the only reason i feel it could matter is the completely unknown *if* having one Hughes would influence the other Hughes to stay when he hits his prime..

.. not that picking 4th over 7th would guarantee we even pick Hughes..

and not that picking Hughes would even = him being a NHL dman..

..and not knowing if Jack would even care or even wants to play with his brother to begin with..
- MartysBetter88

Yeah all of that should be irrelevant. You take the best player available, you don't pick someone just because hes the brother of a player you currently have. Hughes is the one D most likely to fall out of the top 5, so there's a good chance he drops to us anyway. Luckily for us, the first tier of players lasts 8-9 players deep so we're in a great spot.

We definitely need some toughness....that Greer kid seemed willing to drop the gloves.
- Jazzmaster30

Yeah but he doesn’t have any playing ability

the only reason i feel it could matter is the completely unknown *if* having one Hughes would influence the other Hughes to stay when he hits his prime..

.. not that picking 4th over 7th would guarantee we even pick Hughes..

and not that picking Hughes would even = him being a NHL dman..

..and not knowing if Jack would even care or even wants to play with his brother to begin with..
- MartysBetter88

Great points

So are we trading Zacha while his value is high?

So are we trading Zacha while his value is high?
- RubberBiscuitz

If his package brings back a young surefire top 4 D, then yes. Funny enough, an article went up today on Todd's site about why the Devils should trade him. The main reasoning is that "while Zacha is producing individually, terrible things are happening for the Devils when hes on the ice, more so than any other forward. Nobody is on the ice for more chances against/60 and his goal differential is worst on the team."

If his package brings back a young surefire top 4 D, then yes. Funny enough, an article went up today on Todd's site about why the Devils should trade him. The main reasoning is that "while Zacha is producing individually, terrible things are happening for the Devils when hes on the ice, more so than any other forward. Nobody is on the ice for more chances against/60 and his goal differential is worst on the team."
- vlongo4419

Lol that’s why I commented it. I miss Todd.

Lol that’s why I commented it. I miss Todd.
- RubberBiscuitz

Haha yeah me too. I'm happy hes still writing about the Devils though, even if it is for a subscription

"Our 24 year old, 6'3 210lb top pick just had a career year, led team in points and has great chemistry with Nico and Bratt, hurry trade him"

wtf.

I hope they sign him to 8 yrs.

Zacha had a career year in counting totals but the problem was that he got a lot of those points while on the power play and the points he did score even strength doesn't offset how much he got outscored when on the ice. This is the perfect time to trick a team into thinking he's good and get an actually good player in return for him.

"Our 24 year old, 6'3 210lb top pick just had a career year, led team in points and has great chemistry with Nico and Bratt, hurry trade him"

wtf.

I hope they sign him to 8 yrs.
- Leniwm1

That would be brutal if they signed him to 8 years based off this season. If hes not traded i'd wait to see what he does next season, in which he is likely to regress offensively, and give him another bridge deal.

His value is at an all-time high and his value is likely higher in the market than it actually is on the ice. Fitz would be stupid to not get feelers on what possible returns would be.

That would be brutal if they signed him to 8 years based off this season. If hes not traded i'd wait to see what he does next season, in which he is likely to regress offensively, and give him another bridge deal.

His value is at an all-time high, and higher than it will end be, and his value is likely higher in the market than it actually is on the ice. Fitz would be stupid to not get feelers on what possible returns would be.
- vlongo4419

I dont understand. He'll be 25. He posseses a wicked wrister and is such a great passer. Why would he regress, especially with Nico and Bratt getting better?

I dont understand. He'll be 25. He posseses a wicked wrister and is such a great passer. Why would he regress, especially with Nico and Bratt getting better?
- Leniwm1

Why would he regress? Because hes shooting almost 17% this season in a career where his average before this season is 9.5%. He's going to regress to the mean. His shooting talent is a thing, but its only been shown to be true on the power play. He has never been a good even strength shooter, but hes been more lucky than anything this season

I wont even get into his actual on-ice impacts and defensive impacts though, even over the past 3 seasons, because theyre flat out bad.

You can throw anybody onto the wing on a line with Nico and Bratt and they will still produce. So not only does every single winger on the team have worse results when Zacha is their center, but also Nico and Bratt have both been better without Zacha on their line. So wherever he has been put, his linemates play worse at 5v5 with him than without him...

Why would he regress? Because hes shooting almost 17% this season in a career where his average before this season is 9.5%. He's going to regress to the mean. His shooting talent is a thing, but its only been shown to be true on the power play. He has never been a good even strength shooter, but hes been more lucky than anything this season

I wont even get into his actual on-ice impacts and defensive impacts though, even over the past 3 seasons, because theyre flat out bad.

You can throw anybody onto the wing on a line with Nico and Bratt and they will still produce. Nico and Bratt have both been better without Zacha on their line.
- vlongo4419

Wouldn't that shooting % be a result of taking more shots where it has a greater chance of scoring vs shooting from anywhere? He also passes a lot, which takes away from more shots on net.
How is this bad? He puts himself in positions to score and where he had best chance to score.
To me thats called development and learning the game.

If my idea of what shooting % is correct, why would all of a sudden that get worse?

Jack has a 7.9% with 140 shots on net. If he decided not to shoot from anywhere on the ice and be more selective, making his % go up, would you say that he would eventually regress the next season or that he is learning to shoot from better spots?

many players on the team have high %. To me this means a style of team play was a root cause, and coaches teaching where on the ice you get best chances to score and how to get into better positioning. Singling out Zacha when Mikeys, Woods, Nicos and other have high % is unfair.

Wouldn't that shooting % be a result of taking more shots where it has a greater chance of scoring vs shooting from anywhere? He also passes a lot, which takes away from more shots on net.
How is this bad? He puts himself in positions to score and where he had best chance to score.
To me thats called development and learning the game.

If my idea of what shooting % is correct, why would all of a sudden that get worse?

Jack has a 7.9% with 140 shots on net. If he decided not to shoot from anywhere on the ice and be more selective, making his % go up, would you say that he would eventually regress the next season or that he is learning to shoot from better spots?
- Leniwm1

There are a lot of factors at play here; puck luck, shoot volume, and quality of chances.

Zacha has a hard shot but his shooting percentage is way above his career average before this. Is he better at shooting this year or is it because he has a small sample size that he just got lucky. What indications are there that he is a better shooter this year other than he has more raw goals than in years past. Because the numbers also show that he basically doesn't generate any offense and requires somebody else to give him a chance to shoot.

What's happening with Jack is that his shooting percentage is low but not because he's unlucky or taking shots for bad areas. He's getting a lot of high danger chances he just isn't burying his shots which shows that he needs to improve on his shooting. However he generates so much offense himself that it offsets him not scoring as much as he should given the volume and quality of the chances he gets.

Wouldn't that shooting % be a result of taking more shots where it has a greater chance of scoring vs shooting from anywhere? He also passes a lot, which takes away from more shots on net.
How is this bad? He puts himself in positions to score and where he had best chance to score.
To me thats called development and learning the game.

If my idea of what shooting % is correct, why would all of a sudden that get worse?

Jack has a 7.9% with 140 shots on net. If he decided not to shoot from anywhere on the ice and be more selective, making his % go up, would you say that he would eventually regress the next season or that he is learning to shoot from better spots?
- Leniwm1

You would think that but its not necessarily true. Zacha's uptick in goals is mostly due to increased minutes and a higher percent of those minutes being on the power play. People have dug into it very deeply and based on both the quantity and quality of his shot selections, he should have 9.71 goals, but he has 16. Thats a 50% overachievement. While its not an impossible rate of conversion, thats putting him in the company of guys like Stamkos, Pastrnak, and Laine.

Coming into this season Zacha's even-strength shooting has never exceeded expectations until this season, where hes shooting at 150% overachievement. Its just not sustainable. He has certainly improved as a shooter over the past few seasons, but the huge improvement is just mostly due to luck and usage.

So if his goal totals regress back to average/normal, what else does he bring to the table? Literally nothing it seems like.

Over the past 3 seasons, the Devils have been outscored by 39 with Zacha on the ice at even strength. Thats the 4th worst in the entire NHL in that time. Not just the Devils, the ENTIRE league.

People think hes a good fit on Nico and Bratts line but thats not necessarily true either. In 2 years of that line getting big minutes together, Nico and Bratt are both better in terms of actual goals AND expected goals without Zacha on their line. With him they're a -2 and without him they're at +6. You can put anybody on the wing on that line and they will likely produce at a better rate than with him.

So where does he actually fit? I dont think he does in the long term, in which case if you can get anything close to market value for him and sell high you need to do it

You would think that but its not necessarily true. Zacha's uptick in goals is mostly due to increased minutes and a higher percent of those minutes being on the power play. People have dug into it very deeply and based on both the quantity and quality of his shot selections, he should have 9.71 goals, but he has 16. Thats a 50% overachievement. While its not an impossible rate of conversion, thats putting him in the company of guys like Stamkos, Pastrnak, and Laine.

Coming into this season Zacha's even-strength shooting has never exceeded expectations until this season, where hes shooting at 150% overachievement. Its just not sustainable. He has certainly improved as a shooter over the past few seasons, but the huge improvement is just mostly due to luck and usage.

So if his goal totals regress back to average/normal, what else does he bring to the table? Literally nothing it seems like.

Over the past 3 seasons, the Devils have been outscored by 39 with Zacha on the ice at even strength. Thats the 4th worst in the entire NHL in that time. Not just the Devils, the ENTIRE league.

People think hes a good fit on Nico and Bratts line but thats not necessarily true either. In 2 years of that line getting big minutes together, Nico and Bratt are both better in terms of actual goals AND expected goals without Zacha on their line. With him they're a -2 and without him they're at +6. You can put anybody on the wing on that line and they will likely produce at a better rate than with him.

So where does he actually fit? I dont think he does in the long term, in which case if you can get anything close to market value for him and sell high you need to do it
- vlongo4419

I dont know if you guys caught the edit I made before, but its basically many players on the team have high %. Woudlnt this tell you that it was from a style of team play not necessarily Zacha getting lucky? if he was the only guy I might agree more, but its like 6-7 kids with high %.

I dont know if you guys caught the edit I made before, but its basically many players on the team have high %. Woudlnt this tell you that it was from a style of team play not necessarily Zacha getting lucky? if he was the only guy I might agree more, but its like 6-7 kids with high %.
- Leniwm1

Sure, everybody is somewhat high but he is still the highest shooting % on the team among everybody who had played double digit games besides Zajac. He just shoots less than guys like Wood, Hughes, and Sharangovich. But again, where does he fit? Everywhere he is put, that line is worse than without him. He's a power play specialist shooter and provides nothing else of value.

His WAR is sub-replacement level and among the lowest on the team, and actually dropped this season from his career average. He just gets cratered on the ice. And thats telling because it's a stat that is heavily influenced by goals so its essentially saying Zacha costs us wins.

Zacha's season is basically Clarkson's 30 goal season. You let somebody else overpay him for subpar play and be happy about it.

Zacha's season is basically Clarkson's 30 goal season. You let somebody else overpay him for subpar play and be happy about it.
- Pomegrant

Lol i was about to say...”see David Clarkson.”

If we don’t think he’ll repeat this season totals then you trade him while his value is at an all time high.

Zacha's season is basically Clarkson's 30 goal season. You let somebody else overpay him for subpar play and be happy about it.
- Pomegrant

Yeah, but the next year he put up 15 goals in 48 games which is pretty close to the same place AND had a higher assist rate. So it wasn't a complete fluke.

Still, it's a good example but there is no certainty the same will happen to Pavel. Zacha has one more year under the current contract and is then an RFA, so we aren't at the UFA insanity moment.

LOVED DAVID CLARKSON! Particularly when he'd beat down Avery and Dubinsky.

Somewhat expected given the lack of games he's played this season, but its confirmed that Nico will be playing in the World Championships for Switzerland. I wonder who else will be going

Everywhere he is put, that line is worse than without him. He's a power play specialist shooter and provides nothing else of value.

His WAR is sub-replacement level and among the lowest on the team, and actually dropped this season from his career average. He just gets cratered on the ice. And thats telling because it's a stat that is heavily influenced by goals so its essentially saying Zacha costs us wins.
- vlongo4419

Just curious, where do you get stats broken down by line combinations?

Just curious, where do you get stats broken down by line combinations?
- Sashamook

Natural stat trick has pretty much everything in that regard

Zacha's season is basically Clarkson's 30 goal season. You let somebody else overpay him for subpar play and be happy about it.
- Pomegrant

Oh how dare you bring my boy into this

Lines at morning skate today:

Kuok-Hughes-Shara
Zacha-Hischier-Bratt
Wood-McLeod-Bastian
Foote-Boqvist-Johnsson

Murray-Sevo
Butcher-Siegenthaler
Bahl-Tenny

Mac in the starters net