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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Blowout Loss in DC,
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MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 14 @ 1:06 PM ET
Ok, what is your plan then? Oh I forgot, its have an off season and practice more, keep the same players and hope with more practice things get better. Oh and draft and develop.

This roster needs to be overhauled and this is not an overreaction of this season, its an opinion that comes from the culmination of several seasons of mediocrity and only 1 playoff series win! That is the reality whether you want to face it or not.

Now who is dreaming?

- jd250


You're overreacting. You're also not characterizing my "plan" accurately.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 14 @ 1:08 PM ET
No one is saying York has leap frogged anyone. I was actually thinking to make a real hockey trade Sanheim or Myers would most likely be part of it.
- jd250


How would Myers have any trade value. You claim he SUCKS with an S! He doesn't get it and won't ever get it.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 14 @ 1:08 PM ET
Again, we're not even in a hockey realm here. We're in a common sense realm. None of these players are even in the NHL yet you claim they have made more of an impact on the organization than the players Hextall drafted who are actually in the NHL? I really wonder what kind of logic or should I say lack of is involved here. It's ridiculous and hysterical.
- MJL

Some of these players are already playing in the AHL and making an impact of a successful Phantoms season so far. Others are not far behind them. From what I see, these players are moving much faster in their development than Hextall's picks. Now to be fair there can be reasons, like Covid cancelling junior hockey, or maybe Fletcher is more open to moving players up quicker, but whatever the reason, these players are showing good promise so far. You just don't want to admit that maybe Hextall was not as good as you thought he was!
Thors-Hammer
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Daytona Beach, FL
Joined: 08.12.2013

Apr 14 @ 1:15 PM ET
As of today the Flyers will have the 13th pick of the draft. How much lower will they drop and what possible players would they be looking at with that pick?
Pelle31Forever
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.20.2014

Apr 14 @ 1:15 PM ET
I've got to the point where I despise our "star" players. What's the point having "skill" and "talent " if you aren't going to work hard every night?

9-1, 8-3, 7-3 spanking at Tahoe, multiple 6-1 losses in a 56 game season. Ha get real.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Apr 14 @ 1:17 PM ET
I understand what your point was JD. I don't like to argue for the sake of arguing. Point was Hextalls drafts were over rated.
- bradster


I do too. I do not know enough about the players to say whether I agree or disagree, but it is clear he is comparing reasonably projected trajectory of CF drafted players to current trajectory of Hexy drafted players.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Apr 14 @ 1:18 PM ET
Hope? I actually don't know, but I figure if Fletcher is able to put good defenseman around York, it may be possible. At worst he plays in the 3rd pairing and a player like Sanheim moves into the top 4 if he can further improve.
- jd250

Leap frog
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Apr 14 @ 1:19 PM ET
I do too. I do not know enough about the players to say whether I agree or disagree, but it is clear he is comparing reasonably projected trajectory of CF drafted players to current trajectory of Hexy drafted players.
- PT21

I’d love to know the reasonable trajectories of the CF drafts
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 14 @ 1:20 PM ET
The overreaction is thinking that the Flyers young players aren't good players and won't be good players.

Yet, we see a list of Flyers prospects not in the NHL. They're all going to be really good and are making a bigger impact on the organization.

- MJL

No one is saying that the current crop of prospects are all going to be good, but clearly their development has been much faster than Hextall's prospects.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 14 @ 1:21 PM ET
I answered this already, there is a sucker born every minute!
- jd250


So you think a NHL GM can't see what you claim to see? I know he has size and is RH. I weigh 280 and I'm a right had shot. How much trade value do I have?

I have another question for you. If what you say about Myers is true, why are they going to protect him in the expansion draft?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Apr 14 @ 1:21 PM ET
No one is saying that the current crop of prospects are all going to be good, but clearly their development has been much faster than Hextall's prospects.
- jd250


Quantify how their development is faster?
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 14 @ 1:22 PM ET
So you think a NHL GM can't see what you claim to see? I know he has size and is RH. I weigh 280 and I'm a right had shot. How much trade value do I have?

I have another question for you. If what you say about Myers is true, why are they going to protect him in the expansion draft?

- MJL

Myers will be protected because the Flyers D suck so bad they don't have anyone better to protect!
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Apr 14 @ 1:25 PM ET
I’d love to know the reasonable trajectories of the CF drafts
- ClaudeFather


Gee, I dunno.

bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Apr 14 @ 1:27 PM ET
The overreaction is thinking that the Flyers young players aren't good players and won't be good players.

Yet, we see a list of Flyers prospects not in the NHL. They're all going to be really good and are making a bigger impact on the organization.

- MJL


Now you are twisting what i am saying. No one said the young players won't be good. I'm saying ..... I said, they have had more bad games than good games. And there is a good chance they wont turn out top 4 or top 6. Could be more detrimental to the team to sit and wait on a prospect...say Meyers for example, sit and wait for a mid 20's 4 year pro, to finally put it together, and waiting and waiting, and then what, if he doesn't progess. How long do you wait in your opinion?
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 14 @ 1:27 PM ET
Quantify how their development is faster?
- MJL

Ok, Foerster, Wisdom, and Millman are already playing for the AHL and in some cases are more than holding their own. York is starting some AHL games very soon after a successful college season. Attard and Brink are solid college players and I would think will be signing with the Flyers soon. So there is a lot to like here so far.
opeth_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Implication
Joined: 12.13.2011

Apr 14 @ 1:29 PM ET
So i saw a post made earlier that the "Meltdown of Hart is on par with Carson Wentz"

That is some "WIP , I'm from South Philly So I know everything" level hyperbole.

Which goalie hasn't had a season where they regressed early on in their career?

In his third season Carey Price struggled winning only 13 or 14 games.
Every successful goalie has a season or sometimes 2 where they hit a wall early on an move past it. Based n facts and reality achieving success as a goalie in the NHL isn't a linear success pattern so I'm not sure why we would expect Hart to move that way.

Is it disappointing , 100%
Is it unexpected , earth shattering or Wentz like , lulz no.




jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 14 @ 1:30 PM ET
Now you are twisting what i am saying. No one said the young players won't be good. I'm saying ..... I said, they have had more bad games than good games. And there is a good chance they wont turn out top 4 or top 6. Could be more detrimental to the team to sit and wait on a prospect...say Meyers for example, sit and wait for a mid 20's 4 year pro, to finally put it together, and waiting and waiting, and then what, if he doesn't progess. How long do you wait in your opinion?
- bradster

Exactly! The coaches and scouts have to evaluate and make a decision, you wait too long you could end up with nothing. Like I said, there are too many players between the age of 19-22 that are making significant impacts to their teams in this league, thus if a player is not showing it and you have a strong pipeline of players coming up, move on from that player while they may still have some upside and trade value.
DANCER
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.30.2019

Apr 14 @ 1:34 PM ET
Gotta hold on to Myers, Saneim, Provorov unless someone us gives a trade that knocks our socks off. Hamilton, Jones....not just a middling talent.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 14 @ 1:35 PM ET
I do too. I do not know enough about the players to say whether I agree or disagree, but it is clear he is comparing reasonably projected trajectory of CF drafted players to current trajectory of Hexy drafted players.
- PT21

Yes
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Apr 14 @ 1:35 PM ET
What worries me is that after agreeing that the past 7 years were a mistake, we seem to be heading into an exact repeat.

Couturier = Giroux of 2014 - good but not as good as people think, advantage Giroux
Hayes = Voracek of 2014 - same, advantage Voracek:
Bee, Tk, NP, OL = Schenn, Simmer, Couts - same, advantage 2014 group
Provorov, Myers, Sanheim etc = Streit, Coburn, Grossman, Schenn etc - same, advantage this year's group
Hart = Mason same, (advantage Hart)

Roughly speaking, two older 'stars' who are somewhat overrated, a bunch of irrational hope, the worth of the teams roughly the same, and a likely end-result of picking in the mid-rounds.

I confidently expect the 2020s to be the same as the 2010s. A few playoffs, a few trades, then another crash and burn.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Apr 14 @ 1:37 PM ET
So i saw a post made earlier that the "Meltdown of Hart is on par with Carson Wentz"

That is some "WIP , I'm from South Philly So I know everything" level hyperbole.

Which goalie hasn't had a season where they regressed early on in their career?

In his third season Carey Price struggled winning only 13 or 14 games.
Every successful goalie has a season or sometimes 2 where they hit a wall early on an move past it. Based n facts and reality achieving success as a goalie in the NHL isn't a linear success pattern so I'm not sure why we would expect Hart to move that way.

Is it disappointing , 100%
Is it unexpected , earth shattering or Wentz like , lulz no.

- opeth_pa


No, it is a historic meltdown. The Athletic provided details.

EDIT:

I could not find the article where I read the stats about how unusual Carter Hart's season has been by historic standards, so I looked up some of his stats versus Price's myself.

Price: season sv % first 3 years: 0.920, 0.905, 0.912.
Hart: season sv%: 0.917, 0.914, 0.872.

In Price's "rough" 2nd season, his sv % dropped 0.15
In Hart's rough 3rd season, his sv% dropped 0.42!

Hart's drop was about 3 times as bad as Price's drop.

I read somewhere this kind of drop was very unusual for someone who went on to be a star goalie, but I can't find the source.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Apr 14 @ 1:37 PM ET
Gotta hold on to Myers, Saneim, Provorov unless someone us gives a trade that knocks our socks off. Hamilton, Jones....not just a middling talent.
- DANCER



You hope now that the pressure should be less with no playoffs we see the players step up and raise their game. That will be the only way they will get close to fair value in trade.
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Apr 14 @ 1:39 PM ET
You hope now that the pressure should be less with no playoffs we see the players step up and raise their game. That will be the only way they will get close to fair value in trade.
- wcorvette


Thing is i dont even know what fair value is with these guys anymore. Whats provy worth, and whats Sandheim worth, or Oscar or TK? I think we value all these guys higher because we've seen their best, but others have seen more of their worst.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Apr 14 @ 1:41 PM ET
Thing is i dont even know what fair value is with these guys anymore. Whats provy worth, and whats Sandheim worth, or Oscar or TK? I think we value all these guys higher because we've seen their best, but others have seen more of their worst.
- bradster



GM's will know who they are, GM's are accustomed to players having a real bad year. The only good news with this poop show is other GM's can look at it and say how could any player be their best in that scenario...
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Apr 14 @ 1:49 PM ET
Other than York don't believe any have "star" potential. Some may be steady midrange productive NHLrs but that's the problem. With G being the exception, nobody on this team has been feared by the opposition for A very very long time.
- DANCER

Right, where is our version of Kucherov drafted in the 2nd round? Where is our version of Point drafted in the 3rd round? Right now the best we can show for all this drafting and developing is Provorov, TK and Farabee, is this enough? I think not!
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