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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Free agency rundown
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668710
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: "Give him a chance" -Barnaby36, PA
Joined: 06.25.2011

Oct 11 @ 10:37 PM ET
He actually had the cap space to sign a guy like Smith or Fast. Just has chosen not to get a guy like that to this point, or at least they haven't wanted to sign here.
- Tojo.

Hopefully he signs one of the guys left.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Oct 11 @ 10:39 PM ET
What deals really stand out that have been signed so far, that would be difference makers?

Craig Smith @3.1, Jesper Fast@2 and maybe [email protected]

Keep in mind, Smith and Fast we let go by teams that easily had capspace to resign them, and didn't seem to even make them an offer

And we could have afforded all 3, If GMJR wanted those guys, assuming (and big assumption) that they would come here for those $$. We have no idea about other guys (Hoffman, Toffoli, Dadanov) until they sign

- TheGame316

Not really true. Rangers not only have a ton if dead space, but they also have a lot of potential rookie bonuses. They do not have cap space.

Nashville does, but they're big game hunting.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Oct 11 @ 10:42 PM ET
I will give Rutherford the benefit of the doubt that Fast and Smith have signed with more interesting teams. Maybe e just never had shot and these guys want to win?
- Victoro311

Can't disagree that Boston and Carolina look a little better right now. Those were probably my top 2 targets, so I'd love to pretend we could sign them for the same amount, but maybe not.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Oct 11 @ 10:44 PM ET
Hopefully he signs one of the guys left.
- 668710

I wonder if Granlund could actually fall into our range?

I expect GMJR has one more signing up his sleeve, but it's sounds like it will be a RHD.
668710
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: "Give him a chance" -Barnaby36, PA
Joined: 06.25.2011

Oct 11 @ 10:47 PM ET
I wonder if Granlund could actually fall into our range?

I expect GMJR has one more signing up his sleeve, but it's sounds like it will be a RHD.

- Tojo.

I'd like Granlund, I hope Ruth doesn't go after a RHD though.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Oct 11 @ 10:50 PM ET
Not really true. Rangers not only have a ton if dead space, but they also have a lot of potential rookie bonuses. They do not have cap space.

Nashville does, but they're big game hunting.

- Tojo.


Rags show 21 Million in space including their dead money, 2 Million for an effective 3rd liner would be nothing. Nashville chose Cousins at 1.5 over Smith at 3.1, assuming Smith wanted to return
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Oct 11 @ 11:13 PM ET
Funny how everyone expects Matheson to fail...he’s more skilled than you might think.
- Barnaby36


I’m hoping for the best and maybe he might be alright. He’s not the worst statistical dman to ever play since analytics came out like jj was haha. I do remember him having that one decent year but otherwise I don’t know a whole lot about him minus some charts and graphs which seem quite contrary to each other. If he’s at least serviceable in the right role I’m happy.
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Oct 11 @ 11:16 PM ET
I wonder if Granlund could actually fall into our range?

I expect GMJR has one more signing up his sleeve, but it's sounds like it will be a RHD.

- Tojo.


I think as more playoff teams get near the cap it might mean these mid range salary guys might have to take a bigger hit unless they would just rather have more money on an Ottawa or Detroit type team. They hold out too long and all the serious contenders might not be able to afford anything
iceberg1234
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 10.11.2020

Oct 11 @ 11:25 PM ET
Probably will get roasted for this because doesnt include fancy analytics but whatever. First time post.

Consider 2016-2017 3rd line HBK which everyone agrees was awesome 3rd line scoring.
Goals - Kessel 26 (4PP), Hornqvist 21 (11PP), Bonino 18 (6PP). So 45 5v5 goals. With some notable PP production
With NO projection current you would have Rodrigues about 7G (blah), Jankowski 12G (avg of 3 years including bad last year) and Mccann 16G (last 2 year avg). Thats 35G

When we consider JJ and Shultz totalled 6G last year (similar for previous 3 years), which after own goals really amounts to 0G.
Matheson averages about 8-10G and Ruhwedel paces out for 4G in a season. Assuming that pair is no worse defensively than Schultz-JJ (hard to imagine), that makes up your 10G less from the 3rd line.

Not ideal lineup but seems there is a lot of pessimism. An upgrade over rodriguez and they are in much better shape imo
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Oct 11 @ 11:37 PM ET
Probably will get roasted for this because doesnt include fancy analytics but whatever. First time post.

Consider 2016-2017 3rd line HBK which everyone agrees was awesome 3rd line scoring.
Goals - Kessel 26 (4PP), Hornqvist 21 (11PP), Bonino 18 (6PP). So 45 5v5 goals. With some notable PP production
With NO projection current you would have Rodrigues about 7G (blah), Jankowski 12G (avg of 3 years including bad last year) and Mccann 16G (last 2 year avg). Thats 35G

When we consider JJ and Shultz totalled 6G last year (similar for previous 3 years), which after own goals really amounts to 0G.
Matheson averages about 8-10G and Ruhwedel paces out for 4G in a season. Assuming that pair is no worse defensively than Schultz-JJ (hard to imagine), that makes up your 10G less from the 3rd line.

Not ideal lineup but seems there is a lot of pessimism. An upgrade over rodriguez and they are in much better shape imo

- iceberg1234


The "H" in HBK was Hagelin, Who had 6 goals all EV

HBK really feasted in the latter half of 15/16 and in the first Cup run. They were more less broken up by 16/17
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Oct 11 @ 11:39 PM ET
I think as more playoff teams get near the cap it might mean these mid range salary guys might have to take a bigger hit unless they would just rather have more money on an Ottawa or Detroit type team. They hold out too long and all the serious contenders might not be able to afford anything
- 10inchTerror


It might appeal that technically we have a spot in our Top 6 (If Kapanen plays on the 3rd line)

Could entice a scorer to take a 1 year deal where he can safely put up some points and get some PP time playing with either Crosby or Malkin and to go back to the market next year
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Oct 11 @ 11:59 PM ET
Probably will get roasted for this because doesnt include fancy analytics but whatever. First time post.

Consider 2016-2017 3rd line HBK which everyone agrees was awesome 3rd line scoring.
Goals - Kessel 26 (4PP), Hornqvist 21 (11PP), Bonino 18 (6PP). So 45 5v5 goals. With some notable PP production
With NO projection current you would have Rodrigues about 7G (blah), Jankowski 12G (avg of 3 years including bad last year) and Mccann 16G (last 2 year avg). Thats 35G

When we consider JJ and Shultz totalled 6G last year (similar for previous 3 years), which after own goals really amounts to 0G.
Matheson averages about 8-10G and Ruhwedel paces out for 4G in a season. Assuming that pair is no worse defensively than Schultz-JJ (hard to imagine), that makes up your 10G less from the 3rd line.

Not ideal lineup but seems there is a lot of pessimism. An upgrade over rodriguez and they are in much better shape imo

- iceberg1234



As far as a winner or loser label on the offseason so far I’d go with winner since we shed jj bjug horny and Murray. I think most of the acquisitions have been pretty blah aside from kap.

Our D should be vastly improved simply by subtraction alone but hopefully new MM and Ruh can put up some points and work well in a sheltered role.

All the forwards are pretty meh and hopefully we got 1 more like AA or someone on the cheap for a year. They seem to be high compete players and hopefully they can form a decent line whether it’s putting kap on 3RW or maybe Jankowski gets back to his 17G form, or some other surprise boosts the bottom 6.

All in all I’m a little underwhelmed but JR didn’t JJ is this year but I’d still put us in the lower tier of the win column
Barnaby36
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Former Orpik44
Joined: 02.22.2013

Oct 12 @ 3:33 AM ET
Don't do this, I say you talk negative about him haha. But seriously at his peak I'm expecting Schultz level of play.
- 668710

Hahah
Let me get this straight: the guy won’t get a long leash here. Book it: if he plays bad “we all expected this from an expensive 3rd pairing D-man (who actually played 2nd pairing the year prior), he sucks” or “he did play Ok but only because he’s getting sheltered minutes” haha
Letang, a player I really like, (frank)s up a lot of times on 5 on 5 situations but generates offense. I expect Matheson to bring a bit of offense if he gets 2ndPP time and can use his shot occasionally. He will have his share of mistakes since he pushes for offense too. The guy can skate for his size.
abasin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.27.2018

Oct 12 @ 5:19 AM ET
Something that can’t be ignored is pressure from ownership to keep salaries down, which was probably a big influence in the Kap trade. Even if they fill another contract up to the cap, real dollars going out are still $75-77 million.

Way too many people focus on the past here and don’t acknowledge the financial restrictions of the team. Also the fact Pittsburgh probably isn’t the most attractive city to draw top free agents.
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Oct 12 @ 6:50 AM ET
Probably will get roasted for this because doesnt include fancy analytics but whatever. First time post.

Consider 2016-2017 3rd line HBK which everyone agrees was awesome 3rd line scoring.
Goals - Kessel 26 (4PP), Hornqvist 21 (11PP), Bonino 18 (6PP). So 45 5v5 goals. With some notable PP production
With NO projection current you would have Rodrigues about 7G (blah), Jankowski 12G (avg of 3 years including bad last year) and Mccann 16G (last 2 year avg). Thats 35G

When we consider JJ and Shultz totalled 6G last year (similar for previous 3 years), which after own goals really amounts to 0G.
Matheson averages about 8-10G and Ruhwedel paces out for 4G in a season. Assuming that pair is no worse defensively than Schultz-JJ (hard to imagine), that makes up your 10G less from the 3rd line.

Not ideal lineup but seems there is a lot of pessimism. An upgrade over rodriguez and they are in much better shape imo

- iceberg1234


So your point is that the HBK line was good for 30% more ESGs than we should expect from this one? Thats quite a bit.

I appreciate where you are going with this but just bear in mind that McCann goals will be inflated significantly due to quality of linemates. He spent time on Sids wing and also slotted into the 2C role a did with better wingers. Now he will be the guy who has to carry the load.

If the Pens could somehow convince Hoffman to come here and play the same role Kessel did I would be pretty happy.
668710
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: "Give him a chance" -Barnaby36, PA
Joined: 06.25.2011

Oct 12 @ 7:04 AM ET
So your point is that the HBK line was good for 30% more ESGs than we should expect from this one? Thats quite a bit.

I appreciate where you are going with this but just bear in mind that McCann goals will be inflated significantly due to quality of linemates. He spent time on Sids wing and also slotted into the 2C role a did with better wingers. Now he will be the guy who has to carry the load.

If the Pens could somehow convince Hoffman to come here and play the same role Kessel did I would be pretty happy.

- MacPatty

I haven't seen Hoffman play in years, is he like Kessel, or more like Neal?
668710
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: "Give him a chance" -Barnaby36, PA
Joined: 06.25.2011

Oct 12 @ 7:07 AM ET
Well there's another off my list, Vesey league min.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Oct 12 @ 7:36 AM ET
Well there's another off my list, Vesey league min.
- 668710

Eh. Vesey kinda sucks. Even when he put up points in his first year or two he was scoring at a poor rate and was more of a product of ice time. Maybe more useful than, like, Jankowski, but not sure he’s a huge upgrade to what we have.
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Oct 12 @ 8:13 AM ET
I haven't seen Hoffman play in years, is he like Kessel, or more like Neal?
- 668710


More like Kessel than Neal but really he fits about right in the middle of the two. Great shot, better skater than Neal, grittier than Kessel, sucks at defense like both of them.

If Hoffman was right handed, this would be a no brainer but if you are going to get him in a 1 year deal he will want to feature on a PP1.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Oct 12 @ 8:22 AM ET
Rags show 21 Million in space including their dead money, 2 Million for an effective 3rd liner would be nothing. Nashville chose Cousins at 1.5 over Smith at 3.1, assuming Smith wanted to return
- TheGame316

NYR have 11-12M in projected bonuses and 4 arbitration cases. While they could push the rookie bonuses, they're trying to clean up their cap situation.

If you have an Athletic sub:
https://theathletic.com/2...-jesper-fast-free-agency/
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Oct 12 @ 8:22 AM ET
I'm just going to wait patiently for the master plan to be revealed... what we have so far is an unfinished road map. We know the direction which is younger and faster, but current roster assembly doesn't seem any more likely for success than last year.
123Kid
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: PA
Joined: 07.03.2017

Oct 12 @ 8:25 AM ET
As far as a winner or loser label on the offseason so far I’d go with winner since we shed jj bjug horny and Murray. I think most of the acquisitions have been pretty blah aside from kap.
- 10inchTerror



I agree with the thought that we are a winner this offseason.

Hornqvist deal:
If you look at the Horny trade he didn't have to retain any cap space and was able to get a younger player with potential to be on our 2nd pairing by years end. Some people say we should have bought out Horny instead, but why spend our only buyout option on him instead of making this deal? It also acquired a player which allowed JJ to be expendable.


Bjugstad deal:
It wasn't the best deal, but with retaining cap space he was able to free up some space and instead of buying him out. It allowed us to buyout JJ.

I think many forget each team is only allowed one player for buyout this offseason. I think JR did a great job in getting us cap space. I think the Kap deal is a little better now that E-Rod came back and signed so cheap. I like the offseason so far. I even like the College free agents we signed. Hopefully Poulin could still land a spot on the 3rd line. We still have space and there are still options available. Lets see what else we do.

Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Oct 12 @ 8:33 AM ET
So your point is that the HBK line was good for 30% more ESGs than we should expect from this one? Thats quite a bit.

I appreciate where you are going with this but just bear in mind that McCann goals will be inflated significantly due to quality of linemates. He spent time on Sids wing and also slotted into the 2C role a did with better wingers. Now he will be the guy who has to carry the load.

If the Pens could somehow convince Hoffman to come here and play the same role Kessel did I would be pretty happy.

- MacPatty

Last year McCann barely played with Sid and Sid didn't set him up for a single goal.

When McCann was the 2C, he wasn't playing with any top 6 talent since Rust and Guentzel were with Malkin. He played with Simon, Kahun, Hornqvist, and Galchenyuk. Granted, that's better than what he has now, but it's 3rd line talent.
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Oct 12 @ 9:49 AM ET
I agree with the thought that we are a winner this offseason.

Hornqvist deal:
If you look at the Horny trade he didn't have to retain any cap space and was able to get a younger player with potential to be on our 2nd pairing by years end. Some people say we should have bought out Horny instead, but why spend our only buyout option on him instead of making this deal? It also acquired a player which allowed JJ to be expendable.


Bjugstad deal:
It wasn't the best deal, but with retaining cap space he was able to free up some space and instead of buying him out. It allowed us to buyout JJ.

I think many forget each team is only allowed one player for buyout this offseason. I think JR did a great job in getting us cap space. I think the Kap deal is a little better now that E-Rod came back and signed so cheap. I like the offseason so far. I even like the College free agents we signed. Hopefully Poulin could still land a spot on the 3rd line. We still have space and there are still options available. Lets see what else we do.

- 123Kid



Pitt seems to be a good college FA destination. Not that anyone has ever became a top 6 player but I guess the way JR trades picks and prospects it’s a good way to get to the nhl without being too blocked.

I think we could of prob signed a few better FA’s to similar priced deals but all in all I do think the team is better than the last couple years.

JR also isn’t one to stand pat mid season if needed. I do think petts gets traded at some point with how JR talks about new MM, if he lives up to his expectations. Hoping also Velluci and Reirden can tweak some PP and defensive schemes more so than the ex coaches.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Oct 12 @ 9:55 AM ET
Probably will get roasted for this because doesnt include fancy analytics but whatever. First time post.

Consider 2016-2017 3rd line HBK which everyone agrees was awesome 3rd line scoring.
Goals - Kessel 26 (4PP), Hornqvist 21 (11PP), Bonino 18 (6PP). So 45 5v5 goals. With some notable PP production
With NO projection current you would have Rodrigues about 7G (blah), Jankowski 12G (avg of 3 years including bad last year) and Mccann 16G (last 2 year avg). Thats 35G

When we consider JJ and Shultz totalled 6G last year (similar for previous 3 years), which after own goals really amounts to 0G.
Matheson averages about 8-10G and Ruhwedel paces out for 4G in a season. Assuming that pair is no worse defensively than Schultz-JJ (hard to imagine), that makes up your 10G less from the 3rd line.

Not ideal lineup but seems there is a lot of pessimism. An upgrade over rodriguez and they are in much better shape imo

- iceberg1234


I think the pessimism comes from seeing what other players have signed for and the fact that we could have tried to get some really good value signings and it seems like the old “GMJR wants this guy so he’s getting this guy” kind of thing.

I don’t hate the Erod signing. He didn’t really get a fair shake in Pittsburgh so my thought is... why’s even bring him back? Why not try for a bigger fish? The Jankowski signing just seems odd. Bleuger is a decent enough 4C. I can’t look at anything Jankowski does and think legit 3C with all the names signing for bargain contracts.
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