That generational tab is reseved for Gretsky, Howe, maybe Ovechkin or Crosby (i hate that im saying that)...Eichel is a full step below. I still dont see the Sabres trading him. - DANCER
I agree the generational tab used too much (side note mcdavid also)
Eichel probably not generational
Generational players you give up whatever to get them
Eichel I’d put in level just below. Reserved for maybe 10 players in league. And you give almost whatever is necessary for them.
Coots definitely not a trade blocker
The Athletic has a nice article regarding the warranted "concern level" of young players. In order of increasing concern, the rankings are: TK, Sanheim, Oskar, Hart, Provorov, Myers, NAK, and NoPa.
I repost selected excerpts:
Philippe Myers
The numbers: Myers’ profile is basically that of Sanheim but without the shiny advanced stats.
Like Sanheim, he is struggling to score. And like Sanheim, Flyers goalies aren’t stopping pucks with Myers on the ice at five-on-five (.863 on-ice save percentage). But unlike Sanheim, Myers isn’t driving play. Now, in fairness, it’s not like Myers’ results by Evolving-Hockey’s public xG formula are terrible (49.83 percent). But they’re certainly not great, and when taken in tandem with the fact that the Flyers are getting blitzed from a goal standpoint with him on the ice and he hasn’t helped create much offense for his team either, things start to look grim pretty fast.
The reality check: If anything, the numbers undersell the depth of Myers’ struggles this season. He’s been benched multiple times by the coaching staff, and despite his clear physical upside at 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds, it’s tough to argue the decision to sit him. Myers’ March was truly one to forget, as he finished with just one point and was on the ice for 25 goals against. Right now, he looks like a young player completely lacking confidence, and considering the fact that his entire defensive strategy had previously been based around operating in constant attack mode, it’s no surprise that his play has collapsed without that willingness to actively force turnovers and changes of possession.
Concern level: 7
The difference between Myers and players like Provorov and Sanheim is that those two have proven that they can succeed at the NHL level. With Myers, there’s really only the second half of 2019-20 as evidence that he can be an above-average NHLer. This season was supposed to be when he removed all doubts; instead, he’s merely opened the door for even more.
The good news is that Myers’ underlying metrics are merely underwhelming rather than downright poor, so perhaps his struggles aren’t quite as dramatic as his awful goal-based results make them seem to be. But Myers’ lack of NHL track record combined with his thoroughly disappointing sophomore season creates real uncertainty surrounding his ultimate upside. He’s still a physical freak, and that should be enough to keep him in the NHL, and certainly could allow him to bounce back in a big way. But it’s no longer safe to assume Myers is a lock to be a long-term top-four defenseman.
The numbers: Well, Provorov’s scoring totals are fine, so there’s that.
In terms of moving the needle from a shot and chance standpoint, however, Provorov hasn’t graded out well at all. Yes, a No. 1 defenseman takes on the toughest matchups and the most minutes. But he also receives lots of shifts with the team’s best forwards, which generally helps elevate his underlying numbers. In Provorov’s case, though, the Flyers have generated just 47.98 percent of the shot attempts and 47.68 percent of the expected goals with him on the ice at five-on-five. He was in the 52 percent range by both metrics in 2019-20. The dropoff has been undeniable.
The reality check: Provorov doesn’t pass the numbers test, and he certainly hasn’t passed the eye test. While his off-puck defense remains a strength — rarely has he been part of the kind of glaring breakdowns that have plagued Sanheim and Philippe Myers — Provorov has struggled mightily to avoid turnovers, both at even strength and on the power play.
Of course, he’s certainly missed Matt Niskanen, and any analysis of Provorov’s season isn’t complete without acknowledging the fact that the front office didn’t do much to give him help. Still, this was supposed to be the season when Provorov no longer needed that help to thrive as a top-pair NHL defenseman. Apparently, he still does.
Concern level: 6
Ivan Provorov may be having a bad season, but he’s certainly not a bad player. He proved in 2017-18 and 2019-20 that he can be an above-average NHL defenseman even in heavy-minute, top-pair duties, and a player doesn’t pull that off by accident.
That said, his NHL track record implies that Provorov can only excel in that role when alongside a strong partner (peak Shayne Gostisbehere in 2017-18, Niskanen in 2019-20). Ask Provorov to “carry” a pair — even if that means merely elevating a good second-pair caliber blueliner — and his results suffer in a big way. The concern regarding Provorov isn’t that he’s in the process of regressing into a useless player; it’s that he isn’t the no-doubt-about-it No. 1 defenseman that the Flyers desperately need him to be, and given the fact that he’s already 24 years old, he might never reach that point. It’s possible he’s merely a big-minutes No. 2 — a valuable player, to be sure, but not the cornerstone of a Cup contender.
The numbers: In short: They’re terrible. The expand on that: They’re worse than terrible.
If the season ended today, Hart’s negative-26.30 Goals Saved Above Expected total would be 18th-worst by a starting goalie (500 unblocked shots faced, minimum) in a single season since 2007-08. After accounting for time on ice, it would be the third-worst. And by raw save percentage, Hart’s current .872 would be the second-worst over that timeframe, better than only Maxime Lagace (.868) for Vegas in 2017-18.
It’s been really rough for Hart.
The reality check: That said, it’s not all Hart’s fault. His work prior to the COVID-19 pause was largely fine, despite underwhelming numbers, as he was under a barrage of shots due to the Flyers’ structureless early-season work. March, of course, did see the wheels come off, but his defense didn’t do him any favors either.
It’s essentially impossible to separate Hart’s play from the work of the Philadelphia defense, especially because it’s fairly easy to argue that Hart’s collapse in terms of underlying process was driven by the skaters’ inability to provide him much in the way of stable support.
That’s not to say the problems with Hart’s game aren’t real. Teams have been beating him glove side far too often, and his depth in net screams confidence issues. This is a goaltender that clearly is in need of technical adjustment, and while his late March “reset” seems to have helped a bit, an .892 save percentage in April still isn’t good, even if it’s a far cry from his ghastly .815 rate in March. Fixing this on the fly hasn’t worked yet, and with just a month to go in 2020-21, a full-fledged rebound just might not be in the cards this season.
Concern level: 5
Before this, Hart hadn’t had a poor season at any level pretty much ever. He dominated junior hockey. He excelled in international play. And after some brief struggles in the AHL, he quickly mastered that league before jumping up to the NHL and immediately establishing himself as an above-average netminder there too. This is the first time since Hart was a child that he’s having a year that can legitimately be called “bad.”
Now, sometimes goalies never figure it back out after publicly faltering. Just ask Matt Murray, who went from two-time Stanley Cup winner to being one of the worst starters in the league … in Ottawa. Other times, it can take years for a netminder to rediscover past form (Steve Mason). The possibility of a Hart spiral can’t be ruled out entirely, and considering just how important he is to the future of the Flyers’ organization, that’s undeniably a concern.
That said, this is an extraordinarily strange season, and Hart’s disastrous March sure seemed to be driven in large part by the relentless schedule and the resulting inability of Hart to actually address the holes in his technique with extensive practice. Even just a brief week-long reset returned him to respectability — give him a full offseason, and it’s reasonable to expect that the notoriously driven Hart figures it out.
Now, that doesn’t mean this entire season should simply be tossed out of Hart’s overall sample size. It happened, and perhaps the hockey world at large should pull back on assuming that Hart is destined for stardom because of it. That certainly could lower the ceiling of future Flyers clubs. But it’s pretty difficult to imagine that this is the real Carter Hart and that the years and years of success at multiple levels (including the NHL) were the mirage.
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot! Joined: 09.01.2012
Apr 16 @ 1:58 PM ET
Eichel isn't elite. He's Taylor Hall level. - Tomahawk
I don’t even know what this means. For years there were debates around here that Jake Voracek was elite. Eichel and Hall have always been better than Voracek.
That all sounds like a great 2c...
Nothing in there describes a true 1c - SMS4016
He's is hands down a 1c. Unless you think in a 31 team league, there are only 15 #1 centers. If that's the case, your thinking on the matter is flawed.
The numbers: Well, Provorov’s scoring totals are fine, so there’s that.
In terms of moving the needle from a shot and chance standpoint, however, Provorov hasn’t graded out well at all. Yes, a No. 1 defenseman takes on the toughest matchups and the most minutes. But he also receives lots of shifts with the team’s best forwards, which generally helps elevate his underlying numbers. In Provorov’s case, though, the Flyers have generated just 47.98 percent of the shot attempts and 47.68 percent of the expected goals with him on the ice at five-on-five. He was in the 52 percent range by both metrics in 2019-20. The dropoff has been undeniable.
The reality check: Provorov doesn’t pass the numbers test, and he certainly hasn’t passed the eye test. While his off-puck defense remains a strength — rarely has he been part of the kind of glaring breakdowns that have plagued Sanheim and Philippe Myers — Provorov has struggled mightily to avoid turnovers, both at even strength and on the power play.
Of course, he’s certainly missed Matt Niskanen, and any analysis of Provorov’s season isn’t complete without acknowledging the fact that the front office didn’t do much to give him help. Still, this was supposed to be the season when Provorov no longer needed that help to thrive as a top-pair NHL defenseman. Apparently, he still does.
Concern level: 6
Ivan Provorov may be having a bad season, but he’s certainly not a bad player. He proved in 2017-18 and 2019-20 that he can be an above-average NHL defenseman even in heavy-minute, top-pair duties, and a player doesn’t pull that off by accident.
That said, his NHL track record implies that Provorov can only excel in that role when alongside a strong partner (peak Shayne Gostisbehere in 2017-18, Niskanen in 2019-20). Ask Provorov to “carry” a pair — even if that means merely elevating a good second-pair caliber blueliner — and his results suffer in a big way. The concern regarding Provorov isn’t that he’s in the process of regressing into a useless player; it’s that he isn’t the no-doubt-about-it No. 1 defenseman that the Flyers desperately need him to be, and given the fact that he’s already 24 years old, he might never reach that point. It’s possible he’s merely a big-minutes No. 2 — a valuable player, to be sure, but not the cornerstone of a Cup contender. - PT21
Agreed, Provy is good, but over rated by most flyers fans. Just far too many mistakes.
I would agree that Eichel's stats are not elite but he has played on some pretty poor teams. I would argue that if we are going to "blow up the core" than we need to replace Jake or JVR or G with high level talent. I do NOT give up Coots for him.
I believe he has the skills to be elite in the right environment.
We can then debate if Eichel or Coots is 1C.
Lindblom - Coots - TK or Farabee
Allison - Eichel - Farabee or TK
One other thing, we are turning Laughton into Matt Read. He is not a 2nd line player long term. He has been one of our better forwards this season so I think he belongs there now, but he is a 3rd or 4th line guy.
He's is hands down a 1c. Unless you think in a 31 team league, there are only 15 #1 centers. If that's the case, your thinking on the matter is flawed. - bradster
He would rate as an average 1c at best.
He’d rate as a great 2c at best
I would agree that Eichel's stats are not elite but he has played on some pretty poor teams. I would argue that if we are going to "blow up the core" than we need to replace Jake or JVR or G with high level talent. I do NOT give up Coots for him.
I believe he has the skills to be elite in the right environment.
We can then debate if Eichel or Coots is 1C.
Lindblom - Coots - TK or Farabee
Allison - Eichel - Farabee or TK
One other thing, we are turning Laughton into Matt Read. He is not a 2nd line player long term. He has been one of our better forwards this season so I think he belongs there now, but he is a 3rd or 4th line guy. - cdearth23
I agree the generational tab used too much (side note mcdavid also)
Eichel probably not generational
Generational players you give up whatever to get them
Eichel I’d put in level just below. Reserved for maybe 10 players in league. And you give almost whatever is necessary for them.
Coots definitely not a trade blocker - SMS4016
apparently you forgot you were saying this about eichel not too long ago...
As a Buffalo resident and frequent game goer I can assure he’s generational - SMS4016
I never said that he was the ACME or APEX or the Standard All Should Be Measured By. Replacing his ability (reliability is the best ability) and longitudinal performances are about impossible.
I also like him for his character. He's the son I would have liked.
One last thing, he can take care of himself and not many are willing to chance a direct confrontation with his raw bone physicality.
When I recall Clarkie, everybody had to defend his loose interpretation of stick work. A lot of effort was expended to do so. Coots doesn't require backup.
He, to me, is a principal cog in this team's performance and should remain so for his career.
I agree the generational tab used too much (side note mcdavid also)
Eichel probably not generational
Generational players you give up whatever to get them
Eichel I’d put in level just below. Reserved for maybe 10 players in league. And you give almost whatever is necessary for them.
Coots definitely not a trade blocker - SMS4016
If Buffalo trades Eichel thats pretty much starting a rebuild from scratch. I dont see him moving. You are pretty much looking at selling the farm if he's available.
He would rate as an average 1c at best.
He’d rate as a great 2c at best - SMS4016
Lol wut?
Jack Eichel is 24 Years old. Two years younger than Couturier and he has over a point per game in 2 of the last 3 seasons. His career high is 82 points and he had 78 points last season which was 2 points better than Couturier.....
2017-18: 64 points in 67 games
2018-19: 82 points in 77 games
2019-20: 78 points in 68 games
2020-21: 18 points in 21 games
apparently you forgot you were saying this about eichel not too long ago... - Ftown19125
I think he would be generational on a good team. Or at least that would be his ceiling. But if we’re using very tight guidelines for generational as in 1 in every 25 years type talent then no he isn’t
Jack Eichel is 24 Years old. Two years younger than Couturier and he has over a point per game in 2 of the last 3 seasons. His career high is 82 points and he had 78 points last season which was 2 points better than Couturier.....
2017-18: 64 points in 67 games
2018-19: 82 points in 77 games
2019-20: 78 points in 68 games
2020-21: 18 points in 21 games
Average #1 C my @ss - xShoot4WarAmpsx
78 points in 64 game fake virus season. With 36 goals. Add in 18 more games and he’s at 45 goals 105 points
I think he would be generational on a good team. Or at least that would be his ceiling. But if we’re using very tight guidelines for generational as in 1 in every 25 years type talent then no he isn’t - SMS4016
we could loosen the guidelines and he still isn't generational dude. he's very good, but not close to generational level. but you were still throwing that around a few months ago, which is hilarious.
Location: “How many times is she gonna ask this f'n question?”, NT Joined: 12.09.2006
Apr 16 @ 4:05 PM ET
Agreed, Provy is good, but over rated by most flyers fans. Just far too many mistakes. - bradster
One of my biggest grips on Provorov is the uncanny inability to settle pucks down on the blueline during PPs. I can not understand why is continually trotted out on PP! over Ghost.
we could loosen the guidelines and he still isn't generational dude. he's very good, but not close to generational level. but you were still throwing that around a few months ago, which is hilarious. - Ftown19125
