Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Possible answers to Buffalo's 2-C quandary--mid-six by committee
Author Message
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Sep 3 @ 5:09 PM ET
Ask any Calgary fan then..

The line runs through Johnny hockey and he's basically the center

- GERBE!!!75PTS


The RAPM chart I posted of Gaudreau is only this year. If someone wants to post a side-by-side of Gaudreau and Monahan for both this year, and one for 2017-2020, im willing to listen to the argument. Right now it seems like their fortunes rise and fall together, with Monahan slightly more offensively talented and less defensively talented.

I don't know how to make customized RAPM charts or I would do it myself
Sabretooth9
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 05.24.2019

Sep 3 @ 5:11 PM ET
Ask any Calgary fan then..

The line runs through Johnny hockey and he's basically the center

- GERBE!!!75PTS


Right ..... the point is. Monahan faced teams top lines all year long. In buffalo, he doesn’t have to do that.

Johnny hockey or not. Monahan is a good player.

And it’s funny you will trade Sam ..... who is a proven nhl player and not the 8th overall pick for a player the Sabres won’t use for 2-3 years and we won’t even know if he pans out or not

That is bad wannabe gming
navinrjohnson
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are finally good, NY
Joined: 12.08.2009

Sep 3 @ 5:14 PM ET
Whats wrong with that
- GERBE!!!75PTS

based on your response, kim and terry should get rid of the bills and sabres


GERBE!!!75PTS
San Jose Sharks
Location: Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Jack Eichel-, CA
Joined: 02.11.2009

Sep 3 @ 5:17 PM ET
Right ..... the point is. Monahan faced teams top lines all year long. In buffalo, he doesn’t have to do that.

Johnny hockey or not. Monahan is a good player.

And it’s funny you will trade Sam ..... who is a proven nhl player and not the 8th overall pick for a player the Sabres won’t use for 2-3 years and we won’t even know if he pans out or not

That is bad wannabe gming

- Sabretooth9


If you look at the charts someone posted it and said hes already faced less competition has still been terrible..

I forgot who posted it
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Sep 3 @ 5:19 PM ET
If you look at the charts someone posted it and said hes already faced less competition has still been terrible..

I forgot who posted it

- GERBE!!!75PTS


Just post a Gaudreau and Monahan side-by-side EV RAPM chart and we can move on. I genuinely want to see the difference but I dont have the ability to do it
GERBE!!!75PTS
San Jose Sharks
Location: Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Jack Eichel-, CA
Joined: 02.11.2009

Sep 3 @ 5:19 PM ET
Right ..... the point is. Monahan faced teams top lines all year long. In buffalo, he doesn’t have to do that.

Johnny hockey or not. Monahan is a good player.

And it’s funny you will trade Sam ..... who is a proven nhl player and not the 8th overall pick for a player the Sabres won’t use for 2-3 years and we won’t even know if he pans out or not

That is bad wannabe gming

- Sabretooth9


The 8th pick is Cost controlled and has more upside then sam and It's not gonna cost 7 million dollars
SabresFaninIndiana
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Bananaville, IN
Joined: 12.16.2009

Sep 3 @ 5:25 PM ET
The 8th pick is Cost controlled and has more upside then sam and It's not gonna cost 7 million dollars
- GERBE!!!75PTS

Or could end up being a career 4th liner
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Sep 3 @ 5:26 PM ET
I think I can agree with the top, that it wasn't some great trade by Botts. I just don't see a ton given up. Then again, I don't know what other cap moves were to be had.

I would say to the 2nd part, it doesn't matter if it's Pitt that resigns him as long as it's 2.5-3.5M, he's stayed similar value then. I think on the open market he'll get that, but I'll gladly retract as well if that doesn't come to pass. I haven't seen his expected contract but would figured 2-3y 2.5-3.5M would be around the area.

- RhinoFan


I think that's really high, especially this year. If he stays in Pitt, I wouldn't be shocked at all if it was a 1 yr @ 1m deal.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Sep 3 @ 5:32 PM ET


Johnny Hockey has a scary red line as well, and his happy blue line isn't as happy as Monahan

So Monahan is happier and sadder than Gaudreau

- jcragcrumple


The problem with the chart you shared is it's not accurate for Gaudreau as he had 1070 minutes at even strength and 197 on the power play.

He was overall neutral on the chart when the entire season is factored in at even strength and the power play.
navinrjohnson
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are finally good, NY
Joined: 12.08.2009

Sep 3 @ 5:32 PM ET
Or could end up being a career 4th liner
- SabresFaninIndiana

could be an all star 4th liner though
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

Sep 3 @ 5:33 PM ET
I think that's really high, especially this year. If he stays in Pitt, I wouldn't be shocked at all if it was a 1 yr @ 1m deal.
- Lunaion


I wish I had access to one of those expected contract sites. I don't, you may be right. I was going off of a couple Pitt articles I'd found that was talking about resigning him.

https://penslabyrinth.com...nguins-conor-sheary-deal/

https://puckprose.com/202...uins-pending-free-agents/

They have 2.56M valuation fwiw.
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

Sep 3 @ 5:37 PM ET
could be an all star 4th liner though
- navinrjohnson


We already got Zemgus, 1s enough.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Sep 3 @ 5:39 PM ET
I think I can agree with the top, that it wasn't some great trade by Botts. I just don't see a ton given up. Then again, I don't know what other cap moves were to be had.

I would say to the 2nd part, it doesn't matter if it's Pitt that resigns him as long as it's 2.5-3.5M, he's stayed similar value then. I think on the open market he'll get that, but I'll gladly retract as well if that doesn't come to pass. I haven't seen his expected contract but would figured 2-3y 2.5-3.5M would be around the area.

- RhinoFan


I'm not sure which player you are talking regarding next contract, so I'll share both players predictions from Evolving Hockey (top 3):

Conor Sheary

28% 4 Years @ $3.5M per
23% 6 Years @ $4.2M per
15% 3 Years @ $2.9M per

Kahun

41% 2 Years @ $2.9M per
26% 4 Years @ $3.7M per
19% 3 Years @ $3.3M per
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Sep 3 @ 5:39 PM ET
I wish I had access to one of those expected contract sites. I don't, you may be right. I was going off of a couple Pitt articles I'd found that was talking about resigning him.

https://penslabyrinth.com...nguins-conor-sheary-deal/

https://puckprose.com/202...uins-pending-free-agents/

They have 2.56M valuation fwiw.

- RhinoFan


Like I said, I think a lot of those deals are going to get squeezed pretty tight.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Sep 3 @ 5:42 PM ET
I think that's really high, especially this year. If he stays in Pitt, I wouldn't be shocked at all if it was a 1 yr @ 1m deal.
- Lunaion


Are you talking about Conor Sheary?

His 1 year deal is predicted to be at $2M, but that is the 6th most likely prediction from Evolving Hockey, who have historically been very good at predicting contracts.

I posted the top 3 predictions in a prior post.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Sep 3 @ 5:42 PM ET
Like I said, I think a lot of those deals are going to get squeezed pretty tight.
- Lunaion


We'll see how close the predictions come to being accurate with the cap remaining the same.
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

Sep 3 @ 5:46 PM ET
I'm not sure which player you are talking regarding next contract, so I'll share both players predictions from Evolving Hockey (top 3):

Conor Sheary

28% 4 Years @ $3.5M per
23% 6 Years @ $4.2M per
15% 3 Years @ $2.9M per

Kahun

41% 2 Years @ $2.9M per
26% 4 Years @ $3.7M per
19% 3 Years @ $3.3M per

- kingcong39


Thanks for this. Was referring to Sheary, but Kahun's is an added bonus. I figured he'd be right around that 3m number.

We'll see what actually gets signed though. For all I know a 1 year, low cap hit deal to stay could be Sheary's ticket to stay with Sid.
SabresFaninIndiana
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Bananaville, IN
Joined: 12.16.2009

Sep 3 @ 5:47 PM ET
We already got Zemgus, 1s enough.
- RhinoFan

Too bad John Scott wasn’t still around.

Although I don’t think we have lion boy any longer..
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

Sep 3 @ 5:48 PM ET
Like I said, I think a lot of those deals are going to get squeezed pretty tight.
- Lunaion


Could definitely happen. That'd be more of a product of the situation than his value though. We'll see what he signs, it'll be pretty interesting if a bunch of FAs start taking low cheddar 1 year deals to stay with their teams.
RhinoFan
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Visionville
Joined: 10.12.2015

Sep 3 @ 5:49 PM ET
Too bad John Scott wasn’t still around.

Although I don’t think we have lion boy any longer..

- SabresFaninIndiana


How did I forget about the giant? Good call.

And yeah, the lion eater sleeps now. He will dream of days with Ennis and Moulson as a top line NHL center.
TheSabresTaco
Buffalo Sabres
Location: For me. jack Eichel is bobby ryan….that's it. - Octavarium, NY
Joined: 05.05.2011

Sep 3 @ 5:50 PM ET
could be an all star 4th liner though
- navinrjohnson


His name is Larry
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Sep 3 @ 5:53 PM ET
Are you talking about Conor Sheary?

His 1 year deal is predicted to be at $2M, but that is the 6th most likely prediction from Evolving Hockey, who have historically been very good at predicting contracts.

I posted the top 3 predictions in a prior post.

- kingcong39


Yes. I enjoy their work a lot. I just think this is a year where those 2-3.5m players are getting less $ and term than you would normally project. Not sure how they factored pandemic issues into things.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Sep 3 @ 5:57 PM ET
If I'm reading this right, it shows their GF/60 and their xGF/60, but only shows the xGA/60 and doesn't show the actual GA/60

So what's his actual GA/60

I know red line is supposed to show me that something is scary and bad, but that line is a projection, not reality

- jcragcrumple


Please see below for the GF/60, xGF/60, xGA/60, and GA/60 for the past three seasons for each of Gaudreau and Monahan (keep in mind, + is good for GF stats and - is good for GA stats):

Gaudreau (GF/60, xGF/60 -> xGA/60, GA/60)

19-20: -.039, +.051 -> +.013, -.013
18-19: +.239, +.213 -> +.079, +.088
17-18: +.268, +.199 -> +.131, +.082

Monahan (GF/60, xGF/60 -> xGA/60, GA/60)

19-20: +.003, +.023 -> +.156, +.124
18-19: +.176, +.187 -> +.203, +.227
17-18: +.303, +.252 -> +.164, +.094
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Sep 3 @ 6:01 PM ET
Yes. I enjoy their work a lot. I just think this is a year where those 2-3.5m players are getting less $ and term than you would normally project. Not sure how they factored pandemic issues into things.
- Lunaion


How would they factor that in? There's no way to do that without literally guessing at a reduction.

I would be very surprised if Sheary took a one year deal for $1M. I could see him taking a 2 year deal at $2.5M per, like Kahun though.

The players union definitely took notice, and not in a good way, when LaBanc signed that deal last summer for one year at $1M.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Sep 3 @ 6:03 PM ET
He’s an average 2C imo.
- Pegullaville


To be fair, he's been counted on to be the 1C for Calgary for years.

There is a chance he could be a high end 2C with Eichel ahead of him, especially if they have a quality defensive 3C behind Monahan.

He is only turning 26.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62  Next