National Hockey League forwards reach their peak scoring performance at age 28 and defencemen peak at age 29, while goaltenders show little change in performance based on age, says a new study that crunched the numbers.
Those are the key findings of a study by the UBC business school that looked at the data from the 14 regular seasons between 1997-98 and 2011-12.
For co-author James Brander, the bottom line of their study is that "the key to winning is having good, young players."
"This study provides a more complete and more accurate assessment of how that works," he added.
The study will be published in the June issue of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Brander's co-authors are Edward Egan and Louisa Yeung. They analyzed peak performance in a number of ways, but the statistics they relied on were regular season points scored and plus-minus for skaters and save percentage for goalies.
Brander's team also found that forwards:
Improve more quickly than they decline and typically begin "a significant decline in their early 30s."
Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 32 years old.
25 is their most common age, with 24-27 very similar.
*Girgensons contract is looking like a steal for the Buffalo Sabres. (Kidding)
Who and Why did they give him this contract?
Who should be blamed?
The market did probably re-set a bit after ufa ended
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY Joined: 05.05.2011
Nov 12 @ 12:28 AM ET
Allen is elite.
So is Jack.
Girgensons is overpaid and will never sniff the top six again.
Trump lost, grow up.
Biden won, grow up.
The only good Rootbeer is A&W, Stewart's and IBC.
Reinhart is statistically a top line forward.
Jeff Skinner is an elite talent that does not always score at an elite level.
Ristolainen is good. At what you ask? Stay tuned.
The amount of alt accounts in here is all you need to know about the absolute tom(frank)ery we deal with every god damn day. And we lose good members as a result of that tom(frank)ery.
Thank you veterans for serving this great country.
Location: Look, it's a situation where thats a great question, OH Joined: 07.01.2020
Nov 12 @ 12:42 AM ET
My favorite rhetoric of 2020: Andrew Cuomo sent elderly people to their deaths!
Not the family members who shoved their elderly relatives into concentration camps generously called nursing homes, no, Andrew Fukkin Cuomo.
News flash: OLD PEOPLE DIE. IT'S WHAT THEY DO. THEY GO TO NURSING HOMES TO DIE.
Source: My mother has been an LPN and worked in nursing homes for 30+ years. Most of the patients never have family visit them and are shoved in there already on their death bed. Out of sight, out of mind.
But yeah Cuomo killed them. Following Trump's CDC guidelines. I think some of you forget that New York City is by and far the largest, most densely populated metropolitan area in our country and one of the largest in the world, and where over 50% of all foreigners enter America. He had to worry about that first and he did what he had to do in order to protect MILLION upon MILLIONS of people.
YOU SENT YOUR ELDERLY FAMILY MEMBERS TO THEIR DEATH BY PUTTING THEM IN A NURSING HOME INSTEAD OF BRINGING THEM HOME TO TAKE CARE OF THEM. YOU.
Location: Mo can stay awhile, FL Joined: 10.27.2017
Nov 12 @ 12:45 AM ET
Can honestly say I didn’t think of that.
I would be very surprised if Hoffman ended up here. I don’t think it makes much sense.
He is meh at 5v5 however he is elite on the man advantage but we have Olofsson who will essentially fill that same role.
Crazier things have happened though. - Pegullaville
The year he scored 36 goals - 20 PP/extra attacker, 16 ES
He is elite on the PP, and his play without the puck noticeably improved over the course of last year. (Grain of salt with that, it was a contract year).
National Hockey League forwards reach their peak scoring performance at age 28 and defencemen peak at age 29, while goaltenders show little change in performance based on age, says a new study that crunched the numbers.
Those are the key findings of a study by the UBC business school that looked at the data from the 14 regular seasons between 1997-98 and 2011-12.
For co-author James Brander, the bottom line of their study is that "the key to winning is having good, young players."
"This study provides a more complete and more accurate assessment of how that works," he added.
The study will be published in the June issue of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Brander's co-authors are Edward Egan and Louisa Yeung. They analyzed peak performance in a number of ways, but the statistics they relied on were regular season points scored and plus-minus for skaters and save percentage for goalies.
Brander's team also found that forwards:
Improve more quickly than they decline and typically begin "a significant decline in their early 30s."
Perform within 90 per cent of their peak from 24 to 32 years old.
25 is their most common age, with 24-27 very similar.
*Girgensons contract is looking like a steal for the Buffalo Sabres. (Kidding)
Who and Why did they give him this contract?
Who should be blamed?
The market did probably re-set a bit after ufa ended - Hall&Eich's-28
I've read a number of studies, most say 24 or 25. When I see higher than that, it almost always uses much older data. Micah McCurdy is well respected (and the source of a ton of data that gets posted here) and is definitive that 24 is peak. Girgs will be 27 (most likely) when the season starts on a deal that takes him to 30.
It's a puzzling deal. They understood enough about the market to not qualify Kahun, so I don't think this is a case of the market surprising them. It's not all that significant in the big picture, and the topic has really been beaten to death. What he's likely to do over the next 3 years is at least a slightly different topic.
Allen is elite.
So is Jack.
Girgensons is paid and will sniff the top six again.
Trump lost
Biden won
The good Rootbeer is A&W, Stewart's and IBC.
Reinhart is statistically a top.
Jeff Skinner does not always score at an elite level.
Ristolainen is good. Stay tuned.
The amount of alt accounts in here is all you need to know about the absolute tom(frank)ery. we deal with members as a result of that tom(frank)ery.
Thank you veterans for serving this great country.
I've read a number of studies, most say 24 or 25. When I see higher than that, it almost always uses much older data. Micah McCurdy is well respected (and the source of a ton of data that gets posted here) and is definitive that 24 is peak. Girgs will be 27 (most likely) when the season starts on a deal that takes him to 30.
It's a puzzling deal. They understood enough about the market to not qualify Kahun, so I don't think this is a case of the market surprising them. It's not all that significant in the big picture, and the topic has really been beaten to death. What he's likely to do over the next 3 years is at least a slightly different topic. - Lunaion
I agree, my studies are from a few years back. Things change and athletes are hitting their prime earlier. Although i'm not sure if they are losing years on the end?
Girgs will be 26/27 This season if 1/1 start
27/28 in year 2
28/29 in year 3 (oct, nov, dec, part of jan) 1/2 a season basically at 28 years old, 1/2 at 29.
It's a bit deceiving
A guy like Gurgs isn't gonna all the sudden lose his magic power at 28? Seems more of a slow ride down guy. Slow ride up guy too.
Great chatting Lunaion. Have a great night. We've covered past and present girgs/ lol
He scored a lot of PP goals from the right circle, but I think would start on the point (4F/1D) and wind up over there. I think most of the time 5v5 he may have been on the left side, but I’m not sure. He didn’t play a whole lot 5v5 with Barkov/Huberdeau, but when he did it would’ve been on RW, as Hubie always is on LW. So, I think he can play both. And his shot is even more dangerous on his off (R) wing. I linked a highlight reel earlier today, iirc pg 55 or 56. He can score from anywhere. - Ratsreign
I agree, my studies are from a few years back. Things change and athletes are hitting their prime earlier. Although i'm not sure if they are losing years on the end?
Girgs will be 26/27 This season if 1/1 start
27/28 in year 2
28/29 in year 3 (oct, nov, dec, part of jan) 1/2 a season basically at 28 years old, 1/2 at 29.
It's a bit deceiving
A guy like Gurgs isn't gonna all the sudden lose his magic power at 28? Seems more of a slow ride down guy. Slow ride up guy too.
Great chatting Lunaion. Have a great night. We've covered past and present girgs/ lol - Hall&Eich's-28
You're right, I was off a year. He'll be 29 at the end.
"On Cozens: The Sabres could face a difficult decision on Cozens, a 19-year-old who was drafted with the No. 7 pick in June 2019. If Cozens plays for Canada at world juniors, he could face a mandatory quarantine upon returning to Buffalo for Sabres camp. Additionally, the NHL is moving forward with a tentative season start date of Jan. 1, which would cause camps to open sometime in December. The protocols could change in the coming weeks.
Would the Sabres pull Cozens from the tournament if it could impact his ability to make the NHL roster?
“One, it’s not new information to us as to what this is going to look like – the quarantine hurdles, everything that’s gone on even from the New York state standpoint and the way things are with countries and other countries coming in,” said Ellis. “We’re well on top of what a quarantine could mean and we also understand that coming in with a quarantine is not ideal for an athlete trying to bring his best to make a hockey team. Those are valid concerns. … Those are things where you plan for A, B, C, D, E and F scenarios and you go from there. The bottom line is you have to have a plan in place.”
- Well I learned nothing about their plan but he definitely said some words
Also it sounds like UPL could stay in Finland all year:
The Sabres’ signing of AHL veteran Dustin Tokarski to a two-year contract will fulfill the organization’s requirement for the expansion draft next offseason, but it also raised questions about their plan for Rochester. Is it conceivable to have three goalies share the workload in practices and games?
The Sabres will weigh risk versus reward when deciding how to approach Luukkonen’s situation. Is it worth the risk of having his AHL season disrupted by the coronavirus when he may be able to play a full season in Finland’s top men’s league? Though Ellis would not comment about Luukkonen’s situation specifically, he spoke about the value of “continuity.”
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL Joined: 03.10.2013
Nov 12 @ 9:54 AM ET
From the BN
- Well I learned nothing about their plan but he definitely said some words - jcragcrumple
Lol, if this then that, but if that then this, unless of course it isn't then or this.
I have a hard time believing a 1/1 start date myself, of course IMO
1/1 is 49 days away and would take players through Christmas, when historically they have a formal break not only from play but trades as well.
I would have expected alot more chatter by now.
Interesting, seems to make sense, and I was wondering what would happen with the three of them in Roch.
I did see him playing up in the '21-'22 season either, so they could use that season to re-acclimate him to the NA game with change in angles. - IonSabres
Yeah I had the same thought. It would be a bad idea to move him directly from Europe to the NHL
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL Joined: 03.10.2013
Nov 12 @ 11:33 AM ET
It’s great UPL is playing .... but he needs AHL time. NHL regulation rink and game speed.
The AHL is supposed to start In February - Sabretooth9
In a perfect world, yes that would be the best, no doubt.
Amerks roster at G is complicated now with the recent signing of Tokarski.
I guess it's better he plays consistently rather than in a 3 man rotation, as Johansson also needs consistent playing time.
It a weird hockey world right now with uncertainty and planning for the expansion draft.
In a perfect world, yes that would be the best, no doubt.
Amerks roster at G is complicated now with the recent signing of Tokarski.
I guess it's better he plays consistently rather than in a 3 man rotation, as Johansson also needs consistent playing time.
It a weird hockey world right now with uncertainty and planning for the expansion draft. - IonSabres
Very true, but it also matters what happens in the next month or so. I don't think the Sabres are done. I have been told they are still having conversations with Arizona.
