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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs vs. Oilers, Prospect Rankings - #12
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Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:02 AM ET
So legitimate question...

In the event this trend continues and the shots against are among the leagues best, can Fred's poor SV% still be blamed on the defence by all those who take criticism of the goaltender so personally?

Asking for a friend.

*disclaimer* I don't in any way blame Andersen for the loss last night. Talking big picture here...

- joel878



One of the problems that we face in evaluating goalies is that save percentage may not be fair given the factors surrounding the shots or the quality of the shots. So we have advanced stats, which give us High Danger chances, Medium Danger chances, and Low Danger chances.

That's still not good enough. I watched the Leafs pop about 5 "High Danger" chances at Hellebuyck on Monday that had less than 1% chance of going in the net. Hellebuyck is down, covering the bottom of the net completely, his defensemen are swarming the opposing forwards preventing them lifting the puck or even forcefully propelling the puck at the net making life relatively easy for Hellebuyck.

Last year we would watch opposition forwards streak down the wing, the defense collapsing to the middle whether it was an odd-man rush or not, and let the shooter take their time and rifle the puck from "Medium Danger" territory. Those shots have a much higher chance of beating any goalie than the aforementioned example of 5 High Danger shots.

Now, as much as I like stats and numbers and other nerdy things, in deference to your point - we will know if Andersen is rebounding in his play simply by watching. The problem is that there are those who want to blame the goalie for every goal that goes in, and there are those who think goaltending is hard enough, and the goalie's job is to stop a reasonable chance. The first group have an unrealistic expectation of what a goalie should stop, and the second group have an unrealistic expectation of what a goalie shouldn't stop. You also have Max, but he's not a group.

We'll know that Freddie is back on his game when both sides (and for the record I know I'm in the first group) shut up about it and we suddenly find we aren't talking about it. We weren't talking about whether he was any good for the first 2 years other than to argue with Max.
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:04 AM ET
My lord...is it a desert, or a side dish, or a dinner/lunch?
And what’s with all of the double up letters in your language?

- Woderwick


It's a dinner or lunch. The salty/savory of the rice and meat filling, the sweet of the cabbage with syrup, the tart of the jam. Add pepper for spice.

Lingonberry jam isn't primarily a dessert thing... it goes with cabbage rolls and ham and things like that. You get it when you order meatballs at Ikea.

The double consonants denote a sort of pause or extending of the consonant sound. Double vowels extend how long you say the vowel. Entirely phonetic language.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 21 @ 11:06 AM ET
Machiavelli very rightly pointed out that you must have the will to take advantage of lady luck.

Leafs were fortunate last night that McDavid and Draisaitl didn't go full Hart but failed to take advantage.

- TheMussel



I don't know if I'd say fortunate.. Muzzin/Holl did a really good job against McDavid. At 5on5, Draisaitl and McDavid were not on the same line.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Jan 21 @ 11:08 AM ET
It's a dinner or lunch. The salty/savory of the rice and meat filling, the sweet of the cabbage, the tart of the jam. Add pepper for spice.

Lingonberry jam isn't a dessert thing... it goes with cabbage rolls and ham and things like that. You get it when you order meatballs at Ikea.

The double consonants denote a sort of pause or extending of the consonant sound.

- TheMussel

Cabbage rolls
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 21 @ 11:09 AM ET
One of the problems that we face in evaluating goalies is that save percentage may not be fair given the factors surrounding the shots or the quality of the shots. So we have advanced stats, which give us High Danger chances, Medium Danger chances, and Low Danger chances.

That's still not good enough. I watched the Leafs pop about 5 "High Danger" chances at Hellebuyck on Monday that had less than 1% chance of going in the net. Hellebuyck is down, covering the bottom of the net completely, his defensemen are swarming the opposing forwards preventing them lifting the puck or even forcefully propelling the puck at the net making life relatively easy for Hellebuyck.

Last year we would watch opposition forwards streak down the wing, the defense collapsing to the middle whether it was an odd-man rush or not, and let the shooter take their time and rifle the puck from "Medium Danger" territory. Those shots have a much higher chance of beating any goalie than the aforementioned example of 5 High Danger shots.

Now, as much as I like stats and numbers and other nerdy things, in deference to your point - we will know if Andersen is rebounding in his play simply by watching. The problem is that there are those who want to blame the goalie for every goal that goes in, and there are those who think goaltending is hard enough, and the goalie's job is to stop a reasonable chance. The first group have an unrealistic expectation of what a goalie should stop, and the second group have an unrealistic expectation of what a goalie shouldn't stop. You also have Max, but he's not a group.

We'll know that Freddie is back on his game when both sides (and for the record I know I'm in the first group) shut up about it and we suddenly find we aren't talking about it. We weren't talking about whether he was any good for the first 2 years other than to argue with Max.

- Monkeypunk


I don't blame Andersen for last nights loss and I've been pretty critical of him.. Last night, just seemed like all the bounces/calls went the Oilers way..
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 21 @ 11:14 AM ET
It's a dinner or lunch. The salty/savory of the rice and meat filling, the sweet of the cabbage with syrup, the tart of the jam. Add pepper for spice.

Lingonberry jam isn't primarily a dessert thing... it goes with cabbage rolls and ham and things like that. You get it when you order meatballs at Ikea.

The double consonants denote a sort of pause or extending of the consonant sound. Double vowels extend how long you say the vowel.

- TheMussel



Thaaaaanks for the exxplanaaationn
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:16 AM ET
Thaaaaanks for the exxplanaaationn
- PatC80


The boston accent, very good
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:22 AM ET
I don't blame Andersen for last nights loss and I've been pretty critical of him.. Last night, just seemed like all the bounces/calls went the Oilers way..
- PatC80


There's nothing you can do on that first goal. It just, unfortunately, was meant to be. I heard people female doging about Muzzin. That is entirely Jimmy Vesey making a panic play. The fact that it didn't ricochet in at rocket speed makes it look worse, but there's a puck sized hole at the far post, and the puck found it. That one sucks.

The second goal . . . I mean. I don't blame him at all. It's a power play. It's a rebound goal. It's Draisaitl. My first thought was that he blockered the puck away and didn't follow it up with body position, so there's a slight delay in response there while he follows the puck visually before reacting physically - but in real-time, even if he moves faster, I'm not sure there's much he could have done. Maybe blockered it to a better spot, but . . .

The third goal. He wasn't even in his net. What an bumhole.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jan 21 @ 11:22 AM ET
When I look at the gross incompetence of MLSEL's management of the Leafs for the past 50 years, I'm comforted by one thought:

It wasn't as bad as the City of Toronto's transit planning.
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:23 AM ET
When I look at the gross incompetence of MLSEL's management of the Leafs for the past 50 years, I'm comforted by one thought:

It wasn't as bad as the City of Toronto's transit planning.

- Atomic Wedgie


It's sort of like raising the minimum wage.

They let it go for so long that any realistic alleviation of the problem requires a ton of short term pain.

Or flying cars.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jan 21 @ 11:25 AM ET
There's nothing you can do on that first goal. It just, unfortunately, was meant to be. I heard people female doging about Muzzin. That is entirely Jimmy Vesey making a panic play. The fact that it didn't ricochet in at rocket speed makes it look worse, but there's a puck sized hole at the far post, and the puck found it. That one sucks.

The second goal . . . I mean. I don't blame him at all. It's a power play. It's a rebound goal. It's Draisaitl. My first thought was that he blockered the puck away and didn't follow it up with body position, so there's a slight delay in response there while he follows the puck visually before reacting physically - but in real-time, even if he moves faster, I'm not sure there's much he could have done. Maybe blockered it to a better spot, but . . .

The third goal. He wasn't even in his net. What an bumhole.

- Monkeypunk

See my post of 10:24 am.

He gets the puck at the top right corner of the crease (from goalie's perspective). He decides to shoot it into the left corner? Why? For the love of God, why?
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Jan 21 @ 11:26 AM ET
There's nothing you can do on that first goal. It just, unfortunately, was meant to be. I heard people female doging about Muzzin. That is entirely Jimmy Vesey making a panic play. The fact that it didn't ricochet in at rocket speed makes it look worse, but there's a puck sized hole at the far post, and the puck found it. That one sucks.

The second goal . . . I mean. I don't blame him at all. It's a power play. It's a rebound goal. It's Draisaitl. My first thought was that he blockered the puck away and didn't follow it up with body position, so there's a slight delay in response there while he follows the puck visually before reacting physically - but in real-time, even if he moves faster, I'm not sure there's much he could have done. Maybe blockered it to a better spot, but . . .

The third goal. He wasn't even in his net. What an bumhole.

- Monkeypunk



It hit a skate and went direct to draisaitl, not a rebound.


Woderwick
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: David Clarkson's Water Bottle, ON
Joined: 02.12.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:26 AM ET
It's a dinner or lunch. The salty/savory of the rice and meat filling, the sweet of the cabbage with syrup, the tart of the jam. Add pepper for spice.

Lingonberry jam isn't primarily a dessert thing... it goes with cabbage rolls and ham and things like that. You get it when you order meatballs at Ikea.

The double consonants denote a sort of pause or extending of the consonant sound. Double vowels extend how long you say the vowel. Entirely phonetic language.

- TheMussel

Nice, on all fronts. English language could take a few tips.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jan 21 @ 11:28 AM ET
There's nothing you can do on that first goal. It just, unfortunately, was meant to be. I heard people female doging about Muzzin. That is entirely Jimmy Vesey making a panic play. The fact that it didn't ricochet in at rocket speed makes it look worse, but there's a puck sized hole at the far post, and the puck found it. That one sucks.

The second goal . . . I mean. I don't blame him at all. It's a power play. It's a rebound goal. It's Draisaitl. My first thought was that he blockered the puck away and didn't follow it up with body position, so there's a slight delay in response there while he follows the puck visually before reacting physically - but in real-time, even if he moves faster, I'm not sure there's much he could have done. Maybe blockered it to a better spot, but . . .

The third goal. He wasn't even in his net. What an bumhole.

- Monkeypunk


It was a bit disappointing, because it felt like we didn't need to Andersen to play at a high level to win.. Hopefully, tomorrow is a better result.. At the very least, we should see some make up calls in our favour. That call on Marner and the call on Muzzin were so, so bad.
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:28 AM ET
Nice, on all fronts. English language could take a few tips.
- Woderwick


You say that, but it's also agglutinative language so you end up with words like

Lentokonesuihkuturbiinimoottoriapumekaanikkoaliupseerioppilas

pick your poison
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:31 AM ET
It hit a skate and went direct to draisaitl, not a rebound.
- burn


Did it? I'll have to watch again. I won't lie - last night was a cluster^*#^ for me. I had a poker game. We were doing our (late) hockey draft, and I was trying to watch the game. I thought the shot came in from the left side, he blockered it off to the right and followed it with his eyes without moving the body and then Draisaitl popped it in. If it went off a skate, I will add further apologies to Freddy, but that's not letting him off the hook for the third goal.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jan 21 @ 11:32 AM ET
It's sort of like raising the minimum wage.

They let it go for so long that any realistic alleviation of the problem requires a ton of short term pain.

Or flying cars.

- TheMussel

I would love a little more short-term pain.

The only pain I'm experiencing right now (outside of construction on Eglinton, which I am NOT complaining about) is the pain of me banging my head against the wall as I listen to politicians from all three levels of government make asinine decisions based upon garnering votes, instead of to build "world-class" transit.

But hey, I can't wait to spend $5 billion to build 3 extra stops on the Scarborough line - doesn't matter that nobody will use it, and it will actually slow transit times compared to the existing LRT.

And "Smart Track" is now 5 stations (down from the promised 15) - but here's the kicker: Because Tory promoted it as "TTC stops", the City of Toronto will have to pay for stops on the existing GO (Ontario owned and operated) line. The City will pay for construction, and the Province will own them.
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:35 AM ET
I would love a little more short-term pain.

The only pain I'm experiencing right now (outside of construction on Eglinton, which I am NOT complaining about) is the pain of me banging my head against the wall as I listen to politicians from all three levels of government make asinine decisions based upon garnering votes, instead of to build "world-class" transit.

But hey, I can't wait to spend $5 billion to build 3 extra stops on the Scarborough line - doesn't matter that nobody will use it, and it will actually slow transit times compared to the existing LRT.

And "Smart Track" is now 5 stations (down from the promised 15) - but here's the kicker: Because Tory promoted it as "TTC stops", the City of Toronto will have to pay for stops on the existing GO (Ontario owned and operated) line. The City will pay for construction, and the Province will own them.

- Atomic Wedgie


Coulda used that Scarborough extension 20 years ago before I could afford a car.

TBH Scarborough is criminally underserved as far as transit goes though. Existing GO lines go through Agincourt and along Lake Ontario and anyone who isn't in a wealthy area and lives east of Vic Park gets (frank)ed in the ass and has to sit on buses for hours.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Jan 21 @ 11:38 AM ET
I put on pants for this?
Monkeypunk
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Whenever, wherever, ON
Joined: 06.27.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:42 AM ET
See my post of 10:24 am.

He gets the puck at the top right corner of the crease (from goalie's perspective). He decides to shoot it into the left corner? Why? For the love of God, why?

- Atomic Wedgie



Because I clearly hadn't even seen the second goal properly, I just went and watched the Game in 6 - that play by Vesey is even worse. There's no immediate pressure (Draisaitl is there, but not engaging him yet). There's no Leaf on the far side he's playing the puck towards. There's literally no good reason to put the puck to that side of the ice.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jan 21 @ 11:51 AM ET
Coulda used that Scarborough extension 20 years ago before I could afford a car.

TBH Scarborough is criminally underserved as far as transit goes though. Existing GO lines go through Agincourt and along Lake Ontario and anyone who isn't in a wealthy area and lives east of Vic Park gets (frank)ed in the ass and has to sit on buses for hours.

- TheMussel

If only there was a plan to get Scarborough the transit it rightfully deserves and desperately needs.

Oh, wait - there was! Transit City - and it would have been done by now, at a fraction of the cost.
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:52 AM ET
Leafs PR
@LeafsPR
·
16m
Forward Joey Anderson has been added to today's practice group. #LeafsForever
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Jan 21 @ 11:54 AM ET
If only there was a plan to get Scarborough the transit it rightfully deserves and desperately needs.

Oh, wait - there was! Transit City - and it would have been done by now, at a fraction of the cost.

- Atomic Wedgie



Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Jan 21 @ 12:00 PM ET
One of the problems that we face in evaluating goalies is that save percentage may not be fair given the factors surrounding the shots or the quality of the shots. So we have advanced stats, which give us High Danger chances, Medium Danger chances, and Low Danger chances.

That's still not good enough. I watched the Leafs pop about 5 "High Danger" chances at Hellebuyck on Monday that had less than 1% chance of going in the net. Hellebuyck is down, covering the bottom of the net completely, his defensemen are swarming the opposing forwards preventing them lifting the puck or even forcefully propelling the puck at the net making life relatively easy for Hellebuyck.

Last year we would watch opposition forwards streak down the wing, the defense collapsing to the middle whether it was an odd-man rush or not, and let the shooter take their time and rifle the puck from "Medium Danger" territory. Those shots have a much higher chance of beating any goalie than the aforementioned example of 5 High Danger shots.

Now, as much as I like stats and numbers and other nerdy things, in deference to your point - we will know if Andersen is rebounding in his play simply by watching. The problem is that there are those who want to blame the goalie for every goal that goes in, and there are those who think goaltending is hard enough, and the goalie's job is to stop a reasonable chance. The first group have an unrealistic expectation of what a goalie should stop, and the second group have an unrealistic expectation of what a goalie shouldn't stop. You also have Max, but he's not a group.

We'll know that Freddie is back on his game when both sides (and for the record I know I'm in the first group) shut up about it and we suddenly find we aren't talking about it. We weren't talking about whether he was any good for the first 2 years other than to argue with Max.

- Monkeypunk

Nice post.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: “Give me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.” Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jan 21 @ 12:10 PM ET
Underrated cheese.
- AdamFrench


“Sorry, fresh out”
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