No, but I played football in high school, and my freshman year in University before realizing I wouldn't make the team and it was too much trouble waking up so early.

It was a for a Pac-10 school.

Oh what could have been! The riches, the female doges!
- PT21

It was more your equations....it takes me back to my Macro classes.

Does having too many former head coaches help or hurt? To many cooks in the kitchen?

It was more your equations....it takes me back to my Macro* classes.
- landros 2

(frank).

At this rate, I might as well post a link to my website.

Those weren't equations. I see myself much more of a logician/decision-theorist/game-theorist than your bread and butter economist btw.

ANyway, I am outta here.

GO ISLES, RANGERS, DEBS, SABRES!

I have said before that there’s a place in Hockey for analytics. There is so much parity, that a team would be crazy not to use every possible tool at their disposal. But I think the eye test will always be the best method. If you can remain objective in what your seeing and not seeing what you want to see, that to me is the best way to judge a player or a team.
- landros 2

I doubt it. That's what people used to say about Chess before Deep Blue creamed Kasparov. At the exponential rate computer processing power is increasing, you will see much more accurate simulations in 20-25 years latest I suspect.

Bill's Twitter

Flyers have recalled Alex Lyon & Carsen Twarynski from Taxi Squad. Lyon will back up Brian Elliott tonight (Hart starts tomorrow). Twarysnki is 13th forward unless one of Raffl (hand), Couturier (hip) or someone else unavailable. Both Couturier and Raffl took morning skate today.

I understand the fans frustrations but I always get a chuckle when I read about the last decade. That time is irrelevant to now. I think it's completely absurd and shear lunacy to say it's time to move on from Giroux. Unless you're blown away by a deal.
- MJL

The only reason I mention the last decade because the leadership on this team post Pronger has been Giroux and Jake V. They are the only constants through 4 coaches now, and thus I want to change the culture of this team. I don't want to move on from Giroux, but you know as well as I do that the chances he is willing to give up the 'C' and stay on this team is slim and none, so what choice do the Flyers have? They either move on from him or they keep the status quo .. and I HATE the status quo!

I doubt it. That's what people used to say about Chess before Deep Blue creamed Kasparov. At the exponential rate computer processing power is increasing, you will see much more accurate simulations in 20-25 years latest I suspect.
- PT21

There are different variables in a sport like hockey when comparing it to chess....now if you wanted to win on the PS4....then I’m sure a deep blue might be the answer.
In chess character, physical strength, coordination and toughness don’t factor in to an outcome.

That's incomplete reasoning. Did the team D look this bad? Because you would need the latter to make your case.
- PT21

Team D's been garbage clear back to Round 1 Montreal.

(didn't realize that even needed to be said)

This is a pretty morbid argument – which aspect (goal-tending/poor team D) sucks more of your team (while agreeing both suck to high heavens), but I don't understand how anyone can be sure either way without detailed numbers.

As I mentioned the other day, the problem with eye tests is they are so faulty. There is another problem, that is different eyes see different things. In this case, Charlie sees it differently than some of you, clearly.


- PT21

I think what is missing here is that analysis based on detailed numbers is also subject to the same bias. Many come to different conclusions looking at the same numbers. There is not an analytic stat available that can tell you why something happens on the ice. They can only show you what happened.

AAARGHH!!

I know what you mean, but symbiotic relationships happen when two entities have their welfare (and misery) correlated. In both directions.

This would meant:
1. Good goalie play => good team D
2. Good team D => good goalie play
3. Bad team D => Bad goalie play
4. Bad goalie play => bad team D

Look at the bolded parts, which is what we are arguing here. You assert 3, but your usage of the term symbiotic means you cannot rule out 4, which is exactly the opposite of what you are trying to say.

Because 4. would mean it possible that it is Hart's fault that team is playing poor team D.
- PT21

It does go both ways. It's not hard to understand.

The only reason I mention the last decade because the leadership on this team post Pronger has been Giroux and Jake V. They are the only constants through 4 coaches now, and thus I want to change the culture of this team. I don't want to move on from Giroux, but you know as well as I do that the chances he is willing to give up the 'C' and stay on this team is slim and none, so what choice do the Flyers have? They either move on from him or they keep the status quo .. and I HATE the status quo!
- jd250

I disagree with your premise that there are only two choices.

AAARGHH!!

I know what you mean, but symbiotic relationships happen when two entities have their welfare (and misery) correlated. In both directions.

This would meant:
1. Good goalie play => good team D
2. Good team D => good goalie play
3. Bad team D => Bad goalie play
4. Bad goalie play => bad team D

Look at the bolded parts, which is what we are arguing here. You assert 3, but your usage of the term symbiotic means you cannot rule out 4, which is exactly the opposite of what you are trying to say.

Because 4. would mean it possible that it is Hart's fault that team is playing poor team D.
- PT21

Okay, poor word choice on my part. There is bad team play and bad goalie play for sure. Imho, fixing the team play will go farther in helping the goalies than fixing the goalies will help the team play.

I also think the bad team play is more harmful to the goalies than bad goalie play is to the team.

The only reason I mention the last decade because the leadership on this team post Pronger has been Giroux and Jake V. They are the only constants through 4 coaches now, and thus I want to change the culture of this team. I don't want to move on from Giroux, but you know as well as I do that the chances he is willing to give up the 'C' and stay on this team is slim and none, so what choice do the Flyers have? They either move on from him or they keep the status quo .. and I HATE the status quo!
- jd250

Jake doesn’t have a n m c. But guessing you’d have to take back or give a little extra. Like Johansson from preds. Doubt duchene is available. There are players out there on higher contracts that may be available. Catch 22. Could be positive or negative.

To get nothing at this point from frost JOB rubstov is a disappointment.

Okay, poor word choice on my part. There is bad team play and bad goalie play for sure. Imho, fixing the team play will go farther in helping the goalies than fixing the goalies will help the team play.

I also think the bad team play is more harmful to the goalies than bad goalie play is to the team.
- Scoob

In my opinion, poor team defense is what kickstarted Hart's downward spiral

In my opinion, poor team defense is what kickstarted Hart's downward spiral
- MJL

I agree 100%.

I think what is missing here is that analysis based on detailed numbers is also subject to the same bias. Many come to different conclusions looking at the same numbers. There is not an analytic stat available that can tell you why something happens on the ice. They can only show you what happened.
- MJL

1st bold. This is because we are in an age where the analytics are not complete enough. There are still incomplete spaces and that is where the subjectivity arises. Those 'subjectivities' (which are different than the unfortunate word "bias" that you use) would be resolved by further numbers.

2nd bold: Not true. A team Corsi might rise from 49 to 54 over a large sample set when a player is not on the ice. It's hard to tell with the human eye the difference between a 49 Corsi and a 54 Corsi (its only a 2.5% swing across the 2 teams). But the numbers will tell you that this player is contributing negatively to the team's puck possession capabilities.

Okay, poor word choice on my part. There is bad team play and bad goalie play for sure. Imho, fixing the team play will go farther in helping the goalies than fixing the goalies will help the team play.

I also think the bad team play is more harmful to the goalies than bad goalie play is to the team.
- Scoob

Fair enough. I agree.

But I would also argue that Hart and Provorov are further away from being elite than many of you were suggesting last year. Elite guys need to not let shoddy play by teammates affect their own play.

Team D's been garbage clear back to Round 1 Montreal.

(didn't realize that even needed to be said)
- Tomahawk

Ok fair enough. Hart problems did not cause bad team D.

But that is different from providing support for team D problems caused Hart's issues. It could have been caused by an extraneous possibility, for example.

If the kid could withstand poor team D through his first playoffs in Covid times, and have teammates marvel at his stoicism, how come the same guy suddenly become so mentally fragile that he started to unravel with bad team D?

The only explanation I can think of is what you and Hextal271 were saying the other day: the snowball effect.

I would like to see more data on this purported effect. Is there enough data that teams with poor D eventually but not rightaway turn hot goalies cold?

If the kid could withstand poor team D through his first playoffs in Covid times, and have teammates marvel at his stoicism, how come the same guy suddenly become so mentally fragile that he started to unravel with bad team D?

The only explanation I can think of is what you and Hextal271 were saying the other day: the snowball effect.
- PT21

Shell shock.

There are different variables in a sport like hockey when comparing it to chess....now if you wanted to win on the PS4....then I’m sure a deep blue might be the answer.
In chess character, physical strength, coordination and toughness don’t factor in to an outcome.
- landros 2

Character and toughness are awfully important in Chess.

But more to the point, the way it would work is this: in as much that character, toughness etc matter in games, they must manifest themselves in certain times to be defined as such. Maybe in clutch times like playoffs, maybe doing the little things when on a scoring slump, maybe fighting when a player is hit, or a fighter not fighting when a team is down by just 1 goal.

All these are data points, which can be digitized just like shots, goals, etc can. Then used for predictions, just like Google and FB and so on mine trillions of bits of data to find the barcode of your soul. And trust me, there is a barcode.

Don't get me wrong. I am no cheerleader for that age. I will be glad to have departed when that comes.

But its coming.

1st bold. This is because we are in an age where the analytics are not complete enough. There are still incomplete spaces and that is where the subjectivity arises. Those 'subjectivities' (which are different than the unfortunate word "bias" that you use) would be resolved by further numbers.


- PT21

That's true but it won't be resolved by further numbers. It will be resolved by better data. Teams are already doing this and have been doing for a long time. The analytics available to us as fans are archaic. Bias is the right word.

2nd bold: Not true. A team Corsi might rise from 49 to 54 over a large sample set when a player is not on the ice. It's hard to tell with the human eye the difference between a 49 Corsi and a 54 Corsi (its only a 2.5% swing across the 2 teams). But the numbers will tell you that this player is contributing negatively to the team's puck possession capabilities.
- PT21

You are wrong. Corsi is a team number and not an individual number. You couldn't have picked a worst stat to make your argument. So many variables are not accounted for. Corsi or any derivative of corsi cannot tell you why something happens on the ice. It can only tell you what happened.

Fair enough. I agree.

But I would also argue that Hart and Provorov are further away from being elite than many of you were suggesting last year. Elite guys need to not let shoddy play by teammates affect their own play.
- PT21

Is Jack Eichel an elite player? Are his teammates affecting his own play this season? You are grossly underestimating the role the team plays.

Ok fair enough. Hart problems did not cause bad team D.

But that is different from providing support for team D problems caused Hart's issues. It could have been caused by an extraneous possibility, for example.

If the kid could withstand poor team D through his first playoffs in Covid times, and have teammates marvel at his stoicism, how come the same guy suddenly become so mentally fragile that he started to unravel with bad team D?

The only explanation I can think of is what you and Hextal271 were saying the other day: the snowball effect.

I would like to see more data on this purported effect. Is there enough data that teams with poor D eventually but not rightaway turn hot goalies cold?
- PT21

My explanation would be that he is human. Why do yo always try and make things so complicated?

Character and toughness are awfully important in Chess.

But more to the point, the way it would work is this: in as much that character, toughness etc matter in games, they must manifest themselves in certain times to be defined as such. Maybe in clutch times like playoffs, maybe doing the little things when on a scoring slump, maybe fighting when a player is hit, or a fighter not fighting when a team is down by just 1 goal.

All these are data points, which can be digitized just like shots, goals, etc can. Then used for predictions, just like Google and FB and so on mine trillions of bits of data to find the barcode of your soul. And trust me, there is a barcode.

Don't get me wrong. I am no cheerleader for that age. I will be glad to have departed when that comes.

But its coming.
- PT21

The fact that you're comparing hockey to google and facebook shows that there is a real disconnect between being inside a "bubble" and the real world of the actual sport.