Location: This world is just a veil and the face you wear is not your own., ON Joined: 07.06.2007
Jan 21 @ 12:16 PM ET
One of the problems that we face in evaluating goalies is that save percentage may not be fair given the factors surrounding the shots or the quality of the shots. So we have advanced stats, which give us High Danger chances, Medium Danger chances, and Low Danger chances.
That's still not good enough. I watched the Leafs pop about 5 "High Danger" chances at Hellebuyck on Monday that had less than 1% chance of going in the net. Hellebuyck is down, covering the bottom of the net completely, his defensemen are swarming the opposing forwards preventing them lifting the puck or even forcefully propelling the puck at the net making life relatively easy for Hellebuyck.
Last year we would watch opposition forwards streak down the wing, the defense collapsing to the middle whether it was an odd-man rush or not, and let the shooter take their time and rifle the puck from "Medium Danger" territory. Those shots have a much higher chance of beating any goalie than the aforementioned example of 5 High Danger shots.
Now, as much as I like stats and numbers and other nerdy things, in deference to your point - we will know if Andersen is rebounding in his play simply by watching. The problem is that there are those who want to blame the goalie for every goal that goes in, and there are those who think goaltending is hard enough, and the goalie's job is to stop a reasonable chance. The first group have an unrealistic expectation of what a goalie should stop, and the second group have an unrealistic expectation of what a goalie shouldn't stop. You also have Max, but he's not a group.
We'll know that Freddie is back on his game when both sides (and for the record I know I'm in the first group) shut up about it and we suddenly find we aren't talking about it. We weren't talking about whether he was any good for the first 2 years other than to argue with Max. - Monkeypunk
I agree with everything except for the possibility that both sides will shut up about it. Vezina Freddie or Zamboni Freddie will engender the same raging debates.
One of the problems that we face in evaluating goalies is that save percentage may not be fair given the factors surrounding the shots or the quality of the shots. So we have advanced stats, which give us High Danger chances, Medium Danger chances, and Low Danger chances.
That's still not good enough. I watched the Leafs pop about 5 "High Danger" chances at Hellebuyck on Monday that had less than 1% chance of going in the net. Hellebuyck is down, covering the bottom of the net completely, his defensemen are swarming the opposing forwards preventing them lifting the puck or even forcefully propelling the puck at the net making life relatively easy for Hellebuyck.
Last year we would watch opposition forwards streak down the wing, the defense collapsing to the middle whether it was an odd-man rush or not, and let the shooter take their time and rifle the puck from "Medium Danger" territory. Those shots have a much higher chance of beating any goalie than the aforementioned example of 5 High Danger shots.
Now, as much as I like stats and numbers and other nerdy things, in deference to your point - we will know if Andersen is rebounding in his play simply by watching. The problem is that there are those who want to blame the goalie for every goal that goes in, and there are those who think goaltending is hard enough, and the goalie's job is to stop a reasonable chance. The first group have an unrealistic expectation of what a goalie should stop, and the second group have an unrealistic expectation of what a goalie shouldn't stop. You also have Max, but he's not a group.
We'll know that Freddie is back on his game when both sides (and for the record I know I'm in the first group) shut up about it and we suddenly find we aren't talking about it. We weren't talking about whether he was any good for the first 2 years other than to argue with Max. - Monkeypunk
I agree, anyone who says Freddy wasn't good his first 3 years here are dumb, anyone who is saying Freddy has not been bad the last year are dumb.
Freddy is probably somewhere in the middle considering his regression and age, which is good enough to win with but there absolutely will be a search for a new goalie.
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON Joined: 08.02.2006
Jan 21 @ 12:39 PM ET
Small observations I have made after the OTT loss...
Bogosian is a good fit on the 3rd pairing.
Lehtonen is a good puck distributer on the PP, should be 2nd PP every game.
Dermott is that friend in high school that just stopped growing in grade 9 and went from tops in the class in sports, to the bottom.
Mikheyev is a line driver. - Santo_44
I've liked dermott. No mistakes, lots of blocks. Nothing fancy, looks like trying to play simple game.
To me bogo has been much worse. He's here to play physical (still waiting to see it), block shots (hes missed a bunch and one he committed to early and then got danced and they scored). He's supposed to be a guy playing in his own Zone but I haven't been impressed with what he's done and he's had two bad penalties (scored on one) and a terrible pinch that got scored on as well.
Location: Henry Hudson's Fairchild 24 South Porcupine Joined: 04.03.2016
Jan 21 @ 12:47 PM ET
I've liked dermott. No mistakes, lots of blocks. Nothing fancy, looks like trying to play simple game.
To me bogo has been much worse. He's here to play physical (still waiting to see it), block shots (hes missed a bunch and one he committed to early and then got danced and they scored). He's supposed to be a guy playing in his own Zone but I haven't been impressed with what he's done and he's had two bad penalties (scored on one) and a terrible pinch that got scored on as well. - burn
Hard to beat the Oilers when you only score once on one of the worst defensive teams around. The sixth or seventh d-man is not going to significantly affect the outcome. The bullsh!t penalty on Muzzin wasn't the reason that Leafs lost either. Offense is looking for the perfect goal, ugly goals count, get the puck to the net instead of skating around the perimiter.
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON Joined: 09.20.2010
Jan 21 @ 12:53 PM ET
After 5 games
Leafs vs league average
GP 5 vs 4
GA 15 vs 11
GF 15 vs 11
Pts% .600 vs .569
PPO - 16 vs 13
PPOA - 20 vs 13
PK - 80% vs 79.25
S- 161 vs 109
S% 9.3 vs 9.7
SA - 125 - 109
Team Sv% .880 vs .903
PPG - 6 vs 3
