100%.
- Tomahawk

I have to think the covid outbreak and into the crazy sched with zero practice has led them down this path. Although they began the year with issues.

I have to think the covid outbreak and into the crazy sched with zero practice has led them down this path. Although they began the year with issues.
- Hextall271

My answer to that is it is pretty much the same issue for every team. Although no doubt the lack of quality practice time hurts a team trying to correct bad habits.

I really don’t understand the blaming the team D on practice time. How many games have these guys played, how much video do they watch, the concept is not rocket science. These guys have all played hockey for a long time, it’s getting ridiculous the lack of attention to detail this group has.

That a goalies play and the team defense are symbiotic is a fundamental truth of the sport.
- MJL

This should never be ignored nor denied.

This was a solid bounce back from the humiliating drubbing. A solid 50 minutes and the last ten minutes showed how fragile this group can be. One thing for sure it shows the talent is there and a little tweaking and confidence returning can change everything. I am glad AV read my recent blogs and got Patrick out of the lineup, lol There may be a future for that boy but it is not now. Patrick has been in over his head since game 10 and it really has affected the team overall imo. Hope we can get it going again and really nice to see the old Oscar for the first time since his return.

I have to think the covid outbreak and into the crazy sched with zero practice has led them down this path. Although they began the year with issues.
- Hextall271

One of the youngest teams in the league, too.

Think we also tend to underestimate just how hard it is to keep 20-guys on the same page and rolling along. Team-wide commitment, attention to detail, and maintaining a high level of focus and accountability. The players share so much of that responsibility.

I really don’t understand the blaming the team D on practice time. How many games have these guys played, how much video do they watch, the concept is not rocket science. These guys have all played hockey for a long time, it’s getting ridiculous the lack of attention to detail this group has.
- ClaudeFather

Practice time would probably help with that.

Furthermore, a team is made up of individuals, each with their specific responsibilities. When all players are doing their job the right way, the team has a chance to be successful, otherwise they fall flat. So it is very appropriate to look at individual performances and how they impact the team play overall.
- jd250

Exactly and to the point. That is why replacing Patrick in the lineup was huge last night. I think he has a future but not at this time. One line mate not pulling his weight can severely impact a good trio. Giroux really stepped it up last night and was a leader he is capable of, really thrilled with the effort after the drubbing.

Nolan Patrick played last night...

(can forgive you for not noticing tho, he did next to nothing)

Practice time would probably help with that.
- Scoob

Would it though, it really takes more practice after 20 something games and hours and hours of video to pay attention on the ice and be alert. Sounds like the players need to lock in, not practice more

Didn’t realize we were 3 points back of Boston with same amount of game’s played and 4 points back of Pittsburg with two games in hand.
Still going to be extremely tough.

Didn’t realize we were 3 points back of Boston with same amount of game’s played and 4 points back of Pittsburg with two games in hand.
Still going to be extremely tough.
- Buzzo

It helps the penguins lost to the devils last night. I thought only the Flyers lost to bad teams.

Exactly. It's a symbiotic relationship. Very dependent on each other. Very well said All any of those stats can tell you is what happened. They cannot tell you why it's happened. That takes analysis. As we've seen in this thread. Individual analysis can be faulty. That is the fallacy of analytics.
- MJL

Those stats also don't relate the negative impact of quick strike goals after scoring yourself. That's hugely deflating. It seems to happen virtually every game...last night being the exception.

In that regard, the eye test tells us more than the stats.
- Hextall271

Hmmm. I personally tend to be somewhat leery of this line of arguments. Because almost always, the arguer is wrong, and because it often is more of an expression of the person's discomfort with statistics.

Not saying anything personal against you at all, btw. Just a general point. I completely agree about Hart's potential. Just that he is not there yet, and that there is a chance he may never will.

One other intangible factor is that a goalies confidence is shaken after so many brekdowns etc and he normally stops being aggressive playing too far back into his net resulting in showing the shooter too much. Then more goals scored.. less confidence. Goalie becomes less confident in d, d less confident on goalie and it’s a downward spiral. Hard to get out of.
- Hextall271

Sure. You are saying the volume of shots and the save % are correlated and thus not linear. A goalie might save 80% of the first 10 HD shots, but only 70% of the first 30, because of the snowballing effect.

This can be easily checked/corrected. First establish what the trend line is across the league and across seasons, and then see if our goalies are departing from that trend. Alternatively, look only at sv% of the teams that give up a similarly high # of HD chances.

Hopefully that’s the Islanders we see for the rest of the season. I though they played very lazy the 1st two periods.
- hereticpride

I would expect a extremely pissed off Islanders team Saturday.

Symbiotic is the Exact right term.
- Hextall271

If it was symbiotic, that's a 2 way link, and then the goalies inability to make the save should increase the probability that there is a breakdown, which means the goalie would be partly responsible for the defensive lapse, which would dilute your point.

I think you want the causality to run only 1 way.

Didn’t realize we were 3 points back of Boston with same amount of game’s played and 4 points back of Pittsburg with two games in hand.
Still going to be extremely tough.
- Buzzo

Well if they can fix their crap over the next few games and start a run the schedule over the next few weeks is easier before a gauntlet.

All that stat can really measure is quantity of shots taken that meet a certain parameter. It really overall does a poor job. All high danger chances are not the same. The quality of the shots and chances the Flyers have allowed no doubt has contributed greatly to the Flyers HDSV%. So while the rates may be comparable to seasons past, the actual quality is not comparable. We know that or at least should know that from watching the game.
- MJL

All high danger chances need not be the same for the argument to be valid. As long as they are evenly scattered around the median kind, the result will be the same.

If you are spotting that the kind Flyers are giving up is not evenly scattered around the mainstream kind over many games, you may have spotted a weakness in the stat that you should send to the guys.

It could be known as the MJL correction to the HDSV%.

I have to think the covid outbreak and into the crazy sched with zero practice has led them down this path. Although they began the year with issues.
- Hextall271

Haven't the other teams been affected by covid and the lack of practice time as well?

Haven't the other teams been affected by covid and the lack of practice time as well?
- corduroy

I feel like goals are way up in the NHL this season. I did not look at the data. This is just a personal observation.

I would expect a extremely pissed off Islanders team Saturday.
- Angus4444

Why? They can sleep walk through 50 minutes and still have even shot at winning. That is the third time in two seasons the Flyers blew a 3-0 lead to the Isles in the third period.

I bought up the idea of trying Morin on defense because things could get any worse. Some object, some are open to the idea. In truth, I don’t think anyone is wrong. Samuel Morin has been hurt the last couple years and now he finally returns and he’s playing LW. For anyone here to pretend like they know where his level of play is at right now is kidding themself. Is Morin currently working on his game at defense or wing at the AHL level?

That's not understanding the weaknesses of the stat itself. For example a shot taken with the goalie stationary from a spot is not the same as a shot taken from the same spot with the goalie moving side to side. Your conclusion is a faulty one and it excludes the role of the players playing in front of the goaltender. That a goalies play and the team defense are symbiotic is a fundamental truth of the sport. It is not one way and it is dependent on each other. So while it is true that the goalies must improve. It is also true that the team defense must improve and both will help each other. Your premise suggests that the Flyers team defense is fine and there is only a goalie issue.
- MJL

How do you get that from what I posted unless you simply want to argue about it? I just posted the Flyers defense around HDCA has degraded from last year to this year, and I have been railing against the play of the Flyers defense the entire year; and I might add while you have been telling me the Flyers have 4 "legitimate" top 4 dmen! Its just that the Flyers goalies have degraded more this year according to these advanced metrics.

As far as your point about whether the goalie is stationary or not, it statistically irrelevant because over the course of a season it all balances out, i.e. sometimes the goalie is stationary and gets beat, and other times they are sliding across the crease and gets beat. The point is Hart and Elliott have not been as good this year as they were last year .. can anyone really argue this based on what you have watched??

The numbers he posted, if true, are too unambiguous. They provide strong evidence that while defensive play has slipped relative to league and last year, goalie play has slipped even more, at least in the high danger areas.

Whether it is due to natural random variability (as you allude earlier) or due to mental pressures stemming from poor defensive coverage or anything else is speculation. But goalie play has slipped more than the defensive breakdowns (again speaking of high danger areas).
- PT21

Yes .. well said!

Haven't the other teams been affected by covid and the lack of practice time as well?
- corduroy

Just the Flyers, as you can see by all the folks blaming it. This team has been inconsistent for how long? I guess they just need more practice...