Seeing as he wanted the Sabres to build a legit team and they went out and iced an all time terrible team it won’t shock me when he asks for a trade.

Don’t know if we have the assets to pull it off honestly though. Buffalo is going to want controllable players and Coots with limited time left on his deal is not that.
- hereticpride

He can ask for a trade. That doesn't mean he is available.

Farabee
Provy
Hart

I’m 50/50 on Coots. You can keep him to build around. Lord knows you always need center depth. At the same time if the offer is just too good to pass up I think you have to do the deal. Flyers have a lot of holes to fill.

Everyone else fair game for fair, sensible trades.
- hereticpride

You have to have veterans on a team. Couturier is a player that should age well. The Flyers have to figure out the cap moving forward. The next 3 years are going to be tricky.

You have to have veterans on a team. Couturier is a player that should age well. The Flyers have to figure out the cap moving forward. The next 3 years are going to be tricky.
- MJL

How is couturier a player who will age well considering all the hard minutes he plays plus all the miles on his body.

How is couturier a player who will age well considering all the hard minutes he plays plus all the miles on his body.
- login

There are countless players that play hard minutes and play into there late 30’s.

There are countless players that play hard minutes and play into there late 30’s.
- mickel25

Doesn’t mean they age well. Who are these countless players who are similar to him.

I am sure. I am willing to pay for #1 centers. Not all #1 centers are great leaders. Coots offers leadership as part of his total package. It’s a nice perk. In general I feel like top players are looked at to lead. Whether they should be or not.
- mickel25

Ok wonderful.

Here is my 4th question, which uses some some comparables to try and estimate Couturier points over a season in the last 4 years of his contract, age 34-38. I need to provide some background.

I looked at defensive centers, who played through that age, and were very good in both ends of the ice in their career. As you know, the Selke prototype has changed quite a bit in the past 20 years, for we have gone from the Draper/Madden 3C checking center to the Kopitar/Coots 1C paradigm. But I controlled for the role, as explained below for my purposes.

I looked at Datsyuk, Brindamour, Thornton, Draper, Madden, Henrik Sedin, and Jason Arnott. I excluded Bergeron because he is only 35.

For each of them, their point production over ages 34-38 took about a 25% or more hit on average from their peak production (anytime before). This was not necessarily a ppg dip alone , but also factors in games missed due to injury, and remember Couturier has already had lots of injuries.

Couturier's peak has been about 76 points a season. Lets be generous and make him a ppg player at his peak.


I therefore propose that we estimate Couturier will produce about 63 points a season ages 34-38 (2nd half of 8 year contract). Are you comfortable with that estimate and if not give me your best guess.

I’d love to hit Gus with a $14 domestic beer.
- hereticpride

Ha ha.

Farabee
Provy
Hart

I’m 50/50 on Coots. You can keep him to build around. Lord knows you always need center depth. At the same time if the offer is just too good to pass up I think you have to do the deal. Flyers have a lot of holes to fill.

Everyone else fair game for fair, sensible trades.
- hereticpride

I’m my opinion, if you have to blow it up, you only trade youth for youth. I’m fine with moving on from Voracek, van Riemsdyk, I haven’t like the Hayes signing from day one. I was never big on bringing back Elliott, certainly not over Cam Talbot (thanks for wasting a trip). When it comes to the youth, I’m keeping them all unless we’re filling them for what we think is an upgrade. I still have faith in Ivan Provorov, Travis Konency, Travis Sanheim, Carter Hart, Nolan Patrick, Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost but a lot more is gonna have to be shown by everyone of these players.

He is not a get in your face guy. He plays hockey the right way. He plays through torn knee ligaments in the playoffs. He plays against the other teams best players and regularly comes out on top.

If everyone on the Flyers played like Couturier we would not be having this discussion.
- mickel25

Amazing character guy. Uncomplainingly stayed with his 3C role for years and years. That probably significantly affected his career earnings. Now he carries his line every game every shift wherever he plays.

Did you see him on his back exulting after we scored the tying goal against Sabres game before? He cares that much.

I’m my opinion, if you have to blow it up, you only trade youth for youth. I’m fine with moving on from Voracek, van Riemsdyk, I haven’t like the Hayes signing from day one.
- SuperSchennBros

You are kidding! You never said a word.

Ok wonderful.

Here is my 4th question, which uses some some comparables to try and estimate Couturier points over a season in the last 4 years of his contract, age 34-38. I need to provide some background.

I looked at defensive centers, who played through that age, and were very good in both ends of the ice in their career. As you know, the Selke prototype has changed quite a bit in the past 20 years, for we have gone from the Draper/Madden 3C checking center to the Kopitar/Coots 1C paradigm. But I controlled for the role, as explained below for my purposes.

I looked at Datsyuk, Brindamour, Thornton, Draper, Madden, Henrik Sedin, and Jason Arnott. I excluded Bergeron because he is only 35.

For each of them, their point production over ages 34-38 took about a 25% or more hit on average from their peak production (anytime before). This was not necessarily a ppg dip alone , but also factors in games missed due to injury, and remember Couturier has already had lots of injuries.

Couturier's peak has been about 76 points a season. Lets be generous and make him a ppg player at his peak.


I therefore propose that we estimate Couturier will produce about 63 points a season ages 34-38 (2nd half of 8 year contract). Are you comfortable with that estimate and if not give me your best guess.
- PT21

No doubt his production will go down at some point. So let’s say he is a PPG player or continues to score 30 goals until 34. This is also assuming he is a Selke level center.

If he has a 10-25% decrease in production from 34-38 but maintains his defensive prowess I am fine with it. I really am.

Of course you will not get 8 peak years out of Couturier. I think that is what you are getting at. I am fine with his non peak years towards the end of the contract. This assumes the Flyers continue to draft and develop well. If they don’t it doesn’t matter the term of Couturiers next contract. They will not win.

I will take 8 chances at winning with Couturier against moving him for a bunch hopefully.

Again Couturier is a bonafide #1 center. I believe you keep that type of player.

Doesn’t mean they age well. Who are these countless players who are similar to him.
- login

I believe people often make a particular mistake. They look at a player at that age and see what his point production is. Then they say, oh he is still a very good player, which is true in and of itself.

What they don't see is the drop off relative to that player's production in the past. Jumbo Joe scored 273 points aged 34-28, which averages to a solid 68 points a season.But Jumbo Joe has 6 seasons where he scored over 86 or more points and 2 in the 100s. 68 points is a big drop-off relative to that.

You are kidding! You never said a word.
- PT21

you ever eat a ham salad sandwich

couturier is a 2nd line center on a championship team change my mind

No doubt his production will go down at some point. So let’s say he is a PPG player or continues to score 30 goals until 34. This is also assuming he is a Selke level center.

If he has a 10-25% decrease in production from 34-38 but maintains his defensive prowess I am fine with it. I really am.

Of course you will not get 8 peak years out of Couturier. I think that is what you are getting at. I am fine with his non peak years towards the end of the contract. This assumes the Flyers continue to draft and develop well. If they don’t it doesn’t matter the term of Couturiers next contract. They will not win.

I will take 8 chances at winning with Couturier against moving him for a bunch hopefully.

Again Couturier is a bonafide #1 center. I believe you keep that type of player.
- mickel25

I am looking at everything.

You did not directly answer that question. So, I will take it you are ok with a 25% drop off, which would mean he would be about a 63 point player. I personally think that's optimistic, but that is fine.

5th and Last question before I wish all good night.

If Couturier is not resigned, and we go with the same team minus any vet we can get rid off, resign Giroux (going with Giroux+Hayes down the middle), and hire a vet serviceable D man opposite Provy (Nisky level, 3-4 year deal), where do you think we draft next 4 years? (average/ ballpark guesstimate).

you ever eat a ham salad sandwich
- penguininnevada

Not in the near past. We get better food in Philly than a (frank)ing ham salad sandwich.

Ok wonderful.


- PT21

Such condescension.

I therefore propose that we estimate Couturier will produce about 63 points a season ages 34-38 (2nd half of 8 year contract). Are you comfortable with that estimate and if not give me your best guess.
- PT21

That would be fantastic. That's excellent production for a 34-38 year old declining player.
When do we get to the part where you show us why it's illogical to re-sign Couturier.?

Probably 8 years $8+ per
- mickel25

I wouldn’t do more than 4 yrs with Couts. 8 would be way too long.

I believe people often make a particular mistake. They look at a player at that age and see what his point production is. Then they say, oh he is still a very good player, which is true in and of itself.

What they don't see is the drop off relative to that player's production in the past. Jumbo Joe scored 273 points aged 34-28, which averages to a solid 68 points a season.But Jumbo Joe has 6 seasons where he scored over 86 or more points and 2 in the 100s. 68 points is a big drop-off relative to that.
- PT21

That's really not a smart way of looking at it. It is expected that a players production will decrease as he gets older and past his prime. 68 points is a real solid point total. That would put you in about the top 60 players in scoring in the league. If we look back to the last full season, that would put you equal with players like Tarasenko, Connor, Barzal and Pettersson. That people don't see that, is really a bad assumption on your part. Just another example of how you insult people's intelligence. As if they don't know that a players production declines as they get older.

I am looking at everything.

You did not directly answer that question. So, I will take it you are ok with a 25% drop off, which would mean he would be about a 63 point player. I personally think that's optimistic, but that is fine.

5th and Last question before I wish all good night.

If Couturier is not resigned, and we go with the same team minus any vet we can get rid off, resign Giroux (going with Giroux+Hayes down the middle), and hire a vet serviceable D man opposite Provy (Nisky level, 3-4 year deal), where do you think we draft next 4 years? (average/ ballpark guesstimate).
- PT21

That's not a question anyone can reasonably answer. It would be a guess out of thin air. If you say that you can, you're full of it. Perfect example is look at this year. Who would've guessed what has happened to the Flyers this year.

I am looking at everything.

You did not directly answer that question. So, I will take it you are ok with a 25% drop off, which would mean he would be about a 63 point player. I personally think that's optimistic, but that is fine.

5th and Last question before I wish all good night.

If Couturier is not resigned, and we go with the same team minus any vet we can get rid off, resign Giroux (going with Giroux+Hayes down the middle), and hire a vet serviceable D man opposite Provy (Nisky level, 3-4 year deal), where do you think we draft next 4 years? (average/ ballpark guesstimate).
- PT21

Not resigning or trading and getting assets for Couturier? If he leaves for nothing that would be catastrophically bad to the future of the Flyers. If they think there is a chance he does not sign they have to trade him.

So if he leaves for nothing the Flyers would be bad. Maybe top 5 pick bad for most of those 4 years. Please keep in mind that they just updated the lottery rules. So the odds are against getting multiple number 1-3 picks. Of course Carter Hart could recover from his malaise and carry an under talented team to a middling record. The Flyers should move him too then right?

If Couturier wants to sign an extension next season I would do it. If he does not sign an extension they have to trade him. It’s pretty simple.

Coots, Provy and Hart are the long term future of this team. They go as those players go.

How is couturier a player who will age well considering all the hard minutes he plays plus all the miles on his body.
- login

Bergeron has

Bergeron has
- wcorvette

aids?

aids?
- penguininnevada

Is this what Thursday almost late night is?

aids?
- penguininnevada