Tanev's rate of production continues to climb every season. He isn't a regular old bottom 6 role player. Also, Seattle is selling something not just building something. Tanev plays the type of hockey that even the newest fan would get excited over. It's not just production and value, it's marketing. A new team would benefit from a guy like him.
- burgh4life87
His rate of production has not climbed every season. It dipped pretty significantly last season. Tanev’s 5v5 pts/60 rates and shooting percentage since he started getting regular NHL minutes:
16/17: 0.5, 3.7%
17/18: 1.4, 10.1
18/19: 1.5, 11.0%
19/20: 1.2, 11.6%
20/21: 1.6, 16.3%
Two important things: 1) players scoring primes fall between aged 24-27. 2)From the data it can be reasonably assumed that Tanev’s normal shooting no percentage is somewhere in the 10-11% rage (which is actually pretty good and unexpected from a player in Tanev’s mold).
During his scoring prime, Tanev put up 1.4 and 1.5 pts/60 on his normal shooting percentage, which is pretty good relative to his role. Last year in his first post-scoring prime year he posted 1.2 pts/60 shooting in the high range of his normal shooting percentage. That is decidedly not good, and when you experience a significant decline in production rates while maintaining your normal shooting levels, that’s typically indicative of decline.
This year, Tanev is putting up 1.6 pts/60, which is great, but he’s also shooting way above his typical percentage, which is not sustainable in the long run. With a normalized shooting percentage, it’s likely Tanev’s scoring rates are closer to last year than they are to what he was doing in his two prime years like it is now. There is certainly cause for concern in these numbers that Tanev is already in scoring decline and could be really bad value in two years.
