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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs cut down to 26, still have to make more roster decisions
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Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jan 12 @ 10:07 AM ET
I like to play backjack and same applies, they put table limits for that reason.

even if you try it, you have to have stones of steel...you will lose 6 or 7 hands in a row often enough.

- senstroll


yeah, I have little raisins when it comes to betting my money.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jan 12 @ 10:08 AM ET
I had a buddy who would fly to Atlantic city every weekend. He would play roulette. He simply waited for 5 red or black and then bet the other colour, and kept doubling his bet until he won... it was a 5 dollar table so he would only ever win 5 bucks in the sequence.

He use to win a couple hundred buck each trip and they brought him free drinks.

I programmed some simulations and told him that the scheme did not work. The table had a top limit, so you could not double up indefinitely. If something like 10 or 11 of one colour hit in a row he would lose all the bets.

He did not believe me... until consecutive weeks where he lost over 1K. He never went back (thankfully)

If there was a scheme like that to win, everyone would be doing it. There isn't. Everyone loses.

- Aetherial

Reminds me of something I have never forgotten:

In grade 8 or 9, our class went to the Ontario Science Centre.

The Science Guy explained how if you flipped a coin and it came up heads 10 times in a row, the odds of it coming up heads on the next flip were still 50/50.

I vividly remember arguing with him (because at that age, I had all the answers) and he patiently explained to me how it worked (I'm guessing he had this argument 8 times a day, 5 days a week).

I still remember the feeling when the light went off in my head and I understood.
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jan 12 @ 10:09 AM ET
Whenever I go to Vegas (which is not that often - maybe 5 times in last 30 years), I really like sports betting, but even then, I'm too cheap to really risk any real money.

I think the most I ever dropped was one year when I was there during the Superbowl - and even then, I bet less than $100 in total (I actually won every bet - thank you New York Giants!).

You used to be able to go to the Barbary Coast sports book - it was franking horrible, but you could drop bets, then drink $1 cups (yeah, Solo cups - it was classy) of beer and eat cheap hot dogs.

Craps and 21 do absolutely nothing for me.

- Atomic Wedgie


yeah me neither. I won't even play. I did play quarter slots once.

Sports betting, if anything, would be where I could see me losing money.
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jan 12 @ 10:11 AM ET
Auston Matthews, best shape of his life alert!!!

https://theathletic.com/2...source=emp-shared-article

- senstroll


All the young guys better be, especially making $1m/mth. (frank)ers!!!!
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jan 12 @ 10:11 AM ET
About 35 years ago, I bought a book on sports gambling.

It had one "sure thing."

No NBA, NHL or MLB championship series had ever been won without the home team winning a game.

So all you had to do was bet on the home team. If you lost game 1, double your bet for game 2, etc. Sooner or later, you would win.

As I say, I bought it back in the mid-1980s. The formula held true until a couple of years ago - when the World Series away teams won every game.

- Atomic Wedgie


I forgot about that. There are some historical trends like that that would be safer to bet on, but nothing is safe.
21peter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Peter I Island
Joined: 11.18.2014

Jan 12 @ 10:11 AM ET
love going to the tracks - in particular since there is such a broad variety of people there..
it's pleasant when you live in a big city and able to escape to a 'green oasis' which are most of these tracks.
i visited all of the tracks in Paris, both of the tracks in Rome (all of them several times) + one in Buenos Aires.
I was gambling but not big amounts - for me it was mostly a pleasant afternoon out, have a nice lunch or drink at the tracks and change a bit of scenery.
Did attend the 'Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - was a great day.

- MaximusAurelius

Nice.

It's all about trotting in Norway. Only 1 track for gallop - very close to my place.

(William Buick grew up there)
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jan 12 @ 10:12 AM ET
Reminds me of something I have never forgotten:

In grade 8 or 9, our class went to the Ontario Science Centre.

The Science Guy explained how if you flipped a coin and it came up heads 10 times in a row, the odds of it coming up heads on the next flip were still 50/50.

I vividly remember arguing with him (because at that age, I had all the answers) and he patiently explained to me how it worked (I'm guessing he had this argument 8 times a day, 5 days a week).

I still remember the feeling when the light went off in my head and I understood.

- Atomic Wedgie


LOL, I was like that also.

People still don't get it.

In fact, because of the 0/00 he had less than 50% chance to win on each bet. I really don't think he grasped the concept of independent events.

bixll
Location: New Glasgow, NS
Joined: 09.04.2008

Jan 12 @ 10:13 AM ET
All the young guys better be, especially making $1m/mth. (frank)ers!!!!
- Garnie

Agreed
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jan 12 @ 10:17 AM ET
Whenever I go to Vegas (which is not that often - maybe 5 times in last 30 years), I really like sports betting, but even then, I'm too cheap to really risk any real money.

I think the most I ever dropped was one year when I was there during the Superbowl - and even then, I bet less than $100 in total (I actually won every bet - thank you New York Giants!).

You used to be able to go to the Barbary Coast sports book - it was franking horrible, but you could drop bets, then drink $1 cups (yeah, Solo cups - it was classy) of beer and eat cheap hot dogs.

Craps and 21 do absolutely nothing for me.

- Atomic Wedgie


Blackjack is fun if you get into it, we go to vegas often and I mostly play bj, usually find a $5 table and play for hours..as long as you stick to your bets and dont get crazy, you can come out even and I like to walk away when I am up some.

Also if you are at a table with other players who are chatty and friendly it can be a good time. (free drinks when you play)

Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jan 12 @ 10:18 AM ET
yeah, I have little raisins when it comes to betting my money.
- Aetherial


I just have little raisins

And I’m tight as they come so I don’t bet much either
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jan 12 @ 10:19 AM ET
Agreed
- bixll


How many coats on the GIT now?
bixll
Location: New Glasgow, NS
Joined: 09.04.2008

Jan 12 @ 10:22 AM ET
How many coats on the GIT now?
- Garnie


2 coats and a sweater.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Jan 12 @ 10:24 AM ET
2 coats and a sweater.
- bixll

but on some long johns also

buurrrr it's cold out there

Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jan 12 @ 10:24 AM ET
2 coats and a sweater.
- bixll


It must be looking cute!!!!
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jan 12 @ 10:24 AM ET
LOL, I was like that also.

People still don't get it.

In fact, because of the 0/00 he had less than 50% chance to win on each bet. I really don't think he grasped the concept of independent events.

- Aetherial

And there's this:

https://www.investopedia....06%25%20house%20advantage.

How Players Lose More Than They Expect

Many people who are aware of the house edge still don't really grasp its implications for their bankrolls. They believe that the roughly 5% edge the house has at the roulette table means that they can reasonably expect to sit down with $100, gamble for a few hours, and the odds are that they will only lose about $5. They fail to understand that the house edge doesn't apply to their starting bankroll, but to the total amount they wager.

For example, assume a person is making $5 bets on every spin of the roulette wheel, and the wheel spins 50 times an hour. While he may be winning some bets and losing some bets, he is wagering $250 an hour. If the house edge plays out perfectly, at the end of four hours of play, he loses $50, or 5% of $1,000—an amount 10 times greater than what he had expected from his misunderstanding of the house edge.
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

Jan 12 @ 10:24 AM ET
I hope Roope Hintz is ok.. (terrible covid scare there with the Dallas team).

in all seriousness though - weren't taxi squads set up just for that situation where several players would test positive for Covid? 6 dallas players tested positive - taxi squad consists of 4-6 players, so they still should have been ok to go??
bixll
Location: New Glasgow, NS
Joined: 09.04.2008

Jan 12 @ 10:25 AM ET
but on some long johns also

buurrrr it's cold out there

- dmnted



Way a head of you. Friggin hate the cold. I am already to move to the South for the winters. Have everything together for it, except the money.
bixll
Location: New Glasgow, NS
Joined: 09.04.2008

Jan 12 @ 10:26 AM ET
It must be looking cute!!!!
- Garnie



Sent you a pic last night. I sanded some character into it.
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jan 12 @ 10:28 AM ET
And there's this:

https://www.investopedia....06%25%20house%20advantage.

How Players Lose More Than They Expect

Many people who are aware of the house edge still don't really grasp its implications for their bankrolls. They believe that the roughly 5% edge the house has at the roulette table means that they can reasonably expect to sit down with $100, gamble for a few hours, and the odds are that they will only lose about $5. They fail to understand that the house edge doesn't apply to their starting bankroll, but to the total amount they wager.

For example, assume a person is making $5 bets on every spin of the roulette wheel, and the wheel spins 50 times an hour. While he may be winning some bets and losing some bets, he is wagering $250 an hour. If the house edge plays out perfectly, at the end of four hours of play, he loses $50, or 5% of $1,000—an amount 10 times greater than what he had expected from his misunderstanding of the house edge.

- Atomic Wedgie


That's pretty interesting and I think most people don't understand that at all. Hell, until you pointed it out, I am not sure I would have thought about it, even if it is obviously true.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: This world is just a veil and the face you wear is not your own., ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jan 12 @ 10:28 AM ET
Everyone loses money eventually.

Everyone.

That's how gambling works.

- Atomic Wedgie


That’s why the house always wins and casino owners never go bankrupt, never
Garnie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 11.30.2009

Jan 12 @ 10:29 AM ET
Sent you a pic last night.
- bixll


Yep, got it. 😬
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Jan 12 @ 10:30 AM ET
That’s why the house always wins and casino owners never go bankrupt, never
- Canada Cup

Unless its a Trump casino.
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jan 12 @ 10:31 AM ET
I hope Roope Hintz is ok.. (terrible covid scare there with the Dallas team).

in all seriousness though - weren't taxi squads set up just for that situation where several players would test positive for Covid? 6 dallas players tested positive - taxi squad consists of 4-6 players, so they still should have been ok to go??

- MaximusAurelius


Are they keeping the taxi squad separate from the team? Otherwise if it runs through the team it would hit the taxi squad also?
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jan 12 @ 10:32 AM ET
I just have little raisins

And I’m tight as they come so I don’t bet much either

- Garnie


Stop it Garnie. Symba told us long ago that you were more generously appointed than the rest of us.
bixll
Location: New Glasgow, NS
Joined: 09.04.2008

Jan 12 @ 10:32 AM ET
Unless its a Trump casino.
- Arctic_AARDVARK



He is so (frank)ed.....
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