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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Stuart: Weaponizing Cap Space
Author Message
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Sep 17 @ 1:55 PM ET
The issue for most teams is the cap hit, not the dollar amount. If they were to target players like Eriksson ($6.0Mx2yrs AAV), Lucic ($5.3Mx3yrs AAV), Okposo ($6.0M/3yrs AAV), or Seabrook ($6.9Mx4yrs), they would get back a whole lot more than just a mid-round pick. And in each case, the dollars remaining are substantially less than the cap hit on paper, especially in a buyout scenario where you don't include owed signing bonus money in the calculation.
- khawk


I'd be okay with any of those players except Seabrook. That guy is on contract for 4 more years, makes 5mil in real $, and is not an NHL calibre player (and hasn't been for awhile now). at least the other 3 can still fill bottom line spots and provide SOMETHING......seabrook might not crack the top six in Belleville

the ONLY way I would consider taking on that deal is if the hawks included Debrincat or Dach.....which they obviously wouldn't do.

Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 17 @ 2:55 PM ET
I'd be okay with any of those players except Seabrook. That guy is on contract for 4 more years, makes 5mil in real $, and is not an NHL calibre player (and hasn't been for awhile now). at least the other 3 can still fill bottom line spots and provide SOMETHING......seabrook might not crack the top six in Belleville
the ONLY way I would consider taking on that deal is if the hawks included Debrincat or Dach.....which they obviously wouldn't do.

- sensarmy_11

Well, my point was that these would be trade targets only because of the relative cap hit/dollar value of their buyout, based on the assumption that subverting the salary floor might be a strategic priority for 2020/21. If you're expecting any kind of roster benefit, then I don't know why they would even consider these deals. So the idea isn't whether Seabrook is an NHL d-man... the idea is just how much would the Blackhawks pay to make that horror-show of a contract vanish, given that he also has a NMC clause that will cost them another d-man in the expansion draft. The answer might not be Dach or Debrincat, but it may well be something like the #17 overall pick this year.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Sep 17 @ 4:01 PM ET
Well, my point was that these would be trade targets only because of the relative cap hit/dollar value of their buyout, based on the assumption that subverting the salary floor might be a strategic priority for 2020/21. If you're expecting any kind of roster benefit, then I don't know why they would even consider these deals. So the idea isn't whether Seabrook is an NHL d-man... the idea is just how much would the Blackhawks pay to make that horror-show of a contract vanish, given that he also has a NMC clause that will cost them another d-man in the expansion draft. The answer might not be Dach or Debrincat, but it may well be something like the #17 overall pick this year.
- khawk


I’m not expecting a roster benefit, but the Sens need to avoid taking on a crippling deal, which seabrook is. If he had 1-2 years left, fine, but 4 years is nuts.......need WAAAAAYYYYY more than the 17th pick to take that on.

Seabrook is EASILY the worst contract in the entire league.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Sep 17 @ 4:18 PM ET
The issue for most teams is the cap hit, not the dollar amount. If they were to target players like Eriksson ($6.0Mx2yrs AAV), Lucic ($5.3Mx3yrs AAV), Okposo ($6.0M/3yrs AAV), or Seabrook ($6.9Mx4yrs), they would get back a whole lot more than just a mid-round pick. And in each case, the dollars remaining are substantially less than the cap hit on paper, especially in a buyout scenario where you don't include owed signing bonus money in the calculation.
- khawk

I'd like to see these kind of deals enacted to get a quality asset but considering this team and owner, I feel the chances of it happening is weaker.

As you said, the team needs to basically sign players to make a roster so maybe they can squeeze someone in, but 18 million gets used up pretty fast. Each one of those players cap hit would take up roughly a 1/3 of the cap space. Duclair and Brown will likely be getting raises which is roughly another 1/3 of the 18 million. Considering the tight time frame, Dorion has a lot of work to do.

I am in support of smart GMing to get a useable asset.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Sep 17 @ 5:11 PM ET
i'd rather them pull a deal with Edmonton.

the 14th pick and Pulijjarvi for something, then draft the Russian goalie (assuming canes didn't take him at 13

14, JP, and Russell (as a cap dump)

for

Isles pick, Ottawa 2nd rd pick, gustavsson

- sensarmy_11

I like that, it is a nice package you have put together.
- spatso


Are you kidding?
It's not as bad as some other ideas but I don't know why Edmonton would do this. Also I wouldn't be so quick to trade away the goalie
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Sep 17 @ 5:13 PM ET
because he's not a great player, he's a bottom pairing guy making 3.5 mil........Bergevin is INSANE for giving out that deal.

the happiest person alive for the Edmundson deal is Boro, as both are similar players (on the ice)........if it's going to cost 3.5mil to land a mediocre bottom pairing guy, i'm stoked we let Boro walk.

- sensarmy_11
Edmundson was a top 4D on a cup winning team and is still in his prime. As a Dman he had 7 even strength points (with barely any PP time) during the cup run. He is well worth the money.

The fact you would compare Boro to him ....u can't be serious

Boro will cost 50% or less of that, unless someone gets stupid (Jeff Finger)
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Sep 17 @ 6:18 PM ET
Are you kidding?
It's not as bad as some other ideas but I don't know why Edmonton would do this. Also I wouldn't be so quick to trade away the goalie

- AlfieisKing


It’s literally better and more realistic than any single trade you’ve ever proposed on this site.
PogBoi
Season Ticket Holder
Ottawa Senators
Location: Barrie, ON
Joined: 08.27.2020

Sep 17 @ 6:24 PM ET
Weaponize to get to the cap floor.
SENS-sational
Ottawa Senators
Location: vancouver, BC
Joined: 02.27.2011

Sep 17 @ 8:05 PM ET
NO CAPTAIN NAMED THIS SEASON FELLAS!!! DJ SMITH WILL WAIT FOR NEXT YEAR, THEY WILL GO WITH 3 A'S
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Sep 17 @ 8:32 PM ET
NO CAPTAIN NAMED THIS SEASON FELLAS!!! DJ SMITH WILL WAIT FOR NEXT YEAR, THEY WILL GO WITH 3 A'S
- SENS-sational


Not a big deal........no need to rush a young guy into a forced leadership role.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Sep 17 @ 8:37 PM ET
NO CAPTAIN NAMED THIS SEASON FELLAS!!! DJ SMITH WILL WAIT FOR NEXT YEAR, THEY WILL GO WITH 3 A'S
- SENS-sational

Smart move. Could very well be drafting the next captain in the draft in October. Would be smart to not name a captain for 2-3 more years - when this team is competitive again.
Barrykerr1
Joined: 08.06.2014

Sep 17 @ 9:11 PM ET
Only problem with this idea for Ottawa is they have the cheapest owner in the NHL. I doubt he will want to spend big money on crappy players for draft picks/prospects.

I think something like taking Hossa's contract from Arizona for a guy on LTIR is more up his alley. Also players that have been paid a big bonus on July 1st that cost a lot less than their cap hits is what he will be looking for again.

Melnyk was a tight wad before this covid crap and has shown he will be even more of one with trying to cut staff salary by 50% making the NHL have to come in and put a stop to it....that doesn't scream "hey we'll take your expensive crap for draft picks and prospects " to me.

- dcz28


This post hits the nail on the head, Melynk has serious financial problems, probably worse than we suspect. The gate revenues lost this year will pale in comparison to next season. The second wave of Covid is starting in Ontario so Melynk being no dummy has to take this into account in order to survive. He will only spend to the floor by taking on team friendly useless contracts like Hossa’s for high draft picks. This may work out well down the line with a young team having the best prospects in the NHL. Dorian has his work cut out for him.



AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Sep 18 @ 12:33 AM ET
It’s literally better and more realistic than any single trade you’ve ever proposed on this site.
- sensarmy_11
gtfo here
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Sep 18 @ 5:09 AM ET
gtfo here
- AlfieisKing


Didn’t you make a bet to GTFO and Welch on it?

you're mocked mercilessly on almost every blog on this site for your ridiculous trade offers...........it's your stock in trade. the fact that you think a deal is ridiculous is probably a pretty good indication that it's pretty close.

also, I floated it on the Edmonton board, and they seemed to think it was a fair offer, with a potential tweak here or there.

thanks for coming out
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Sep 18 @ 8:30 AM ET
So, Ottawa will pick (this is SLIGHTLY premature)

3
5
28
33
52 (CBJ)
59 (NYI)
and 61 or 62 (Dallas)

A couple of these picks are lower than we'd have liked (as part of the play in), but I still doubt we'd have wound up with 3 and 5 had the season finished up.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Sep 18 @ 8:36 AM ET
So, Ottawa will pick (this is SLIGHTLY premature)

3
5
28
33
52 (CBJ)
59 (NYI)
and 61 or 62 (Dallas)

- david22


If Askarov drops into the mid teens, i'd be okay with them packaging a couple of those and another asset to take a chance on him
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Sep 18 @ 8:45 AM ET
If Askarov drops into the mid teens, i'd be okay with them packaging a couple of those and another asset to take a chance on him
- sensarmy_11


Speculation I saw was with Toronto Carolina and Edmonton in 13-15 rank (not that order I think) he will likely be gone by then.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Sep 18 @ 8:50 AM ET
Speculation I saw was with Toronto Carolina and Edmonton in 13-15 rank (not that order I think) he will likely be gone by then.
- david22


wonder what it would take to get the Carolina pick

28, 32, and a goalie prospect? need to add more?
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Sep 18 @ 12:43 PM ET
This post hits the nail on the head, Melynk has serious financial problems, probably worse than we suspect. The gate revenues lost this year will pale in comparison to next season. The second wave of Covid is starting in Ontario so Melynk being no dummy has to take this into account in order to survive. He will only spend to the floor by taking on team friendly useless contracts like Hossa’s for high draft picks. This may work out well down the line with a young team having the best prospects in the NHL. Dorian has his work cut out for him.
- Barrykerr1

This is why I was speculating that Dorion might not only be looking to take on useless contracts, but also buying people like Ryan/Anisimov out in order to maximize their AAV:$$$ ratio, and target more contracts like this via trade in order to absolutely minimize the actual dollars he has to spend to get to the $60M threshold. It will also be interesting to see how he handles the more significant RFA, like Tierney, Brown, and Duclair... it's certainly not impossible that one or more could be traded, under the guise of creating roster space for younger players.
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