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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Musings: Expansion Draft, Phantoms Update
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Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 2:00 PM ET
I rely on my eye test. Last year, i thought we were awesome before the break. Then not so much in the playoffs even though we were winning, we weren't playing well. But i would've been mad at chuck if he made big moves because i thought the team was in a great place. So, i don't blame chuck. Thought sandhiem and meyers would've improved enough to make up for the lost of niskanen.......was I ever wrong. Thought provy might've taken a step forward, not backwards. ....Now, I have no idea what to think of the youngster, maybe they wont improve much more at all, its not like they are 19yrs old, and chuck needs to do something. At least play tougher.
- bradster



Beer league teams are tougher to olay against than what this team showed
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 2:04 PM ET
Why does that make you mad....its true. Use your eyes first
- bradster


Because it is not true, and because I hear it so much here.

If the data set is representative enough, everything is pinned down (in terms of degrees of likelihood): your love life, your fart frequency, your habits, your impulses, and those of your family, your neighborhood, your county, country and civilization.
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

May 13 @ 2:07 PM ET
Because it is not true, and because I hear it so much here.

If the data set is representative enough, everything is pinned down (in terms of degrees of likelihood): your love life, your fart frequency, your habits, your impulses, and those of your family, your neighborhood, your county, country and civilization.

- PT21


So if they weren't disappointments, why were we eliminated from the playoffs so early, and why were buffalo and the devils beating us? I'm curious to hear this.
goenzoy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 04.11.2014

May 13 @ 2:13 PM ET
TK and Provy let me down, they played like crap. I don't buy the provy needs a good partner narrative. You could say everyone would play better with a better partner. His partner doesn't cause him to make horrible passes or whiff on a pass.
- bradster


True but what you expect ?
Provy did play his ELC with 82 82 82 games in one year as number 4 on TOI
So 26 teams did not have a player who did so many minutes

Cots and Provy simple play too much
Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 2:15 PM ET
True but what you expect ?
Provy did play his ELC with 82 82 82 games in one year as number 4 on TOI
So 26 teams did not have a player who did so many minutes

Cots and Provy simple play too much

- goenzoy


Provy yes. He isn’t a true number one d man
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 2:15 PM ET
So if they weren't disappointments, why were we eliminated from the playoffs so early, and why were buffalo and the devils beating us? I'm curious to hear this.
- bradster


What does the data tell you?Look at all the things that did change for the worse. The youth performance, the goaltending, the lower line contributions, the 2C spot.... well, thats why.

Why flog a very serviceable mount just because you unrealistically wanted it to win the Kentucky Derby and failed?

goenzoy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 04.11.2014

May 13 @ 2:17 PM ET
Provy yes. He isn’t a true number one d man
- Fopa21


Well sure but your top D-Man should be not on a ERC
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

May 13 @ 2:17 PM ET
What does the data tell you?Look at all the things that did change for the worse. The youth performance, the goaltending, the lower line contributions, the 2C spot.... well, thats why.

Why flog a very serviceable mount just because you unrealistically wanted it to win the Kentucky Derby and failed?

- PT21


You forget to mention the vets not being as good. Totally forgot to forecheck compared to last year.
Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 2:18 PM ET
What does the data tell you?Look at all the things that did change for the worse. The youth performance, the goaltending, the lower line contributions, the 2C spot.... well, thats why.

Why flog a very serviceable mount just because you unrealistically wanted it to win the Kentucky Derby and failed?

- PT21


It’s unbelievable. Literally everything but veterans/first line lol
Pelle31Forever
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.20.2014

May 13 @ 2:29 PM ET
I’d rather focus our assets on landing Jones than Eichel but I’d still gladly take Eichel on this team. He’s an upgrade over just about everyone.
- hereticpride


He IS an upgrade over everyone in the roster. No doubt in my mind he'd be the best player.

However to go along with what you're saying, making the necessary steps to get him wouldn't put the Flyers in a better spot.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 2:31 PM ET
You forget to mention the vets not being as good. Totally forgot to forecheck compared to last year.
- bradster


If they didn't forecheck as much as last year, then it was utterly irrelevant or even worse, harmful, because it never affected their on ice stats except positively.

Unless you are using the 'wearing down' argument, where their forechecking would have a trickle-down effect that would better the stats of others when they are on the bench. I think we all agree that is a pretty far fetched argument.

You have to understand a critical issue here: if your eye test is unearthing anything relevant, it has to, has to, show up in the stats somewhere.

bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

May 13 @ 2:36 PM ET
If they didn't forecheck as much as last year, then it was utterly irrelevant or even worse, harmful, because it never affected their on ice stats except positively.

Unless you are using the 'wearing down' argument, where their forechecking would have a trickle-down effect that would better the stats of others when they are on the bench. I think we all agree that is a pretty far fetched argument.

You have to understand a critical issue here: if your eye test is unearthing anything relevant, it has to, has to, show up in the stats somewhere.

- PT21


My eye test did show up in the stats. Its called wins/losses, and its a pretty significant stat. The reason we aren't in the playoffs. You don't need to try and change my mind. I thought everyone except farabee was a disappointment because i had higher expectations, was thinking we'd be in the playoffs. And you had lower expectation and weren't disappointed by the vets. That's pretty much what it comes down to.
Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 2:37 PM ET
If they didn't forecheck as much as last year, then it was utterly irrelevant or even worse, harmful, because it never affected their on ice stats except positively.

Unless you are using the 'wearing down' argument, where their forechecking would have a trickle-down effect that would better the stats of others when they are on the bench. I think we all agree that is a pretty far fetched argument.

You have to understand a critical issue here: if your eye test is unearthing anything relevant, it has to, has to, show up in the stats somewhere.

- PT21


Wake up. How about this

Giroux plus 7 to minus 4
Jake plus 14 to minus 12
Coots plus 21 to minus 4

Can your eyes see that?
mr4tno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.29.2017

May 13 @ 2:37 PM ET
Obviously a big coincidence, but the Flyers sure do have young players get hurt often. I mean all players miss some time with an injury, but long stretches, surgery and even seasons happen more than I see from others.

Top of my head of players missing significant time to begin career or early development:

Patrick
Laberge
Morin
Frost
Rubtsov
Allison
Ghost
Foerster (This is 2 dangerous looking injuries now?)

I'm sure there are others recently, but doesn't help it happens to a lot of higher end picks.

- Glak18

Not only that but they are all 1st or 2nd round picks (ecept Ghost)
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 2:42 PM ET
My eye test did show up in the stats. Its called wins/losses, and its a pretty significant stat. The reason we aren't in the playoffs. You don't need to try and change my mind. I thought everyone except farabee was a disappointment because i had higher expectations, was thinking we'd be in the playoffs. And you had lower expectation and weren't disappointed by the vets. That's pretty much what it comes down to.
- bradster


No one is questioning their win/loss record. But that is a team stat. What we are debating is which individuals deserve the blame, and to what degree.

And I am telling you there is zero to negative evidence for the fact that Couturier,JVR, Giroux, and Voracek, individually or collectively, contributed to the worse record: they played the same as last year, indeed they largely played better.

If they disappointed you, you had expectations that were inconsistent with what their record/data would suggest they are.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

May 13 @ 2:44 PM ET
So, how come so many matched or significantly bettered their stats from last year?
- PT21

That means nothing, their stats last year were below par too! This year the Flyers did not have 1 player in the top 50 in scoring. Last year the Flyers did not have 1 player in the top 30 in scoring, and a young player, TK, lead them in scoring! The Flyers have $38M tied up in G, Jake, Hayes, JVR and Provorov and what do they have to show for it?

The bottom line is your best players have to play their best in critical moments of the game. How many times did this happen this season? How many times did the Flyers get a late PP and an opportunity to close out the game and fail? How many times did the Flyers have a chance to score an empty net goal to ice a game and fail? How many times did we see opponents score short handed goals on the Flyers (they lead the league in SHG against BTW)? Or my all time favorite, giving up a 2-1 break during a 2 man advantage! The team didn't score but how many times did they give their opponents momentum? How many times did the Flyers vets come down the ice on a 3 on 1 and not even get a shot on goal? The Flyers so-called best players are not top players in the league, and its killing them!
Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 2:45 PM ET
No one is questioning their win/loss record. But that is a team stat. What we are debating is which individuals deserve the blame, and to what degree.

And I am telling you there is zero to negative evidence for the fact that Couturier,JVR, Giroux, and Voracek, individually or collectively, contributed to the worse record: they played the same as last year, indeed they largely played better.

If they disappointed you, you had expectations that were inconsistent with what their record/data would suggest they are.

- PT21


Plus minus doesn’t matter huh hahha
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 2:45 PM ET
Wake up. How about this

Giroux plus 7 to minus 4
Jake plus 14 to minus 12
Coots plus 21 to minus 4

Can your eyes see that?

- Fopa21


That's a team stat. If you are going to use +/-, try this instead: See where they show up in the percentile rankings of the team in terms of +/- (to see their relative rankings). I suspect you will find little significant change, and if there is, it would be an improvement.
mr4tno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.29.2017

May 13 @ 2:45 PM ET
I think giroux would which is why the team is a .500 club with him but you’re spot on. So many people only look at his point production the example in effort he shows on the ice is disgusting. Furthermore, did you know that in over HALF of the games this season (29) Giroux did not record a single point. Half the season! C- at best
- Fopa21

People look at point production because when you are paying someone $8.25MM and he is not a 60 min per night player, points (actually primary points) must be a significant part of the equation. Same thign with Voracek - 48+MM for a winger - he needs to score goals, not assists.......
Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 2:47 PM ET
No one is questioning their win/loss record. But that is a team stat. What we are debating is which individuals deserve the blame, and to what degree.

And I am telling you there is zero to negative evidence for the fact that Couturier,JVR, Giroux, and Voracek, individually or collectively, contributed to the worse record: they played the same as last year, indeed they largely played better.

If they disappointed you, you had expectations that were inconsistent with what their record/data would suggest they are.

- PT21


Giroux plus 7 to minus 4
Jake plus 14 to minus 12
Coots plus 21 to minus 4

Can your eyes see that? Or that was probably because sanheim was on the ice with them so lets blame him or myers hahah talk about troll
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 2:48 PM ET
That means nothing, their stats last year were below par too! This year the Flyers did not have 1 player in the top 50 in scoring. Last year the Flyers did not have 1 player in the top 30 in scoring, and a young players, TK, lead them in scoring! The Flyers have $38M tied up in G, Jake, Hayes, JVR and Provorov and what do they have to show for it?

The bottom line is your best players have to play their best in critical moments of the game. How many times did this happen this season? How many times did the Flyers get a late PP and an opportunity to close out the game and fail? How many times did the Flyers have a chance to score an empty net goal to ice a game and fail? How many times did we see opponents score short handed goals on the Flyers (they lead the league in SHG against BTW)? Or my all time favorite, giving up a 2-1 break during a 2 man advantage! The team didn't score but how many times did they give their opponents momentum? How many times did the Flyers vets come down the ice on a 3 on 1 and not even get a shot on goal? The Flyers so-called best players are not top players in the league, and its killing them!

- jd250


Every single thing you said here means you are grading them not on their own potential but based on what you want them to be.

Well, they are not who you want them to be. Couturier and JVR never were if they disappointed you this season. Roo and Jake no longer are who they were.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 2:49 PM ET
Giroux plus 7 to minus 4
Jake plus 14 to minus 12
Coots plus 21 to minus 4

Can your eyes see that? Or that was probably because sanheim was on the ice with them so lets blame him or myers hahah talk about troll

- Fopa21


*flagged for moronic trolling
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

May 13 @ 2:50 PM ET
No one is questioning their win/loss record. But that is a team stat. What we are debating is which individuals deserve the blame, and to what degree.

And I am telling you there is zero to negative evidence for the fact that Couturier,JVR, Giroux, and Voracek, individually or collectively, contributed to the worse record: they played the same as last year, indeed they largely played better.

If they disappointed you, you had expectations that were inconsistent with what their record/data would suggest they are.

- PT21


Negative evidence HAHAHAH, that's good.

Even AV said Couts didn't play as well as last year. Obviously he thought it was a little disappointing also. But anyway, we can agree to disagree. Everyone but Farabee was a disappointment. The vets Hayes and Laughton leading the way, and the lack of effort from Jake.
Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 2:51 PM ET
*flagged for moronic trolling
- PT21


I don’t blame you for not understanding what you saw during games
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 2:52 PM ET
Negative evidence HAHAHAH, that's good.

Even AV said Couts didn't play as well as last year. Obviously he thought it was a little disappointing also. But anyway, we can agree to disagree. Everyone but Farabee was a disappointment. The vets Hayes and Laughton leading the way, and the lack of effort from Jake.

- bradster


By negative evidence, I meant evidence to the contrary.
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