How do you get that from what I posted unless you simply want to argue about it? I just posted the Flyers defense around HDCA has degraded from last year to this year, and I have been railing against the play of the Flyers defense the entire year; and I might add while you have been telling me the Flyers have 4 "legitimate" top 4 dmen! Its just that the Flyers goalies have degraded more this year according to these advanced metrics.

As far as your point about whether the goalie is stationary or not, it statistically irrelevant because over the course of a season it all balances out, i.e. sometimes the goalie is stationary and gets beat, and other times they are sliding across the crease and gets beat. The point is Hart and Elliott have not been as good this year as they were last year .. can anyone really argue this based on what you have watched??
- jd250

The goalies have struggled and the team defense has seemingly gotten worse. Recipe for giving up a lot of goals. They showed they are capable of better team defense for 50 minutes last night. They need to build from that. I think the goalies will gain confidence as the team defense improves and Hart continues to workout his issues.

This should never be ignored nor denied.
- Scoob

No one here has denied this ... all the metrics are saying is the goalies have regressed farther than the team has regressed in allowed HDCA. You are right that the metrics don't tell you why, that is for the coaching staff and players to figure out, and the 50 GMS on this forum. Metrics are used to start a conversation, to create awareness so that solutions can be determined. But to argue against advanced metrics is lunacy (my new favorite word) because in this case they are giving us good indicators of where this team is regressing from last year's team.

Nolan Patrick played last night...

(can forgive you for not noticing tho, he did next to nothing)
- Tomahawk

I thought not being overtly noticeable on the 4th line, that as a line looked okay, was good.

In that regard, the eye test tells us more than the stats. One other intangible factor is that a goalies confidence is shaken after so many brekdowns etc and he normally stops being aggressive playing too far back into his net resulting in showing the shooter too much. Then more goals scored.. less confidence. Goalie becomes less confident in d, d less confident on goalie and it’s a downward spiral. Hard to get out of.

The right habits need to be entrenched meaning a team commitment to d. Then goalie starts to trust the d, goalie more confident.. team more confident in the goalie, more willing to take smart risks and not tentative.. and it spirals the good way. None of these aspects show in the stats but people who play or watch a lot can see it .
- Hextall271

I think this is spot on...horses before the cart. Maybe not the only way to fix it, but clearly the most efficient and effective. It’s not really that stats are meaningless, and there are surely team-created stats that better show specific weaknesses. I really think some folks make too much of this about Hart’s confidence, when team d and lack of practice time along with technical adjustments are the root cause.

Nolan Patrick played last night...

(can forgive you for not noticing tho, he did next to nothing)
- Tomahawk

My bad, he played 10 mins. Your right I never noticed him and I just assumed Lindblom came in and Patrick went out, lol

My bad, he played 10 mins. Your right I never noticed him and I just assumed Lindblom came in and Patrick went out, lol
- joegreif17

Lol

I feel like goals are way up in the NHL this season. I did not look at the data. This is just a personal observation.
- mickel25

Mainly in that dumb ass canadian north divisions, thank you Ottawa and Vancouver in particular for making nhl stats so out of whack.

Mainly in that dumb ass canadian north divisions, thank you Ottawa and Vancouver in particular for making nhl stats so out of whack.
- joegreif17

That makes sense. I feel like every final I see from that division somebody has 5 goals.

Haven't the other teams been affected by covid and the lack of practice time as well?
- corduroy

In the East division, Covid hit the Devils and Buffalo and us and at least some of the Rangers. There has been very little reports of positive tests on the other teams, some for Capitals early I think. Really not all equally for sure.

The teams that miss time will not only have to recovery physically from illness and a stoppage without practice time, they will also have an even more condensed schedule.

Edit: see this article for a by team accounting
https://www.sportingnews....c7dlvqxmejwu1ooydrunvg2nu

I thought not being overtly noticeable on the 4th line, that as a line looked okay, was good.
- NC Flyers Fan

He didn’t play poorly and they got matched a few times with a higher line from the isles. Had a penalty similar to barzal. Think he had a shot or two go wide and a deflection attempt. NAK was the standout on that line and Catawba one hit. In the first period nopa had some good battles in front of the net. So plus. But same as others. Playing to not make a mistake.

It’s been discussed. Really he was reset back to his rookie season imo. So much time missed.

He didn’t play poorly and they got matched a few times with a higher line from the isles. Had a penalty similar to barzal. Think he had a shot or two go wide and a deflection attempt. NAK was the standout on that line and Catawba one hit. In the first period nopa had some good battles in front of the net. So plus. But same as others. Playing to not make a mistake.

It’s been discussed. Really he was reset back to his rookie season imo. So much time missed.
- Peter Richards

He is getting to play and work on his game. Positives. The 4th line with Raffl would be even better but they did fine.

NAK and Patrick both with penalties. Except Patrick also drew one so his was a wash.

In the East division, Covid hit the Devils and Buffalo and us and at least some of the Rangers. There has been very little reports of positive tests on the other teams, some for Capitals early I think. Really not all equally for sure.

The teams that miss time will not only have to recovery physically from illness and a stoppage without practice time, they will also have an even more condensed schedule.

Edit: see this article for a by team accounting
https://www.sportingnews....c7dlvqxmejwu1ooydrunvg2nu
- NC Flyers Fan

But on the flip side, they have immunity during the stretch run/playoffs.

He is getting to play and work on his game. Positives. The 4th line with Raffl would be even better but they did fine.

NAK and Patrick both with penalties. Except Patrick also drew one so his was a wash.
- NC Flyers Fan

He has been more engaged and physical the last couple games. Almost doesn’t count but Had a really good shot against the rangers. And this isn’t new. His first two seasons he came on the latter half of each year. With everything back to zero this year. He is one of the only ones that has a descent excuse this year.

But on the flip side, they have immunity during the stretch run/playoffs.
- PT21

Time to win to get there. Other teams may never experience an issue. Vaccine availability may also come into play.

I bought up the idea of trying Morin on defense because things could get any worse. Some object, some are open to the idea. In truth, I don’t think anyone is wrong. Samuel Morin has been hurt the last couple years and now he finally returns and he’s playing LW. For anyone here to pretend like they know where his level of play is at right now is kidding themself. Is Morin currently working on his game at defense or wing at the AHL level?
- SuperSchennBros

I agree with you, I also say give Morin a chance on D. He played defence for Canada on their world junior team so at one time someone must have thought he was one of the top defensive prospects in all of Canada. I do believe that he is now playing defence in Lehigh and I understand is doing quite well. 6'6" defencemen don't come along every day why would the Flyers want to change the one they have into a forward

He has been more engaged and physical the last couple games. Almost doesn’t count but Had a really good shot against the rangers. And this isn’t new. His first two seasons he came on the latter half of each year. With everything back to zero this year. He is one of the only ones that has a descent excuse this year.
- Peter Richards

Last night had me thinking...maybe we rest Oskar every 4th game or so....then unleash him full time in playoffs.

I agree with you, I also say give Morin a chance on D. He played defence for Canada on their world junior team so at one time someone must have thought he was one of the top defensive prospects in all of Canada. I do believe that he is now playing defence in Lehigh and I understand is doing quite well. 6'6" defencemen don't come along every day why would the Flyers want to change the one they have into a forward
- Dr. Pepper

If Myers still struggles and they want to split him and Sanheim, they could go Sanheim-Braun and Morin-Myers. It was a while back and only preseason but I really liked Morin-Myers pairing.

Boston in Covid protocols, next 2 games cancelled

Boston in Covid protocols, next 2 games cancelled
- wcorvette

Hopefully everyone gets by heathy. Can’t wish that misfortune on any team and missing time is tough.

All high danger chances need not be the same for the argument to be valid. As long as they are evenly scattered around the median kind, the result will be the same.

If you are spotting that the kind Flyers are giving up is not evenly scattered around the mainstream kind over many games, you may have spotted a weakness in the stat that you should send to the guys.

It could be known as the MJL correction to the HDSV%.

- PT21

This is the 3rd post in a row that you made that completely missed the boat. When comparing the rate, now understand what rate is, from last year to this year and seeing that it is similar. Then drawing from that a conclusion that goaltending is the issue and not the defense in front of it, well that's not understanding the stat. You're arguing from the wrong point of view and are confusing rate with the difficulty of a quality chance and the variables of the difficulty. The stat cannot measure that. The weakness has always been there.

How do you get that from what I posted unless you simply want to argue about it? I just posted the Flyers defense around HDCA has degraded from last year to this year, and I have been railing against the play of the Flyers defense the entire year; and I might add while you have been telling me the Flyers have 4 "legitimate" top 4 dmen! Its just that the Flyers goalies have degraded more this year according to these advanced metrics.

As far as your point about whether the goalie is stationary or not, it statistically irrelevant because over the course of a season it all balances out, i.e. sometimes the goalie is stationary and gets beat, and other times they are sliding across the crease and gets beat. The point is Hart and Elliott have not been as good this year as they were last year .. can anyone really argue this based on what you have watched??
- jd250

I'll put it simply like this and if you disagree, then that just proves what I've already said. The stat you posted does not just point to goaltending. It points to overall team defense and goaltending. It goes back to your trend of wanting to single out a player for a team wide issue. When it comes to analysis of the stat, the difference in quality and difficulty between even a subset of data points such as high danger chances is extremely relevant. Again, if you disagree then that again proves what I've already said.

Hopefully that’s the Islanders we see for the rest of the season. I though they played very lazy the 1st two periods.
- hereticpride

That's where we are... we have to hope other teams suck more than we do to move forward?

No one here has denied this ... all the metrics are saying is the goalies have regressed farther than the team has regressed in allowed HDCA. You are right that the metrics don't tell you why, that is for the coaching staff and players to figure out, and the 50 GMS on this forum. Metrics are used to start a conversation, to create awareness so that solutions can be determined. But to argue against advanced metrics is lunacy (my new favorite word) because in this case they are giving us good indicators of where this team is regressing from last year's team.
- jd250

That's incorrect. Again the flaw in the stat is that it cannot differentiate between more routine shots that are considered a high danger chance and far more dangerous high danger chances. For example, if a wrist shot is taken from a high danger chance area where the goalie is stationary and out on his angle. That is a far less dangerous shot than a shot in a high danger area with an open net for the shooter to look at.
If a team defensively gives up the same rate of high danger chances as a previous season but the chances are far more dangerous, than that has a big effect on the goaltending HDSV%. How can we know if that is the case? We can watch the game! It's lunacy to blindly look at a stat, come to a flawed conclusion and ignore watching the game!
Did you feel the same way about Sanheim and Myers last season as you do currently? How about with Provorv? Should I refresh your memory of your recent comments about the Flyers defense? I'm not singling them out here. I'm using it as an example of how I think your conclusion is flawed. You can't eliminate the team's play in front of the goaltending from the equation when looking at goaltending numbers. To do so is lunacy!

I said it last year and I'll repeat it (with a little more of you in agreement now) Patrick is done. He is just milking the last few drops at the expense of the team and fans.

Glad we could all help... Now please go home.

Did a quick look at the NHL remaining schedule, in my opinion the Flyers better have control over their own destiny before the last handful of games. Quick look but seems they have a tougher go of it at the end.

All teams struggle, not 9-0 struggle but struggle. Boston was going to run away with it, now they have had a bad stretch. Their own bias blog said the other day “maybe the Bruins just are not that good after the first line”. Isles started slow, then fast and now they will have to deal with some injuries, like losing a Coots. Pens are MEH and now Malkin is week to week.

Why they play all the games. Whoever is playing their best hockey down the stretch and the healthiest, with a little bit of luck will go the furthest.

Get it all out