I'm currently writing Lord of the Wings but I need Yzerman to win first.
- gergeswillems

A game?

Well if they are in the finals, there are only 2 teams left.
so the odds would change/be updated after each round.

but as of today, since we only know the standings of Mar 5...all options are factored into the projections
- senstroll

Yes.

Which contradicts what you said here:

I look at these numbers like this.

for example if they played each series 100 time or 1000 times or 10000 times..thats kinda how these things work, run the sims thousands of times and see how many times each wins.

Leafs win round 1 76% of the time
Leafs win round 2 57% of the time (lose 43%, feel about right with this season)
Leafs win round 3 37% of the times (lose 65%, not a great chance)
Leafs win cup 21% of the time, lose 79% (really bad odds they win)

it doesn't qualify as a 35+ contract.
- Atomic Wedgie

I think I see the loophole: He's not officially retiring. That allows Chicago to keep him on LTIR.

I think I see the loophole: He's not officially retiring. That allows Chicago to keep him on LTIR.
- Monkeypunk

Yeah, like Chris Pronger.

Yes.

Which contradicts what you said here:
- Atomic Wedgie

no it doesnt.

when he runs his sims 10k times, leafs win 21% of the time

if he has officially retired, there should be a cap recapture penalty...
- PatC80

Not when he's on long term injury with no hope of recovery in the foreseeable future.

Ya I guess, not sure why they do this. Just go to the beach and stay on LTIR until the contract is over.
- Garnie

Team commitments and stuff.

it doesn't qualify as a 35+ contract.
- Atomic Wedgie

Huh. I thought - and maybe it was only ever discussed - that there was a rule that if a long-term contract that varied in year-over-year salary was signed prior to a player turning 35, but extended beyond the time the player turned 35, it would be considered a 35+ contract.

I don't see this on any quick Google searches - it like a fairly specific set of caveats for me to remember if I made it up in my little brain.

Oh well.

Thanks!

So apparently Jake Virtanen said that the Leafs "don't like playing defence all that much" in his intermission video?

Has he watched the Leafs this year?

— Kevin Papetti (@KPapetti) March 5, 2021

So apparently Jake Virtanen said that the Leafs "don't like playing defence all that much" in his intermission video?

Has he watched the Leafs this year?

— Kevin Papetti (@KPapetti) March 5, 2021

- Archaic

I saw that interview, and I dont think he was saying it exactly that way.
he was kinds stumbling a bit for words...but I took it to mean the Leafs are a good offensive team and like to play in the O-zone instead.

which is true for any team

Chicago continues to cheat the cap system at an incredible pace. Leafs did well with Robidas Island but they have nothing on the Hawks. First they squirm out of Hossa with Jockstrapgate now this baloney. Would do a happy dance if the league hit them with penalty on this one.
- winsix

The bolts are the worst offenders this year.

They will get their best player and highest salary player for free and well-rested for the playoffs.

A game?
- bobbyisno1

That would be nice.

I saw that interview, and I dont think he was saying it exactly that way.
he was kinds stumbling a bit for words...but I took it to mean the Leafs are a good offensive team and like to play in the O-zone instead.

which is true for any team
- senstroll

except that the Leafs have been hella successful at playing in the offensive zone for the majority of play this season.

One could also say Jake Virtanen doesn't really like scoring much...

I think I see the loophole: He's not officially retiring. That allows Chicago to keep him on LTIR.
- Monkeypunk

So, as long as he doesn't officially hand in his retirement papers, they'll be fine.. I mean he can shout "I'm retired" from the rooftops but it is not actually true

except that the Leafs have been hella successful at playing in the offensive zone for the majority of play this season.

One could also say Jake Virtanen doesn't really like scoring much...
- prock

Seems to score when the opposing goalie is Michael Hutchinson

Yeah, like Chris Pronger.
- Atomic Wedgie

Hossa, Lupul, Rick Dipietro

Seems to score when the opposing goalie is Michael Hutchinson
- PatC80

Well, somehow the Leafs were playing a little more defense than they normally do last night, so I guess there are exceptions to every rule.

I'd atually like to see them go with Campbell a lot more. The whole team has looked more composed with him in net this year, even in comparison to Andersen, to me.

Well, somehow the Leafs were playing a little more defense than they normally do last night, so I guess there are exceptions to every rule.

I'd atually like to see them go with Campbell a lot more. The whole team has looked more composed with him in net this year, even in comparison to Andersen, to me.
- prock

Campbell needs to get and stay healthy so he can have that audition.

no it doesnt.

when he runs his sims 10k times, leafs win 21% of the time
- senstroll

I'm going to try this one more time:

When he runs his sims, the Leafs win the first round, the second round, the third round and the fourth round 21% of the time.

That's not the same as the Leafs having a 21% chance of winning the 4th round, should they win the first second and third round.

https://medium.com/dose/this-pint-size-bully-is-turkeys-biggest-meme-e4257ca2a008
- AdamFrench

The bolts are the worst offenders this year.

They will get their best player and highest salary player for free and well-rested for the playoffs.
- Aetherial

The league needs to step in and do something about this.

How can you not consider this to be salary cap circumvention?

Wow, Chicago has $26,313,333 on LTIR this year.
- Atomic Wedgie

seebrook and toews take 75% of that.

The bolts are the worst offenders this year.

They will get their best player and highest salary player for free and well-rested for the playoffs.
- Aetherial

Here's hoping it backfires and Kuch is 50lbs. overweight and skills have atrophied.

The league needs to step in and do something about this.

How can you not consider this to be salary cap circumvention?
- Atomic Wedgie

Hawks did it before when Patty Kane was injured. They traded for Antoine Vermette with his cap space. Kane returned for game 1 of the playoffs. Hawks won the Cup.

I'm going to try this one more time:

When he runs his sims, the Leafs win the first round, the second round, the third round and the fourth round 21% of the time.

That's not the same as the Leafs having a 21% chance of winning the 4th round, should they win the first second and third round.
- Atomic Wedgie

I addressed that already.
and I agreed

if its down to 2 teams (one being the Leafs), the Leafs would have a 45-55% (super rough guess) chance instead of 21, depending on who they met in the finals...

but that doesnt have anything to do with his model predictions as it currently stands.

yes if you went to him and said if the Leafs and Dallas are in the finals tell me what % you give the leafs...then you get a diff number...natrually