I hate betting against Crosby, but I just don't see the Penguins as a better team than the capitals.
- Scabeh

Agreed. I guess it's gambling that Jarry is further along than Samsonov (which is probably correct).

That defense has a chance to be really poop though for the Pens.

Toronto (5th):

The best team in Canada, but one my model loved a lot more than the staff, who had the team ranked ninth.

Classic Luszczyszyn .
- Scabeh

makes sense, the team on paper is good...but hasnt lived up to expectations.. so peoples feeling and opinions change...the shine is wearing off.

all the parts are there for some success...will it result in a 95 point team or 105 point team..winning a round in the playoffs...call me back in the spring

makes sense, the team on paper is good...but hasnt lived up to expectations.. so peoples feeling and opinions change...the shine is wearing off.

all the parts are there for some success...will it result in a 95 point team or 105 point team..winning a round in the playoffs...call me back in the spring
- senstroll

Difference between a good season and a bad one is so goddamn small these days.

italian swiss
- TheMussel

that would be a really good cheese..

I hate betting against Crosby, but I just don't see the Penguins as a better team than the capitals.
- Scabeh

your feelings align with the staff in his last article.

pens
model 8.9
staff 7.2

caps
model 6.5
staff 8.0

Difference between a good season and a bad one is so goddamn small these days.
- Scabeh

well, for starters missing the playoffs like the Leafs did is a bad season.

Difference between a good season and a bad one is so goddamn small these days.
- Scabeh

also this

your feelings align with the staff in his last article.

pens
model 8.9
staff 7.2

caps
model 6.5
staff 8.0
- senstroll

Clearly I should apply for a job at The Athletic. I'd fit right in.

well, for starters missing the playoffs like the Leafs did is a bad season.
- PatC80

It would be easy for me to jump on that and laughing about it.

But in my book, the Leafs made the playoffs. They had the record to make it, unlike the Habs for example who just lucked out with a new system.

Sure, the Leafs lost in the first series they faced, WHICH IS HILARIOUS. And obviously should be seen as a disappointment for you guys.

But claiming they missed the playoffs because of it doesn't make sense to me.

Clearly I should apply for a job at The Athletic. I'd fit right in.
- Scabeh

they need more people to be wrong?

I hate betting against Crosby, but I just don't see the Penguins as a better team than the capitals.
- Scabeh

I love Crosby. But I'm with you. Malkin is 34, playing like he's 40. Letang is 33, but he's not the same guy he was. They're going with Jarry over Murray which is probably a good thing. But they have Cody Ceci on defense. That can't be a good thing. I do like the additions of Zucker and Kapanen on the wings. Whether Kapanen ever fully pans out or not, we know he's a useful player. I don't like their D, their goalie is still a bit unknown, and outside of Crosby and a maybe motivated Malkin, I'm not sure if anything sets them apart.

Then you have Ovie. He's 35, playing like he's 25. Then they have supporting guys who make like unpleasant like Oshie and Wilson. Backstrom & Kuznetsov are still effective - and I didn't even realize Vrana's only 23. They have a very good D group, too. I guess the questions for them are: Is Samsonov ready and can Lundqvist spell him well if he isn't?

they need more people to be wrong?
- senstroll

Probably.

your feelings align with the staff in his last article.

pens
model 8.9
staff 7.2

caps
model 6.5
staff 8.0
- senstroll

Dom's model is absolutely full of holes, and he doesn't need to just "tweak" it like he does. He needs to revamp it. It strongly favours offense, while not doing enough to recognize defense. I think it also tries to compensate for recency bias by ignoring too heavily recent performance - meaning aging players get the benefit of past performance despite being in a state of obvious decline.

I love Crosby. But I'm with you. Malkin is 34, playing like he's 40. Letang is 33, but he's not the same guy he was. They're going with Jarry over Murray which is probably a good thing. But they have Cody Ceci on defense. That can't be a good thing. I do like the additions of Zucker and Kapanen on the wings. Whether Kapanen ever fully pans out or not, we know he's a useful player. I don't like their D, their goalie is still a bit unknown, and outside of Crosby and a maybe motivated Malkin, I'm not sure if anything sets them apart.

Then you have Ovie. He's 35, playing like he's 25. Then they have supporting guys who make like unpleasant like Oshie and Wilson. Backstrom & Kuznetsov are still effective - and I didn't even realize Vrana's only 23. They have a very good D group, too. I guess the questions for them are: Is Samsonov ready and can Lundqvist spell him well if he isn't?
- Monkeypunk

feels weird but Ceci is an upgrade to JJ no?

It would be easy for me to jump on that and laughing about it.

But in my book, the Leafs made the playoffs. They had the record to make it, unlike the Habs for example who just lucked out with a new system.

Sure, the Leafs lost in the first series they faced, WHICH IS HILARIOUS. And obviously should be seen as a disappointment for you guys.

But claiming they missed the playoffs because of it doesn't make sense to me.
- Scabeh

It should have been a 24 team playoff format, but they went with a play-in round to get to the playoffs.. The Leafs didn't get past the play-in round and didn't make the playoffs..

Had it be a normal season, the Leafs would have likely played TB round 1, and that could have ended poorly as well.

IMO, they missed the playoffs

I love Crosby. But I'm with you. Malkin is 34, playing like he's 40. Letang is 33, but he's not the same guy he was. They're going with Jarry over Murray which is probably a good thing. But they have Cody Ceci on defense. That can't be a good thing. I do like the additions of Zucker and Kapanen on the wings. Whether Kapanen ever fully pans out or not, we know he's a useful player. I don't like their D, their goalie is still a bit unknown, and outside of Crosby and a maybe motivated Malkin, I'm not sure if anything sets them apart.

Then you have Ovie. He's 35, playing like he's 25. Then they have supporting guys who make like unpleasant like Oshie and Wilson. Backstrom & Kuznetsov are still effective - and I didn't even realize Vrana's only 23. They have a very good D group, too. I guess the questions for them are: Is Samsonov ready and can Lundqvist spell him well if he isn't?
- Monkeypunk

Not sure how having the 7th best PPG in the NHL is playing like he's 40. Even Jagr couldn't do that at 40

7
Evgeni Malkin
2019-20
PIT
L
C
55
25
49
74
+7
58
1.35PPG

Dom's model is absolutely full of holes, and he doesn't need to just "tweak" it like he does. He needs to revamp it. It strongly favours offense, while not doing enough to recognize defense. I think it also tries to compensate for recency bias by ignoring too heavily recent performance - meaning aging players get the benefit of past performance despite being in a state of obvious decline.
- Monkeypunk

This. 100%

Not sure how having the 7th best PPG in the NHL is playing like he's 40. Even Jagr couldn't do that at 40

7
Evgeni Malkin
2019-20
PIT
L
C
55
25
49
74
+7
58
1.35PPG
- AdamFrench

in the play-in round, he wasn't himself

Not sure how having the 7th best PPG in the NHL is playing like he's 40. Even Jagr couldn't do that at 40

7
Evgeni Malkin
2019-20
PIT
L
C
55
25
49
74
+7
58
1.35PPG
- AdamFrench

Well in the playoffs, he played like he was 43.

Dom's model is absolutely full of holes, and he doesn't need to just "tweak" it like he does. He needs to revamp it. It strongly favours offense, while not doing enough to recognize defense. I think it also tries to compensate for recency bias by ignoring too heavily recent performance - meaning aging players get the benefit of past performance despite being in a state of obvious decline.
- Monkeypunk

sure...nothing is prefect....its sports.

but I look at the top 2 tiers and...yeah that makes sense....you can squabble over some of the middle..but like habsy mentioned....the diff between good and bad is like 2 bad shifts

sure...nothing is prefect....its sports.

but I look at the top 2 tiers and...yeah that makes sense....you can squabble over some of the middle..but like habsy mentioned....the diff between good and bad is like 2 bad shifts
- senstroll

or a weak goal against in a 5th and deciding game

Dom's model is absolutely full of holes, and he doesn't need to just "tweak" it like he does. He needs to revamp it. It strongly favours offense, while not doing enough to recognize defense. I think it also tries to compensate for recency bias by ignoring too heavily recent performance - meaning aging players get the benefit of past performance despite being in a state of obvious decline.
- Monkeypunk

Who has a better model? Who has been more right in their predictions while using stats and evidence to back it up?

Seriously I am curious.

Doms model has been more right than all the mainstream TSN/SN predictions. Is there a better model out there? I want to see it.

feels weird but Ceci is an upgrade to JJ no?
- senstroll

Uh. I don't know. Do you want to die by being jettisoned naked into space or spiked to the ground in the arctic? They're both terrible options. They both suck. And while you feel like you're dying slowly, ultimately you just go into a sad state of shock.

Maybe Ceci is better in the way that hobby store silly putty is better than dollar store silly putty. The hobby store stuff probably works a little better, but it's still pointless.

Well in the playoffs, he played like he was 43.
- Scabeh

So did Marner and Toews played like he was 26. I wouldn't put such fatalism in a 4 game string during one of the most unique moments in history.

Not sure how having the 7th best PPG in the NHL is playing like he's 40. Even Jagr couldn't do that at 40

7
Evgeni Malkin
2019-20
PIT
L
C
55
25
49
74
+7
58
1.35PPG
- AdamFrench

Just to add to what Scabs said - did you watch him in the playoffs? "He was unmotivated," was the best thing you could say about that performance.