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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Offseason Primer
Author Message
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Sep 18 @ 12:57 PM ET
It's tough to predict how much players may sign in this new era with how the pandemic impacts league and team finances. I'll admit I was being pretty conservative on the salary values for Kubalik and Strome.
- Theo Fox


I still think since he is not arbitration eligible, that Stan gives Strome the minimum qualifying offer. Very few teams have space, and I can't see many, if any, offer sheeting him.

Tell him sorry, but it's for one year.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Sep 18 @ 1:19 PM ET
If Willie Nylander's AAV is $7 mil., I think it will take more than $6 mil. for either of them to sign an offer sheet.

Brock Nelson';s AAV is $6 mil.

- LAHawk

I don't think you can look at current contracts in assessing the next few years contracts. Sooner or later the flat cap is going to rear its ugly head.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Sep 18 @ 1:20 PM ET
It's tough to predict how much players may sign in this new era with how the pandemic impacts league and team finances. I'll admit I was being pretty conservative on the salary values for Kubalik and Strome.
- Theo Fox

I think you are spot on Theo. Sooner or later the flat cap is going to rear its ugly head.
DrewDawg
Joined: 05.10.2016

Sep 18 @ 1:24 PM ET
Thanks again for another great post. I was going to post last night on the coaches write up, but I was waiting for the GM/Off-season one.

The real question for me is what is ownership/Stans true expectations for this upcoming season with our roster. Does he think he can win a cup with this group? Is he going to try and squeeze 1 more year out of “the core” before trying to truly rebuild properly? Just like in Talladega Nights, “if you’re not 1st you’re last”.

Signing Crawford or trading for a 30 yr old goalie is just putting a band aid on, in my opinion. We won the cups with young “core” in their prime early-mid 20’s, lead by generational talents in Kane, Keith, Toews, and Seabrook. Big Buff, Bolland, Brouwer, Shaw, hammer, bickell and the trades for Sharp, Ladd, leddy & Frolik...all were in 20’s and meshed together. We then topped it off with Hossa & Soupy in FA....but we had already drafted/traded most of the other pieces.

Keith is still good but he’s now.... 37. Seabrook is a warrior.... but he’s 35 and not sure how mobile he is. Even Kane & Toews are now 31 & 32....with a lot of miles on them.

The team will have to make some pretty unpopular moves coming soon. They have the Cubs & Sox to show a tear down...a complete rebuild is how to be competitive again in today’s salary cap era. Yes, nothing is 100% we could draft another Cam Barker, but that’s why you pay & trust your scouts (which I’m not saying I actually do; looking at some of the Montreal trades).

I’m not sure if they can even trade him while on IR (plus he would have to waive NMC), but we would need to take a bad contract back in moving Seabrook this year (Eriksson in Vancouver maybe); or after the season try and give up prospects/picks for Seattle to draft in expansion draft.

The larger question associated with a rebuild, is the other core members want to wait the 3-4 years for the 18 year old prospects (if drafted this year) to mature into their prime.

The hawks do have quite a few interesting mid level prospects that I am hoping to see more of at Rockford this upcoming year. I survived (it was painful at times to watch) going to Hawks games in the early 2000’s. But, I would do that again if it meant we had a shot at 2010, 2013, and 2015 again. Ottawa picked a great deep draft to have 7 picks in the first 2 rounds.

I apologize again for the length on this.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Sep 18 @ 1:28 PM ET
I think you are spot on Theo. Sooner or later the flat cap is going to rear its ugly head.
- rpeters01


Yes but it is like life, the stars are going to get paid, the middle and lower class are the ones to get squeezed. Barzal, Sergachev are going to get paid, the Killorn's Beavillier's are going to get squeezed.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Sep 18 @ 1:39 PM ET
What country is he talking about?
- powerenforcer

Kilometers would mean he was only 62% as good, a "D" grade. That sounds more like Leddy.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 18 @ 1:42 PM ET
Obviously, this is not set in stone and may change at any point in time, but re-tweeted by Friedman:

https://ontariohockeyleag...-dates-for-2020-21-season

I haven't seen anything from the other leagues.

- Chunk

Thanks for posting the OHL key dates. I saw lots of press releases about this yesterday and know the other junior leagues will follow suit in due time.

The NCAA is trickier with the major divisions already postponing play for fall semester. I highly doubt any of the divisions reverse course like the Big 10 did with football.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 18 @ 1:44 PM ET
Don't even think about it. This screams Kunitz.
- Chunk

The Blackhawks do like their veterans at the end of their rope, i.e. the Lyle Odeleins of the world. Kunitz is a good example, too.

Hopefully the organization stays true to the new professed direction of youth and innovation.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Sep 18 @ 1:48 PM ET
Yes but it is like life, the stars are going to get paid, the middle and lower class are the ones to get squeezed. Barzal, Sergachev are going to get paid, the Killorn's Beavillier's are going to get squeezed.
- LAHawk

I don't think there's enough money out there even to run it that way. If you're already at the cap and have RFA's, UFA's and already some escalating contracts on the books (see Debrinkat), you can't pay it. Then there are going to be cash strapped teams. The rumor is the Yotes are trying to get $10m under the cap? Where revenues may actually be. Not every team is in as dire straits (one of my all time favorite bands) as them but I'll bet there are going to be other teams with tight budgets.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 18 @ 1:49 PM ET
I'm assuming that Cedar Rapids was because of the derecho?
- Chunk

That is correct from what reports are saying.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 18 @ 1:57 PM ET
I still think since he is not arbitration eligible, that Stan gives Strome the minimum qualifying offer. Very few teams have space, and I can't see many, if any, offer sheeting him.

Tell him sorry, but it's for one year.

- Chunk

I think that's a strong chance that could be Strome's reality. It's another way to present him with a "show me" deal to prove he can reach full potential then earn a bigger pay day later.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 18 @ 1:59 PM ET
I think you are spot on Theo. Sooner or later the flat cap is going to rear its ugly head.
- rpeters01

Sucks for the players but it's a pill they'll have to swallow in exchange for job security.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Sep 18 @ 2:03 PM ET
True, but if someone offers Serachev $6.3 mil, he is more than worth a 1st and a 3rd. Of course the player has to sign an offer sheet, so I doubt if Detroit offered it if Sergachev or any other RFA would sign it.

Also with the flat cap, you don't have to overpay either. Is Cirelli worth a second rounder at $4.1? Yes he is, again causes Tampa to really think who they want to lose.

- LAHawk


Why wouldn't they sign it, especially since he cap is stagnant
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Sep 18 @ 2:05 PM ET
Sucks for the players but it's a pill they'll have to swallow in exchange for job security.
- Theo Fox


I still think good players will still get paid, it just seems to be what always happen, lot of 1 to 2 mil contracts for 3-4th line players
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Sep 18 @ 2:16 PM ET
I think that's a strong chance that could be Strome's reality. It's another way to present him with a "show me" deal to prove he can reach full potential then earn a bigger pay day later.
- Theo Fox

The $2.1 offer somebody said guaranteeing a 2nd round choice made a lot of sense.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Sep 18 @ 2:26 PM ET
Two USHL teams announce they will not play at all during the 2020-21 season due to extensive arena damage (Cedar Rapids) and the inability to host fans (Madison).

Ryan Suter is a co-owner of the Madison team.

Hopefully the Chicago Steel can continue to play.

- Theo Fox

Any players on those teams expected to be drafted?

I assume (only "assume") that the players on those teams won't be playing this year - what happens to the players who are drafted - too young for the "A", can't go back to juniors...?

Again - don't know if any players from those teams are on anyone's draft list.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Sep 18 @ 2:46 PM ET
Why wouldn't they sign it, especially since he cap is stagnant
- BetweenTheDots


Because a Detroit is far away from being a contending team, everyone would rather play on a winner.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 18 @ 2:47 PM ET
I still think good players will still get paid, it just seems to be what always happen, lot of 1 to 2 mil contracts for 3-4th line players
- BetweenTheDots

LAHawk stated what is a likely scenario with the top players getting paid handsomely while the bottom 6 forwards and bottom 3 defensemen plus extra skaters will get $1M-$2M as you said.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 18 @ 2:49 PM ET
Any players on those teams expected to be drafted?

I assume (only "assume") that the players on those teams won't be playing this year - what happens to the players who are drafted - too young for the "A", can't go back to juniors...?

Again - don't know if any players from those teams are on anyone's draft list.

- StLBravesFan

One option I read in a report is players on USHL teams that aren't able to play could request a transfer. Not sure yet of the mechanics of how that works.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Sep 18 @ 2:52 PM ET
Any players on those teams expected to be drafted?

I assume (only "assume") that the players on those teams won't be playing this year - what happens to the players who are drafted - too young for the "A", can't go back to juniors...?

Again - don't know if any players from those teams are on anyone's draft list.

- StLBravesFan


Possibly go to EU?
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Sep 18 @ 2:57 PM ET
NY Yankees just tied a major league record with 5 HRs in an inning - they also set a record by hitting 6 HRs in each of 3 consecutive games (19 total).

Chicks dig the long ball....
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Sep 18 @ 3:12 PM ET
Charlie Roumeleotis + dim lit bulb who just regurgitates what he thinks he heard.

Why this fresh thought originates is Crawford was shocked at the managemnet's low ball offer and his reps came back with 4.5 million.
Darcy us younger and despite injuries is a guy who still has upside and is younger, and the Blackhawks are not looking for the ultimate goaltender, because they are not even on the borderlines of being considered a Cup challenger.

- wiz1901


My question with trying to go the Kuemper route is what we have to send their way. If there’s several teams interested, the cost may be prohibitive. Unless there are other pieces included, making it a hockey trade instead of a bidding war. No idea what that would look like.

LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Sep 18 @ 3:19 PM ET
My question with trying to go the Kuemper route is what we have to send their way. If there’s several teams interested, the cost may be prohibitive. Unless there are other pieces included, making it a hockey trade instead of a bidding war. No idea what that would look like.
- walleyeb1


They are looking to replace their lost draft picks
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Sep 18 @ 3:28 PM ET
One option I read in a report is players on USHL teams that aren't able to play could request a transfer. Not sure yet of the mechanics of how that works.
- Theo Fox

I would think they are in breach of contract by not playing and they can do anything they want including stay with the team? But I'm not a lawyer... If other leagues are playing they can use that as reason for the breach. I am assuming they're not getting paid.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 18 @ 3:29 PM ET
Summary of key offseason dates in the NHL: (click the image to make it larger)

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