Didn't everyone think we were ready for playoff hockey when we were scoring goals like crazy against Buffalo, Jersey, and Philly?

Anyway, looks like Sullivan has them in playoff mode. Coach Sullivan: "It was a really even game, I think. They are a good team and we are a good team also. We have to learn from this... We're trying to take what the game gives us... We're trying to make adjustments along to the way to give our guys success, today was no different."
- Thunderbolt

Lol no. Some of us realized it was Buffalo, New Jersey and Philly and the Pens were on a PDO heater.

Lol no. Some of us realized it was Buffalo, New Jersey and Philly and the Pens were on a PDO heater.
- j.boyd919

I could be mistaken but aren't the Islanders near the tops of PDO every season lately? Crazy save and shooting%?

Pens were the better team over all yesterday but the Islanders goalie was better than Jarry. Certainly not far fetched to me for this to happen 3 more times haha


EDIT: at all strengths this season Pens were 2nd they were 7th. They were 15th last season and 2nd the season before, the season they swept the Pens...the Pens were 7th that year....my superstitious mind can't help but like this haha

I could be mistaken but aren't the Islanders near the tops of PDO every season lately? Crazy save and shooting%?

Pens were the better team over all yesterday but the Islanders goalie was better than Jarry. Certainly not far fetched to me for this to happen 3 more times haha


EDIT: at all strengths this season Pens were 2nd they were 7th. They were 15th last season and 2nd the season before, the season they swept the Pens...the Pens were 7th that year....my superstitious mind can't help but like this haha
- MattStrat

Last month of the season the Pens had a PDO of 102.3 and the Isles were 100.7.

Generally being around 100 is where you want to be. Being substantially over or under 100 usually screams "not sustainable."

Top 10 PDO teams this season include: Pens, Islanders, Golden Knights (1st in PDO), Wild, Oilers, Lightening, Caps, Jets and Canes....9 playoff teams....Rangers were only one in top 10 not to make it in.

EDIT: 11th through 15th: Leafs, Avs, Panthers, Blues, Preds

Last month of the season the Pens had a PDO of 102.3 and the Isles were 100.7.

Generally being around 100 is where you want to be. Being substantially over or under 100 usually screams "not sustainable."
- j.boyd919

Oh I get the sustainable part but 16 of the top 18 in it for this season are in the playoffs and a month is small sample size.

Unless its the 3rd period of game 4, they're down a few goals and down 3 games to 0 in the series, I dont see them playing another period like yesterday's 3rd. They'll learn from it.

In the full month of March the Pens were 1st with PDO of 1.061 and the Islanders were 5th with 1.024. Big difference....

In the full month of April the Pens were 9th with a PDO of 1.019 and the Islanders were 10th with 1.014. Very small difference but fairly substantial improvement from both teams, especially the Pens.

Any reason(s) not to use all strengths PDO? I mean, shots and saves happen on PPs and PKs as well....

Isn't it interesting how quiet Ryan's blog is right now.

Oh I get the sustainable part but 16 of the top 18 in it for this season are in the playoffs and a month is small sample size.
- MattStrat

I think we need to change how we look at PDO. Every year teams that make the playoffs are above 100 and teams that don't are below 100. However if you look at those teams the majority of the teams that are above are better teams and the ones below stink.

Did any of the teams that didn't make it get torpedoed by bad goaltending and/or bad shooting percentage? Or did they not make it because they are a bad team, with players that don't have good shooting talent and/or goaltending that isn't good.

Any reason(s) not to use all strengths PDO? I mean, shots and saves happen on PPs and PKs as well....
- MattStrat

https://hockey-graphs.com...-canucks-bruins-senators/

Didn't get a chance to read the whole article but there's this snippet:

"n both cases, there’s nearly no relationship, although SV% might have a slight blip there. What does this tell us, and why does it make PDO “marvelous?” Because PP time does in fact increase team shooting percentage and PK time does in fact decrease team save percentage (there was no exception to those rules these last 10 years), but the shallow distribution and luck in those percentages nearly eliminates ST% as an effect on all-situations PDO."

Isn't it interesting how quiet Ryan's blog is right now.
- mrniftee

It’s quiet?

Isn't it interesting how quiet Ryan's blog is right now.
- mrniftee

It's basically just me talking to myself hahaha

I think we need to change how we look at PDO. Every year teams that make the playoffs are above 100 and teams that don't are below 100. However if you look at those teams the majority of the teams that are above are better teams and the ones below stink.

Did any of the teams that didn't make it get torpedoed by bad goaltending and/or bad shooting percentage? Or did they not make it because they are a bad team, with players that don't have good shooting talent and/or goaltending that isn't good.
- abcpens10

Look at the capitals they generally have a pdo over 100 as their goaltending is average to above league average and their players have elite shooting talent that pushes them above the league average shooting percentage. The last 5 years their pdo has been 102, 101, 102, 102, 103. I would say looking at them if their mean is 102 and anything below or above would come back to 102, not 100

Unless its the 3rd period of game 4, they're down a few goals and down 3 games to 0 in the series, I dont see them playing another period like yesterday's 3rd. They'll learn from it.
- MattStrat

They played a good game. They played the type of game that wins you games. Some players made some gross mistakes, but that's going to happen. The two issues were:

1) Jarry - Just unacceptable
2) PP - It wasn't bad except for the last one that was a poop show, but they have to get some PP goals.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/02/04/nhl-outperforming-pdo-leafs-canucks-bruins-senators/

Didn't get a chance to read the whole article but there's this snippet:

"n both cases, there’s nearly no relationship, although SV% might have a slight blip there. What does this tell us, and why does it make PDO “marvelous?” Because PP time does in fact increase team shooting percentage and PK time does in fact decrease team save percentage (there was no exception to those rules these last 10 years), but the shallow distribution and luck in those percentages nearly eliminates ST% as an effect on all-situations PDO."
- j.boyd919

I made the "me talking to myself" comment before seeing this, sorry haha.

So...if "the shallow distribution and luck in those percentages nearly eliminates ST% as an effect on all-situations PDO" ...then we should just used all strengths...

I think we need to change how we look at PDO. Every year teams that make the playoffs are above 100 and teams that don't are below 100. However if you look at those teams the majority of the teams that are above are better teams and the ones below stink.

Did any of the teams that didn't make it get torpedoed by bad goaltending and/or bad shooting percentage? Or did they not make it because they are a bad team, with players that don't have good shooting talent and/or goaltending that isn't good.
- abcpens10

Yeah, to me those stats, especially SV%, just have so many variables to it to just sum up PDO as a kind of a be all end all thing. Best teams in the league all have the highest haha

They played a good game. They played the type of game that wins you games. Some players made some gross mistakes, but that's going to happen. The two issues were:

1) Jarry - Just unacceptable
2) PP - It wasn't bad except for the last one that was a poop show, but they have to get some PP goals.
- Rinosaur

I thought they played a great game. I thought they kept the isles to mostly outside shots where Jarry could see the puck the entire time. You are spot on with Jarry, he lost us that one. The hope is that he steals us one along the way to make up for it.

That first power play was a clinic. I still can't believe they didn't score.

They played a good game. They played the type of game that wins you games. Some players made some gross mistakes, but that's going to happen. The two issues were:

1) Jarry - Just unacceptable
2) PP - It wasn't bad except for the last one that was a poop show, but they have to get some PP goals.
- Rinosaur

Yup.

I thought they played a great game. I thought they kept the isles to mostly outside shots where Jarry could see the puck the entire time. You are spot on with Jarry, he lost us that one. The hope is that he steals us one along the way to make up for it.

That first power play was a clinic. I still can't believe they didn't score.
- burgh4life87

The Isles PK is no joke. Even with allowing that zone time, they severely cut off shooting lanes. One can argue you just take the shot, and sometimes that is what you do, but IMO the way the Isles were set up they were poised to block a shot go the other way shorthanded.

The Pens out-chanced the Isles 33-20 while limiting them to just 6 high danger chances to the Pens' 11.

The Pens played well enough to give Jarry breathing room most of the game, like you said, a lot of the Isles chances were from the outside, but he just blew it. Sorokin was outstanding. The Pens really didn't make life easy for him and he just came up big and Jarry didn't.

People take a few gaffs by guys like Dumo, Letang and Matheson and create this narrative that the defense stunk. They didn't. They were good by and large. The Isles are good team and will push back. They will win battles against our defense. It will happen, but that doesn't mean the defense was bad.

Did anyone else notice how the wingers and the D seemed to have questions as to who should go after the puck in our zone? A couple times I noticed the winger staying really high by the point man, even though there was a lose puck to be won on the mid boards. Rusty did it to Dumo at least twice.

Forwards in general seemed to be really high in the zone. Some kind of plan by Sully? Doesn't make a lot of sense unless the Isles are sending 3 in deep. If it is a plan it was not well executed.

Our D definitely need more support so we don't have those reversals that cause turnovers.

I'm fully confident the Pens take Game 2.

I'm fully confident the Pens take Game 2.
- Rinosaur

The Isles PK is no joke. Even with allowing that zone time, they severely cut off shooting lanes. One can argue you just take the shot, and sometimes that is what you do, but IMO the way the Isles were set up they were poised to block a shot go the other way shorthanded.

The Pens out-chanced the Isles 33-20 while limiting them to just 6 high danger chances to the Pens' 11.

The Pens played well enough to give Jarry breathing room most of the game, like you said, a lot of the Isles chances were from the outside, but he just blew it. Sorokin was outstanding. The Pens really didn't make life easy for him and he just came up big and Jarry didn't.

People take a few gaffs by guys like Dumo, Letang and Matheson and create this narrative that the defense stunk. They didn't. They were good by and large. The Isles are good team and will push back. They will win battles against our defense. It will happen, but that doesn't mean the defense was bad.
- Rinosaur

All of this is true. They played well enough to win that game. Jarry let them down, starting to be a familiar playoff theme though.

I wouldn't say the D was all out bad, just indecisive.

All of this is true. They played well enough to win that game. Jarry let them down, starting to be a familiar playoff theme though.

I wouldn't say the D was all out bad, just indecisive.
- Thorny87

I don't even think they were indecisive. An indecisive defense doesn't lead to the type or the number to chances the Pens had, nor do they limit the other team. There were definitely some miscues, but that happens.

There was about fifteen minutes in the third, when the Isles really took over, that the whole team was scrambling and poopting all over the ice and I think people are just honing in on that. It's called push-back and it will happen. Those are moments you need your goalie to come up big.