Not hard for me to understand either point.
- jd250

Lot of people here are hostage to the idea that there is more luck to the process than there is. You do need luck but the path is not quite so inchoate.

There is another team that is very similar to us. That is the Habs.

1. They have picked thrice in the top 5 in the past 15 years. Almost like our two. And the rest are mostly middle of the round, like us.

2. Like us, they have failed to land a superstar forward or D in their high picks. One was a moderate disappointment: Galchenyuk, similar to JVR for us.

3. Similarly, KK was picked two years later but is too young. His impact is similar to Patrick for us.

They have had very similar playoff success over the past 8 odd years too: a few misses, a few first round exits, and a couple of 2nd round exits.

I believe their long term prognosis is probably pretty similar to us. I hear a lot about Romanov but don't know much about him. Suzuki is underachieving this year. KK is still raw. Weber is past his prime. They too have a bunch of good but not great players.

Bunnaman and Twarynski recalled. Gostisbehere to taxi squad.

An infusion of bums in the lineup tonight! 🤡
- PLindbergh31

AV is going to roll 13 F and 5 D tonight. Buffalo will not know what hit them!

i thought AV said yesterday that if he was available Ghost would be in the lineup?
- Dkos

He lied

He lied
- corduroy

lol

He lied
- corduroy

I'm suggesting maybe it wasn't his decision

I'm suggesting maybe it wasn't his decision
- Dkos

I get that, I was trying to make a funny. He is on record of contradicting himself in Jordan Hall's article on csnphilly:

"If Shayne clears waivers, then he goes on the taxi squad and we'll have more flexibility as far as the 23-man roster," Flyers head coach Alain Vigneault said Tuesday. "He can still be on the 23-man roster and play. It was just a matter of having a little bit more flexibility."

The Flyers don't have any superstars that I can see but I don't think ROR was considered an MVP before the cup run, I don't think Binnington was consider a top 3 goalie, they did not have a super star. Tell me if you know what these numbers are related to 45, 71, 11, 72

GOING FORWARD HOPE HAS TO BE PART OF THE EQUATION. Add in these are real players with a real history and I question it is just hope. You ask what is the most likely way to get a superstar? Sure, you can plan, maybe tank and get top picks. Then you need HOPE that a top 5 pick is a Kane, not just a JVR, Hope when you do tank and win the lottery the draft has a Crosby and not Alexander Daigle. Is drafting a good way to a superstar, as good as any. Can you still trade for a really good player, sure. I don't think either is easy, so you leave both options open. The Flyers constant drafting while lower in the 1st round and beyond still built a stock pile of assets, one where they can trade some pieces and still have some pieces to support a superstar if they find one. Assets you can trade to move up the draft to get the players you want. Is that more likely than winning the lottery where there is a generational talent? It's a false task to say you need to draft a super star, its a false task to say you need to trade for one, you need to keep your options open and make the best decision at the time. All the planning in the world, all the data in the world doesn't compare to real decisions, decisions that have to be made in the moment with the best available data.

Superstars are not Kopitar, Dougherty, ROR , Binnington quick even Bergeron, they are really good players who are an important part to real good teams who won . All top talent, all really good but they are not Crosby or Gretzky, McDavid etc

While I can't stand how long we have been waiting for a real good team, there is no doubt this team has a lot of pieces already and the team has the assets to go hunting for THEIR difference maker.

You can look back on the cup winners and each winner has something unique they point to as to why they won the cup, the #1 pick is always just a part of the reason.
- wcorvette

1. Lets throw out Blues out of the equation please. They are an outlier. If we were to argue, the relevant point to argue is where Pietro was. I focused my attention on 3 positions: 1st line winger, center and D. I did not include goalie or defensive forward in the criteria, so Binnington and ROR are not relevant.

2. No, I don;t know in this context. And I am almost certain they are not relevant.

3. The emphasis n that statement is on PART. What is your strategy for the other part besides hope?

4. No, drafting high gives you better odds than trading because these guys don't hit the market as often as they come into the draft. Further, the higher you draft, the better the odds. More relevantly, the slope of that odds line sharply increases inside the top 5.

5. The rest of this paragraph is bit mushy for me to address.

6. Doughty was a superstar. In the years when they won the cup, he was probably the best D-man in the league. First ballot HOFer. Bergeron is also going to HOF but anyway, that team had Chara.

You should read it again, the argument is against your....must find stars in the top of 1-5 of the draft and only other teams have impact players that develop from within the rest of the draft.
- NC Flyers Fan[

Flyers—they have Couturier, Selke winner, an established top center

That was not my argument in any of the 20 odd times we have debated this.

Is the argument I’m reading really “we had Lindros once and didn’t win so we shouldn’t want super star players”

Some of you guys are absolutely mental.
- hereticpride

So you completely missed the point of the argument and then are calling people mental.

The reason Gus wasnt waived instead of Ghost is because Ghost was least likely to get claimed.

Gus is a UFA and a no risk move for any team to claim whereas Ghost comes with a 2 year commitment in a flat cap era. As bad as Gus has been, he wasnt this bad in Chicago or Calgary. He still has a history of being a decent defender with good offensive skills. Ghosts struggles have been for much longer.

I can pretty much say with certainty the only reason FLA didnt claim Ghost was because of term. They 100% would have taken Gus IMO.

So sense giving him away for free when you can get at least something for him even if its a low round pick

1. Lets throw out Blues out of the equation please. They are an outlier. If we were to argue, the relevant point to argue is where Pietro was. I focused my attention on 3 positions: 1st line winger, center and D. I did not include goalie or defensive forward in the criteria, so Binnington and ROR are not relevant.

2. No, I don;t know in this context. And I am almost certain they are not relevant.

3. The emphasis n that statement is on PART. What is your strategy for the other part besides hope?

4. No, drafting high gives you better odds than trading because these guys don't hit the market as often as they come into the draft. Further, the higher you draft, the better the odds. More relevantly, the slope of that odds line sharply increases inside the top 5.

5. The rest of this paragraph is bit mushy for me to address.

6. Doughty was a superstar. In the years when they won the cup, he was probably the best D-man in the league. First ballot HOFer. Bergeron is also going to HOF but anyway, that team had Chara.
- PT21

ok great you win they are great, here is what 45, 71, 72 and 11 were...

45th- When Bergeron was drafted
71st Merchand
72nd Quick
11th Kopitar

I am thinking the Flyers have the assets to trade up into these slots and draft who they want, agree or disagree? O I know but the probabilities if they drafted higher.

That covers LA, Boston and you already said lets throw out the Blues. When Tampa won most all agreed it was the grit they added that put them over the top, lord knows they drafted well too, 79 is, well lets stop the suspense that is Brayden Point, most believe their best forward on their cup run. Caps had a top pick with a Generational talent. Pitt surely tanked right on time, I assume they really had money and only went BK because they knew Crosby and Malkin were coming.

You can spin your facts to support your opinion, others can do the same but it ends to be just one part of the puzzle.



Side bar- Chara was drafted 56th

The reason Gus wasnt waived instead of Ghost is because Ghost was least likely to get claimed.

Gus is a UFA and a no risk move for any team to claim whereas Ghost comes with a 2 year commitment in a flat cap era. As bad as Gus has been, he wasnt this bad in Chicago or Calgary. He still has a history of being a decent defender with good offensive skills. Ghosts struggles have been for much longer.

I can pretty much say with certainty the only reason FLA didnt claim Ghost was because of term. They 100% would have taken Gus IMO.

So sense giving him away for free when you can get at least something for him even if its a low round pick
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

they are hoping to move Gus for a pick at some point. Gus will get playing time when the Flyers feel like hope is gone for the Playoffs, sooner if they are playing like crap still

Why is Lindblom sitting tonight? He just had a reset.

And Gostisbehere sitting for Gustafsson.

This franchise is a train wreck

There are teams with Elite players that have gone nowhere because they have not managed their cap well and did not build properly around these players; Edmonton and Buffalo come to mind. But there are other teams that do have elite players and have built the team around them successfully, the Lightning, Toronto, Vegas, Colorado, etc. To say a team does not need to have at least some elite talent to win a cup is just not true, just look at the last 10 cup winners:

Lightning: Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, Vasilevskiy
St. Louis: O'Rielly, Tarasenko,Pietrangelo, Binnington
Capitals: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Carlson
Penguins: Crosby, Malkin, Latang
Chicago: Towes, Kane, Hossa, Keith
LA: Kopitar, Doughty, Quick
Boston: Marchand, Bergeron, Chara, Pastrnak


- jd250

Who has said that you don't need have at least some elite talent to win the cup. Where are you getting that from? PT21 says you have to have player chosen in the top 5. Let's just look at the first team TB.

Stamkos was with the team for 12 seasons before winning the Cup. Hedman for 11 seasons. It wasn't until they built the team around them that they became a cup team. Look who else you mentioned. Brayden Point was selected in the 3rd round. Kucherov in the 2nd round. Vasilevsky was the 19th pick in the first round. All 3 chosen outside of PT21's top 5, which he claims you have to have. You can get elite players without tanking and without picking in the top 5. The Flyers have picked twice with the 2nd overall and what did they get?

Who on the Flyers is in this class right now? No one. Sure Giroux was at one point, but not now, and would argue make Jake was briefly but certainly not now. This is a problem for the Flyers. I agree they can't trade out of it, but I also believe they did not draft as well as they could have, and now they lack a key element they need to make it to the next level. Out of the players above all, except Chara who was acquired via trade, came from drafting and developing!
- jd250

Couturier is an elite center in this league. Giroux is a still a very good player. Farabee is going to be a very good player. He'll be a point per game player in this league. Hart has a chance to be a franchise goalie. Frost could be a sleeper. Provorov is a very good top pairing defenseman. Myers has a chance to be a top pairing defenseman. They have some really good prospects coming up and they have more drafts picks to make. I think you're overreacting to this season.

And that saying they are necessary does not mean that other factors, such as teamwork and good coaching, are also not necessary?
- PT21

That's what you're missing. It's not other factors aren't more important. It's that other factors are every bit as important, if not more important. You ignore the teams that have elite players and don't come close to winning a cup.

Things like "team spirit" or "team work" are very hard to discern. They occur behind public view or cannot be isolated. As such, it is difficult to discuss them because they are difficult to rank, like "character."

Things like coaching are the same. Awards like Jack Adams are often based on improvement rather than consistency. A guy who takes his team from 31 to 16 has a much better chance of winning than a guy who takes his team from 4 to 1.

So, the reason why I fixate on one is not because I diminish the importance of the others. Not at all. It is because the one I fixate on is the one that can be seen through the clearest lens.

I think however the reason you bring up the other things is because you do not wish to face the sheer objective data for the part I 'fixate' on.
- PT21

This is all incorrect. Team spirit and teamwork manifest itself on the ice. It's easy to see and even easier to discuss. Clearly it's easy to see when a coach has done a good job. You'll find that most fans can point out which coaches will finish high up in the Jack Adams voting before even being announced. You fixate on it because you mistakenly believe it the sole key or the biggest key. Your data is not sheer or objective because in your premise, you have ignored data.

Myers has played 97 NHL games, that is limited experience?

Hart: No, but hoping
Farabee: No, but hoping
Couturier: No, but really good (could be that Ryan O'Reilly type)
TK and Lindblom: not likely
G, Jake and JVR: No way, on the downside of the careers.
- jd250

Wow. Yes for an NHL defenseman, playing 97 NHL games is limited experience. Couturier could be that Ryan O'Reilly type? That is hysterical. He already is on that level.

Why is Lindblom sitting tonight? He just had a reset.

And Gostisbehere sitting for Gustafsson.

This franchise is a train wreck
- PLindbergh31

Probably not happy with Lindblom and NoPa's performance Monday. Also its still a lot of games in a lot of nights for young players. Still played 7 Games in 12 nights. Never mind guys who missed a season

ok great you win they are great, here is what 45, 71, 72 and 11 were...

45th- When Bergeron was drafted
71st Merchand
72nd Quick
11th Kopitar

I am thinking the Flyers have the assets to trade up into these slots and draft who they want, agree or disagree? O I know but the probabilities if they drafted higher.

That covers LA, Boston and you already said lets throw out the Blues. When Tampa won most all agreed it was the grit they added that put them over the top, lord knows they drafted well too, 79 is, well lets stop the suspense that is Brayden Point, most believe their best forward on their cup run. Caps had a top pick with a Generational talent. Pitt surely tanked right on time, I assume they really had money and only went BK because they knew Crosby and Malkin were coming.

You can spin your facts to support your opinion, others can do the same but it ends to be just one part of the puzzle.



Side bar- Chara was drafted 56th
- wcorvette

Dude, here is my thesis again. You are arguing something I did not say. I will provide it again for you, as I do not remember discussing it with you before.

Thesis:
All teams who have won the cup (with a couple of caveats explained below) have had the following attributes (forgive me for using caps, just drawing your attention, not yelling):

I. Need for Superstar category

All of them have had AT LEAST ONE player ranked (by any reasonable measure) in the top 5 in AT LEAST ONE of the following positions AT THE START OF THEIR CUP WINNING SEASONS.

1. 1st line center
2. 1st line winger
3. D man.

(please note: goalie (because Crawford was good not great) and defensive forward/Selke nominee (Staal was good not great and the next 2 championship Pens teams did not have a stud there) are not included in this list.

II. Lets call this the Exceptions category.

Caveat #1: Blues - Pietro finished #9 in the previous year's Norris. Many guys however would have included him in top 5 because some of the other names were there based on past play/reputation. Lets throw the Blues out.

Caveat #2: Canes in 2006 had Staal in his 2nd year. He was a tremendous prospect who went #2. However, he was no Crosby and so would not have ranked near the top of the year they won the cup. The previous year was the lockout year, so that was a biased sample.

III. Lets call this the Draft high category:

In every single year except the years Detroit and Boston won, at least one of the superstars in the Superstar category came from a top 5 pick. Detroit benefited from a legendary scout called Hank Aksell at a time when drafting was not so precise. Boston got their superstar via FA (Chara)

1. Lets throw out Blues out of the equation please. They are an outlier. If we were to argue, the relevant point to argue is where Pietro was. I focused my attention on 3 positions: 1st line winger, center and D. I did not include goalie or defensive forward in the criteria, so Binnington and ROR are not relevant.




- PT21

This is what you're famous for. Whatever doesn't fit your premise, you state is not relevant.

long post snipped
- PT21

In summary:

All cup winning teams save Blues have started the cup winning year with a reasonable "consensus top 5 player" in at least one of center, winger or Dman.

Almost always, there players have been top 5 picks.

Not sure how this superstar talk got started, but we have not had one since Lindros (I feel Pronger was closest)

So HOW TO GET ONE????

1. You offer sheet the s*** out of players. I'm not sorry the teams are in that position, that's life. AND they can always match.

2. You wait for one to be alienated from their team and overpay in a trade.

3. You jump all over #1 & #2 when the opportunity arises.

Probably not happy with Lindblom and NoPa's performance Monday. Also its still a lot of games in a lot of nights for young players. Still played 7 Games in 12 nights. Never mind guys who missed a season
- xShoot4WarAmpsx

And what performance will Bunnaman and Twarynski provide? Everyone knows these guys are stiffs and aren’t NHL players.

Why is Gustafsson playing over Gostisbehere? What does he do better?

Not sure how this superstar talk got started, but we have not had one since Lindros (I feel Pronger was closest)

So HOW TO GET ONE????

1. You offer sheet the s*** out of players. I'm not sorry the teams are in that position, that's life. AND they can always match.

2. You wait for one to be alienated from their team and overpay in a trade.

3. You jump all over #1 & #2 when the opportunity arises.
- DrMidnite

Raises hand apologetically.

4. Tanking gives you by far the best odds to land one.

Ghost off waivers, put him in!