Trump is averaging 52% of the mail in votes AZ. A plausible # for AZ.

Biden is averaging 69% for mail in votes in PA. Only one county is averaging over 69% overall for Biden - Philly at ~ 81%. Philly only had 14% of issued mail-in ballots.

The next highest county for Biden is 62%; meaning 86% of mail-in ballots were issued to counties with 62% or less going to biden. Mail in ballots are spread across all counties somewhat proportionality, slighlty favoring dem counties.

I get that mail-in votes will favor Biden in the end.

But you don't have to a statistician to know the math on the 69% average doesn't add up; when the overall state is around 50/50 and their isn't an extremely significant disproportionate distribution of ballots.
- Tumbleweed

According to this, it's 65.5% returned by registered democrats, 25.5% returned by registered republicans, and 10% returned by people with no party affiliation.

Assuming democrats vote democrat, republicans vote republican, and no affililation goes 50/50, that would make 70% of returned mail in ballots going to biden.

https://electproject.gith.../Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

- mjones242

More of a Monty Python kind of guy.

Is it over yet???

More of a Monty Python kind of guy.
- bixll

Monty Python is the bestest.

But the satire and absurdity in They Live isn't too far removed.

According to this, it's 65.5% returned by registered democrats, 25.5% returned by registered republicans, and 10% returned by people with no party affiliation.

Assuming democrats vote democrat, republicans vote republican, and no affililation goes 50/50, that would make 70% of returned mail in ballots going to biden.

https://electproject.gith.../Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html
- TheMussel

Trump is averaging 52% of the mail in votes AZ. A plausible # for AZ.

Biden is averaging 69% for mail in votes in PA. Only one county is averaging over 69% overall for Biden - Philly at ~ 81%. Philly only had 14% of issued mail-in ballots.

The next highest county for Biden is 62%; meaning 86% of mail-in ballots were issued to counties with 62% or less going to biden. Mail in ballots are spread across all counties somewhat proportionality, slighlty favoring dem counties.

I get that mail-in votes will favor Biden in the end.

But you don't have to a statistician to know the math on the 69% average doesn't add up; when the overall state is around 50/50 and their isn't an extremely significant disproportionate distribution of ballots.
- Tumbleweed

You're still harping on this. First, I would strongly suggest you look at how vote counting is done so that you can better understand how hard it would be for someone to fraudulently cast a ballot, fraudulently forge a ballot or fraudulently count a ballot. Claims that there aren't 30 republican representatives in the room doesn't mean that there aren't election officials, checks, balances, and double checks on ballots being counted.

Second, Philadelphia as a county makes up about 1.5M, but the greater area consists of about 4.5M people, and contains other counties - Buck, Delaware, Montgomery and Chester - all of which were also voting for Biden.

In terms of mail-in ballots received (not only registered), it was:

Bucks 163K
Chester 150K
Delaware 128K
Montgomery 243K
Philadelphia 361K

Now, most of those are marginally Democratic, but Philadelphia is overwhelmingly so. There are still around 15% of those voters who were not registered. Given that Biden's strategy to appeal to independents seem to work, and there were a significant number of Republicans who voted Democrat this election - particularly in larger Urban areas (I would absolutely bet because of poor pandemic responses) - the numbers in PA don't surprise me.

- Scabeh

I like that.

Yes, people get smarter as they get older
- TheMussel

True

Trump is averaging 52% of the mail in votes AZ. A plausible # for AZ.

Biden is averaging 69% for mail in votes in PA. Only one county is averaging over 69% overall for Biden - Philly at ~ 81%. Philly only had 14% of issued mail-in ballots.

The next highest county for Biden is 62%; meaning 86% of mail-in ballots were issued to counties with 62% or less going to biden. Mail in ballots are spread across all counties somewhat proportionality, slighlty favoring dem counties.

I get that mail-in votes will favor Biden in the end.

But you don't have to a statistician to know the math on the 69% average doesn't add up; when the overall state is around 50/50 and their isn't an extremely significant disproportionate distribution of ballots.
- Tumbleweed

I would throw one more thing in here. I'm sure you've seen this, but it also paints a better representation of what's happening and it makes a great deal of sense. Again, Urban centres tend to lean Democrat and Rural areas tend to lean Republican, but the population sparsity is very noticeable in rural areas. If you take an Urban centre, you have a better chance of taking the State. In PA, Biden has Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Allentown and Erie. I mean . .. outside of Hershey, I don't even know what else is there.

According to this, it's 65.5% returned by registered democrats, 25.5% returned by registered republicans, and 10% returned by people with no party affiliation.

Assuming democrats vote democrat, republicans vote republican, and no affililation goes 50/50, that would make 70% of returned mail in ballots going to biden.

https://electproject.gith.../Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html
- TheMussel

Fair point - but one of the reasons many pollsters get it wrong so badly is people don't vote with the party registration as often as they think.

Voter registration: 47% Dem, 39% Rep & 12% other.

To get a 50/50 vote, at the high-end, something like an 85%, 90%, 50% split would be needed. that leaves you at 62% Biden. A pretty high number. Anything higher than this becomes unrealistic imo.

Trafalgar - the most accurate pollster from 2016 - often uses 60-70% for party affiliation voting. so the real number is probably lower.

The Libertian vote went down by ~3M. I wonder where those votes went to?

Dems are currently down about 2M votes in strongholds of Cali, Illinois, Maryland, NJ and NY.

So Biden actually gained ~10M voters across the other 45 states. Seems reasonable since his campaign was focused on handful of states and people in Dem stronghold states rejected him.

Or are the 2m people people the ones that left their poophole states like NY - but inexplicably continue to vote Democrat?
- Tumbleweed

How did these very smart Democrats pull this off across multiple states while leaving Mitch McConnell in control of the Senate and able to block every socialist piece of legislation they want to foist upon the American people?

Why didn’t they think of this four years ago?

How the (frank) did they actually do this and convince the Republican Governor of Georgia to go along?

Quote from Vladimir Putin

“In my opinion, it is humiliating. One must be able to lose with dignity.”

Donald, that’s Vlad talking

Quote from Vladimir Putin

“In my opinion, it is humiliating. One must be able to lose with dignity.”

Donald, that’s Vlad talking
- Canada Cup

Speaking of Putin, word on the street is that he may be stepping down next year.

Of course, probably not before a law is put into place that provides lifelong immunity to ex-Presidents.

I'm a little unsure what the controversy is.

In 2000, it was Dems 51.28%, Republicans 46.15%

In 2004 it was Dems 51.23%, Republicans 47.81%

In 2008 it was Dems 57.33%, Republicans 40.89%

In 2012 it was Dems 54.21%, Republicans 44.71%

In 2016 it was Dems 47.27%, Republicans 47.50%

In 2020 its Dems 50.6%, Republicans 47.9%

Are we really saying a Democrat taking Michigan can only be explained by voter fraud?
- Atomic Wedgie

We live in a world where people believe QANON. Social media has turned people's minds to mush. The internet killed critical thinking.

Quote from Vladimir Putin

“In my opinion, it is humiliating. One must be able to lose with dignity.”

Donald, that’s Vlad talking
- Canada Cup

The useful idiot has served Putin's purpose....he's not needed any more.


If I was a Trump kid, I'd be pretty worried about getting poisoned.

You're still harping on this. First, I would strongly suggest you look at how vote counting is done so that you can better understand how hard it would be for someone to fraudulently cast a ballot, fraudulently forge a ballot or fraudulently count a ballot. Claims that there aren't 30 republican representatives in the room doesn't mean that there aren't election officials, checks, balances, and double checks on ballots being counted.

Second, Philadelphia as a county makes up about 1.5M, but the greater area consists of about 4.5M people, and contains other counties - Buck, Delaware, Montgomery and Chester - all of which were also voting for Biden.

In terms of mail-in ballots received (not only registered), it was:

Bucks 163K
Chester 150K
Delaware 128K
Montgomery 243K
Philadelphia 361K

Now, most of those are marginally Democratic, but Philadelphia is overwhelmingly so. There are still around 15% of those voters who were not registered. Given that Biden's strategy to appeal to independents seem to work, and there were a significant number of Republicans who voted Democrat this election - particularly in larger Urban areas (I would absolutely bet because of poor pandemic responses) - the numbers in PA don't surprise me.
- Monkeypunk

Sure this makes sense. If you consider those counties, Biden is averaging 66% of the vote. I would buy an an average of 69% for mail-in ballots all day long for these counties.

But those counties only represent 1M of total mail in ballots.........

If we bring in the the excluded 1.5M mail-in ballots that were cast in counties that voted 58% in favor of trump, the 69% falls completely apart.

Every vote counts, right? Not just the ones from the counties you prefer? I thought that is how it's suppose to work anyways.

Quote from Vladimir Putin

“In my opinion, it is humiliating. One must be able to lose with dignity.”

Donald, that’s Vlad talking
- Canada Cup

Really?
where is this from?

The useful idiot has served Putin's purpose....he's not needed any more.


If I was a Trump kid, I'd be pretty worried about getting poisoned.
- underhill14

I apologize. The quote was from 2016.

Sure this makes sense. If you consider those counties, Biden is averaging 66% of the vote. I would buy an an average of 69% for mail-in ballots all day long for these counties.

But those counties only represent 1M of total mail in ballots.........

If we bring in the the excluded 1.5M mail-in ballots that were cast in counties that voted 58% in favor of trump, the 69% falls completely apart.

Every vote counts, right? Not just the ones from the counties you prefer? I thought that is how it's suppose to work anyways.
- Tumbleweed

Could you add some context to this claim? Serious question, what ballots?

I apologize. The quote was from 2016.
- Canada Cup

Well, it aged well.

Sure this makes sense. If you consider those counties, Biden is averaging 66% of the vote. I would buy an an average of 69% for mail-in ballots all day long for these counties.

But those counties only represent 1M of total mail in ballots.........

If we bring in the the excluded 1.5M mail-in ballots that were cast in counties that voted 58% in favor of trump, the 69% falls completely apart.

Every vote counts, right? Not just the ones from the counties you prefer? I thought that is how it's suppose to work anyways.
- Tumbleweed

My understanding was that PA had received, and was counting, the ballots from Philadelphia last - that's why you see this trend.

Well, it aged well.
- underhill14

I am looking forward to the announcement that he called to congratulate President-elect Biden in his win

Sure this makes sense. If you consider those counties, Biden is averaging 66% of the vote. I would buy an an average of 69% for mail-in ballots all day long for these counties.

But those counties only represent 1M of total mail in ballots.........

If we bring in the the excluded 1.5M mail-in ballots that were cast in counties that voted 58% in favor of trump, the 69% falls completely apart.

Every vote counts, right? Not just the ones from the counties you prefer? I thought that is how it's suppose to work anyways.
- Tumbleweed

Who facking cares.
Trump looks like he is gonna lose. Nothing to do with voter fraud.

Fack off already with this BS.

As putin said in 2016, lose with some sort of dignity.

Hope you have a great weekend.

Could you add some context to this claim? Serious question, what ballots?
- underhill14

2.6M total mail-in ballots in PA; across all counties.

Ties the 163K Bucks county votes from above.

https://www.votespa.com/A...s/Counting-Dashboard.aspx