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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Questions galore as the Sabres ready for the opening of NHL free agency
Author Message
Ratsreign
Florida Panthers
Location: Mo can stay awhile, FL
Joined: 10.27.2017

Oct 13 @ 3:31 PM ET
I'd assume so. He said he wanted and planned to finish his career in Minny.

It is what it is.

I hope Staal is great because I don't wan to lose Eichel.

- sbroads24

I think he still can play. The mentor factor can’t be overlooked, either. This was a great move for Buffalo, I think.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Oct 13 @ 3:33 PM ET
My honest glass not half full/glass not half empty analysis; it's just a glass:

Staal trade was great - got the better player at less of a cost to fill the huge 2c hole. Whether or not Guerrin is insane, i don't care - Adams killed it. Staal is older but is in great shape and looked very good last year.

Adams misjudged the depressed market and overpaid by about $700k each on Girgensons and Eakins. I like the players BUT $1.5m to cap is significant

Ironically, he wouldn't overpay for Kahun, offering him market value of $1.4m per. Kahun misjudged the market, should fire his agent and will probably make around $1m a day. I don't care about Kahun

The 3 minimum contract signings, nothing to judge here as they don't impact the cap nor the lineup (hopefully)

Hall signing was amazing, it had a lot to do with Ralph but also a lot ot do with nobody else offering him $8m.

Summary:

The good - Hall and staal, plus hopefully the youngins take a step forward. this team is MUCH better than last year and is a Kuemper away form being a solid playoff team

The bad - all this talk about analytics as part of the decision making bullsh*t. None of the signings, other than Hall, are analytical darlings (most of them are actually really bad), Choosing hughes over Rossi probably isn't what the analytics would tell you do and trading up in the 2nd round is against basis analytical science.

I'm extremely happy with what's happened, but, it could have been better with a more experienced GM who used analyhtics.

Is this fair?

- turbo044


According to Taco, both Rieder and Irwin are making the team per the Sabres. I sure hope that is not the case.

The interesting thing is the market hurt the Sabres in overpayments to Girgensons and Eakin but they could make up for it in signing Kahun at a value deal.

They could, in theory, end up signing all three for the same value collectively I thought they would have before I saw the contracts they gave to Eakin and Girgensons.
sgk56
Buffalo Sabres
Location: WNY, NY
Joined: 06.16.2019

Oct 13 @ 3:33 PM ET

- TheSabresTaco

Was on a checking line matching up w the opponents top line.

Did u expect a positive number??
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Oct 13 @ 3:34 PM ET
So change the story when the stats don't fit rhe narrative.

Dude, seriously you usually are on point. But this staal take is an all time bad take.

- Mentalorgasm5

Goals and assists aren't the primary stats I'd use to gauge value.

Marleau's expected goals for % was the worst of any Maple Leaf regular forward in his two years there. He was legit terrible there. And they paid a 1st for someone to take him

He was above replacement the three years prior in San Jose.



Mentalorgasm5
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "F-" Robert, NY
Joined: 06.29.2007

Oct 13 @ 3:38 PM ET
Goals and assists aren't the primary stats I'd use to gauge value.

Marleau's expected goals for % was the worst of any Maple Leaf regular forward in his two years there. He was legit terrible there. And they paid a 1st for someone to take him

He was above replacement the three years prior in San Jose.

- sbroads24
so at the age of 39 and 40 a nhl player had a drop? Who would have predicted.

A truly unpredictable and unprecedented drop in that early of a nhl career.

But I get it, you don't want to like the move.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Oct 13 @ 3:42 PM ET
I would have taken Rossi and Perfetti over Quinn, but we'll see. I threw my TV remote at the wall when the Bills took Allen over Rosen, so what do I know??
- turbo044


Time will tell.

It’s not like Quinn is an automatic bust.

I ultimately think he’ll wear the Blue and Gold and be a top 6 forward however I thought Rossi and Perfetti had higher ceilings.

Like you said though, we could be both wrong
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Oct 13 @ 3:44 PM ET
so at the age of 39 and 40 a nhl player had a drop? Who would have predicted.

A truly unpredictable and unprecedented drop in that early of a nhl career.

But I get it, you don't want to like the move.

- Mentalorgasm5

All I’m saying is it isn’t linear sometimes.

Staal went from looking like he was cooked, to scoring 40 goals, to them regressing back to just pretty good, all within a 4 year period

He could be great, he could be done, or he could be the same.

It’s not an easy thing to predict when they are that old
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Oct 13 @ 3:46 PM ET
I value your opinion Lunaion.
👍

I see 1 difference between lazar and girgs.
7 goal differential last season
Gurgs 12
Lazar 5


Everyone else in the league gets paid accordingly based on goal scoring. Why is it different for girgensons?

Ralph knows how much he will use him and what to expect.

The past teams and coaches were terrible. Bylsma personally stifled gurgs.

- Boss34


You do?
Girgs 12 G's, 924 TOI, 69 games, $1.6m...Goals per $1.00 = 0.000008
Lazar 5 G's, 450 TOI, 38 games $0.7m...Goals per $1.00 = 0.000007

At $2,200,000 Girgs better score 17+ goals to remain even
turbo044
Joined: 02.18.2009

Oct 13 @ 3:48 PM ET
According to Taco, both Rieder and Irwin are making the team per the Sabres. I sure hope that is not the case.

The interesting thing is the market hurt the Sabres in overpayments to Girgensons and Eakin but they could make up for it in signing Kahun at a value deal.

They could, in theory, end up signing all three for the same value collectively I thought they would have before I saw the contracts they gave to Eakin and Girgensons.

- kingcong39


Rieder is very good on the PK. He had a bad season last year but tied a NHL record by having 3 shorthanded goals in the playoffs.

Irwin is a 7th Dman hopefully

Interesting rumor from another site: Calgary/Buffalo talks heating up. Names being thrown around: Riitich, Monahan, Gaudreau, Hanifan, Reinhart, Risto, Hutton,
Miller.

Riitich doesn't do much for me, but he's better than Hutton at the same cap hit. A hanifan for RHD swap makes a lot of sense, Hanifan is Jack's best friend and is a LHD. We all know Johnny hockey and Monahan; wouldn't be both of them just one of them.
SDSabre
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 02.05.2014

Oct 13 @ 3:52 PM ET
With the possibility of a shortened season, I think we need to look at a % rate based on your very fair suggestions

Under 7 out of 82 games - SD wins
7-9 goals out of 82 games- push
10 goals or above out of 82 - Boss wins

Let's continue this discussion.
And get someone responsible (maybe ion) to verify the terms.

- Boss34


Fine by me, percentage wise it is. Since I’m giving less of what he’s done in the past (one season percentage under 7 for 82 vs two seasons over 10) I request throw out an injury clause if played over 20 games (meaning anything under 20, also a push, anything over and we use that amount prorated) loser changes their avatar for a month.
Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Oct 13 @ 3:52 PM ET
All I’m saying is it isn’t linear sometimes.

Staal went from looking like he was cooked, to scoring 40 goals, to them regressing back to just pretty good, all within a 4 year period

He could be great, he could be done, or he could be the same.

It’s not an easy thing to predict when they are that old

- sbroads24


He’s here for one year, analytics suggest he has one more year good year him at the very least.

I have yet to see a Center traded or signed in FA that I would prefer over Staal at the moment as a 2C option.

I’m with you in regards to the bottom 6 and the fact we still have too many RHD. We need to upgrade the goaltending.

Staal is a positive though, his analytics are better than Monahan’s whom was the flavour of the month.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Oct 13 @ 3:53 PM ET
I have plenty of internet points and an avatar (the standard around here) I'm willing to risk.

I'll take over 7 for girgs .

I don't think anyone other than broads has been more wrong in regards to almost every post over the past few days. Congratulations 39

Bad takes meter over the past 5 day's

1. Broads
2. 39
3. Stripes

Way too much ka-boo-hoo-hun out of 3 of you guys
Relentless bashing over every move , management and ownership.

Be happy, we have a 2c and 2018 league mvp now.
I'll trust these guys and the moves across the organization this past week over ka-boo-hoo-hun er's

- Boss34


To be fair, at $2.2m, the over under is 17.5 G's; not 7
For Lazar, at $800k, the over under is 6.4 Gs (should be less because the C position requires much more disciplined play defensively)

Now who do you take?
Thought so.
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Oct 13 @ 3:59 PM ET
I have absolutely nothing against paying for players that want to be in buffalo and exceed their previous contract.

Is girgensons now the highest paid 4th liner in the nhl?

He played closer to 3rd line minutes on a shutdown line.
Almost 14 minutes a game.

There would have been a 12 -14 team bidding war for girgs, especially between the teams that missed out on hall 😉

Hes making $530,000 less than an average nhl player.

- Boss34


Not a deal I'm going to lose any sleep over. I think Larsson is the better player, and he took a pay cut and a 2 year deal. I think Girgs was looking at the same on the open market. Just a strange move imo.

Probably wouldn't have commented if you didn't say he out-played his previous deal. I don't think he did.
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

Oct 13 @ 4:01 PM ET
To be fair, at $2.2m, the over under is 17.5 G's; not 7
For Lazar, at $800k, the over under is 6.4 Gs (should be less because the C position requires much more disciplined play defensively)

Now who do you take?
Thought so.

- IonSabres



As much as I respect your opinion, I trust the Sabres to make the correct decisions in regards to players and WHAT ELSE THEY BRING TO AN ORGANIZATION THAT NOBODY WANTS TO PLAY FOR.

Goals/ points is an easy metric to make a wager.

Imagine coming in here and trying to determine how much grit and Buffalo love a played played with in yesterday's game?

It was a good signing and the market wasn't quite set (either way) when they signed girgs.

I love the deal.
I love Lazars deal too

Coaches should keep guys they like and signing a ufa prior too the ufa signing period ='s more $$$$
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Oct 13 @ 4:01 PM ET
He’s here for one year, analytics suggest he has one more year good year him at the very least.

I have yet to see a Center traded or signed in FA that I would prefer over Staal at the moment as a 2C option.

I’m with you in regards to the bottom 6 and the fact we still have too many RHD. We need to upgrade the goaltending.

Staal is a positive though, his analytics are better than Monahan’s whom was the flavour of the month.

- Pegullaville


This
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

Oct 13 @ 4:02 PM ET
You do?
Girgs 12 G's, 924 TOI, 69 games, $1.6m...Goals per $1.00 = 0.000008
Lazar 5 G's, 450 TOI, 38 games $0.7m...Goals per $1.00 = 0.000007

At $2,200,000 Girgs better score 17+ goals to remain even

- IonSabres



Do skinner next . Your on a roll ion ....👍🙊
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Oct 13 @ 4:05 PM ET
He’s here for one year, analytics suggest he has one more year good year him at the very least.

I have yet to see a Center traded or signed in FA that I would prefer over Staal at the moment as a 2C option.

I’m with you in regards to the bottom 6 and the fact we still have too many RHD. We need to upgrade the goaltending.

Staal is a positive though, his analytics are better than Monahan’s whom was the flavour of the month.

- Pegullaville

I think odds are he’s at least serviceable.

If he’s not though woo boy we have very bad centers behind him. Unless Cozens is awesome
Cup Crazy '07
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 11.29.2006

Oct 13 @ 4:07 PM ET
I would have taken Rossi and Perfetti over Quinn, but we'll see. I threw my TV remote at the wall when the Bills took Allen over Rosen, so what do I know??
- turbo044


LOL! I was devastated about that, too! It's why I'm not a GM!
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Oct 13 @ 4:09 PM ET
I think odds are he’s at least serviceable.

If he’s not though woo boy we have very bad centers behind him. Unless Cozens is awesome

- sbroads24


When Staal did his presser he talked about the impact Rod Brind'Amour and Mark Recchi had on him.

In 10 years thats going to be Cozens talking about Staal
Mentalorgasm5
Buffalo Sabres
Location: "F-" Robert, NY
Joined: 06.29.2007

Oct 13 @ 4:10 PM ET
I think odds are he’s at least serviceable.

If he’s not though woo boy we have very bad centers behind him. Unless Cozens is awesome

- sbroads24

So what your saying is the GM brought someone in for the year in case a 19/20 year old isnt ready to center the 2nd line.

Yeah this adams guy (frank)ing blows.
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

Oct 13 @ 4:11 PM ET
Fine by me, percentage wise it is. Since I’m giving less of what he’s done in the past (one season percentage under 7 for 82 vs two seasons over 10) I request throw out an injury clause if played over 20 games (meaning anything under 20, also a push, anything over and we use that amount prorated) loser changes their avatar for a month.
- SDSabre



Let me sleep on this before committing. All big life decisions need time and thought 🙂

20 games played and over certainly seems reasonable. 👍

20 game minimum for zemgus girgensons in the (next) nhl season regardless of teams . (In case of a trade)

Goal scoring determined by goal % per game.

Under 7 ( SDSabre) wins
7-9 push
10 or above (Boss34) wins

As for the avatar, let me have my son figure out how to add/change it on my laptop before committing %100.

Pegullaville
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Toronto
Joined: 03.16.2011

Oct 13 @ 4:13 PM ET
When Staal did his presser he talked about the impact Rod Brind'Amour and Mark Recchi had on him.

In 10 years thats going to be Cozens talking about Staal

- jcragcrumple


Bold, but I like it.
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

Oct 13 @ 4:16 PM ET
Not a deal I'm going to lose any sleep over. I think Larsson is the better player, and he took a pay cut and a 2 year deal. I think Girgs was looking at the same on the open market. Just a strange move imo.

Probably wouldn't have commented if you didn't say he out-played his previous deal. I don't think he did.

- Lunaion



I've always really valued your opinion and appreciate the discussion.

When they signed girgs last season, or 2 seasons ago (last contract) for $ 1.6. Were the expectations 12 goals and 5th in the team in goal scoring?

Because, only 4 guys had more goals last season

10 million
9 million
3.75 million attached to a mega superstar
Rookie deal

1.6 was a steal .
8 million for 60 goals %, wise type steal of a deal.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Oct 13 @ 4:17 PM ET
So what your saying is the GM brought someone in for the year in case a 19/20 year old isnt ready to center the 2nd line.

Yeah this adams guy (frank)ing blows.

- Mentalorgasm5

But you hate the Cozens pick and think he’s a future 3C. So we’re searching for another 2C in one year again.

Unless maybe your tune is shifting. Or maybe you’re the only allowed to dislike draft things. Which is it?
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Oct 13 @ 4:18 PM ET
Bold, but I like it.
- Pegullaville


If I were the Sabres brass, I'd glue Cozens to Staal. Put him on his line. Put their stalls together. Put Cozens in his house
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