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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: The 2020-21 season is upon us. A look at the Buffalo Sabres
Author Message
ieetbred
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 06.30.2011

Jan 27 @ 9:49 AM ET
Define Average.
Who is in the pool you are comparing against?

Would you compare Curtis Lazar to Jack Eichel?
Or would you compare Lazar to 4th line Centers, or maybe 3rd and 4th line Centers?

- IonSabres


I took league wide averages by year for my comparison.

Not whos backup and whos not. Since some want to make it that way I will again remind everyone that he was signed for the exact same role he came from and has been below average since arriving here
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 27 @ 9:56 AM ET
bottom 6 team in the standings. Top 6 team in danger chance suppression?

I dont know im not a huge stat guy, i am usually watch the game guy. Ive been watching the same story the stats tell for 3 years with hutton

I am fine with ullmark for now. 9 years without playoffs i would think youre better than this

- ieetbred

when your roster is constructed with eichel, hall, skinner etc
with guys like olofsson ,reinhart, staal and cozens
so called best d prospect in 30 years
you leave hutton and ullmark as your goalies

YOU SHOULD SCORE MORE THEN 3 A GAME


that is how your roster is constructed


it's not like we constructed the roster with rask and halak
or lehner and maf
or Vasilevskiy



it's hutton and ullmark


average is what you should expect and the numbers show that
SDSabre
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.05.2014

Jan 27 @ 9:57 AM ET
Buffalo didn't do Ullmark many favors last night either.. he probably should have had the first one but that second goal with Dahlin slowing chasing the defender behind the net was on the D
- SabresFaninIndiana


That one isn’t on Dahlin. I mean come on, I get it he’s not playing like the phenom we all hoped, but all 4 other players were at the red line. If he barrels at the ranger player he just passes it around him. He had to slow play it, sorta like a two on one. It was miller’s fault for not skating it out of the zone before trying that pass
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 27 @ 9:57 AM ET
I took league wide averages by year for my comparison.

Not whos backup and whos not. Since some want to make it that way I will again remind everyone that he was signed for the exact same role he came from and has been below average since arriving here

- ieetbred

look at crawfords numbers when the hawks were good

look at his numbers when the hawks are bad


as the team goes, so does the goalies


unless you have a hasek or brodeur
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 27 @ 9:59 AM ET
Define Average.
Who is in the pool you are comparing against?


- IonSabres

we are now 15th in the league in gaa
16th in save %


if there is 24 teams in the nhl, we are below average

if 31 teams in the nhl, we are_______________________
ieetbred
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 06.30.2011

Jan 27 @ 10:07 AM ET
when your roster is constructed with eichel, hall, skinner etc
with guys like olofsson ,reinhart, staal and cozens
so called best d prospect in 30 years
you leave hutton and ullmark as your goalies

YOU SHOULD SCORE MORE THEN 3 A GAME


that is how your roster is constructed


it's not like we constructed the roster with rask and halak
or lehner and maf
or Vasilevskiy



it's hutton and ullmark


average is what you should expect and the numbers show that

- homiedclown


Youre right, the roster is constructed to score more

They also play a boring 5v5 system to keep the puck away from the net because the defenseman arent that good, and neither are the goalies. Between the PP and our top end talent on offense we should have a recipe for success with team average goaltending. One goalie has met this standard over the last 3 years and one has not.

For such a big critic of ownership/management (im right there with you) i cant figure out if youre defending hutton or their inability to get better at that position
ieetbred
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 06.30.2011

Jan 27 @ 10:08 AM ET
we are now 15th in the league in gaa
16th in save %


if there is 24 teams in the nhl, we are below average

if 31 teams in the nhl, we are_______________________

- homiedclown


I guess i dont watch enough
ieetbred
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 06.30.2011

Jan 27 @ 10:10 AM ET


as the team goes, so does the goalies


unless you have a hasek or brodeur

- homiedclown


How many goalies did we desperately trade away because of their play in our quest for eichel?
SDSabre
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.05.2014

Jan 27 @ 10:11 AM ET
We have given up 2 goals tonight on 0.29 expected goals against.
- Pegullaville


Now that the game has concluded, can I get an adjustment to the total here? Not being a smart ass, just curious. Or where do you guys get this info.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jan 27 @ 10:17 AM ET
I took league wide averages by year for my comparison.

Not whos backup and whos not. Since some want to make it that way I will again remind everyone that he was signed for the exact same role he came from and has been below average since arriving here

- ieetbred


He has been a career backup, save 1 year, with the Sabres his 1st year here. Hence why I think that us THE comparison to be had.
He was signed for 3 years to transition the Net over to the perceived future (at that time) starter in Ullmark. His contract reflects that at $2.75m.

A quick look through Goalies on teams in the Central and East Divisions (half the league) shows a very similar picture to the Sabres...
- 1 Goalie who has a SV% of around .912 or higher, and
- another Goalie with a SV% below .900
There were a couple of outliers with very good tandems (Bruins) or a starter who has played all games because they have played many less games so far (Covid cancellations).

YES, I would love to see the Sabres upgrade the net...at a reasonable cost..it would help the team i the standings.
However, I still believe that getting the Primary Scorers to pot some goals will pay the same dividends ... and cost nothing.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 27 @ 10:17 AM ET


For such a big critic of ownership/management (im right there with you) i cant figure out if youre defending hutton or their inability to get better at that position

- ieetbred

I heard the last 2 weeks, we need better goaltending, that is why we are struggling


honestly, it sounded like when roby was blaming marty and mika during the bankrupt years

team wasn't scoring

the goalies IMO cost them 1 game, the first game


we all pretty much agreed, we needed average goaltending and more 5 on 5 goals and effective special teams

that was our blueprint once we got hall


the pp is hit or miss
the goal scoring 5 on 5 is not good
the pk is blah


the goaltending, is average



I don't blame them for holding the line in net

johansson is coming off of 2 ahl all stars, fine as the taxi goalie
2 blue chip prospects in 6k and portillo



the reason I am making the stance and defending hutton, and ullmark


game one was an outlier, people are acting as if we had 4 or 5 games like that (see nucks, hawks, oilers etc)


I think hutton was fine in his last 2 starts
I think ullmark has been fine
could they be a bit better, yes but you can say that about every sabre except maybe cozens


if ullmark opted out, they would have to overpay and get a goalie


now we are a .500 team with momentum

staal, cozens, reider, olofsson are heating up
risto is playing well
joker is fine



we don't have the assets or cap space to try to get a big name goalie, even if one was available


I am focusing on the last 3 games

not the 3-0 loss or the 2-1 loss where people are screaming goaltending


TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 27 @ 10:18 AM ET
How's the little chalupa doing. Are team D has been decent until the 3rd last night, goalies have really not had to many tough periods. Ullmark hopefully keeps his head on straight, he's the driving factor in what the Sabres do.
- Buff36


Thanks for asking 36. Chalupa has a whopper of a cold, my wife is recovering from it, and my 2 year old taquita has mild symptoms. My wife's a nurse, got her 2 vaccine shots, got tested the other day, came back negative. But chalupa's a happy little boy, loves to laugh and smile.

Overall, our team forecheck has been excellent, as shown statistically and eye test. Risto McCabe has been preventing zone entries, which is exceptionally important because Risto as a defender is average at best. Ralph is maximizing their strengths by having them play a certain way. But last night in the third can partially be explained by game-situation, the Rangers putting all their eggs into the offensive only basket and pressing the Sabres. However, the Sabres let it happen and eased off the gas.

This season truly hinges on these goalies. And Kevyn needs to really, really focus on it. If he realizes that the goalies are the true achilles heal, he absolutely must act.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 27 @ 10:19 AM ET
Ralph is a good coach. Discuss
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 27 @ 10:20 AM ET
I guess i dont watch enough
- ieetbred

I posted it the other day, but I will do it again

the 5 on 5 goals given up

cue staal for the opener
mccabe got lost looking at his shadow at the blue line, led to another 5 on 5 goal
dahlin blunders led to probably 3 over the year
miller led to one last night


that's pretty much half the 5 on 5 goals we allowed this season


and 6 of 7 in shootout saved, should have won both those games



we are average, as we hoped for

15th in gaaa
16th in save %


and getting better with each passing game
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jan 27 @ 10:20 AM ET
Now that the game has concluded, can I get an adjustment to the total here? Not being a smart ass, just curious. Or where do you guys get this info.
- SDSabre


XGA was somewhere around 1.5n. He allowed 2, posting a SV% OF .933.
As an aside, the XGF was somewhere in the 2.9n range...they scored 3.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 27 @ 10:21 AM ET
Ralph is a good coach. Discuss
- TheSabresTaco

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_tsIuuRJcI
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 27 @ 10:23 AM ET
XGA was somewhere around 1.5n. He allowed 2, posting a SV% OF .933.
As an aside, the XGF was somewhere in the 2.9n range...they scored 3.

- IonSabres

av·er·age
/ˈav(ə)rij/

a number expressing the central or typical value in a set of data, in particular the mode, median, or (most commonly) the mean, which is calculated by dividing the sum of the values in the set by their number.
"the housing prices there are twice the national average"

TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 27 @ 10:23 AM ET
I heard the last 2 weeks, we need better goaltending, that is why we are struggling



- homiedclown


I see where you're coming from, and I'm not here holding a sign that says "We're losing because of our goalies."

What I'm trying to portray is that this team would be way better with more competent goalie play. As that may sound like an obvious statement, if the Sabres start to hit average with their shooting, matching their 5v5 expected goals, AND Ullmark starts moving into the "easy work, good results" category, he would ideally be stealing a few games for us when the skaters aren't potting many goals throughout the season.

Otherwise, when they're not scoring, like they aren't now (to their expected abilities), you can't count on the goalies to steal you a game. Because they're letting in soft goals.
Sabretooth9
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 05.24.2019

Jan 27 @ 10:24 AM ET
I heard the last 2 weeks, we need better goaltending, that is why we are struggling


honestly, it sounded like when roby was blaming marty and mika during the bankrupt years

team wasn't scoring

the goalies IMO cost them 1 game, the first game


we all pretty much agreed, we needed average goaltending and more 5 on 5 goals and effective special teams

that was our blueprint once we got hall


the pp is hit or miss
the goal scoring 5 on 5 is not good
the pk is blah


the goaltending, is average



I don't blame them for holding the line in net

johansson is coming off of 2 ahl all stars, fine as the taxi goalie
2 blue chip prospects in 6k and portillo



the reason I am making the stance and defending hutton, and ullmark


game one was an outlier, people are acting as if we had 4 or 5 games like that (see nucks, hawks, oilers etc)


I think hutton was fine in his last 2 starts
I think ullmark has been fine
could they be a bit better, yes but you can say that about every sabre except maybe cozens


if ullmark opted out, they would have to overpay and get a goalie


now we are a .500 team with momentum

staal, cozens, reider, olofsson are heating up
risto is playing well
joker is fine



we don't have the assets or cap space to try to get a big name goalie, even if one was available


I am focusing on the last 3 games

not the 3-0 loss or the 2-1 loss where people are screaming goaltending

- homiedclown



The problem with Sabres goaltending is that when they do face a high danger shot. It mostly always goes in.

The Sabres rangers game. The Sabres had 11 high danger shots and the rangers had 3.

The Sabres goalies are playing well but when they truly do need a save. The team never really gets it.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Jan 27 @ 10:25 AM ET
Now that the game has concluded, can I get an adjustment to the total here? Not being a smart ass, just curious. Or where do you guys get this info.
- SDSabre


It ended 2.8 for Buffalo and 2.4 for the Rangers I believe.

Ullmark definitely redeemed himself in the 3rd period to make up for the first period
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 27 @ 10:26 AM ET


Otherwise, when they're not scoring, like they aren't now (to their expected abilities), you can't count on the goalies to steal you a game. Because they're letting in soft goals.

- TheSabresTaco



that seems to be the norm though from most teams


except when we played the caps backup or elliott
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Jan 27 @ 10:27 AM ET
av·er·age
/ˈav(ə)rij/

a number expressing the central or typical value in a set of data, in particular the mode, median, or (most commonly) the mean, which is calculated by dividing the sum of the values in the set by their number.
"the housing prices there are twice the national average"

- homiedclown


The idea is, here, would be that if an NHL goalie was facing easy work loads, he should be handling them well. Ullmark has been a bit below average in the effectiveness of stopping shots from his easy work load. Assuming Ralph's system holds up throughout the season (overall), Ullmark will need to move into the above average category for the Sabres to have a chance at the playoffs.
ieetbred
Buffalo Sabres
Location: NY
Joined: 06.30.2011

Jan 27 @ 10:28 AM ET
I posted it the other day, but I will do it again

the 5 on 5 goals given up

cue staal for the opener
mccabe got lost looking at his shadow at the blue line, led to another 5 on 5 goal
dahlin blunders led to probably 3 over the year
miller led to one last night


that's pretty much half the 5 on 5 goals we allowed this season


and 6 of 7 in shootout saved, should have won both those games



we are average, as we hoped for

15th in gaaa
16th in save %


and getting better with each passing game

- homiedclown


Fair play. Agreed with a good bit of your previous post.

But if you want to start pointing to every breakdown as a reason a goal went in then you also need to start asking your goalie to bail you out on occasion and it hasnt happened and there is no evidence to suggest it will start happening
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 27 @ 10:30 AM ET
The problem with Sabres goaltending is that when they do face a high danger shot. It mostly always goes in.

The Sabres rangers game. The Sabres had 11 high danger shots and the rangers had 3.

The Sabres goalies are playing well but when they truly do need a save. The team never really gets it.

- Sabretooth9

2 things on that

1. ullmark stopped 6 of 7 shootout shots, the skaters let him down on friday

2. I think people are looking more into advanced stats and not game flow


could ullmark have made a save here and there, yes
he came up huge in the ot on a pk the other night and of course the third period last night


hutton, 3 starts, 2 of them were really good



look at how many games we were out of over the last few years after a period of play, not seeing that this year aside from the opener
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jan 27 @ 10:31 AM ET
The idea is, here, would be that if an NHL goalie was facing easy work loads, he should be handling them well. Ullmark has been a bit below average in the effectiveness of stopping shots from his easy work load. Assuming Ralph's system holds up throughout the season (overall), Ullmark will need to move into the above average category for the Sabres to have a chance at the playoffs.
- TheSabresTaco

I think your dismissing the shootout


ullmark got them the win sunday from that alone, and his play in the shootout friday justified another win we should of had but the playmakers paid big money let us down in that shootout
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