They'll fire Torts before letting Laine go. It's just absurd to think that a team would just give up elite talent for free when under team control.
- Pomegrant

I'm not saying they let Laine walk away, but his RFA structure has him receiving a massive over payment. I see them scrapping the bridge and going long term with a much lower AAV than 7M is all I am saying. I think Jarmo has done a decent job, especially selling Savard and Foligno for a pair of 1st rd picks.

Torts is totally irrelevant. He will be gone no matter what, and I will miss the soundbites that kept the NHL world entertained. Make no mistake tho, Laine will not thrive with a coaching change. He needs elite passers teeing him up or he is useless. Texier and Domi are a farcry from the guys he had feeding him in Winnipeg. Only time will tell what his next deal is, but it will likely be a high risk deal as this kids career has been a roller-coaster.

If his package brings back a young surefire top 4 D, then yes. Funny enough, an article went up today on Todd's site about why the Devils should trade him. The main reasoning is that "while Zacha is producing individually, terrible things are happening for the Devils when hes on the ice, more so than any other forward. Nobody is on the ice for more chances against/60 and his goal differential is worst on the team."
- vlongo4419

Zacha took his foot off the gas defensively. I know I have stated this many times, but 8 blocked shots in a season is an absolute joke if you are playing top 6 minutes, and on the PK. If a top 4 D, top 6 forward, or a 1st rd pick is coming back the Devs way in exchange for Zacha, do it. Plenty of LW's itching to crack this roster and Sharan/Mcleod can always fill our the 3/4C roles. Zacha is replaceable.

Yeah, but the next year he put up 15 goals in 48 games which is pretty close to the same place AND had a higher assist rate. So it wasn't a complete fluke.

Still, it's a good example but there is no certainty the same will happen to Pavel. Zacha has one more year under the current contract and is then an RFA, so we aren't at the UFA insanity moment.

LOVED DAVID CLARKSON! Particularly when he'd beat down Avery and Dubinsky.
- Queenie_5_hole

David CLarkson was also elite according to advanced stats those two seasons. His last season before leaving his 5v5 xG rate was 60%, which is nuts.

David CLarkson was also elite according to advanced stats those two seasons. His last season before leaving his 5v5 xG rate was 60%, which is nuts.
- rmdevil313

I miss him so much

And Ryan carter

Natural stat trick has pretty much everything in that regard
- vlongo4419

Where do you get WAR though? I don't want to comment on something I don't have the stats for.

And here's a defense for Zacha, in terms of xGF, he is 9th on the team, but there are two huge factors. First, Zacha's time with Gusev was a disaster (Gusev was with everyone this year) and Zacha is basically at 50% xGF away from him. Second is other people playing with Hughes. Some players splits with and without hughes are incredible:

Bratt- 61 xgf with, 49 without
Kuok- 57 with, 46 without
Shara- 54 with, 41 without

So basically if you account for Hughes, our xGF numbers from best to worst are Hughes driving play constantly, Johnsson and Palmieri keeping solid numbers no matter who they play with, and then our 4th liners and the above mentioned players with Zacha all in the same range. And this is all before we even consider his splits at C vs LW which apparently can tell a whole different story, but I can't find anywhere that has the raw numbers and not just doing WOWY.

So while Zacha is not elite, considering we don't even have a 3rd line for next season I think its a bit early to force him out, especially when he brings a lot of value to a PP that needs all the help it can get. He's obviously not untouchable, and maybe WAR tells a different story, but I'm fine keeping him short term even if he's just a 45 pt winger.

I miss him so much

And Ryan carter
- shvingter88

Those seasons were wild ride after we traded for Kovy. 17 year deal, John MacLean, Stanley Cup Finals, then everyone leaves.

Where do you get WAR though? I don't want to comment on something I don't have the stats for.

And here's a defense for Zacha, in terms of xGF, he is 9th on the team, but there are two huge factors. First, Zacha's time with Gusev was a disaster (Gusev was with everyone this year) and Zacha is basically at 50% xGF away from him. Second is other people playing with Hughes. Some players splits with and without hughes are incredible:

Bratt- 61 xgf with, 49 without
Kuok- 57 with, 46 without
Shara- 54 with, 41 without

So basically if you account for Hughes, our xGF numbers from best to worst are Hughes driving play constantly, Johnsson and Palmieri keeping solid numbers no matter who they play with, and then our 4th liners and the above mentioned players with Zacha all in the same range. And this is all before we even consider his splits at C vs LW which apparently can tell a whole different story, but I can't find anywhere that has the raw numbers and not just doing WOWY.

So while Zacha is not elite, considering we don't even have a 3rd line for next season I think its a bit early to force him out, especially when he brings a lot of value to a PP that needs all the help it can get. He's obviously not untouchable, and maybe WAR tells a different story, but I'm fine keeping him short term even if he's just a 45 pt winger.
- rmdevil313

NST doesn't provide WAR values. You need to subscribe to some of the analytic accounts on twitter like jfresh and evolving hockey to view individual player cards

Nobody is "forcing" Zacha out. The whole point is that his market value is seemingly higher than his actual on ice value to the team, and that his current production is likely to regress back to the mean. In which case if you can get a return for him close to market value from a team who believes hes a 2nd line center, you do it. You arent giving him away, but you're selling high on a guy who is likely to regress and a guy who has a negative on-ice impact at ES no matter where he is put in the lineup. Thats the whole point of the article. If you put him in a package that can return a definite top 4 D or top 6 winger, you do it.

To put it in simpler terms, someone asked Todd on twitter if he is basically just saying that Zacha sucks despite his "decent" production this season, and Todd simply replied "yes"

NST doesn't provide WAR values. You need to subscribe to some of the analytic accounts on twitter like jfresh and evolving hockey to view individual player cards

Nobody is "forcing" Zacha out. The whole point is that his market value is seemingly higher than his actual on ice value to the team, and that his current production is likely to regress back to the mean. In which case if you can get a return for him close to market value from a team who believes hes a 2nd line center, you do it. You arent giving him away, but you're selling high on a guy who is likely to regress and a guy who has a negative on-ice impact at ES no matter where he is put in the lineup. Thats the whole point of the article. If you put him in a package that can return a definite top 4 D or top 6 winger, you do it.

To put it in simpler terms, someone asked Todd on twitter if he is basically just saying that Zacha sucks despite his "decent" production this season, and Todd simply replied "yes"
- vlongo4419

You say that no one is forcing him out but that Todd says he sucks. What is the benefit of keeping around somone that sucks? Why not just sell to the highest bidder?

Those seasons were wild ride after we traded for Kovy. 17 year deal, John MacLean, Stanley Cup Finals, then everyone leaves.
- rmdevil313

MacLean was the worst thing to happen to us in a long time. Unreal how terrible that regime was. I’ll never forget that presser with Lemaire, basically saying all these players forgot how to hockey.

Did we draft Larsson after that season? It’s all macleans fault. If he wasn’t there we’d make that playoffs, do the devils thing, then actually have a proper rebuild- because the Larsson for Hall trade would’ve never happened to delay the rebuild and miss out on some great 1st overall picks.
Or maybe I’m not remembering correctly.

Either way, here we are, in the present. Happy Saturday.

You say that no one is forcing him out but that Todd says he sucks. What is the benefit of keeping around somone that sucks? Why not just sell to the highest bidder?
- rmdevil313

Yes, im saying nobody is forcing him out in the context of the article, which was to sell high on a player who will never retain the current value hes at. Nobody said to give him away for free, Todd is just giving his opinion which is that he thinks Zacha sucks. Which is why he's hard on the trade Zacha train.

Yes, im saying nobody is forcing him out in the context of the article, which was to sell high on a player who will never retain the current value hes at. Nobody said to give him away for free, Todd is just giving his opinion which is that he thinks Zacha sucks. Which is why he's hard on the trade Zacha train.
- vlongo4419

This is a quote from the article

"To close here, I’m sure you’re all wondering “If we should trade Zacha, what we should get back for him?” My short answer to that question is this: it pretty much doesn’t matter."


I don't want to argue semantics but to me that sounds like someone who wants him gone no matter what.

MacLean was the worst thing to happen to us in a long time. Unreal how terrible that regime was. I’ll never forget that presser with Lemaire, basically saying all these players forgot how to hockey.

Did we draft Larsson after that season? It’s all macleans fault. If he wasn’t there we’d make that playoffs, do the devils thing, then actually have a proper rebuild- because the Larsson for Hall trade would’ve never happened to delay the rebuild and miss out on some great 1st overall picks.
Or maybe I’m not remembering correctly.

Either way, here we are, in the present. Happy Saturday.
- MartysBetter88

Maclean has an argument for worst coach of all time. I've never seen a team fall apart so quickly after getting a new coach and put it back together so quickly after getting rid of him.

I see this as a "sell high" moment with Zacha and with asset management you can't just give him away for free. I understand that he was caved in defensively all year but in years past it wasn't like this so can you attribute this to Zacha now just sucking at defense or maybe there wasn't time to learn under new coach/new system/no practice/covid.

This is a quote from the article

"To close here, I’m sure you’re all wondering “If we should trade Zacha, what we should get back for him?” My short answer to that question is this: it pretty much doesn’t matter."


I don't want to argue semantics but to me that sounds like someone who wants him gone no matter what.
- rmdevil313

The guy who wrote the article clarified in the IA discord that has saying the return doesnt matter in terms of getting near market value. He will trade him for literally anything that is even close to the perceived value. Because in reality Zacha isn't worth that.

I see this as a "sell high" moment with Zacha and with asset management you can't just give him away for free. I understand that he was caved in defensively all year but in years past it wasn't like this so can you attribute this to Zacha now just sucking at defense or maybe there wasn't time to learn under new coach/new system/no practice/covid.
- Pomegrant

It's not just this season though, that's the point. Its the last 3 seasons. Zacha has always been caved in and poor defensively at even strength, he was even worse last year than this season and 2 years ago is nearly identical to this year. Hence why he has the 4th worst ES goal differential in the entire league in the last 3 seasons. The Devils just get dumped on when hes on the ice at 5v5 and they give up more chances against when hes on the ice than anybody else on the team. The difference now is that Zacha is also horrible on the PK too whereas he was elite last season

He is a man advantage specialist who gives it all back(and much more) at 5v5

The guy who wrote the article clarified in the IA discord that has saying the return doesnt matter in terms of getting near market value. He will trade him for literally anything that is even close to the perceived value. Because in reality Zacha isn't worth that.
- vlongo4419

Fair enough, what I will disagree with is that I don't want a package for Zacha. We should be packaging Zacha if we're moving him. Don't need more 2nd round picks.

I see this as a "sell high" moment with Zacha and with asset management you can't just give him away for free. I understand that he was caved in defensively all year but in years past it wasn't like this so can you attribute this to Zacha now just sucking at defense or maybe there wasn't time to learn under new coach/new system/no practice/covid.
- Pomegrant

The wing vs center splits are also very relevant, and the guy in the article just sort of handwaves it away by including previous years. He also says anyone could look good with Nico and Bratt but that ignores that Zacha and Bratt have done better analytically this year without Nico than with.

Fair enough, what I will disagree with is that I don't want a package for Zacha. We should be packaging Zacha if we're moving him. Don't need more 2nd round picks.
- rmdevil313

I 100% agree with that, I dont even want a 1st round pick for him. I want a roster player that can step into our lineup and make an immediate impact. I will gladly package the Isles 1st and Zacha to get a true top 6 winger or a top 4 D. I look at a team like Vancouver who needs to shed salary, i'd try to make a Zacha for Boeser swap work, even if we need to add to it.

The wing vs center splits are also very relevant, and the guy in the article just sort of handwaves it away by including previous years. He also says anyone could look good with Nico and Bratt but that ignores that Zacha and Bratt have done better analytically this year without Nico than with.
- rmdevil313

There is something to keeping him around to try converting him to a wing full time, but also you could just let somebody else deal with that problem. I see it both ways and would rather the team just to not be poop at some point so if that involved dumping Zacha then I'm fine.

The wing vs center splits are also very relevant, and the guy in the article just sort of handwaves it away by including previous years. He also says anyone could look good with Nico and Bratt but that ignores that Zacha and Bratt have done better analytically this year without Nico than with.
- rmdevil313

Thats kind of expected, no? For this season. Nico is dealing with a ton of crap and has played essentially half of his games(or more) playing catchup trying to get back into shape and up to game speed, shaking off rust, ect. Nico in general hasnt been good this season, he's posting career lows in pretty much every analytical metric, which isnt a surprise at all. Not really a fair thing to judge, this entire season is a wash for Nico

Thats kind of expected, no? For this season. Nico is dealing with a ton of crap and has played essentially half of his games(or more) playing catchup trying to get back into shape and up to game speed, shaking off rust, ect. Nico in general hasnt been good this season, he's posting career lows in pretty much every analytical metric, which isnt a surprise at all. Not really a fair thing to judge, this entire season is a wash for Nico
- vlongo4419

Wasn't a slight at Nico, I was just pointing out a flaw in the articles argument. He says anyone could look good with Nico and Bratt but to prove it he combines two timeframes. One where everyone agrees Pavel sucked and one where Pavel and Bratt, both together and individually, did better without Nico. Just strikes me as a weak point.

Wasn't a slight at Nico, I was just pointing out a flaw in the articles argument. He says anyone could look good with Nico and Bratt but to prove it he combines two timeframes. One where everyone agrees Pavel sucked and one where Pavel and Bratt, both together and individually, did better without Nico. Just strikes me as a weak point.
- rmdevil313

Its not a weak point at all though. He's used the past 2 seasons because thats when they've started playing major minutes together and the sample size is much larger than the small sample of this season where its been an interrupted and injury filled year for Nico. Prior to 2 seasons ago, they only played together for a total of like 5 minutes. I dont see how thats a weak point when he is taking the data from essentially their entire time playing together? Lol

Its not a weak point at all though. He's used the past 2 seasons because thats when they've started playing major minutes together and the sample size is much larger than the small sample of this season where its been an interrupted and injury filled year for Nico. I dont see how thats a weak point? Lol
- vlongo4419

Because the whole argument isn't how good Zacha was last season. Everyone agrees he sucked. Its about this season and so adding data thats not from this season is irrelevant.

And for what its worth, Zacha and Bratt have spent over 200 minutes ES together and been very good, with or without Nico. What is the cutoff for small sample size?

Because the whole argument isn't how good Zacha was last season. Everyone agrees he sucked. Its about this season and so adding data thats not from this season is irrelevant.
- rmdevil313

Its not just about this season though. Thats. The. Whole. Point. The argument is that Zacha has always sucked, hes just been lucky this season and is going to regress back to the mean. People think hes all of a sudden turned a corner and is good now because hes putting up points, which isnt the case. If you just use this season, its completely skewed and flawed because Nico had just been flat out bad trying to recover from everything, he has brought down pretty much all lines hes played with, which isnt a shock. So you need to use the whole entire sample size of them together. Which is, a healthy Nico and Bratt are better without Zacha than with. Whats hard to understand about this?

Zacha is tragically bad without both of them(worse than either of them are by themselves), and when hes put with them they're worse than they are without him. You cant keep a player like that in your top 6, its just going to continuously cost you games. So again, i keep going back to my point which nobody wants to answer. Where does he fit in the long run? The answer is, he doesnt.

About your second point, thats not true either. In their entire time playing together, not just a cherry picked timeline to fit a narrative:
Nico and Bratt without Zacha: 548 minutes, 48.7% CF, 50.8% SF, 57.1% GF, 54.8% xGF, 51.5% SCF, and 60.2% HDCF
Bratt and Zacha without Nico: 539 minutes, 49.7% CF, 48.8% SF, 42.4% GF, 46.9% xGF, 45.4% SCF, and 46.5% HDCF

Its not even close. Nico and Bratt without Zacha are far and away better together than Bratt and Zacha without Nico. Essentially even minutes too. And thats including how bad Nico has been this season, so think about how big that gap was prior to Nicos numbers bringing down those totals this season.


So again the question. Where does he fit on this team long term? He sucks as a center, he isnt good enough to consistently perform in a top 6 winger role, he gets cratered at 5v5 and isnt good defensively so why would you want that in a bottom 6 role, and he is a negative impact on the PK now. So we have a power play specialist, who is likely to regress in that metric, that brings literally nothing else of value to the team. Its that easy to understand. He doesnt fit.

Its not just about this season though. Thats. The. Whole. Point. The argument is that Zacha has always sucked, hes just been lucky this season and is going to regress back to the mean. If you just use this season, its completely skewed and flawed because Nico had just been flat out bad trying to recover from everything, he has brought down pretty much all lines hes played with,
- vlongo4419

I'm just going to respond to this part. In terms of counting totals yes, regression is expected. But Pavel put up a 42 xGF last year, he's at 48 this year. Trying to say that its the same player is disingenuous. Also, Bratt and Nico had great numbers together last year, propped up by an insane 60% xgf with Palms, who they spent almost half their time together with. Whose our current replacement for prime palmieri?