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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: A Jarry disappointing loss
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j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Feb 7 @ 3:28 PM ET
I was just being a smartass and I agree.
- Rinosaur


Fleury is also 4-0 lol so he might be the starter? I honestly don't even know haha. But Lehner has what... 5m cap hit? Where the (frank) do they get salary cap numbers from? I feel like they have a different ceiling over there lol
668710
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: "Give him a chance" -Barnaby36, PA
Joined: 06.25.2011

Feb 7 @ 3:29 PM ET
Just thinking out loud, but I can’t even imagine the Pens can find a way to have Seattle select Matheson.
- Rinosaur

"You guys need a pp QB!" Lol
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Feb 7 @ 3:30 PM ET
More like tandem money goalie than backup. Basically we would all be way more pissed if Jarry was making 5-7mil haha.
- 668710



Oh I completely agree, I definitely don't think signing Jarry was a bad move, I do think that maybe the cap hit could have been down a bit.. maybe 2.5-2.75 but that is a marginal difference. The roster in general is a bunch of vomit.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Feb 7 @ 3:35 PM ET
Fleury is also 4-0 lol so he might be the starter? I honestly don't even know haha. But Lehner has what... 5m cap hit? Where the (frank) do they get salary cap numbers from? I feel like they have a different ceiling over there lol
- j.boyd919


I don’t get how they’re making it work.

I’m open to moving Jarry if they can bring in an upgrade, but I don’t know it makes a difference with all the other glaring issues.
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Feb 7 @ 3:36 PM ET
Oh I completely agree, I definitely don't think signing Jarry was a bad move, I do think that maybe the cap hit could have been down a bit.. maybe 2.5-2.75 but that is a marginal difference. The roster in general is a bunch of vomit.
- j.boyd919


Overpayments and bad contracts like that add up though. Look at the first goal last night. Yeah O’Connor should of put the puck deep but a mistake at the blue line doesn’t result in a goal against. Now no pressure in the neutral zone, poor d play by ceci, jarry maybe cheating a bit away from the post thinking he’s gonna cut to the middle, and 4 or 5 total mistakes and you have a goal against.

A litany of poor defensive contracts, trades, overpayments, trades to fix trades, bad signings, and now you have this situation. Every team has some but endless little mistakes from an over eager gm do a lot of damage.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Feb 7 @ 3:36 PM ET
"You guys need a pp QB!" Lol
- 668710


To rehash our favorite buzzword, the Pens would need to add serious sweetener.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Feb 7 @ 3:40 PM ET
I think the first move they need make is canning Sullivan. Any moves IMO are useless if the system they play doesn’t change. I wouldn’t even make any major moves this year. Let the new coach see what he can do with this roster and reevaluate in the off season. I believe the right moves with the right coach can still extend this window another year or two.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Feb 7 @ 3:50 PM ET
How about Matheson + for Stepan?

Edit, nevermind. I thought Stepan had a few years left on his deal. He's been a healthy scratch and wants out of Ottawa
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Feb 7 @ 4:01 PM ET
Overpayments and bad contracts like that add up though. Look at the first goal last night. Yeah O’Connor should of put the puck deep but a mistake at the blue line doesn’t result in a goal against. Now no pressure in the neutral zone, poor d play by ceci, jarry maybe cheating a bit away from the post thinking he’s gonna cut to the middle, and 4 or 5 total mistakes and you have a goal against.

A litany of poor defensive contracts, trades, overpayments, trades to fix trades, bad signings, and now you have this situation. Every team has some but endless little mistakes from an over eager gm do a lot of damage.

- 10inchTerror


Every team has 5 or so million of dogcrap contracts though. Maybe ours is Matheson

We just don't have the guys on their ELC's to offset the odd overpay

Zucker is a good player but does he move the needle at 5.25? Petterson has potential but is he at 4 Million way better than a guy you can get for 2? Is Payday Marino for real or is he Maatta 2.0?

Our only underpay right now is probably Rust, Crosby at 8.7 and Geno at 9.5 aren't steals anymore. We are paying retail for our "Generational Stars" at this point. Our 7.25 Million bonafide #1 defenseman has 4 points in 10 games and is still a turnover machine
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Feb 7 @ 4:08 PM ET
Maybe not "Backup Money" but at least "2nd goalie in a 2 goalie system" money. When the other guy in the "system" is making 1.25 Million, we have definitely gambled on our goaltending "on the cheap"
- TheGame316

Yeah that would have been a better way to put it.

Jarry's cap hit is 28th. Low for starter but only a handful of back-ups make more.

You go down to 2.5M, you are at 40 goalies with Halak pretty close (and really he took a discount). That doesn't include 5 young goalies who are their team's starters but haven't gotten that contract yet.

So if 2.5M is the line for a good back-up and you're paying your starter 3.5M and buying his 1st year of UFA status, it's not expensive. Some salaries got a little lower after teams reckoned with the cap, but those young starters under 3M will mostly be RFAs so the teams retain control.

If Jarry was their guy, Pens didn't have that luxury because of his age. 2 year deal for less like he's compared to walks him onto UFA. They could have pushed him on a 1 year deal, but if he was good, you'd be paying more next year.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Feb 7 @ 4:13 PM ET
Might be time to consider that Sid (and especially Geno) aren't star players anymore

Happens to the best of them. Yzerman towards the end wasn't carrying those RedWings teams to those cups. It was Fedorov, Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Lidstrom, paired with a defense first system

We're 11 games in and Sid doesn't have a 5v5 goal? Sure, he's had a revolving door at wing, but isn't he out there exclusively with Guentzel and Letang at the least?

Not saying he's not good, not saying he still can't be great, and we can b1tch about the 3rd and 4th lines all we want, but Sid still plays with the best players on the team, which is as good as the best players on other teams (theoretically) and his point production is on pace with guys who I do not consider "generational talents"

bUt gMjR mAdE bAd mOvEs!

You can't tie up 25 Million in players (Sid, Geno, Letang) and have those guys not be able to carry your team. You can also not complain about having not enough ELC talent to balance the roster while also saying we need to "go all in" and use our picks to load the roster every trade deadline while the "window" was still open

The time to rebuild (or mini rebuild) was right after the second cup, meaning no attempt at 3peat. This of course is hindsight

Kessel would have had tremendous trade value in that moment, So did Murray, Hagelin probably did. Schultz probably did, and a few others. Keep MAF, Bones, a couple of others, maybe sign some free agents and stay respectable. Be sellers at the deadlines for a few years and retain our own picks. It would have looked a lot like "The Patriot Way" We'd have a lot of fresh youth in the pipeline right now for the Sid/Geno golden years, and with those guys on ELC's, we'd have money for some FA's

There is no combo of single trades of moves that could be undone to take us from where we are to being an elite team. This team is not a Hornqvist, or a "Don't sign JJ" or "Shoulda kept Oleksiak" a keep the 2020/2021 1sts and don't trade for Zucker/Kapanen from being a real contender, not now and not in the next few years

/rant

- TheGame316

I agree the stars may be aging out of being able to carry the team. But that's why the odds were better pushing in the past couple years then going for a retool. I'd say the problem was more about the moves they made in that time. Now, a well executed mini-rebuild still is likely too late. Because as you said, this team has bigger issues than a weak bottom 6.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Feb 7 @ 4:16 PM ET
I agree the stars may be aging out of being able to carry the team. But that's why the odds were better pushing in the past couple years then going for a retool. I'd say the problem was more about the moves they made in that time. Now, a well executed mini-rebuild still is likely too late. Because as you said, this team has bigger issues than a weak bottom 6.
- Tojo.


Yup. GMJR's moves took the Pens backwards after that last cup.
pghbirdman
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 02.27.2007

Feb 7 @ 4:18 PM ET
At least we are not paying Murray for his production.

This team has not been put together properly. Bad cap management and lots of the same 4th line type of forwards. The same could probably be the same about the defensive core too. What a log jam when the team gets healthy.

It’s going to be the year of floating around .500. That’s not being negative, it’s the reality.

We should celebrate the past and admit that the presently constructed team is what it is. Nothing but a middle of the pack team with two middle aged superstars.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Feb 7 @ 4:25 PM ET
The comparables I'd use for Jarry are Blackwood, Korpisalo, and Merzlikens.

Korpisalo is the best comparable. Made the all-star game and lost his job near the end. He got 2.8M for 2 years, and is a UFA after. Pens probably could have done that with Jarry if they shaved a year.

Merzlikens got 4M for 2 years as another small sample size goalie. He will also walk into UFA, so Columbus got a worse hit.

Blackwood got 2.8 M for 3 years and had a slightly better though not much resume then Jarry. Difference is he's younger and will still be a RFA after his deal so they didn't buy any UFA years.

I shouldn't have said back-up money, but I don't see Jarry's deal being poor for those terms unless I'm missing someone.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Feb 7 @ 5:03 PM ET
The comparables I'd use for Jarry are Blackwood, Korpisalo, and Merzlikens.

Korpisalo is the best comparable. Made the all-star game and lost his job near the end. He got 2.8M for 2 years, and is a UFA after. Pens probably could have done that with Jarry if they shaved a year.

Merzlikens got 4M for 2 years as another small sample size goalie. He will also walk into UFA, so Columbus got a worse hit.

Blackwood got 2.8 M for 3 years and had a slightly better though not much resume then Jarry. Difference is he's younger and will still be a RFA after his deal so they didn't buy any UFA years.

I shouldn't have said back-up money, but I don't see Jarry's deal being poor for those terms unless I'm missing someone.

- Tojo.


Yeah I don't really think it was that bad of a deal. The rest of the roster construction has been questionable for quite some time though.
123Kid
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: PA
Joined: 07.03.2017

Feb 7 @ 5:19 PM ET
I agree the stars may be aging out of being able to carry the team. But that's why the odds were better pushing in the past couple years then going for a retool. I'd say the problem was more about the moves they made in that time. Now, a well executed mini-rebuild still is likely too late. Because as you said, this team has bigger issues than a weak bottom 6.
- Tojo.


Idk Tojo. I think this past offseason and even this offseason may be the best options for a mini rebuild.

We have some talented kids in WBS right now. Poulin and Legare are both looking like solid players. POJ and Riikola could man the 2nd and 3rd pairing left side role and they are younger talent.

I think there are quite a few options for a 2nd/3rd line center options and top 4 pairing RHD in this year's free agent market. Which would potentially allow us to move out a few players. I think they should build around Crosby.

Or make a Russian bombers line like I use to on most video games with Oveckin - Malkin - Gusev.

I do think it would be the off-season to move Malkin, Letang, Pettersson, and Matheson (expansion draft) and revamp our whole Defense plus potentially save a lot of money.
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Feb 7 @ 5:37 PM ET
Crosby, Letang, Tanev, Blueger, Ruhwedel, Guentzel safe. Trade everyone else for draft picks and prospects and rebuild.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Feb 7 @ 5:58 PM ET
Yeah I don't really think it was that bad of a deal. The rest of the roster construction has been questionable for quite some time though.
- j.boyd919

I agree on that. Was really responding to the blog. It's easy to point at Korpisalo and Blackwood and say that's what Jarry should make, they just went a different route. And since they gambled the season on him anyways, makes sense to gamble he'd have a good year.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Feb 7 @ 6:09 PM ET
Idk Tojo. I think this past offseason and even this offseason may be the best options for a mini rebuild.

We have some talented kids in WBS right now. Poulin and Legare are both looking like solid players. POJ and Riikola could man the 2nd and 3rd pairing left side role and they are younger talent.

I think there are quite a few options for a 2nd/3rd line center options and top 4 pairing RHD in this year's free agent market. Which would potentially allow us to move out a few players. I think they should build around Crosby.

Or make a Russian bombers line like I use to on most video games with Oveckin - Malkin - Gusev.

I do think it would be the off-season to move Malkin, Letang, Pettersson, and Matheson (expansion draft) and revamp our whole Defense plus potentially save a lot of money.

- 123Kid


I feel Crosby still has 6 years left, barring injury of good hockey left. Generational Player level is just about over. I could also see him taking bargain basement contracts in his 36-39 years *IF* the team is realistically competitive where he plays the 2C solid defensively Yzerman role. If you burned it down now, you could have an entirely different roster in his age 36 year. Right now we are banking on getting unbelievably hot at the exact (playoff) time or having Jarry, DeSmith, or some random 3rd stringer going GOD MODE in the playoffs and riding them all the way

The thing I hate the most about our defense is its 28 million and it isn't any good. I'll gladly pay 8,9 or 10 Million for a 1D that does it all. Letang isn't that guy, I don't care what anyone says. I want 28 minutes, PP QB, A "shutdown the teams top line" defenseman. All we're getting is the 28 minutes and the turnovers. If Letang is "a steal" at 7.25, Then I'd like to see the long list of suitors and what they'd give up, I'll even take back a bad contract if the return is more
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Feb 7 @ 6:11 PM ET
Idk Tojo. I think this past offseason and even this offseason may be the best options for a mini rebuild.

We have some talented kids in WBS right now. Poulin and Legare are both looking like solid players. POJ and Riikola could man the 2nd and 3rd pairing left side role and they are younger talent.

I think there are quite a few options for a 2nd/3rd line center options and top 4 pairing RHD in this year's free agent market. Which would potentially allow us to move out a few players. I think they should build around Crosby.

Or make a Russian bombers line like I use to on most video games with Oveckin - Malkin - Gusev.

I do think it would be the off-season to move Malkin, Letang, Pettersson, and Matheson (expansion draft) and revamp our whole Defense plus potentially save a lot of money.

- 123Kid

If they moved Malkin, I guess I could see it. I just don't think they'll move Malkin. And truthfully, I would like to see him retire as a Pen.

The problem is it's about time to move on from some supporting guys as well. Dumoulin might be in that category. Rust only has this year and next and then you have to sign him to a bad deal to keep him. Zucker same situation just one more year. There really isn't much to rebuild around.

I do agree last year or this coming one is the best time to sell assets, I just don't think they can pry this window open anymore. If I did a retool around Sid, it would just be Jake, Marino, POJ. Maybes for Kapanen, Pettersson, and Blueger. Not sure what we have yet in Poulin and Legare.

I'd say the question is one more run next year or do a full rebuild this off-season when you still have Rust and potentially Letang as rentals and Zucker and Dumoulin have multiple years.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Feb 7 @ 6:30 PM ET
If they moved Malkin, I guess I could see it. I just don't think they'll move Malkin. And truthfully, I would like to see him retire as a Pen.

The problem is it's about time to move on from some supporting guys as well. Dumoulin might be in that category. Rust only has this year and next and then you have to sign him to a bad deal to keep him. Zucker same situation just one more year. There really isn't much to rebuild around.

I do agree last year or this coming one is the best time to sell assets, I just don't think they can pry this window open anymore. If I did a retool around Sid, it would just be Jake, Marino, POJ. Maybes for Kapanen, Pettersson, and Blueger. Not sure what we have yet in Poulin and Legare.

I'd say the question is one more run next year or do a full rebuild this off-season when you still have Rust and potentially Letang as rentals and Zucker and Dumoulin have multiple years.

- Tojo.


Purely theoretical, but if you could the around the NMC's

This year:

Trade Malkin with 50% retained for ?? plus a bad contract in it's last year
Trade Letang with 50% retained for ?? plus a bad contract in it's last year
Trade Rust in a hockey trade for picks and a younger cost controlled piece

Offseason

Trade Zucker
Trade Dumoulin
You have room to retain on one more trade
You'd have a bunch of capspace to bring in some new players in what could be a down market

The lousy part about the Zucker trade is if we could do this and bottom out this year, we wouldn't benefit from the pick
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Feb 7 @ 6:52 PM ET
Won my HBSL. 2-2 now. Just put together next week's lineup and really had to navigate this since COL, BUF and NJ are down...

LW: Marchand, Connor, Tkachuk, Kaprizov
C: McD, Draisaitl, Toffoli, Suzuki
RW: Svechnikov, Ehlers, Garland, Boeser
D: Petry, Theodore, Nurse, Fox, Hughes, Forbort
G: Binnington, Korpisalo

Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Feb 7 @ 7:33 PM ET
Purely theoretical, but if you could the around the NMC's

This year:

Trade Malkin with 50% retained for ?? plus a bad contract in it's last year
Trade Letang with 50% retained for ?? plus a bad contract in it's last year
Trade Rust in a hockey trade for picks and a younger cost controlled piece

Offseason

Trade Zucker
Trade Dumoulin
You have room to retain on one more trade
You'd have a bunch of capspace to bring in some new players in what could be a down market

The lousy part about the Zucker trade is if we could do this and bottom out this year, we wouldn't benefit from the pick

- TheGame316

I'd personally still stay the course this year so long as they stay in the playoff race. I wouldn't go for a costly rental though.

The problem I see is in all those trades you most likely get worse in the short-term and hope it works out long-term. Rebuilding in free agency doesn't work, you should only use it to patch some final holes, and with all those guys gone this ship is swiss cheese.

If they go full rebuild, and we set aside loyalty to Malkin and Letang which at least for Malkin I don't and more importantly Lemieux won't, everyone on the roster besides Crosby, Marino, and POJ is fair game. Some guys like Pettersson, McCann, Blueger may be able to stick around for a bit, but even some younger guys like Kapanen and Guentzel might be worth looking at the return. I mean if you're going to blow it up, go big.

But that's me. I don't think you can turn this around in 2-3 years. Need too many pieces including a #1 center, a top 4 RHD, a PP QB (yes could get both with one), 1 or 2 top 6 wings, most of your bottom 6, and a starting goalie. Some of those are pretty hard to get without drafting them.
123Kid
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: PA
Joined: 07.03.2017

Feb 7 @ 7:34 PM ET
Purely theoretical, but if you could the around the NMC's

This year:

Trade Malkin with 50% retained for ?? plus a bad contract in it's last year
Trade Letang with 50% retained for ?? plus a bad contract in it's last year
Trade Rust in a hockey trade for picks and a younger cost controlled piece

Offseason

Trade Zucker
Trade Dumoulin
You have room to retain on one more trade
You'd have a bunch of capspace to bring in some new players in what could be a down market

The lousy part about the Zucker trade is if we could do this and bottom out this year, we wouldn't benefit from the pick

- TheGame316



I don't think we would have to retain salary in either deal for Letang or Malkin.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Feb 7 @ 7:52 PM ET
I don't think we would have to retain salary in either deal for Letang or Malkin.
- 123Kid


I'm just sayin you get more return if you do, and they'd fit into more teams cap plans
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