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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Game 40 vs Stars
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BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 6 @ 8:36 PM ET
Nice how Adam walked that puck in instead of deferring to Kane since the lane was open
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 6 @ 8:41 PM ET
Nice how Adam walked that puck in instead of deferring to Kane since the lane was open
- BetweenTheDots

Why are you on a first name basis with Boqvist but not Kane?
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Apr 6 @ 8:43 PM ET
Theo also loved to outbid people in his drafts until they took that gray area away from him.

Did Beane make a lot of money for the As? I honestly don't know.

If I were an owner of a hockey team I would want a hockey opps department that has a TON of boots on the ground so what they see/read on paper matches what they see in PERSON. Ie....I am not 100% all against advanced analytics but more so....60-70% eye test. Respect the computer numbers but don't risk your job on them.

I mean what stat/philosphy that came from PECOTA is relevant in hockey? What is the equivalent of taking pitches, walks, working pitchers to get into bullpens and so on translates to hockey?

You stated more shots for but I just don't see how that works long term in hockey. Game is too fast, too many matchups you can dictate with line changes to completely change those outcomes.

To Beane's philosphy, he sacrificed defense as Hattenberg was astrocious, so if you built a hockey team that was way geared towards shots for than shots against are you willing to go cheap at goalie?

I just don't see it....sorry.

- SteveRain


It is very simple math. The team that has more shots for and less shots against usually wins. There are additional factors like goaltending, special teams, the best player being hung over that can create outliers but over 100 games the teams that fit that mold will win more games than not. I believe the expected goals for model got 57% of the games right in the 2016 season - which is pretty darn good for how dynamic the sport is.

If there are several 4th line centers available who all win the same amount of draws and score about the same amount of points something like comparing zone starts with expected goals against and their CORSI metrics can help you find the most value for your 1.5ish million dollars which is important with a hard cap.

The NHL is somewhat different from baseball in that there is a hard cap and star players are not typically unloaded for meaningful futures. The Hawks couldn't move Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith and Alex Debrincat to net what Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton brought back. Especially in terms of some can't miss players like Eloy (RIP) and Moncada.

With baseball you can load up with enough talent across your farm teams so if you throw enough crap on the wall something will stick. Can't really do that with hockey.

The only similar thing here is that both sports have math that can help find value outside of someone's personal bias and validate the eye test.

The Hawks get clocked in just about every stat you can measure. The stats say they are a bad team, the eye test shows they are a bad team and aside from a MVP level play from Kane, very good goaltending and a hot powerplay the only highlight of the season was the bounce back from Debrincat and some of the younger players individually showing some positives to build on.
Hawkytalk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Frankfort, IL
Joined: 06.26.2012

Apr 6 @ 8:46 PM ET
Again I am not giving up on Nylander....if he can be a poor man's Versteeg it's a win in my book.
- SteveRain


I'm dreaming bigger, a poor man's Patrick Sharp. Similar size, hands, speed, and offensive abilities, but not the Intensity. Hopefully he can learn from his time off and gain that
aspect. Remember he's 23 years old and Sharpie did not score 20 goals until he was 25, and then took off. There's hope.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Apr 6 @ 8:49 PM ET
Man Dach can reach some pucks a long way from his feet
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 6 @ 8:50 PM ET
Surviving. Doing good though but need a haircut. How about you?
- NamedSources


Doing well. I'm enjoying the season. I'm glad they admitted to and embraced the rebuild. I think it is going pretty well, too.

mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 6 @ 8:51 PM ET
Why are you on a first name basis with Boqvist but not Kane?
- paulr


Boqvist is FDIC insured. Kane is off the grid.
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Apr 6 @ 8:52 PM ET
Why are you on a first name basis with Boqvist but not Kane?
- paulr

My daughter is on a first name basis with Kane.

We were at a game in Nashville 5 years ago when she was 7, and Kane flipped her a puck. I think she told everyone in a Hawks' sweater that "Patrick" gave her that puck!
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 6 @ 8:56 PM ET
Doing well. I'm enjoying the season. I'm glad they admitted to and embraced the rebuild. I think it is going pretty well, too.
- mohel


I see you’ve swallowed the Kool aid.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 6 @ 8:58 PM ET
I see you’ve swallowed the Kool aid.
- paulr


Along with a lot of pizzas.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 6 @ 9:10 PM ET
Nice Adam taken down, no call
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 6 @ 9:24 PM ET
Nice play by Vinny
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 6 @ 9:25 PM ET
Kubs learning 5 hole is open on 2 on 1
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Apr 6 @ 9:35 PM ET
Amazing what defending the neutral zone and the blue line do for the overall defense.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 6 @ 9:42 PM ET
Airtight alright alright
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Apr 6 @ 9:45 PM ET
wiener move by Cogliano after Boqvist tossed the puck to end the period.
Fat_Tony_Amonte
Joined: 12.08.2011

Apr 6 @ 9:47 PM ET
Kubalik goes 5 hole on any shot on the ice that isn't a one-T.
Ztra
Joined: 06.21.2018

Apr 6 @ 9:56 PM ET
I like Hagel a lot. But people may not give Kubalik enough credit. Last year he played on the third line early in the season and on some nights it was our best line. This year he is playing with different line mates every night and on the 2nd PP unit and still producing and making his line mates look pretty good.

At some point I would like him to play a full year on one of the top two lines with actual top 6 line mates and on the first PP unit.

Wishful thinking top 6 next year. ADB, Kane, Kubalik, Dach, Reichel, Toews. I said “wishful”.

Next up maybe Suter, Nylander, Hagel,....
Hawkytalk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Frankfort, IL
Joined: 06.26.2012

Apr 6 @ 10:02 PM ET
wiener move by Cogliano after Boqvist tossed the puck to end the period.
- Chunk


And I also didn't like the hit on Patrick Kane by Jamie Benn. That's a BS hit on a superstar who's nowhere near his size. Real tough guy Benn !! Zadorov needs to get in his face this period. Too many cheap shots on Patrick Kane actually all Night.
GPHawksfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: AB
Joined: 01.26.2018

Apr 6 @ 10:05 PM ET
Cue bigfly46 and hawkytalk
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Apr 6 @ 10:05 PM ET
dumbs pass by ADB.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Apr 6 @ 10:06 PM ET
This team just makes it so easy for the opponent to stay in the game
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Apr 6 @ 10:09 PM ET
This team just makes it so easy for the opponent to stay in the game
- BetweenTheDots


No lead is safe. They are hideous.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Apr 6 @ 10:09 PM ET
And I also didn't like the hit on Patrick Kane by Jamie Benn. That's a BS hit on a superstar who's nowhere near his size. Real tough guy Benn !! Zadorov needs to get in his face this period. Too many cheap shots on Patrick Kane actually all Night.
- Hawkytalk


Why? He's a hockey player with the puck on his stick. Fair game. Didn't hit him in the head and didn't leave his feet. Why in the heck, should they care who they are hitting?
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Apr 6 @ 10:11 PM ET
This team just makes it so easy for the opponent to stay in the game
- BetweenTheDots

Yeah I hate when young rebuilding clubs don’t do everything perfectly.
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