state that compared to the other Caps D who replaced him, he faired the worst while they occupied nearly identical defensive zone starts, and got stuck on expired on pk's a similar rates. I know I have been torched for the +/- stat several times, but when some players are consistently standing out among their peers, it starts to gain some traction. I even got criticized for bringing this stat up regarding Laine, who was a -27, almost exclusively starting in the O-zone, and was 1 of just 2 Jets that season in the minus column. When they become a highly repeated trend, I grow concerned. Every D has a bad night where the bounces don't go their way, or the tendy is off, and they pick up a -3. Happens to all the greats. But season in, season out, if you are jumping off the stat sheet in that department, I start to grow weary. I've said it with Zacha, and still think he gave up defensively this season. How does our top PK centre have as many blocked shots this season as Nurse had lastnight? Ill quit beating the dead horse and focus on the draft/expansion draft/UFA, as all those have plenty of promise for this club going forward. Can't wait for June 2nd to give us some draft clarity, then the real debate of: "who do we take"?
shvingter88
New Jersey Devils
Location: Puljujarvi makes draisitil and mcdavid better, CT
Joined: 10.12.2009

May 25 @ 10:46 PM ET
sign Larsson as a UFA.. then trade him back to Edmonton for McDavid. That should help us. Maybe we can throw in Zacha if they need a forward to fill that center spot.
- MartysBetter88

No way Edmonton doesn’t re-sign him
bikeguy99
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 09.05.2017

May 26 @ 9:58 AM ET
No way Edmonton doesn’t re-sign him
- shvingter88


They are going to have quite a cap crunch now. Lots of guys on expiring contracts, and if Klefbom comes off the LTIR, they probably can't afford Larsson. 22M seems like plenty of space, but Larsson, Nuge, Barrie, Yamamoto, Smith, Chiasson, and 5 other UFA's plus 4 RFA's..... Their GM has a lot of decisions to make, and Bear and Bouchard are challenging for bigger roles on the blue line. It will be interesting to see what happens.
Banana_Hammock
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 10.01.2020

May 26 @ 10:06 AM ET
While team Canada may be relegated (Lost 2-0 to Latvia, 5-1 to USA, and 3-1 to Germany!!!!), Owen Powers has easily been their most noticeable D. Good to see him showing better than other NHL vets right now.
- bikeguy99


No relegation this year. None of the lower divisions played due to Covid, therefore no one will be promoted like normal years. Same 16 teams at next years tournament.
Bragg18
New Jersey Devils
Location: Pasco, WA
Joined: 07.03.2012

May 26 @ 11:31 AM ET
Hischier hurt again??!
Leniwm1
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Joined: 02.24.2015

May 26 @ 12:46 PM ET
Hischier hurt again??!
- Bragg18


I didnt see/hear anything.. What happened?
bikeguy99
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 09.05.2017

May 26 @ 1:17 PM ET
No relegation this year. None of the lower divisions played due to Covid, therefore no one will be promoted like normal years. Same 16 teams at next years tournament.
- Banana_Hammock



Thats too bad for the lower teams looking to climb back into the mix. I was semi-joking tho, as I don't think Canada would lose a relegation game to italy or norway, but they way they have played....who knows?

Sharangovich has put Belarus on his back. Wearing the "C" and beating Sweden has to be a serious confidence boost. He really looks great out there, and is winning draws regularly!
Leniwm1
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Joined: 02.24.2015

May 26 @ 1:21 PM ET
Thats too bad for the lower teams looking to climb back into the mix. I was semi-joking tho, as I don't think Canada would lose a relegation game to italy or norway, but they way they have played....who knows?

Sharangovich has put Belarus on his back. Wearing the "C" and beating Sweden has to be a serious confidence boost. He really looks great out there, and is winning draws regularly!

- bikeguy99


Confidence + growth + full season = I predict 40 goals next year.
vlongo4419
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 07.31.2013

May 26 @ 1:55 PM ET
Hischier hurt again??!
- Bragg18


Nothing confirmed and literally no info out there about it. Some people are just assuming/speculating he got hurt because he didn't play the last few minutes of their game yesterday. We'll see if he plays tomorrow.
bikeguy99
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 09.05.2017

May 26 @ 2:41 PM ET
Confidence + growth + full season = I predict 40 goals next year.
- Leniwm1



I'd be thrilled if he hit 30. Lord knows we need some scoring, especially with Palms potentially gone.

I think the Dev's could be a top trading partner with Edmonton. They need Neal off the books, and good bottom 6 players. We have several players that would boost their bottom 6 while freeing up a couple roster spots for Mercer/Holtz/Clark/Foote/Boq, etc. They have Broberg/Bouchard as top D prospects, one of which would be a welcomed addition to the Devs group. I could see us being beneficial trade partners, and we would have the upper hand as taking on Neal for 2 seasons is feasible.
shvingter88
New Jersey Devils
Location: Puljujarvi makes draisitil and mcdavid better, CT
Joined: 10.12.2009

May 27 @ 10:37 AM ET
They are going to have quite a cap crunch now. Lots of guys on expiring contracts, and if Klefbom comes off the LTIR, they probably can't afford Larsson. 22M seems like plenty of space, but Larsson, Nuge, Barrie, Yamamoto, Smith, Chiasson, and 5 other UFA's plus 4 RFA's..... Their GM has a lot of decisions to make, and Bear and Bouchard are challenging for bigger roles on the blue line. It will be interesting to see what happens.
- bikeguy99

Seattle will be taking someone from their roster opening up space to sign him
bikeguy99
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 09.05.2017

May 27 @ 2:22 PM ET
Seattle will be taking someone from their roster opening up space to sign him
- shvingter88


They need Billy Guerin at the helm. Minnie looked like a team trapped in mediocrity with so many long term contracts and no money to spend. The moves didn't seem like alot at the time, but moving out Staal, Kunin, Donato, Dubnyk, Zucker, Hendricks, Granlund and bringing in Talbod, Mojo, Fiala, 1st rd, Cole, Bonino, Bjugstad really did change the dynamic of this club. They seem much more committed to playing a system, and obviously Kaprizov didn't hurt either. Sometimes you just need to shake things up, and Billy identified the issues up front, and in goal in a massive way. I still think Vegas wins, but regardless they are a brand new and improved club for the first time in what seems like 5+ years.

I question if some of our veterans can't be stuck in a similar rut. Sevo/Wood/P.K./Zacha may all posess some decent trade value, especially with some retention. We have plenty of young talent trying to crack the roster, and I don't see our dynamic changing a whole lot if our veteran core remains intact. I would not be opposed to a similar shakeup withing our roster, so long as our top prospects remain Devs.
shvingter88
New Jersey Devils
Location: Puljujarvi makes draisitil and mcdavid better, CT
Joined: 10.12.2009

May 27 @ 4:45 PM ET
They need Billy Guerin at the helm. Minnie looked like a team trapped in mediocrity with so many long term contracts and no money to spend. The moves didn't seem like alot at the time, but moving out Staal, Kunin, Donato, Dubnyk, Zucker, Hendricks, Granlund and bringing in Talbod, Mojo, Fiala, 1st rd, Cole, Bonino, Bjugstad really did change the dynamic of this club. They seem much more committed to playing a system, and obviously Kaprizov didn't hurt either. Sometimes you just need to shake things up, and Billy identified the issues up front, and in goal in a massive way. I still think Vegas wins, but regardless they are a brand new and improved club for the first time in what seems like 5+ years.

I question if some of our veterans can't be stuck in a similar rut. Sevo/Wood/P.K./Zacha may all posess some decent trade value, especially with some retention. We have plenty of young talent trying to crack the roster, and I don't see our dynamic changing a whole lot if our veteran core remains intact. I would not be opposed to a similar shakeup withing our roster, so long as our top prospects remain Devs.

- bikeguy99

I see no need to trade zacha but yeah the rest can go
bikeguy99
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 09.05.2017

May 28 @ 11:27 AM ET
I see no need to trade zacha but yeah the rest can go
- shvingter88


It's strictly based off his trade value. If he can be part of a package that brings in a legit top minutes player, or if he can be an asset we move for a 1st. If not, he should remain a Dev. His 35 points was his best offseason to date, but arguably his worste defensive season. He would not be a top 6 on most clubs, and if the price is right, I'd be fine with him moving on and giving another player that TOI. Fitz has the luxury of time on deciding how to handle Zacha, so I fully expect him to be a Dev at the start of the season.
Pomegrant
New Jersey Devils
Location: NJ
Joined: 01.18.2010

May 28 @ 9:48 PM ET
Parise scored a goal that reminded me of 10 years ago Parise and then it made me sad.
MartysBetter88
New Jersey Devils
Location: 94Nevermore, NJ
Joined: 07.01.2010

May 29 @ 7:53 PM ET
I miss you guys lol
Leniwm1
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Joined: 02.24.2015

May 29 @ 8:44 PM ET
Whats up with Parise and the Wild. I never thought I’d see him in the doghouse but it seems it’s been that way with him. Weird poop.
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