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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: So Close and Yet So Far
Author Message
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Sep 7 @ 9:12 PM ET
this Islanders team is a farce.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Sep 7 @ 9:14 PM ET
ghost is pretty good according to some here
- 2Real

Yeah but I think they want a d man who can also play defense lol. I can’t imagine Marner is available unless the package starts with Myers or Sanheim.
login
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.21.2020

Sep 7 @ 9:15 PM ET
yup means the players aren't as good as we thought
- 2Real

Agree and other team was better. That’s it
login
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.21.2020

Sep 7 @ 9:16 PM ET
Teams are going to be juggling with the expansion draft. And I honestly think some sort of move is made to address the PP.
- hereticpride

Jvr for James Neal .....
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Sep 7 @ 9:21 PM ET
Jvr for James Neal .....
- login



yeah... fantastic. GID Fletch.
KINGKENZO
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: OMAR COMIN'..Head or Gut?.....Watching regular white people
Joined: 01.10.2008

Sep 7 @ 9:22 PM ET
yeah... fantastic. GID Fletch.
- Doc_Sarcasm

2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Sep 7 @ 9:35 PM ET
Yeah but I think they want a d man who can also play defense lol. I can’t imagine Marner is available unless the package starts with Myers or Sanheim.
- hereticpride

sanheim it is
login
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.21.2020

Sep 7 @ 9:38 PM ET
sanheim it is
- 2Real

Seems many fans want to trade slop for a good return.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Sep 7 @ 9:47 PM ET
Considering you get the other 16 teams....I’m proposing 2-1 odds....that’s all. Up for it?
- landros 2


Well the underlying contention was that they are Stanley Cup contenders in the near term, I chose the 4 year window, or some one did.

If you are a cup contender, you should be making the playoffs surely, and 8 teams make it with 1 going through from EC, so your chances each year should at least be 1/8 of going through to SCF. And you have 4 shots of going through like that.

So, your chances of making it it in any one of those years is 1-(7/8)^4 which comes to 0.42.

And now, note that I am making it easy for you. Merely qualifying for the cup finals in any year and even losing makes you a contender. Lets say you go there and lose 4-0. Were you really a contender then? By this accounting, you would be.

If you like, I can give you 6-40 odds to reflect the 0.42 factor, but I think this is fair.

AND: I find it hilarious
you started talking about odds as soon as Tampa came onto view and you were reminded what a real contender looks like.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Sep 7 @ 9:55 PM ET
Nylander's corsi for the season was 54.61. In the playoffs it was 51.67. Get your facts straight.
- MJL


Nope.

Nope.

60.5 (as I said) in 19-20 (68 games) and 55% over playoffs (5 games).

And that's elite, btw.

https://www.hockey-refere...n/nylanwi01-advanced.html

(2nd table, 2nd line from bottom) and5th table (last line)


This is the second time in a month you have angrily challenged me about facts that are easily read from a website, and second time you have been wrong.

Oh, how I am going to miss you from tomorrow.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Sep 7 @ 9:55 PM ET
Well the underlying contention was that they are Stanley Cup contenders in the near term, I chose the 4 year window, or some one did.

If you are a cup contender, you should be making the playoffs surely, and 8 teams make it with 1 going through from EC, so your chances each year should at least be 1/8 of going through to ECF. And you have 4 shots of going through like that.

So, your chances of making it it in any one of those years is 1-(7/8)^4 which comes to 0.42.

And now, note that I am making it easy for you. Merely qualifying for the cup finals in any year and even losing makes you a contender. Lets say you go there and lose 4-0. Were you really a contender then? By this accounting, you would be.

If you like, I can give you 6-40 odds to reflect the 0.42 factor, but I think this is fair.

AND: I find it hilarious
you started talking about odds as soon as Tampa came onto view and you were reminded what a real contender looks like.

- PT21


I was watching Rocky 3 actually....I could get far greater odds then 2-1 in Vegas....I thought I was being nice.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Sep 7 @ 9:58 PM ET
I was watching Rocky 3 actually....I could get far greater odds then 2-1 in Vegas....I thought I was being nice.
- landros 2


Wait, you are saying you consider them to be SC contenders over a 4 year term and you cannot even assume a 50-50 odds they will APPEAR in the final?

How can they be considered contenders then?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 7 @ 10:01 PM ET
Nope.

Nope.

60.5 (as I said) in 19-20 (68 games) and 55% over playoffs (5 games).

And that's elite, btw.

https://www.hockey-refere...n/nylanwi01-advanced.html

(2nd table, 2nd line from bottom) and5th table (last line)


This is the second time in a month you have angrily challenged me about facts that are easily read from a website, and second time you have been wrong.

Oh, how I am going to miss you from tomorrow.

- PT21


Easily read from a website.

https://www.naturalstattr...ines=single&draftteam=ALL
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Sep 7 @ 10:01 PM ET
Wait, you are saying you consider them to be SC contenders over a 4 year term and you cannot even assume a 50-50 odds they will APPEAR in the final?

How can they be considered contenders then?

- PT21


And btw, the reason you can get far better odds from Vegas is because Vegas, quite rationally, does not expect them to appear in the final over those years.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Sep 7 @ 10:03 PM ET
Easily read from a website.

https://www.naturalstattr...ines=single&draftteam=ALL

- MJL


Not the one I posted, which is very commonly used. At worst then, two different sites provide different information.

When correcting someone, try to look at possible ways the guy could be right before baying like a nutjob.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 7 @ 10:04 PM ET
Well the underlying contention was that they are Stanley Cup contenders in the near term, I chose the 4 year window, or some one did.

If you are a cup contender, you should be making the playoffs surely, and 8 teams make it with 1 going through from EC, so your chances each year should at least be 1/8 of going through to SCF. And you have 4 shots of going through like that.

So, your chances of making it it in any one of those years is 1-(7/8)^4 which comes to 0.42.

And now, note that I am making it easy for you. Merely qualifying for the cup finals in any year and even losing makes you a contender. Lets say you go there and lose 4-0. Were you really a contender then? By this accounting, you would be.

If you like, I can give you 6-40 odds to reflect the 0.42 factor, but I think this is fair.

AND: I find it hilarious
you started talking about odds as soon as Tampa came onto view and you were reminded what a real contender looks like.

- PT21


No, you aren't making it easy, you're being dishonest. Based on your criteria, there are only 2 contenders for the Cup in any given season? It's actually more than that and a lot of factors play into a team making the finals. If you had any kind of balls, you'd make the bet more reasonable and have the criteria making it to the conference finals. I find it hilarious that you again show your arrogance with the response to the poster making a counter proposal.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Sep 7 @ 10:04 PM ET
Not the one I posted, which is very commonly used. At worst then, two different sites provide different information.

When correcting someone, try to look at possible ways the guy could be right before baying like a nutjob.

- PT21


You're not right, you were proven wrong. There you go again, coming unraveled when challenged and calling people names.

This shows your lack of understanding of analytics. Corsi should always be looked at in 5 on 5 play. Educate yourself and you might get it right.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

Sep 7 @ 10:10 PM ET
Wait, you are saying you consider them to be SC contenders over a 4 year term and you cannot even assume a 50-50 odds they will APPEAR in the final?

How can they be considered contenders then?

- PT21


Your 11 wins isn’t the Cup finals; the minimum in your mind is a game 7 loss in the conference finals, right?

1 round - 4 wins
2 round - 4 wins
3 round - 3 win minimum = your contender status

I think it’s pretty close to fair, but I would think most would agree 10 wins is true contender status though.

Edit: This would mean 3 or 4 contenders a year most of the time which is more accurate than 2 or 3.

Regardless, the Flyers will get there in your window.
MrBuzzcut
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 04.04.2007

Sep 7 @ 10:13 PM ET
this Islanders team is a farce.
- PLindbergh31


Hey! They just played a grueling series against the Flyers.

There were a few periods where they had to break a sweat.
MrBuzzcut
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 04.04.2007

Sep 7 @ 10:14 PM ET
A long-suffering fan of both, I am of the opinion that the Orioles will make the World Series before the Flyers make the SCF.
ClutchFlyer
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Warminster, PA
Joined: 04.08.2008

Sep 7 @ 10:15 PM ET
Hey! They just played a grueling series against the Flyers.

There were a few periods where they had to break a sweat.

- MrBuzzcut


Gee.....look what speed and skill on the wings can do.....the Isles look like the Mighty Ducks before Gordon Bombay took over as coach!
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ersson-Ville, NB, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Sep 7 @ 10:15 PM ET
Hey! They just played a grueling series against the Flyers.

There were a few periods where they had to break a sweat.

- MrBuzzcut


The flyers made the isles look like world beaters. Looks like they might not be. Wow. Destruction.
arichardson22
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.10.2013

Sep 7 @ 10:16 PM ET
Nice to see isles get spanked.
ClutchFlyer
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Warminster, PA
Joined: 04.08.2008

Sep 7 @ 10:18 PM ET
A long-suffering fan of both, I am of the opinion that the Orioles will make the World Series before the Flyers make the SCF.
- MrBuzzcut


With the Jays, Yanks and Rays already in the division?
The Caps and Pens are in decline, it is the Flyers, Rangers and Isles division now like the old Patrick Division days!




Sir_Robot_Farts
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.27.2020

Sep 7 @ 10:19 PM ET
The flyers made the isles look like world beaters. Looks like they might not be. Wow. Destruction.
- Hextall271


I thought the Islanders were a lot better than this. I figured they'd be the ones to beat in the east after our series. Now I see we are light years away from a cup.
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