GEEZ


The beginning of the season the Team wasn’t playing well but goaltending was, the Flyers were winning. Then the team play got better and goaltending sagged and it was a mixed bag. Then both goaltending and team play was bad and it was all losing.

One affects the other, at times one has carried the other. It would be nice to see both consistent.
- wcorvette

For the most part I don’t think the Flyers have played to their ability all year. There does not seem to be a commitment every night to their system. To me, that’s simply caught up to them. I guess I just think there’s more there. I still don’t like the over all construction of the team, but they are deep. The amount of grade A chances the Flyers are giving up is alarming.
Your bang on with your point on consistency.

Lines staying the same. I think this is the first time they play the same lines two games in a row since the first and second game of the season.

Hart in net. The kid will work through this.

Actually it is you who doesn't understand which is illustrated by your comments. The variance does not go away as the sample size increases. That is a fallacy. In fact with a team like the Flyers and how they have been as a team defensively, the higher quality danger chances keep piling up. So while the rate of high danger chances may be similar to last year, the quality is not. You proved my point with your comments on Sanhiem and Myers. It also shows that you don't understand what AV's system is. It is not a boring clog up the neutral zone system.
- MJL

MJL, it is also theoretically possible that 500 years of statistics, thousands of textbooks, millions of sets of data that empirically confirm this are all wrong, but I would very strongly bet against it.

I found it!



In this example from WAR on Ice, shots from the yellow zone indicate low danger chances, shots from the pink zone indicate medium danger chances, and shots from the blue zone indicate high danger chances. In calculating SCF, shots from the yellow zone are assigned a score of one, pink assigned a score of two, and blue assigned a score of three. Rush chances and rebounds are assigned an additional point. A blocked shot lose one point. Scoring chances are counted as any event that is above a score of two.

For example, only rebounds or rush chances from the yellow zone that hit the net would be counted as scoring chances. Any unblocked shots from the pink zone, a blocked rebound or rush chance from the pink zone, or any shot from the blue zone would also count as scoring chances.
- jd250

Thanks for this reminder.

It is very easy to check the snowball hypothesis that Hextall271 and Tomahawk were suggesting. Plot a graph of HDSV% on x-axis versus # of HDC for a large enough data set (say all teams for last 5 season, where a point on the graph is, for each team, their HDSV% for that season, and their total HDC).

If the trend-line of that graph is flat, then it doesn't hold. The more steep that graph is, the more the support for the snowball hypothesis.

Then plot the (HDSV%, HDC) for the Flyers this season on that graph.


And you will have a very precise answer of the question of how much goalie struggles have been due to poor D play and how much due to bad goalie play.

MJL, it is also theoretically possible that 500 years of statistics, thousands of textbooks, millions of sets of data that empirically confirm this are all wrong, but I would very strongly bet against it.
- PT21

PT21, this comment again points to the fact that being educated does not make someone smart.

I spent some time reading your posts about these stats (back and forth) and I'm hoping you are both just doing this for giggles, cause if not you guys need some serious hobbies outside of watching hockey and posting on hockey buzz. Very funny tho'. As Maximum might say" ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED"?
- DANCER

Don't know if you're gonna get a chance to read this...I appreciate the concern and have my appointment for my 1st shot next week...I'm really looking forward to being able to get onto the tennis courts this summer. I'm using this sight to find someone (anyone) to discuss my other true passion (beside tennis) hockey. What made me laugh is that I do statistical analysis for DOD...any you guys had some pretty wild back and forth.

Don't know if you're gonna get a chance to read this...I appreciate the concern and have my appointment for my 1st shot next week...I'm really looking forward to being able to get onto the tennis courts this summer. I'm using this sight to find someone (anyone) to discuss my other true passion (beside tennis) hockey. What made me laugh is that I do statistical analysis for DOD...any you guys had some pretty wild back and forth.

- DANCER

Thanks for the heads up on the current thread. I often forget old blogs.

I am sure you can find people to discuss hockey with here. Lots of knowledgeable people abound.

Yeah, I too am steeped in probability/statistics at many levels (intellectually, professionally, pedagogically, spiritually). These concepts are really a mirror of the world. One can choose to see the reflection or not. But it never changes the presence of the reflection.

I thought jd250 raised some thought provoking issues. I will hopefully find time to look at some #s and continue the discussion in the future.

Glad to have you around. on the forthcoming innoculation and I know exactly what you mean by longing to play tennis this summer though for me it would be shooting hoops.