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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Musings: Expansion Draft, Phantoms Update
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Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 5:07 PM ET
this proves that you can copy a stat line from the internet.

i can make up anything i want too, dude. you serious?

- Ftown19125


Haha well I’m not going to put my real name out there

I’ll send my bio to bill & he can varify for you
Ftown19125
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 09.17.2013

May 13 @ 5:12 PM ET
Haha well I’m not going to put my real name out there
- Fopa21


cool stealth brag then. but even if you really did play, you still don't have a (frank)ing clue.
Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 5:13 PM ET
cool stealth brag then. but even if you really did play, you still don't have a (frank)ing clue.
- Ftown19125


👍
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

May 13 @ 5:17 PM ET

Looks like Foerster is going to be okay for the start of next season. Sam Carchidi is reporting a separated collarbone. This is great news. I saw the replay, and it looked scary.

PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 5:18 PM ET
No, it should say to you that I believed he was capable of performing at a much higher level then he actually did on average even under the circumstances.
- NC Flyers Fan


No. Observe where you rank Hayes in relation to Patrick. Patrick finished with aberrantly abysmal stats. Hayes did much better of course. Yet you rank Patrick higher. It can't be because of present stats. What could that be for then? It must be because you believe Hayes underachieved more than Patrick. The degree of underachievement of Hayes is about 10-15%, so that means you cannot expect Patrick to achieve more than a 15% improvement. Which means you expect him to be about a 18 p a season player, at his peak.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

May 13 @ 5:22 PM ET
No. Observe where you rank Hayes in relation to Patrick. Patrick finished with aberrantly abysmal stats. Hayes did much better of course. Yet you rank Patrick higher. It can't be because of present stats. What could that be for then? It must be because you believe Hayes underachieved more than Patrick. The degree of underachievement of Hayes is about 10-15%, so that means you cannot expect Patrick to achieve more than a 15% improvement. Which means you expect him to be about a 18 p a season player, at his peak.
- PT21


Exactly (bold), I didn’t expect Patrick to come back full steam ahead after missing nearly 2 years. I thought I was fair in my expectation of him which was low, but he still underachieved.

Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 13 @ 5:28 PM ET
Not necessarily. The player got a bridge contract for a reason. It was believed that was his value. If he over-performed that bridge contract, then he should receive credit for this purpose.
- PT21


The team's cap structure at the time probably had more to do with it.
Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 5:28 PM ET
Exactly (bold), I didn’t expect Patrick to come back full steam ahead after missing nearly 2 years. I thought I was fair in my expectation of him which was low, but he still underachieved.
- NC Flyers Fan


He’s just not nhl caliber. The head issues didn’t help but you could see before missing last season that he would never be anything close to impact at the nhl level
Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 5:31 PM ET
Exactly (bold), I didn’t expect Patrick to come back full steam ahead after missing nearly 2 years. I thought I was fair in my expectation of him which was low, but he still underachieved.
- NC Flyers Fan


One could argue he actually started full steam ahead recording 5 of his 9 points in the first 7 games of the season
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

May 13 @ 5:34 PM ET
He’s just not nhl caliber. The head issues didn’t help but you could see before missing last season that he would never be anything close to impact at the nhl level
- Fopa21


We’ll see. It is a very important offseason for him, and he knows it. I had thought a 18-25 point 3rd/4th line contribution would be a good starting point. He literally has no where to go but up right now.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 5:42 PM ET
Exactly (bold), I didn’t expect Patrick to come back full steam ahead after missing nearly 2 years. I thought I was fair in my expectation of him which was low, but he still underachieved.
- NC Flyers Fan


Everything you wrote above makes your grade of NP further inconsistent.

Note that your grading scheme (based on the accompanying rubric) is based on degrees of fulfilling expectations.

Hayes was at 0.59 ppg last year. That's his best season. He did 0.56 this season. That's a very small difference. But lets throw in some intangibles or absence of clutch goals this year and say he underachieved by 15%. You give such under-performance (of 15%) a grade of D-.

In the above, you say your expectations of NP were low this season. That means you are comparing him not to career best but for his current situation. This means, from above, that his under-performance was less than 15%.

Yet you give him a grade of D, which you claim means falls "far below expectations". If a guy achieves 85% or more of expectations, how does he fall far below?

PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 5:44 PM ET
The team's cap structure at the time probably had more to do with it.
- Tomahawk


Eh, I disagree. If a team gives a bridge that is independent of player worth, then he would be OS-ed or he will sit out or something. There could be a small correlation but not much to team cap situation. 90% will be based on market worth.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 13 @ 5:47 PM ET
One could argue he actually started full steam ahead recording 5 of his 9 points in the first 7 games of the season
- Fopa21


Team had incredible shooting luck early on. Half the forwards were near point per game in the first few games. Patrick's production was a reflection of that.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 13 @ 5:54 PM ET
Eh, I disagree. If a team gives a bridge that is independent of player worth, then he would be OS-ed or he will sit out or something. There could be a small correlation but not much to team cap situation. 90% will be based on market worth.
- PT21


In Claude's case, it was a big honking correlation.

Claude signed his extension in the summer of Bryz. Richie, Briere, Kimmo, Prongs and others were already making $$$. Carter had to be re-upped too. They were smashed up against the cap, with the owner demanding they fix the goaltending. To make room for Bryz, Homer had to jettison Carter and Richards. There just wasn't any space to give Claude the $5M+ that he was worth at the time. Almost everybody at the time called it a steal.

Another team could have easily come in and OS'd him, but it's the NHL and nobody wants to ruffle feathers. And NHL players rarely hold out, especially youngins.

Pasta had about the same career trajectory as Claude leading up to his second contract. Bruins had cap space so they gave him the $6M per long term deal, knowing that he'd probably be jumping to $8-10M if they bridged him.
Fopa21
Joined: 05.12.2021

May 13 @ 5:54 PM ET
Team had incredible shooting luck early on. Half the forwards were near point per game in the first few games. Patrick's production was a reflection of that.
- Tomahawk


Which further emphasizes his lack of being anything close to an above average nhl player. Sure there would be a slight regression or even a medium sized regression once the luck runs out but to go what 45+ games & only collect 4 points is a major cliff dive. Big sam had 3 less goals than him & saw zero pp time. You would think hot start luck or not would of given the kid confidence & he would of had a decent season 20-30 points & not been so horrific defensively but it goes to show that start was pure luck & the 4 points in 45 games more closely resembles his future
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 13 @ 6:05 PM ET
Eh, I disagree. If a team gives a bridge that is independent of player worth, then he would be OS-ed or he will sit out or something. There could be a small correlation but not much to team cap situation. 90% will be based on market worth.
- PT21


Also, Crosby's contracts... they just arbitrarily set his AAV at $8.7M per because #87 lol. Not exactly a reflection of real market value there.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

May 13 @ 6:15 PM ET
Everything you wrote above makes your grade of NP further inconsistent.

Note that your grading scheme (based on the accompanying rubric) is based on degrees of fulfilling expectations.

Hayes was at 0.59 ppg last year. That's his best season. He did 0.56 this season. That's a very small difference. But lets throw in some intangibles or absence of clutch goals this year and say he underachieved by 15%. You give such under-performance (of 15%) a grade of D-.

In the above, you say your expectations of NP were low this season. That means you are comparing him not to career best but for his current situation. This means, from above, that his under-performance was less than 15%.

Yet you give him a grade of D, which you claim means falls "far below expectations". If a guy achieves 85% or more of expectations, how does he fall far below?

- PT21


I think that you are missing the defense element of his play in your analysis. Or is there a question on where Hayes is ranked?

NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

May 13 @ 6:36 PM ET
In Claude's case, it was a big honking correlation.

Claude signed his extension in the summer of Bryz. Richie, Briere, Kimmo, Prongs and others were already making $$$. Carter had to be re-upped too. They were smashed up against the cap, with the owner demanding they fix the goaltending. To make room for Bryz, Homer had to jettison Carter and Richards. There just wasn't any space to give Claude the $5M+ that he was worth at the time. Almost everybody at the time called it a steal.

Another team could have easily come in and OS'd him, but it's the NHL and nobody wants to ruffle feathers. And NHL players rarely hold out, especially youngins.

Pasta had about the same career trajectory as Claude leading up to his second contract. Bruins had cap space so they gave him the $6M per long term deal, knowing that he'd probably be jumping to $8-10M if they bridged him.

- Tomahawk


You are right that there is context to every individual deal, but I thought the point was that Giroux’s value on the dollar has been excellent. You said you agreed, yes?


bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

May 13 @ 6:46 PM ET
You are right that there is context to every individual deal, but I thought the point was that Giroux’s value on the dollar has been excellent. You said you agreed, yes?
- NC Flyers Fan


i dont think g has been overpaid until now. He earned his salary
CRUSH IT LIKE ME
Location: Give me 20 of Kunitz vs 20 girouxs
Joined: 04.25.2021

May 13 @ 7:05 PM ET
cool stealth brag then. but even if you really did play, you still don't have a (frank)ing clue.
- Ftown19125

Joe Grief was his coach and GM
konalover711
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PHX, AZ
Joined: 10.20.2015

May 13 @ 7:34 PM ET
It's about time someone said it. And what about Tyson Foerster? He couldn't even make it through an AHL season without getting injured. We expect him to get through a season in the NHL?????
- Ftown19125


No way to tell on Tyson kid too early....
But if it goes like normal for us we should be able to get a bag of pucks for him in 2-3 years...Yay
Angus4444
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2018

May 13 @ 7:37 PM ET
No insider but I did get paid to the play the game so I think I have a bit of an insight & see things in a different way. I’m not proclaiming to be the greatest hockey player I was never close to playing in the NHL & I made peanuts but I was pretty successful relatively speaking & was able to do it for 7 years at a level few people make it to
- Fopa21

Man up then . What’s your name and stats
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

May 13 @ 7:39 PM ET
I would if he made tackles, threw good blocks, got the occasional first down, drew coverage so other players could catch passes or score touchdowns.
- MBFlyerfan

Touché
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 7:42 PM ET
Also, Crosby's contracts... they just arbitrarily set his AAV at $8.7M per because #87 lol. Not exactly a reflection of real market value there.
- Tomahawk


Well, ok but that bit of cuteness was probably just the punctuation mark, no? He deserved something really high because he was a generational player coming after the salary cap and so there was probably not too many comparables. So, it would have been say 8-9, and they chose 8.7 to make it cute.

I understand what you said about Giroux earlier, and you know more about these things, but I would believe that if the RFA offer is significantly lower because of factors that have nothing to do with player performance, then the agent would protest, and it would be understood that you are heading into murky territory of having to extend 1 year QOs and arbitration and all that and the player is going to flee the nest first chance he gets. That's an unhealthy dynamic going forward.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 13 @ 7:45 PM ET
I think that you are missing the defense element of his play in your analysis. Or is there a question on where Hayes is ranked?
- NC Flyers Fan


I gave a 15% cushion for things unrelated to offense related numbers. Kevin Hayes' possession Stats, believe it or not, were significantly better than last year, and also in relation to the team (his relative Corsi went from -3.5 to +0.1).

More to the point, whatever his defensive lapses were, they pale in comparison to NP's, which again suggests you have either a very low opinion of Patrick's ceiling or have been unfair to Hayes.
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