Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Goldilocks Zone
Author Message
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Mar 2 @ 12:04 PM ET
This is the point. Hockey is a team sport, and no matter how good an individual player is, he shouldn't be taking up more than, let's say 8%-9% of the cap (whatever). When you have two players getting 25% of the cap, the team suffers. And when a player insists on getting an outsized share and then team can't compete, that player should have to lie in the bed he made, not whine about winning and try to get traded.

Having a small amount of players contributing such a large percentage of the cap makes it extremely difficult, bordering on impossible, to put together a winning team. No one player is bigger than the team.

- tazer_and_diet

In theory, you have a point. In reality, its absurd to try to put a 8-9% share of the cap limit on players.

Lets suppose Rocky Wirtz comes out with a new policy after the Kane and Toews deals end and says he doesn't believe any player should be paid more than 10% of the team cap and will never sign anybody above that level. The NHLPA and every agent will take note and make sure their players steer clear of Chicago. And within a very short period of time, the Hawks will be drowning in the bottom of the standings with tickets sold attendance around where it was in the early 2000's. The NHL will hate it, the fans will hate it and Radio and TV won't want to pay more than the minimum for broadcast rights. Fans pay to see stars play and want to buy jerseys and memorabilia. They don't give a f$ck whether Ryan Carpenter or David Kampf are making something within a reasonable vicinity of stars like Kane or Crosby or McDavid.

And furthermore, all players are limited in compensation in their ELC years to about 1% of the team cap. When else are they going to make big money in a short career?
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Mar 2 @ 12:08 PM ET
the athletic had the TOP UFA out there and Damir K from KHL was one and Arvid Soderblom was 8. also there are a few NCAA players that could be UFA's. that would need to wait till august. I think both would make sense. lack of goalie depth in the ORG and teh success we have had with Euro UFA's. the knock on Damir is for his size he does not have a high end top gear and Arvid is solid in most ways but is not the most athletic goalie side to side.
- kmw4631


No NOT the Athletic...Corey Prohman...

the guy who argued Barkov wasn't in the top tier with Jones MacKinnon and Drouin,

....that Dominik Bokk was a top 5 elite player in the 2018 draft, etc.

Think about what Ecklund does top promote readership "reliable trade info."

Sweet deal Corey gets paid to run player lists rank organizations, and decide who can do what, and believe me that list is akin to drooling over each and every Hobey Baker winner until you fi d out college play and production I does not necessarily mean the team is signing a ready for prime time player.
No hate towards Pius Suter who seems smaller than Kaner but I dont think you can go by Corey's list and think you are getting a dominant game changer.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Mar 2 @ 12:17 PM ET
This is the point. Hockey is a team sport, and no matter how good an individual player is, he shouldn't be taking up more than, let's say 8%-9% of the cap (whatever). When you have two players getting 25% of the cap, the team suffers. And when a player insists on getting an outsized share and then team can't compete, that player should have to lie in the bed he made, not whine about winning and try to get traded.

Having a small amount of players contributing such a large percentage of the cap makes it extremely difficult, bordering on impossible, to put together a winning team. No one player is bigger than the team.

- tazer_and_diet


Edmonton top 3 players paid make $27 million, McDavid, Draisaitl, NugentHopkins

Tb Lightning Kucherov, Stamkos which they didn't need in the playoffs last year and Vasilevsky $27.5 million


333inthe3rd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.04.2015

Mar 2 @ 12:33 PM ET
Edmonton top 3 players paid make $27 million, McDavid, Draisaitl, NugentHopkins

Tb Lightning Kucherov, Stamkos which they didn't need in the playoffs last year and Vasilevsky $27.5 million

- BetweenTheDots


RNH is in the final year of his contract, $6 mill cap hit.

The contract of note is James Neal's, with 2 more seasons after this at a $5.75 mill annual cap hit. If they buy him out, the calculator says it's 4 years at a $1.9 mill annual cap hit.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Mar 2 @ 12:38 PM ET
Hey Theo! You mentioned Dach spent some time in RFD. Was he allowed to do a conditioning stint there after getting injured in the TC Prospects Tourney?

Can't recall, but he didn't get into any actual games there or did he?

- HawkintheD

STL answered your question. IIRC, the 3 games in Rockford was treated as a conditioning stint as you pointed out due to the Traverse City head shot he sustained by a Wild prospect.

Had he not gotten injured in that tourney, I would guess he would have be on the Hawks roster right away with no time with the Hogs. Water under the bridge now.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Mar 2 @ 12:40 PM ET
I always thought of you as more of an astrology guy...
- mohel

What if there's an astrology place called Goldilock's Zone that's also a sports bar on gamedays? Half off beers on tap and 50 cent wings during happy hour.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Mar 2 @ 12:40 PM ET
This may be a little off topic.

I love the way Hagel plays. But I hope the Hawks management, team doctors, and veteran players caution Hagel about playing physical but not being too reckless. He needs to pick his spots and protect himself. Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. Colliton, Toews, Seabs, Shaw in particular can provide counsel. They can use themselves, Bolland, Bickell and others as examples of players that played that style and it shortened their careers.
tazer_and_diet
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 10.29.2012

Mar 2 @ 12:41 PM ET
Edmonton top 3 players paid make $27 million, McDavid, Draisaitl, NugentHopkins

Tb Lightning Kucherov, Stamkos which they didn't need in the playoffs last year and Vasilevsky $27.5 million

- BetweenTheDots


You're proving my point. The 3 Lightning players are $9.5/$9.5/$8.5 million players, which are better as a group than $12.5/$8.5/and $6 million. They could afford a better third best player if their best player wasn't taking up such a big share of the cap.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Mar 2 @ 12:42 PM ET
Thank you, Theo.
Great read. It is so nice to learn of positive developments from the draft side of the ledger. With Seattle soon to add 20+ major league hockey players, there will be room for new talent league-wide. And I'm definitely ok with the 'Hawks getting the best of them!

- 35Tony0

In addition to the 5 prospects highlighted in the blog, there are many others that are developing well. They're just likely headed toward bottom 6 and 3rd pair roles. You need quality there, too.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Mar 2 @ 12:47 PM ET
You're proving my point. The 3 Lightning players are $9.5/$9.5/$8.5 million players, which are better as a group than $12.5/$8.5/and $6 million. They could afford a better third best player if their best player wasn't taking up such a big share of the cap.
- tazer_and_diet


The 3 lightning players would be getting more money if the were playing in a different state (or Canada) for that matter.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Mar 2 @ 12:48 PM ET
Great write-up Theo. I really enjoy the regular check-in with the prospects, I think the Hawks have a couple guys who could be regular contributors in the pipeline. Reichel is leading players under 21 in the DEL, by a wide margin. His progress has been excellent and lets hope it continues.

We might as well get this out of the way and start with the inevitable, Commesso will go the full 4 years at BU then sign as a free agent with the Rangers.

- DarthKane

I believe it was Elbows who made this analogy but I also liken Reichel to Teravainen as a comparable. Similar shrimpy frame as a teen but top-shelf skill.

One difference I see now that Reichel has a leg up on Teravainen at the same stage is Lukas isn't risk averse and will play in the rough areas. He's willing to take a hit to make a play and is resilient by bouncing back up to rejoin the action.

Like Teravainen, Reichel will naturally grow into his body while also gaining strength through a workout regimen designed by Goodman and crew. That added muscle will aid an already great skill set.

Reichel is also verstaile playing center right now but can play either wing position as well. He's like Kurashev in having a subtle but impactful compete level and work ethic. They always keep their legs pumping.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Mar 2 @ 12:50 PM ET
Find a way to neutralize McDavid and Draisaitl and you stop the Oilers. A weak Blackhawk team did it last season. McDavid and Draisaitl notwithstanding Edmonton are not a good hockey team. As I said yesterday I fully expect McDavid and possibly Draisaitl to ask for trades.
- paulr

When the Oiler's sieve goaltender gives up 2 early in the game its much easier to go about defending Draisaitl & McD. From there the Loafs clogged up the neutral zone and had 5 guys back because they had their own sieve in net to protect.

The Oilers are definitely not very good and in addition to their problem in goal with Koskinen, they are squeezing in 2 kids on D - Bouchard and Bear. Those guys get exposed against a team with the forwards the Leafs have.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Mar 2 @ 12:52 PM ET
OK, now is the part I would like your input. As well anyone whom has watched Kalynuk this season is welcome to chime in

Exactly in what ways does Kalynuk need to improve upon vis -a -vis defensive coverage. He is a larger size, taller and weighs (I think) more than Mitchell and Beaudin. Kalynuk is not really going to. be checking an opposing forward with body checks often but he is willing to battle in a scrum for the puck?.

Whereas Beaudin tries to use his body to impede, Kalynuk is able and willing to be more physical?

Kalynuk is an offensive mail carrier, smart, sets up and moves around on Pp. Skates well. Not necessarily above average, but pretty good in many aspects;- he has collegiate experience - originally a 2016 draft - and is close to NHL ready. That is the scuttlebut I have heard. I lack specific information as to his defensive game , though, so I will try to watch him at Rockford and look to this board for a review

He is the best puck carrier on the team already AHL - NHL.

- jhawk59

To answer your questions, Kalynuk needs to improve his strength to gain an advantage when defending down low and in the slot. Otherwise, his intelligence is high enough to know where to be and what to do.

I agree, Kalynuk could end up being the best puck carrier in the system. He protects the puck well as he cradles it in his carries. His decision making is quick and accurate. And he will rival Boqvist as the best passer from the back end.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Mar 2 @ 12:56 PM ET
Good read Theo on this next wave of prospects that are 2,3, or 4 years out. Hopefully they continue to develop at the Europe/college level, stay injury free, and be able to contribute in the NHL.

IMO the Hawks still could use another top forward and a #1 D going forward. I don't see any in the pipeline.

The way the hawks are playing so far this season, looks like their pick won't be in the top ten so there is no guarantee they find a stud in the next draft. Besides there are stories out there that the 2021 entry draft won't take place until the summer of 2022 and whoever is picked may be a year behind development.

Other ways to obtain a top forward in the coming years...

- Continue to mine the undrafted European players (hats off to their Euro scouting department BTW).

- Sign a top free agent, maybe after the Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook contracts expire and cap space is available.

- Make a trade similar to the one that brought Patrick Sharp to town. Stan tried with the Joki for Nylander trade which looks like it isn't going to pan out. Maybe he again tries wrangle some top forward prospect form another team using the young depth he is developing.

- boilermaker100

Good post. The bolded part is key to continual strengthening of the pipeline. It is recommended asset management to trade surplus for needs. The D prospect is deep but there won't be enough spots available.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Mar 2 @ 12:56 PM ET
Agree on the bolded, especially at forward. The D pipeline looks good to me; they have a good shot at 4 #2's, and that'll work.
- mohel

Having four #2's on the blueline is a good way to characterize it. I can go to war with that, too.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Mar 2 @ 12:58 PM ET
When the Oiler's sieve goaltender gives up 2 early in the game its much easier to go about defending Draisaitl & McD. From there the Loafs clogged up the neutral zone and had 5 guys back because they had their own sieve in net to protect.

The Oilers are definitely not very good and in addition to their problem in goal with Koskinen, they are squeezing in 2 kids on D - Bouchard and Bear. Those guys get exposed against a team with the forwards the Leafs have.

- RickJ


So I guess a defnsive "genius" coach like Tippett still needs the talent in order for his system to work. Who would of thunk?
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Mar 2 @ 12:58 PM ET
You're proving my point. The 3 Lightning players are $9.5/$9.5/$8.5 million players, which are better as a group than $12.5/$8.5/and $6 million. They could afford a better third best player if their best player wasn't taking up such a big share of the cap.
- tazer_and_diet


The only point I'm proving is one team knows how to draft and build a team, the other has no clue. People forget we had Campbell contract to go along with Toews and Kane. Bowman did an excellent job getting rid of that contract and bringing in very good role players via the draft or little trades, not seeing this at all in Oil country

Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Mar 2 @ 1:00 PM ET
This may be a little off topic.

I love the way Hagel plays. But I hope the Hawks management, team doctors, and veteran players caution Hagel about playing physical but not being too reckless. He needs to pick his spots and protect himself. Sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. Colliton, Toews, Seabs, Shaw in particular can provide counsel. They can use themselves, Bolland, Bickell and others as examples of players that played that style and it shortened their careers.

- -Doh-

That's been my observation with Hagel even last year when he was in Rockford. His kamikaze style could catch up to him. You love the fire in his belly but he puts himself in vulnerable positions sometimes.
tazer_and_diet
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 10.29.2012

Mar 2 @ 1:07 PM ET
In theory, you have a point. In reality, its absurd to try to put a 8-9% share of the cap limit on players.

Lets suppose Rocky Wirtz comes out with a new policy after the Kane and Toews deals end and says he doesn't believe any player should be paid more than 10% of the team cap and will never sign anybody above that level. The NHLPA and every agent will take note and make sure their players steer clear of Chicago. And within a very short period of time, the Hawks will be drowning in the bottom of the standings with tickets sold attendance around where it was in the early 2000's. The NHL will hate it, the fans will hate it and Radio and TV won't want to pay more than the minimum for broadcast rights. Fans pay to see stars play and want to buy jerseys and memorabilia. They don't give a f$ck whether Ryan Carpenter or David Kampf are making something within a reasonable vicinity of stars like Kane or Crosby or McDavid.

And furthermore, all players are limited in compensation in their ELC years to about 1% of the team cap. When else are they going to make big money in a short career?

- RickJ


Nah, that's not what would happen as the vast majority of the players in the league make less than that. Maybe the top tier stars would not come here in free agency, but those are almost always terrible contracts anyway (since the Hossa/Keith loophole was closed.) And anyone they draft would experience 4 years of the Hawks' magic in how they treat their players better than any other team.

Edit: To clarify, I am not saying they would automatically sign with the team, but the chances would be higher than taking a discount for, let's say, Ottawa.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Mar 2 @ 1:09 PM ET
So I guess a defnsive "genius" coach like Tippett still needs the talent in order for his system to work. Who would of thunk?
- LAHawk

Tippett must have gone to charm school before he came out for the post game interviews. He just said it wasn't a good thing to get down 2-0 to the Leafs early.

Others might have said something like "If I had a f'n goalie that could stop a puck we would have had a chance in this game".

he had to pull Koskinen and use Smith who was good but it was 3-0 by then.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Mar 2 @ 1:09 PM ET
Nah, that's not what would happen as the vast majority of the players in the league make less than that. Maybe the top tier stars would not come here in free agency, but those are almost always terrible contracts anyway (since the Hossa/Keith loophole was closed.) And anyone they draft would experience 4 years of the Hawks' magic in how they treat their players better than any other team.
- tazer_and_diet


Not named Kevin Hayes
snakeyes0007
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.22.2021

Mar 2 @ 1:10 PM ET
Stan Bowman's going to be around for a while if he keeps drafting like this. I know it's short-sighted to say these are all great prospects already. But the rookies on the team are playing great and with the pipeline to the show being bright, I can't see Bowman getting let go anytime soon.

I even say most of his trades are quality. Some trades his hands are tied due to salary cap issues and I think people don't realize that.

For example, getting anything for Perlini was miracle work.

The only outright egregious trade was the Nylander trade. I'm a passive follower of hockey, but there's no way Bowman couldn't have gotten a draft pick with Nylander. Henri had more NHL experience and looked better overall.
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Mar 2 @ 1:11 PM ET
No NOT the Athletic...Corey Prohman...

the guy who argued Barkov wasn't in the top tier with Jones MacKinnon and Drouin,

....that Dominik Bokk was a top 5 elite player in the 2018 draft, etc.

Think about what Ecklund does top promote readership "reliable trade info."

Sweet deal Corey gets paid to run player lists rank organizations, and decide who can do what, and believe me that list is akin to drooling over each and every Hobey Baker winner until you fi d out college play and production I does not necessarily mean the team is signing a ready for prime time player.
No hate towards Pius Suter who seems smaller than Kaner but I dont think you can go by Corey's list and think you are getting a dominant game changer.

- wiz1901


in fairness he did not say game changer he said he thought damir was a bottom 6 NHL player.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Mar 2 @ 1:11 PM ET
Tippett must have gone to charm school before he came out for the post game interviews. He just said it wasn't a good thing to get down 2-0 to the Leafs early.

Others might have said something like "If I had a f'n goalie that could stop a puck we would have had a chance in this game".

he had to pull Koskinen and use Smith who was good but it was 3-0 by then.

- RickJ


Agree, they just picked up Aaron Dell on waivers, although I don't think he is the answer either. The previous GM (Chiarelli) gave Koskinen an obscene contract, and Holland is still paying for it.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Mar 2 @ 1:20 PM ET
Agree, they just picked up Aaron Dell on waivers, although I don't think he is the answer either. The previous GM (Chiarelli) gave Koskinen an obscene contract, and Holland is still paying for it.
- LAHawk

It was Alex Stalok they picked up on waivers. Not likely the answer but can't be worse than Koskinen.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next