At this point would you rather Chuck sell or buy??
- Flyers_1488

If there is a player available with term that would be a significant improvement over what the Flyers have currently on their roster or in their system, I say make the trade. Otherwise stand pat.

I honestly thought the Flyers were the better team in this one. They really forechecked well and took advantage of the Bruins poor defenseman, which is exactly how you need to play against the Bruins. However this game means nothing unless they get a regulation win tonight. If the Flyers are able to do so, it changes the entire narrative of the Flyers-Bruins matchup. So far, 3 out of the 6 games have gone to OT which gives credence to the idea that the Flyers are closer to the Bruins than we may give them credit for. So a win in regulation should give the Flyers loads of confidence and keeps them in the hunt. However a loss pretty much sinks their season, so every game right now is a playoff game.
- jd250

It was an evenly played game. The Bergeron line got the better of the Couturier line.

I honestly thought the Flyers were the better team in this one. They really forechecked well and took advantage of the Bruins poor defenseman, which is exactly how you need to play against the Bruins. However this game means nothing unless they get a regulation win tonight. If the Flyers are able to do so, it changes the entire narrative of the Flyers-Bruins matchup. So far, 3 out of the 6 games have gone to OT which gives credence to the idea that the Flyers are closer to the Bruins than we may give them credit for. So a win in regulation should give the Flyers loads of confidence and keeps them in the hunt. However a loss pretty much sinks their season, so every game right now is a playoff game.
- jd250

Yes, I thought the Flyers played one of their better games last night. Aggressive, hitting whenever they got a chance and that's really how you break them down. Solid tending and did what they needed to do. Tonight is certainly a must win, and in reg is obviously preferable, but get the win and more importantly keep up that type of effort on a consistent basis. I didn't realize tuuka was also down as well as halak… Not that Vladar played poorly, but this changes things a bit IMO. The Bruins may really struggle down the stretch here. let's not forget that the Rangers are right there with us too.

I may be in the minority, but I am hoping they make a push and get into the dance. The Flyers simply don't have a lot of players to sell, and it's a buyers market, so the best case scenario is that they right the ship after a tough feb and march, get into the dance as a result of the young players starting to improve. Changes can be made in the offseason, but I want to see Hart and the young core improve, and build some confidence by getting more playoff experience, even though they are not a contender.

It was an evenly played game. The Bergeron line got the better of the Couturier line.
- MJL

I don't think it was that even. Jake-G-TK were clearly the Flyers best line last night. I agree with you that the Bergeron line got he better of the Couts line, but that was because of JVR. His defense was awful last night and he was allowing a lot of dangerous shots. If I were coach, I would have made an adjustment there and moved Laughton up to replace JVR.

Yes, I thought the Flyers played one of their better games last night. Aggressive, hitting whenever they got a chance and that's really how you break them down. Solid tending and did what they needed to do. Tonight is certainly a must win, and in reg is obviously preferable, but get the win and more importantly keep up that type of effort on a consistent basis. I didn't realize tuuka was also down as well as halak… Not that Vladar played poorly, but this changes things a bit IMO. The Bruins may really struggle down the stretch here. let's not forget that the Rangers are right there with us too.

I may be in the minority, but I am hoping they make a push and get into the dance. The Flyers simply don't have a lot of players to sell, and it's a buyers market, so the best case scenario is that they right the ship after a tough feb and march, get into the dance as a result of the young players starting to improve. Changes can be made in the offseason, but I want to see Hart and the young core improve, and build some confidence by getting more playoff experience, even though they are not a contender.
- Hextall271

That is one thing I did notice last night, just about every Flyer was taking the body and hitting the Bruins last night. This is not something I have seen pretty much all season so far. Again this how you have to play the Bruins, you need to rub them out any time you get a chance to do it. Also I loved Patrick getting under Marchand's skin there at the end. I would love Morin to plant him through the boards on his very first shift tonight, to set the tone right away!

As for Tuukka, the team is really turning on him. This is the 4th year in a row that there is something stopping him from playing at all or playing well, and the fans, teammates, media and team executives have noticed it and are talking about it. There are quite a few people that didn't believe his story last year in the bubble where he bowed out of the playoffs, and wondered if the Bruins should have let him back at all. With Halak down also, this is the time other teams in the division have to take advantage of the situation. The Bruins have two very young goalies and poor defense, its now or never!

I don't think it was that even. Jake-G-TK were clearly the Flyers best line last night. I agree with you that the Bergeron line got he better of the Couts line, but that was because of JVR. His defense was awful last night and he was allowing a lot of dangerous shots. If I were coach, I would have made an adjustment there and moved Laughton up to replace JVR.
- jd250

I'll tell you, the sequence surrounding Sanheim's goal was fun. Bergy blows a tire and he walks around him and scores. Right after, the rat has a meltdown when there was no way he was going to have an impact on that play. Stop whining. How many egregious oversights on calls did the refs make that didn't go our way that game? 1 led to their first goal.

I'll tell you, the sequence surrounding Sanheim's goal was fun. Bergy blows a tire and he walks around him and scores. Right after, the rat has a meltdown when there was no way he was going to have an impact on that play. Stop whining. How many egregious oversights on calls did the refs make that didn't go our way that game? 1 led to their first goal.
- Hextall271

There were a lot of missed calls in the 3rd period for sure. I have seen the replay on that first Bruins goal and, sorry, I don't think that was a penalty. I think Jake needed to be much stronger on his skates there. However I was not happy with how Sanheim defended on that goal. Instead of turning sideways and dropping on 1 knee, which I was never coached to do BTW, he should have squared himself to the shooter and got his stick out in front of him to try to deflect that shot. It turned out the Bruin player had all day to walk in, line up the shot and hit the target. Sanheim should have pressured there and took away his time.

But this is the problem with Sanhiem all season. On the Bruins 2nd goal on the PP, Sanhiem off the draw is chasing a player past the top of the circle which is pure pee wee hockey! He thus left the slot area wide open and was not able to recover in time to stop Bergeron from an easy deflection goal. I don't understand why AV keeps putting Myers and Sanhien on the PK, I really don't.

I don't think it was that even. Jake-G-TK were clearly the Flyers best line last night. I agree with you that the Bergeron line got he better of the Couts line, but that was because of JVR. His defense was awful last night and he was allowing a lot of dangerous shots. If I were coach, I would have made an adjustment there and moved Laughton up to replace JVR.
- jd250

Shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, HD scoring chances were all pretty much even.

There were a lot of missed calls in the 3rd period for sure. I have seen the replay on that first Bruins goal and, sorry, I don't think that was a penalty. I think Jake needed to be much stronger on his skates there. However I was not happy with how Sanheim defended on that goal. Instead of turning sideways and dropping on 1 knee, which I was never coached to do BTW, he should have squared himself to the shooter and got his stick out in front of him to try to deflect that shot. It turned out the Bruin player had all day to walk in, line up the shot and hit the target. Sanheim should have pressured there and took away his time.

But this is the problem with Sanhiem all season. On the Bruins 2nd goal on the PP, Sanhiem off the draw is chasing a player past the top of the circle which is pure pee wee hockey! He thus left the slot area wide open and was not able to recover in time to stop Bergeron from an easy deflection goal. I don't understand why AV keeps putting Myers and Sanhien on the PK, I really don't.
- jd250

It was a 2 on 1 down at the net. Sanheim has to play in between and try and take away the pass option. If he did what you wanted him to do, it's a pass over for an open net.
Sanheim did drift too high unnecessarily on the PP goal. The real issue there is that he drifted back and stopped moving his feet to get back to Bergeron.

At this point I’d only sell / move guys if it’s an offer too good to pass up. Or I’d do a trade that can help this year and moving forward. The reality is not much will probably happen (this season) due to the flat cap.

We asked Brent Flahr on Prospect Pipeline about this year's draft. He doesn't share your optimism about its depth. (The Draft prep segment is near the end):

https://podcasts.apple.co...365168499?i=1000514856908
- bmeltzer

Bill, talking about prospects, Rubtsov completed another unimpressive season in the KHL, 11P in 46GP, a month ago. Since the Flyers haven’t recalled him to the Phantoms, I think he has probably already played his last game for the Flyers organization. Do you agree?

While in theory it would be better to miss the playoffs (with this roster) and get a higher pick, this team still has a ton of young players that could use the experience of another playoff. It's not something tangible, but as an old guy myself, experience means a lot.

Bill, talking about prospects, Rubtsov completed another unimpressive season in the KHL, 11P in 46GP, a month ago. Since the Flyers haven’t recalled him to the Phantoms, I think he has probably already played his last game for the Flyers organization. Do you agree?
- Djapana

KHL is a low scoring league, and most young players don't get a lot of icetime. Take those totals w a grain of salt.

It was a 2 on 1 down at the net. Sanheim has to play in between and try and take away the pass option. If he did what you wanted him to do, it's a pass over for an open net.
Sanheim did drift too high unnecessarily on the PP goal. The real issue there is that he drifted back and stopped moving his feet to get back to Bergeron.
- MJL

I don't agree, because this was not your typical 2 on 1. Since the other Bruin forward was so close to Elliott down low, Elliott would have been able to break up a pass attempt, or be able to smother any shot attempt if the pass got through. Also there was a chance that another Flyers player would have been able to get to the Bruins forward. I believe thus Sanheim should have challenged that shooter and I bet you that is what he will hear this morning from his coaches. On the second goal I agree that he stopped moving his feet, but he should have not allowed himself to leave his zone of responsibility. This to me is the biggest issue with the Flyers defense this year, they leave their zone of primary responsibility and create gaps all over the place. They need more discipline.

I don't agree, because this was not your typical 2 on 1. Since the other Bruin forward was so close to Elliott down low, Elliott would have been able to break up a pass attempt, or be able to smother any shot attempt if the pass got through. Also there was a chance that another Flyers player would have been able to get to the Bruins forward. I believe thus Sanheim should have challenged that shooter and I bet you that is what he will hear this morning from his coaches. On the second goal I agree that he stopped moving his feet, but he should have not allowed himself to leave his zone of responsibility. This to me is the biggest issue with the Flyers defense this year, they leave their zone of primary responsibility and create gaps all over the place. They need more discipline.
- jd250

Like Elliott broke up the pass across to Zbanajad that went right in front of him in a previous game? You're making an assumption that a defenseman cannot make. A defenseman also cannot bank on a goalie making a save on a cross ice pass. I think what he coaches would've liked to have seen was the refs make a call on an obvious penalty.


The zone Sanheim was in is his are of responsibility. The issue is that there was no reason to go out to cut off a player that didn't have the puck. You keep making these comments without knowing what the PK rotation is. Every team pretty much plays the same way on the PK. Defenseman have responsibilities out at the circle with a wing player on a rotation.

1) This year's draft is considered below average one both in top-end projections and overall depth. Maybe there will be some surprises, who knows?

2) Picking at the top end of the draft is no guarantee of anything. What has Edmonton won so far, despite McDavid being everything he was hyped to be, as well as Draisaitl? What did they win during the years when Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, etc. were expected to become the players to lead them into a new era. How well off are the Sabres with three top-two and three additional top-10 picks in their lineup? How dominant how Lafreniere and Kakko been so far for the Rangers? How far has drafting Hischier and Hughes first overall and Zacha 6th overall gotten New Jersey? What big impact has Nolan Patrick made for the Flyers?

3) Look at the big 3 in Boston: Bergeron, who wasn't in THN Top 50 his draft year, went
45th overall. Marchand was a 3rd rounder (65th overall) his draft year. Pastrnak was a 1st rounder but 25th overall. Also, McAvoy was a mid 1st rounder. Krejci was a late 2nd rounder.

Don't put all your eggs in that magical lottery ball with a franchise-changing superstar who turns things around all by himself while still on his ELC. It took Eric Lindros until his 3rd season for the Flyers to get to the playoffs. The Penguins were still a last place team Crosby's rookie year. It took time for Ovechkin's Caps to pull themselves up. Yet all these players made immediate and major impacts.

If you do draft a superstar, you still have to put the right pieces around him. Being a perpetual lottery team isn't always a big springboard within two. three, five, sometimes even 10 or more years. Build a TEAM with a mix of youth and vets, finesse and power, keep the GAA in the top half or higher and score at least enough to support it. And hopefully get a little lucky with mid-to-late 1st rounders and a few non-first rounders.


- bmeltzer

I have seen the following quote in different forms... "The truth is that very few players taken in the NHL draft this weekend will ever play in the NHL. In order to get an accurate read of how many drafted players played at least 200 games in the NHL, a study by proicehockey.about.com looked at the drafts between 1990 and 1999. Of the 2,600 hundred players drafted just 494 or 19% played in at least 200 contests. 63% of first round picks played but less than 25% of second round picks survived and only 12% of third rounder selections. Former NHL general manager Doug MacLean said his math over the last decade showed that only 15% of second round picks ever become impact players."

Purely looking at the "statistics", whether the pick was successful or not... aka, whether they become a true NHL'er. The first round picks are heavily evaluated, and your chances of a NHL'er are good. After that it's a crap-shoot. A good group of scouts, getting lucky on a guy that wasn't heavily evaluated, etc. can help. But, to bank on a impact player beyond the first or second round is foolish.

1) This year's draft is considered below average one both in top-end projections and overall depth. Maybe there will be some surprises, who knows?

2) Picking at the top end of the draft is no guarantee of anything. What has Edmonton won so far, despite McDavid being everything he was hyped to be, as well as Draisaitl? What did they win during the years when Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, etc. were expected to become the players to lead them into a new era. How well off are the Sabres with three top-two and three additional top-10 picks in their lineup? How dominant how Lafreniere and Kakko been so far for the Rangers? How far has drafting Hischier and Hughes first overall and Zacha 6th overall gotten New Jersey? What big impact has Nolan Patrick made for the Flyers?

3) Look at the big 3 in Boston: Bergeron, who wasn't in THN Top 50 his draft year, went
45th overall. Marchand was a 3rd rounder (65th overall) his draft year. Pastrnak was a 1st rounder but 25th overall. Also, McAvoy was a mid 1st rounder. Krejci was a late 2nd rounder.

Don't put all your eggs in that magical lottery ball with a franchise-changing superstar who turns things around all by himself while still on his ELC. It took Eric Lindros until his 3rd season for the Flyers to get to the playoffs. The Penguins were still a last place team Crosby's rookie year. It took time for Ovechkin's Caps to pull themselves up. Yet all these players made immediate and major impacts.

If you do draft a superstar, you still have to put the right pieces around him. Being a perpetual lottery team isn't always a big springboard within two. three, five, sometimes even 10 or more years. Build a TEAM with a mix of youth and vets, finesse and power, keep the GAA in the top half or higher and score at least enough to support it. And hopefully get a little lucky with mid-to-late 1st rounders and a few non-first rounders.


- bmeltzer

Bill,

Thanks for your post but there is a little problem with your logic in parts 2 and 3. The same problem that people make here constantly.

You are looking at failures instead of successes and not looking at percentages or odds. If you had two treatments for a disease, and had two treatments available:

A: Cure rate 10%
B: Cure rate: 2%

would it be a valid strategy to follow path B because A gives no guarantee of success? Of course not. Because while both can fail, and are likely to fail, one strategy has 5 times the likelihood of success of the other.

In picking cases like Edmonton and so on, you are focusing on the failures of strategy A. You have to look at rates. In the last 15 years, only 2 teams have won the cup without a key player picked in the top 5 (BOS and DET).

As for this year's draft being thin/under-scouted, that reduces the incentive to pick high, as it becomes more random. But the point in general stands, and in particular, lets pick high again next year.

ah the maple leafs strategy which hasn't worked in how long? until they tanked and got mathews
- 2Real

Here is an example of this kind of logic:

My favorite restaurant in Philadelphia has as its chef a lady whose recently widowed mother was diagnosed with breast cancer. This was about 15 years ago.

Wracked with grief, and ready to die, she refused treatment. She was in her early 70s The cancer was about middle stage (stage II+). Not just no chemo - no scans to see progress, nothing at all except ignoring the disease.

15 years later, she is still alive and in good health. Her cancer turned out to have the same progress rate of prostrate cancer instead of breast cancer. Further, she avoided the pain of chemo+radiation.

Based n this, should I conclude that it is rational to refuse treatment for Stage II breast cancer as it may not be needed?

Executives all want the this kid is clear as day going to be a stud. And based on numerous anonymous exec comments and reports lately I feel like at times they watch less hockey than we do. Like the one that called Sean Couturier and Ron Francis in the same sentence 2nd line centers and suggested trading him for Dumba and a 1st was good value for both teams. I by no means am calling this a deep draft but I think there's a ton of raw ability upside picks. Its a draft where I would go after several "risky" picks and see what happens especially with the lack of league play and scouting. And a draft where a volume of mid round picks could actually turn into something.
- Tfaehner

The tradeoffs for such an under-scouted and random draft are clear. Because of higher variability, this is the kind of draft where you trade back and pick twice in the top 15 than once in the top 7, for example.

You don't however believe that picking top 20 is just as good as picking top 10.

Like Elliott broke up the pass across to Zbanajad that went right in front of him in a previous game? You're making an assumption that a defenseman cannot make. A defenseman also cannot bank on a goalie making a save on a cross ice pass. I think what he coaches would've liked to have seen was the refs make a call on an obvious penalty.


The zone Sanheim was in is his are of responsibility. The issue is that there was no reason to go out to cut off a player that didn't have the puck. You keep making these comments without knowing what the PK rotation is. Every team pretty much plays the same way on the PK. Defenseman have responsibilities out at the circle with a wing player on a rotation.
- MJL

Every team tell their defenseman to cover a player at the top of the circle when killing a penalty?

Bill,

Thanks for your post but there is a little problem with your logic in parts 2 and 3. The same problem that people make here constantly.

You are looking at failures instead of successes and not looking at percentages or odds. If you had two treatments for a disease, and had two treatments available:

A: Cure rate 10%
B: Cure rate: 2%

would it be a valid strategy to follow path B because A gives no guarantee of success? Of course not. Because while both can fail, and are likely to fail, one strategy has 5 times the likelihood of success of the other.

In picking cases like Edmonton and so on, you are focusing on the failures of strategy A. You have to look at rates. In the last 15 years, only 2 teams have won the cup without a key player picked in the top 5 (BOS and DET).

As for this year's draft being thin/under-scouted, that reduces the incentive to pick high, as it becomes more random. But the point in general stands, and in particular, lets pick high again next year.
- PT21

More of the same flawed logic from you. Along with another poor analogy. Lets look at rates. How many teams in the last 15 years with a key player picked in the top 5 didn't win a cup? How many failed seasons? This is what you don't get as you focus on the top 5 player as the key when it is not. The TEAM is the key.

Every team tell their defenseman to cover a player at the top of the circle when killing a penalty?
- jd250

Pretty much every team uses the same PK set up and player rotations. It is routine for a defenseman to cover a wing player at the circles. See it pretty much every game.

And still haven't reached the Stanley Cup Final since 1966-67.
- bmeltzer

they're definitely trending in the right direction since they started tanking

More of the same flawed logic from you. Along with another poor analogy. Lets look at rates. How many teams in the last 15 years with a key player picked in the top 5 didn't win a cup? How many failed seasons? This is what you don't get as you focus on the top 5 player as the key when it is not. The TEAM is the key.
- MJL

TEAM is important, no doubt about it. But a TEAM without star power will only get you so far, and it rarely if ever wins a cup by itself. Edmonton doesn't win because they have failed to build a team around McDavid and Draisaitl. On the flip side, the Capitals don't win the cup a few years ago without Ovechkin, no matter how many "good" team players they have. So both ingredients are needed. Its true that the Bruins top line for example were not top 5 picks, but they all developed into elite offensive players in the league. Your best players have to be legitimate top players in the league if you want a realistic shot at a cup. This is the problem with the Flyers right now, they have depth but no real top end talent, at least not yet. We'll see how their current group of young players develop. So the answer to me, which I didn't see anything in Bill's post that stated otherwise, is you need top end talent surrounded by a solid and deep team.

Pretty much every team uses the same PK set up and player rotations. It is routine for a defenseman to cover a wing player at the circles. See it pretty much every game.
- MJL

I get that and agree with you on that point. But no team would coach a defenseman to guard an opposing player all the way to the top of circle or higher. This is not the first time I have seen Sanhiem do this BTW, he and Myers routinely leave their zones of responsibility, which for defenseman should never get above the dots even on rotations within a diamond, and drift way too high leaving the slot uncovered.