Again, here is the fundamental truth of the sport. It is a team game. Post after post, you want to single out individual players you have a bias against. When it comes to high danger SV%, it is not just on the goalies. This is a team wide issue. It's not just on the goalies. It's not just on the defenseman. It is on the entire team. Hart should've made some saves on the goals. The Flyers coverage should've been better on the goals. The point is not that the goalies don't have to be better. We all know they do. We also know the entire team needs to be better defensively. I'm willing to bet that if the Flyers team defense tightens up, the goaltending will get better. The Flyers goalies high danger SV% is a s much an indictment on the extreme quality of chances give up as it is on the goalies.
- MJL

There is not a floating criteria for High Danger Chance Against, there is a specific definition that is used. So what was considered a HDCA this year is the same as what was considered a HDCA last year. HDSV% is thus a consistent and useful statistic and it shows the Flyers goalies have dipped from 7th to 29th in the league. I don't believe the two are as dependent as you think they are, i.e. even if the Flyers tighten their defense, the goalies still must improve when a HDCA occurs.

Again, here is the fundamental truth of the sport. It is a team game. Post after post, you want to single out individual players you have a bias against. When it comes to high danger SV%, it is not just on the goalies. This is a team wide issue. It's not just on the goalies. It's not just on the defenseman. It is on the entire team. Hart should've made some saves on the goals. The Flyers coverage should've been better on the goals. The point is not that the goalies don't have to be better. We all know they do. We also know the entire team needs to be better defensively. I'm willing to bet that if the Flyers team defense tightens up, the goaltending will get better. The Flyers goalies high danger SV% is a s much an indictment on the extreme quality of chances give up as it is on the goalies.
- MJL

Furthermore, a team is made up of individuals, each with their specific responsibilities. When all players are doing their job the right way, the team has a chance to be successful, otherwise they fall flat. So it is very appropriate to look at individual performances and how they impact the team play overall.

Hopefully that’s the Islanders we see for the rest of the season. I though they played very lazy the 1st two periods.

Outside of a few elite superstars, most goaltenders experience significant variance in situational SV%s from year to year. Maybe not as wide a swing as Hart has, but still variable.

What can be controlled is how well your team plays in front of your goalies. Limit high danger chances as much as possible -- protect against cross-ice plays that open goalies up and keep everything to the outside so your goalie isn't 1v1.

Tippett and Trotz teams are famous for this, and it's why their goalies always have higher SV%s.
- Tomahawk

Every team is going to have defensive breakdowns in a game, that is just a fact of life. Not as many as the Flyers have, but still there will be some. And when those breakdowns occur you have to rely on the last line of defense, the goalie, to bail you out. The Islanders are a good defensive team, I'm sure we can all agree to this. But even the Islanders had defensive breakdowns last night and their goalie didn't bail them out. Clearly the Flyers defense has been horrid this season, but the goalies have not bailed them out either, in fact they have dipped quite a bit compared to last year relative to how many more high danger chances they are facing.

Loved to see Giroux lead the way last night , came out with a shoot first mentality and factored in on 3 goals. That screen was great on the game winner. Nice to see that line click, in limited minutes too
- ClaudeFather

he has been going to the net more.

Good morning Flyers fans. It is a chilly Friday. College bball all day, what more can one ask for?
- login

Maybe a Philadelphia Flyers Stanley Cup Championship!

Did last nights game help or still hurt Harts struggle in his head?
- Buzzo

It will take time. He has no confidence in what is happening in front of him.

Guess we can say they are trending again. Next couple games they have to play like the first period alllllll game.

Yes, it illustrates just how bad a lot of the defensive breakdowns have been.
- Tomahawk

The numbers he posted, if true, are too unambiguous. They provide strong evidence that while defensive play has slipped relative to league and last year, goalie play has slipped even more, at least in the high danger areas.

Whether it is due to natural random variability (as you allude earlier) or due to mental pressures stemming from poor defensive coverage or anything else is speculation. But goalie play has slipped more than the defensive breakdowns (again speaking of high danger areas).

Maybe a Philadelphia Flyers Stanley Cup Championship!
- dubc55

leafs and sabres will win one before the flyers. Probably Ottawa as well...

I thought Twarynski and NAK played well in limited minutes. Noticed some more physicality from the pair which has been desperately needed. NAK will eventually stay out of the penalty box.

From last blog

With Patrick, I think they should give him the full year, then they have 3 years of data to look at to make a decision on what to do next. I for one don' have faith he will ever be a top 6 forward in this league, I just didn't see enough from him in his first two full years with the team.
- jd250

My defense of Patrick.

1. He clearly has loads of talent.
2. He is still very young, coming off a long layoff, with enormous pressure, with no training camp. This is essentially his rookie year again.
3. The mistakes he is making, in my eye, seem to reflect #2 above: he is making passes where people are not there, leading to turnovers. His shots seem a tad hurried. He is usually in pretty good position but fails to make the play, loses 1-on-1 battles, or give that extra 10%. Seems a confidence/acclimatization issue.
4. It will not cost much to keep him around. The rewards may be high/very high down the road.
5. The test was whether he could take hits and stay in the line up. He has done that. We need to take the long view on the kid.

leafs and sabres will win one before the flyers. Probably Ottawa as well...
- login

Please don't say that

Great game. If Islanders dont ice that puck late in the third, Flyers very well could have lost it in regulation with how strong the ice was tilting to the NYI. All around great game.

Hopefully that’s the Islanders we see for the rest of the season. I though they played very lazy the 1st two periods.
- hereticpride

the flyers only won because they were missing anders lee.

From last blog



My defense of Patrick.

1. He clearly has loads of talent.
2. He is still very young, coming off a long layoff, with enormous pressure, with no training camp. This is essentially his rookie year again.
3. The mistakes he is making, in my eye, seem to reflect #2 above: he is making passes where people are not there, leading to turnovers. His shots seem a tad hurried. He is usually in pretty good position but fails to make the play, loses 1-on-1 battles, or give that extra 10%. Seems a confidence/acclimatization issue.
4. It will not cost much to keep him around. The rewards may be high/very high down the road.
5. The test was whether he could take hits and stay in the line up. He has done that. We need to take the long view on the kid.
- PT21

I am inclined to like the kid... he's mature and even-keeled. He does everything decently.

He's gotta win back his ice time now by being more of a factor w/o the puck. It seems AV is done feeding him free lunch. Can't score if you're not on the ice.

leafs and sabres will win one before the flyers. Probably Ottawa as well...
- login

- Ftown19125

Should have added Seattle to the list

Should have added Seattle to the list
- Hextall271

haha every team. just not the flyers. ever.

There is not a floating criteria for High Danger Chance Against, there is a specific definition that is used. So what was considered a HDCA this year is the same as what was considered a HDCA last year. HDSV% is thus a consistent and useful statistic and it shows the Flyers goalies have dipped from 7th to 29th in the league. I don't believe the two are as dependent as you think they are, i.e. even if the Flyers tighten their defense, the goalies still must improve when a HDCA occurs.
- jd250

That's not understanding the weaknesses of the stat itself. For example a shot taken with the goalie stationary from a spot is not the same as a shot taken from the same spot with the goalie moving side to side. Your conclusion is a faulty one and it excludes the role of the players playing in front of the goaltender. That a goalies play and the team defense are symbiotic is a fundamental truth of the sport. It is not one way and it is dependent on each other. So while it is true that the goalies must improve. It is also true that the team defense must improve and both will help each other. Your premise suggests that the Flyers team defense is fine and there is only a goalie issue.

Furthermore, a team is made up of individuals, each with their specific responsibilities. When all players are doing their job the right way, the team has a chance to be successful, otherwise they fall flat. So it is very appropriate to look at individual performances and how they impact the team play overall.
- jd250

Of course it's appropriate to look at each individual's play and their role. The point that evades you is that a goalies HDSV% is just not about the goalie. A team is made up of an individuals but if it plays like individuals then it is not a good team. How those individuals mesh and play together is what makes a good team.

Yes, it illustrates just how bad a lot of the defensive breakdowns have been.
- Tomahawk

In that regard, the eye test tells us more than the stats. One other intangible factor is that a goalies confidence is shaken after so many brekdowns etc and he normally stops being aggressive playing too far back into his net resulting in showing the shooter too much. Then more goals scored.. less confidence. Goalie becomes less confident in d, d less confident on goalie and it’s a downward spiral. Hard to get out of.

The right habits need to be entrenched meaning a team commitment to d. Then goalie starts to trust the d, goalie more confident.. team more confident in the goalie, more willing to take smart risks and not tentative.. and it spirals the good way. None of these aspects show in the stats but people who play or watch a lot can see it .

The numbers he posted, if true, are too unambiguous. They provide strong evidence that while defensive play has slipped relative to league and last year, goalie play has slipped even more, at least in the high danger areas.

Whether it is due to natural random variability (as you allude earlier) or due to mental pressures stemming from poor defensive coverage or anything else is speculation. But goalie play has slipped more than the defensive breakdowns (again speaking of high danger areas).
- PT21

All that stat can really measure is quantity of shots taken that meet a certain parameter. It really overall does a poor job. All high danger chances are not the same. The quality of the shots and chances the Flyers have allowed no doubt has contributed greatly to the Flyers HDSV%. So while the rates may be comparable to seasons past, the actual quality is not comparable. We know that or at least should know that from watching the game.

In that regard, the eye test tells us more than the stats. One other intangible factor is that a goalies confidence is shaken after so many brekdowns etc and he normally stops being aggressive playing too far back into his net resulting in showing the shooter too much. Then more goals scored.. less confidence. Goalie becomes less confident in d, d less confident on goalie and it’s a downward spiral. Hard to get out of.

The right habits need to be entrenched meaning a team commitment to d. Then goalie starts to trust the d, goalie more confident.. team more confident in the goalie, more willing to take smart risks and not tentative.. and it spirals the good way. None of these aspects show in the stats but people who play or watch a lot can see it .
- Hextall271

Exactly. It's a symbiotic relationship. Very dependent on each other. Very well said All any of those stats can tell you is what happened. They cannot tell you why it's happened. That takes analysis. As we've seen in this thread. Individual analysis can be faulty. That is the fallacy of analytics.

In that regard, the eye test tells us more than the stats. One other intangible factor is that a goalies confidence is shaken after so many brekdowns etc and he normally stops being aggressive playing too far back into his net resulting in showing the shooter too much. Then more goals scored.. less confidence. Goalie becomes less confident in d, d less confident on goalie and it’s a downward spiral. Hard to get out of.

The right habits need to be entrenched meaning a team commitment to d. Then goalie starts to trust the d, goalie more confident.. team more confident in the goalie, more willing to take smart risks and not tentative.. and it spirals the good way. None of these aspects show in the stats but people who play or watch a lot can see it .
- Hextall271

100%.

Exactly. It's a symbiotic relationship. Very dependent on each other. Very well said All any of those stats can tell you is what happened. They cannot tell you why it's happened. That takes analysis. As we've seen in this thread. Individual analysis can be faulty. That is the fallacy of analytics.
- MJL

Symbiotic is the Exact right term.