I'm just going to respond to this part. In terms of counting totals yes, regression is expected. But Pavel put up a 42 xGF last year, he's at 48 this year. Trying to say that its the same player is disingenuous. Also, Bratt and Nico had great numbers together last year, propped up by an insane 60% xgf with Palms, who they spent almost half their time together with. Whose our current replacement for prime palmieri?
- rmdevil313

What? Zacha's xGF last year was 26.16 and this year its 21.88.

What? Zacha's xGF last year was 26.16 and this year its 21.88.
- vlongo4419

%, my bad

%, my bad
- rmdevil313

Right, and thats why i said he was even worse last year, and his stats 2 years ago are almost identical to this year across the board. It was in response to someone saying he's only been caved in this season and it wasn't like this in the past, but thats not true. Its now 3 straight years of being a bad 5v5 player, after his first 2 seasons being average-to-decent. He has pretty much steadily gotten worse as a 5v5 player every year of his career

Right, and thats why i said he was even worse last year, and his stats 2 years ago are almost identical to this year across the board. It was in response to someone saying he's only been caved in this season and it wasn't like this in the past, but thats not true. Its now 3 straight years of being a bad 5v5 player, after his first 2 seasons being average-to-decent. He has pretty much steadily gotten worse as a 5v5 player every year of his career
- vlongo4419

I am not going to drag this on, but can you just explain how going from 42% xgf to 48 is getting worse at 5v5?

I am not going to drag this on, but can you just explain how going from 42% xgf to 48 is getting worse at 5v5?
- rmdevil313

??? Can you read???? I literally said HE WAS EVEN WORSE LAST SEASON. Hello?

??? Can you read???? I literally said HE WAS EVEN WORSE LAST SEASON. Hello?
- vlongo4419

"He has pretty much steadily gotten worse as a 5v5 player every year of his career"

"He has pretty much steadily gotten worse as a 5v5 player every year of his career"
- rmdevil313

Yes, he has. From year 1 until last season he was gotten worse every single year from year to year. This season he has luck on his side and is still a negative impact 5 on 5. Its the 2nd worst year of his career. So where he started from, to now, he is a worse player. And last year was such a brutal year, that there was nowhere to go but up and even though this season is an improvement, its worse than the previous 3 years. He was straight up one of the worst 5v5 players in the league last season, it was essentially impossible to not be better this year, and he has been better but its still worse than any other year prior to last season. So yes, he has become a worse and worse 5v5 player every year.

Yes, he has. From year 1 until last season he was gotten worse every single year from year to year. This season he has luck on his side and is still a negative impact 5 on 5. Its the 2nd worst year of his career. So where he started from, to now, he is a worse player. And last year was such a brutal year, that there was nowhere to go but up and even though this season is an improvement, its worse than the previous 3 years. He was straight up one of the worst 5v5 players in the league last season, it was essentially impossible to not be better this year.
- vlongo4419

So I have:

2017- 47.5
2018- 50.8
2019- 45.4
2020- 42.4
2021- 48

Wouldn't that make it his second best season 5v5?

So I have:

2017- 47.5
2018- 50.8
2019- 45.4
2020- 42.4
2021- 48

Wouldn't that make it his second best season 5v5?
- rmdevil313

Sure, if you only tunnel on xGF% and dont know anything else about analytics. You know theres more stats that just xGF% right? Thats literally 1 stat and not the end-all-be-all. When you actually look at the whole picture, its very close but his rookie season is better than this year. And again, hes bled chances again. Just like this year, its the same story since his rookie season, hes a negative impact at 5v5. He has had 1 season, out of 5, where he was a net-neutral 5v5 player(not even a positive impact), and that was year 2. Every single other year hes a liability.

And dont even get me started about his gamescore, because thats a whole different story that paints a terrible picture for him this season for how he compares at both center and wing among the rest of the league.(its not good at all)

I mean come on, his 5v5 GD is -15 this season. On a team that has been fairly good up until recently at 5v5 as a whole. Gusev was the next closest at -12(lol we all know how garbage he was). Thats more than double anybody else on the active roster, the next closest forward is McLeod at -6. Like the guy is (frank)ing terrible and a major liability

I remember the day we drafted Zacha. I was beside myself with joy. I knew we had just won the draft in a single move. Why? Why do the hockey gods hurt me so?

I remember the day we drafted Zacha. I was beside myself with joy. I knew we had just won the draft in a single move. Why? Why do the hockey gods hurt me so?
- WayneZ

Ah yeah it definitely stings, especially when you consider the next like 4 or 5 picks immediately following him. I didnt hate the pick when we made it, i really wanted Marner to fall to us but when he was taken i was definitely on the Provorov train, as i think most Devils fans were clamoring for. I was more disappointed in missing on Provy than actually taking Zacha, if that makes sense

Ah yeah it definitely stings, especially when you consider the next like 4 or 5 picks immediately following him. I didnt hate the pick when we made it, i really wanted Marner to fall to us but when he was taken i was definitely on the Provorov train, as i think most Devils fans were clamoring for. I was more disappointed in missing on Provy than actually taking Zacha, if that makes sense
- vlongo4419

Yeah, that hurt. Especially since my brother wanted Provy and I told him Zacha was gonna be the steal of the draft.

Those seasons were wild ride after we traded for Kovy. 17 year deal, John MacLean, Stanley Cup Finals, then everyone leaves.
- rmdevil313

Looking back on it yeah what an absolute poop show we had going on with all that

Lets hope for a CBJ win over Detroit tonight, preferably in OT

Sure, if you only tunnel on xGF% and dont know anything else about analytics. You know theres more stats that just xGF% right? Thats literally 1 stat and not the end-all-be-all. When you actually look at the whole picture, its very close but his rookie season is better than this year. And again, hes bled chances again. Just like this year, its the same story since his rookie season, hes a negative impact at 5v5. He has had 1 season, out of 5, where he was a net-neutral 5v5 player(not even a positive impact), and that was year 2. Every single other year hes a liability.

And dont even get me started about his gamescore, because thats a whole different story that paints a terrible picture for him this season for how he compares at both center and wing among the rest of the league.(its not good at all)

I mean come on, his 5v5 GD is -15 this season. On a team that has been fairly good up until recently at 5v5 as a whole. Gusev was the next closest at -12(lol we all know how garbage he was). Thats more than double anybody else on the active roster, the next closest forward is McLeod at -6. Like the guy is (frank)ing terrible and a major liability
- vlongo4419

Yes, I do and that's why I asked the previous question, I was hoping you would provide the metrics you used to determine this was the second worst.

Apparently Bedard and Wright are quite the prospects too. Gona be so interesting to see how things fall and what the top 10 amount to down the road.

Apparently Bedard and Wright are quite the prospects too. Gona be so interesting to see how things fall and what the top 10 amount to down the road.
- MartysBetter88

The next 2 drafts after this year are absolutely loaded with elite level talent at the top. in 2022 Shane Wright should go #1 but Brad Lambert and Matt Savoie arent far behind. That top 3 is better than Laf/Byfield/Stutzle imo. Then you still have guys like Rutger McGroarty, Ivan Miroshnichenko, and Seamus Casey, among others who can challenge the top 5 and top 10. And obviously in 2023 you have Connor Bedard and Matvei Michkov who will challenge him for the top pick.

Then you look at this year lol. Its a stark difference between them. Looking at the top of this draft this year compared to the next 2 is like the top of the 2017 draft compared to literally any other year from 2015 to 2020. 2017 has good players, and some guys are becoming elite like a Makar, but as prospects it was considered weak compared to the surrounding years

WOOD has concrete blocks in his mitts.

Lmao someone in Todds discord just said that Bryce must've read the article on Zacha and is trying to counter it

Apparently Bedard and Wright are quite the prospects too. Gona be so interesting to see how things fall and what the top 10 amount to down the road.
- MartysBetter88

I guess its about time for Pittsburgh to get their new generational player.

Lmao someone in Todds discord just said that Bryce must've read the article on Zacha and is trying to counter it
- vlongo4419

You know the TV team isn't going to knock down the players that way especially when it's one of the few "bright spots" for the season. Everything has a positive spin around the team.

You know the TV team isn't going to knock down the players that way especially when it's one of the few "bright spots" for the season. Everything has a positive spin around the team.
- Pomegrant

Oh absolutely, they'll always try to find the positives. Tbf though, there has been a decent amount of positives this season, if you had realistic expectations coming in

Well the tankers are happy with tonights outcome. Devils regulation loss and the Jackets beat Detroit in OT, so now the Devils cannot pass anybody above them in the standings, even if they beat the Flyers monday. Now we watch to see if the Canucks can get the points to pass us

Well the tankers are happy with tonights outcome. Devils regulation loss and the Jackets beat Detroit in OT, so now the Devils cannot pass anybody above them in the standings, even if they beat the Flyers monday. Now we watch to see if the Canucks can get the points to pass us
- vlongo4419

Oh they will, they’re a way better team.

Oh they will, they’re a way better team.
- shvingter88

Yeah i cant see them not. They have 8 games left, EDMx2(including tonight), WINx2, and CGYx4. I like their chances to get atleast 4 points against the Flames. They need 3 points if we lose to the Flyers in regulation, 4 points if we lose in OT, and 5 points if we beat the Flyers.