Also, I’m not sure who would consider Byfield a more “prolific scorer” over Laf, but that type of thinking really makes me question the info you’re reading.
- Trilla

Seriously, I just went over the fact that Lafreniere is a full 10 months older than Byfield, which means Byfield's stats are significantly more fairly compared to what Lafreniere did last year. Look the numbers up, account for GP, and you'll find the following...

Byfield - 45GP, 32G, 50A, 82PTS - 0.71Goals/GP, 1.82Pts/GP
Lafreniere - 61GP, 37G, 68A, 105Pts - 0.61Goals/GP, 1.72Pts/GP

1.82>1.72, 0.71>0.61

So yes, Byfield is a more prolific scorer than Lafreniere was at the same age. In fact, even if you compare Byfield to Lafreniere's most recent season, Byfield still has a higher rate of Goals/GP. And that's without considering things like the fact that Lafreniere played on a better overall team, with higher-scoring supporting players as well.

Argue that Lafreniere has better vision, hockey IQ, and whatever else if you want, but there's no reason to think that if Byfield plays in the OHL next season that he wouldn't be in a good position to match or exceed Lafreniere's 2.15PPG scoring pace from this year. He may also never get a chance to prove himself as an 18yo at the WJC the way Lafreniere did this year. This is precisely why Byfield has such a strong X-factor in terms of potential, in additional to his physical tools.

Well, I would generally regard picks at or near the top-5 to be in a different category, as was the entire 2015 draft. Picking at #17, 21, and 24 in an average/weak draft is really not what I would consider a premium draft opportunity... though I suggest that Bernard-Docker (#26) and Thomson (#19) show an ability in recent years to pull quality players in that range as well. But it's the combination of the pair of top-5 picks and the relative strength of the draft that makes this such a unique opportunity. I also noted the Tkachuk/Zibanejad picks, because they're examples of where they've proven to be far better picks than were initially realized by many fans. That's what I mean about having some faith in Dorion to make a better pick than whatever arbitrary consensus there might be among casual fans.
- khawk

Bernard Docker and Thomson are just prospects

we tend to over rate prospects (everyone does and it's frustrating a bit to me) but it is what it is.

Sens need to hit 2 home runs in top 5, and then try hit 2 solid picks or 1 home run in the next 3-4 picks

Seriously, I just went over the fact that Lafreniere is a full 10 months older than Byfield, which means Byfield's stats are significantly more fairly compared to what Lafreniere did last year. Look the numbers up, account for GP, and you'll find the following...

Byfield - 45GP, 32G, 50A, 82PTS - 0.71Goals/GP, 1.82Pts/GP
Lafreniere - 61GP, 37G, 68A, 105Pts - 0.61Goals/GP, 1.72Pts/GP

1.82>1.72, 0.71>0.61

So yes, Byfield is a more prolific scorer than Lafreniere was at the same age. In fact, even if you compare Byfield to Lafreniere's most recent season, Byfield still has a higher rate of Goals/GP. Argue that Lafreniere has better vision, hockey IQ, and whatever else if you want, but there's no reason to think that if Byfield plays in the OHL next season that he wouldn't be in a good position to match or exceed Lafreniere's 2.15PPG scoring pace from this year. This is precisely why Byfield has such a strong X-factor in terms of untapped potential.
- khawk

This is the problem with incomplete stats and unfinished seasons. Numbers become inflated if a player doesn’t complete their season.

For example if Byfield played 46 games and his point totals were 33G and 50A (83p),his ppg would drop to 1.80.

We could say the same for Laf, but having played 16 more games then Byfield at the same age, gives us more accurate data.

Also, Laf ends the qmjhl with a 1.7ppg in 173 games played..which puts him 6th All time for Left wingers in the Q

This is the problem with incomplete stats and unfinished seasons. Numbers become inflated if a player doesn’t complete their season.

For example if Byfield played 46 games and his point totals were 33G and 50A (83p),his ppg would drop to 1.80.

We could say the same for Laf, but having played 16 more games then Byfield at the same age, gives us more accurate data.

Also, Laf ends the qmjhl with a 1.7ppg in 173 games played..which puts him 6th All time for Left wingers in the Q
- Trilla

Under 19

Well I just said it’s stupid to base your pick on “what that player can become” because it’s not a legitimate reason. It’s hard enough drafting good players, so why further complicate it with “ifs” and “maybes”. You need to nail your 1st round pick because the other 6 rounds become more of a challenge to find gems.
- Trilla

I'm honestly a bit at a loss over this statement, given what a player can become is quite literally the only thing that matters when drafting players. You don't get bonus points down the road for picking the player that scored more points in the CHL, played on a good team, did whatever at the WJC, played their first NHL game earlier, etc. All you care about as a GM is what the player can become playing in the NHL in a few years' time, and whether they're the best player to help the team win games. It's not only a legitimate reason, it's the only reason.

Naturally, you base your picks on the information at hand, but at the end of the day there are "ifs" and "maybes" to consider for all of the prospects. You make it sound like Byfield is some kind of chaotic wild card. Stutzle hasn't even played a single game outside of Germany... that's a hell of a major if/maybe, yet there seems to be little concern about him as a potential #2 overall pick, and some even believe he could rival Lafreniere's upside. Rossi and Drysdale are a bit undersized, but may be perfect for the NHL in the coming decade. Again, all that matters is the extent to which you believe that player will thrive in the NHL, and help you win.

I'm honestly a bit at a loss over this statement, given what a player can become is quite literally the only thing that matters when drafting players. You don't get bonus points down the road for picking the player that scored more points in the CHL, played on a good team, did whatever at the WJC, played their first NHL game earlier, etc. All you care about as a GM is what the player can become playing in the NHL in a few years' time, and whether they're the best player to help the team win games. It's not only a legitimate reason, it's the only reason.

Naturally, you base your picks on the information at hand, but at the end of the day there are "ifs" and "maybes" to consider for all of the prospects. You make it sound like Byfield is some kind of chaotic wild card. I mean Stutzle hasn't even played a single game outside of Germany... that's a hell of a major if/maybe, yet there seems to be little concern about him as a potential #2 overall pick, and some even believe he could rival Lafreniere's upside. Rossi and Drysdale are a bit undersized, but may be perfect for the NHL in the coming decade. Again, all that matters is the extent to which you believe that player will thrive in the NHL, and help you win.
- khawk

Again, to use that argument as your sole or main reason for selecting a guy in the 1st round is bad management.

If that’s the case, then Askarov should go 1st overall.

Every single player in this draft could become the best player..but you need to narrow down the information, based on what you have, what you’ve seen, and what you’re scouts are telling you. At this point in time, there is no debate who the top candidate is. If you’re the Rangers and want to move down and select Byfield, no problem. But selecting him 1st overall on the bases of “he will be the best” is not good when you have someone Who IS the best now. And for the most part..the ones who are currently the best, end up staying the best.

I feel like a good example is Nikushkin. At one point he was touted as a top 5 pick in 2013. Even though he didn’t have a big resume like Barkov, mack, and jones..everyone was crazy about his “size” and strength. Guess who he got comparisons to? Evgeni Malkin.

This is a perfect example, of a team drafting a player, based on “what they think he could become” rather than looking at the players resume, and what he’s done up until that point.

When it comes to Stutzle, he’s the true wild card. Ya he played in Germany, but he was playing with Men over the age of 25. He’s arguably the best skater in the class and he proved it at the Worlds, where he played Center for like the first time and dominated.

Well, I would generally regard picks at or near the top-5 to be in a different category, as was the entire 2015 draft. Picking at #17, 21, and 24 in an average/weak draft is really not what I would consider a premium draft opportunity... though I suggest that Bernard-Docker (#26) and Thomson (#19) show an ability in recent years to pull quality players in that range as well. But it's the combination of the pair of top-5 picks and the relative strength of the draft that makes this such a unique opportunity. I also noted the Tkachuk/Zibanejad picks, because they're examples of where they've proven to be far better picks than were initially realized by many fans. That's what I mean about having some faith in Dorion to make a better pick than whatever arbitrary consensus there might be among casual fans.
- khawk

Are you an average hockey fan as well, because Bernard-Docker and Thompson haven't played a second of NHL hockey so I'd tap breaks on patting Dorion on the back for those picks just yet. They are coming along fine.

I am not totally sure your argument other than having a very positive view of things. Not every pick will turn to gold, unless Dorion is picking I guess?

It will be interesting to see what happens come draft day.

Bernard Docker and Thomson are just prospects

we tend to over rate prospects (everyone does and it's frustrating a bit to me) but it is what it is.

Sens need to hit 2 home runs in top 5, and then try hit 2 solid picks or 1 home run in the next 3-4 picks
- AlfieisKing

Good post.

I think sens need another D Player this season, i hope they look into 1 of these players to tighten up the Defense. what do you all think? Are we confident with our D or 1 more veteran D needs to come to Ottawa?

Pulock, Ryan
Montour, Brandon
Krug, Torey
Tanev, Christopher
Schultz, Justin

It's not "stupid", it just depends on what information you're considering in determining who you believe the prospect to be. Also, you can't just "take those risks in later rounds", because there's only a handful of players who could realistically exceed Lafreniere in terms of potential. You either take that risk when you have the chance in the early 1st round, or you don't get players with that kind of potential upside.

Now, to your point there's little question that if you just look at current performance, then Lafreniere tops the list. However, Byfield quite literally just turned 18 today... Lafreniere will turn 19 a few days after the draft. So it's actually quite a bit more fair to compare Byfield to where Lafreniere was last year. And if you do, Byfield is actually ahead of where Lafreniere was a year ago in terms of scoring, and is already a more prolific goal scorer. People who were down on how Byfield played at the WJC would also be wise to recall that Lafreniere also only had 1pt when he played in the WJC as a 17yo. Factor in his size, positional value at C, and unrealized potential, and it's really not that surprising that some people believe that Byfield has a higher ceiling than Lafreniere.
- khawk

Good post!

There is a good chance Byfield will surpass Lafreniere and be the best player in this years draft 3-5 years from now, the same goes for Stutzle. Whoever we pick at number 3 will be our top forward for years to come. The interesting pick will be number 5, the Senators have picked a defenseman in the first round in the last 2 drafts. However the picks were Docker at 26 and Thomson at 19, both should be reliable NHL players. What the Senators desperately need is an elite defenseman like Sanderson or Drysdale, either could jump past Chabot to be the number 1 D Man on the team, they are that good!

Good post.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Fingers crossed they don't repeat a 2013 and trade for Bobby Ryan

Resigning Chabot is a great sign. I still have faith in colin white

Are you an average hockey fan as well, because Bernard-Docker and Thompson haven't played a second of NHL hockey so I'd tap breaks on patting Dorion on the back for those picks just yet. They are coming along fine.

I am not totally sure your argument other than having a very positive view of things. Not every pick will turn to gold, unless Dorion is picking I guess?
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I never said every pick will turn into gold, but I think people take for granted how good a drafting team the Senators are. Underplay JBD and Thomson all you want (as many did when they were selected), but one has gone on to play very well in the SM-Liiga and serve as a WJC captain, while the other made Canada's WJC team and was a key part of one of the best teams in the NCAA last year. That's a fair bit more impressive that just "coming along fine", though you're right that it remains to be seen what role they can play at the NHL level.

But honestly, I'm also a fan of the Canucks, and there's a team that's genetically incapable of picking an NHL player outside of the 1st round. As a result, I don't take the Senators' drafting record for granted. Seriously, check out the mid-round drafting record for the Canucks over the past ~15 years...
https://www.hockeydb.com/...aft/teams/dr00008756.html

Now compare that with a track record of drafting in the 3rd-7th rounds like Stone, Hoffman, Dzingel, Pageau, and Hogberg... with Wolanin and Batherson showing high-quality potential as well. So all I was really saying is that handing a group with a solid drafting record a pair of top-5 picks in such a strong draft should be a recipe for landing a pair of excellent prospects.

Mark Stone has 10 goals 10 assists in his last 15 playoff games

Erik Brannstrom better be f**king good

I never said every pick will turn into gold, but I think people take for granted how good a drafting team the Senators are. Underplay JBD and Thomson all you want (as many did when they were selected), but one has gone on to play very well in the SM-Liiga and serve as a WJC captain, while the other made Canada's WJC team and was a key part of one of the best teams in the NCAA last year. That's a fair bit more impressive that just "coming along fine", though you're right that it remains to be seen what role they can play at the NHL level.

But honestly, I'm also a fan of the Canucks, and there's a team that's genetically incapable of picking an NHL player outside of the 1st round. As a result, I don't take the Senators' drafting record for granted. Seriously, check out the mid-round drafting record for the Canucks over the past ~15 years...
https://www.hockeydb.com/...aft/teams/dr00008756.html

Now compare that with a track record of drafting in the 3rd-7th rounds like Stone, Hoffman, Dzingel, Pageau, and Hogberg... with Wolanin and Batherson showing high-quality potential as well. So all I was really saying is that handing a group with a solid drafting record a pair of top-5 picks in such a strong draft should be a recipe for landing a pair of excellent prospects.
- khawk

Ottawa should be able to stock the cupboard well at this years draft.

Mark Stone has 10 goals 10 assists in his last 15 playoff games

Erik Brannstrom better be f**king good
- AlfieisKing

If a team is in a rebuilding mode, we make a mistake when we look at trades in a purely transactional framework. You need to look at the grand aggregates.

Ottawa decided they wanted to rebuild therefore they traded the following assets


Karlsson
Stone
Pageau
Duchene
Dzingle
Demelo
etc
etc

In return, they received the following assets

#3 overall
Norris
Tierney
Demelo
Balcers
Brannstrom
#21
#52
etc.
etc

You need to have both lists fully completed. Only then can you assess overall success. On the day Dorion traded Karlsson most Sens fans hated the deal. Now?

If a team is in a rebuilding mode, we make a mistake when we look at trades in a purely transactional framework. You need to look at the grand aggregates.

Ottawa decided they wanted to rebuild therefore they traded the following assets


Karlsson
Stone
Pageau
Duchene
Dzingle
Demelo
etc
etc

In return, they received the following assets

#3 overall
Norris
Tierney
Demelo
Balcers
Brannstrom
#21
#52
etc.
etc

You need to have both lists fully completed. Only then can you assess overall success. On the day Dorion traded Karlsson most Sens fans hated the deal. Now?
- spatso

For poops and giggles:

#3 overall - Byfield or Struzle in all likelihood. Based on scouting reports, either are great pieces to have. NHL teams have been fooled before though.
Norris - Middling prospect. Had a good year last year. Still developing.
Tierney - Tremendously replaceable depth centre.
Demelo - Typical stay at home defenceman who was slightly overvalued due to having some success with Chabot.
Balcers - His window is closing fast with new prospects coming.
Brannstrom - Lets be honest, had a disappointing year last year. Time to reverse that still. Big season this year. Wildcard really.
#21 - Assuming we strike gold in the draft.
#52 - Assuming we strike gold in the draft.
etc. - Assuming we strike gold in the draft.
etc -Assuming we strike gold in the draft.

I think everyone can agree this years draft is a great opportunity to stock the prospect cupboard. I am a little tired of the assumption each and every pick and prospect will turn into an everyday NHL player.

I think everyone can agree this years draft is a great opportunity to stock the prospect cupboard. I am a little tired of the assumption each and every pick and prospect will turn into an everyday NHL player.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I get your general point... but some of your prospect descriptions are puzzling. You describe Norris as a middling prospect, but this is a guy who had a very good sophomore year at Michigan, had a strong performance wearing an 'A' for a silver-medal WJC team, and then was a top-5 scorer with 30G in the AHL as a rookie. Now I'm not sure he has more than #2C upside potential, but he's sure as hell more than a middling prospect. In virtually every sense I would have him on par with Brannstrom, who is also not a middling prospect. Neither are Bernard-Docker, or Thomson, as per our discussion yesterday.

Honestly, it's okay to call these guys good prospects, because they are. Just because Dorion has assembled quite a few of them and they haven't had a chance to impact the NHL yet doesn't degrade them into mediocrity. Now, to your point, they're still prospects and it also doesn't mean they're guaranteed any kind of success... but it's certainly more likely in the cards for the players like these than the majority of other prospects in the system - or anyone else's system, for that matter. Even before the 2020 draft, Ottawa's prospect group is widely regarded as in the top-3 of the league, and with good reason.

I get your general point... but some of your prospect descriptions are puzzling. You describe Norris as a middling prospect, but this is a guy who had a very good sophomore year at Michigan, had a strong performance wearing an 'A' for a silver-medal WJC team, and then was a top-5 scorer with 30G in the AHL as a rookie. Now I'm not sure he has more than #2C upside potential, but he's sure as hell more than a middling prospect. In virtually every sense I would have him on par with Brannstrom, who is also not a middling prospect. Neither are Bernard-Docker, or Thomson, as per our discussion yesterday.

Honestly, it's okay to call these guys good prospects, because they are. Just because Dorion has assembled quite a few of them and they haven't had a chance to impact the NHL yet doesn't degrade them into mediocrity. Now, to your point, they're still prospects and it also doesn't mean they're guaranteed any kind of success... but it's certainly more likely in the cards for the players like these than the majority of other prospects in the system - or anyone else's system, for that matter. Even before the 2020 draft, Ottawa's prospect group is widely regarded as in the top-3 of the league, and with good reason.
- khawk

Perhaps this is where definitions differ. I don't see (and I don't think anyone else sees) Norris's ceiling being higher than a top 6 forward, middle of the lineup kind of guy, hence middling prospect. Maybe that is the wrong definition. My opinion, if a guy is likely to not be a top line player, I don't call them a top prospect. If prospect descriptions are just about making the NHL, then, yes, that's a poor description on my part.

Ottawa does indeed have a strong prospect group when you compare it league wide. That doesn't necessarily mean they will all pan out to reach their ceilings. In my opinion having prospects turn into 3rd and 4th line players for 4th, 5th or 6th d-men isn't exactly a success story. Not saying that what this group will be but if the prospect definition is purely the possibility of being an NHLer, I think that is where disagreement occurs.

Perhaps this is where definitions differ. I don't see (and I don't think anyone else sees) Norris's ceiling being higher than a top 6 forward, middle of the lineup kind of guy, hence middling prospect. Maybe that is the wrong definition. My opinion, if a guy is likely to not be a top line player, I don't call them a top prospect. If prospect descriptions are just about making the NHL, then, yes, that's a poor description on my part.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Well, I'd suggest that's a pretty limiting definition. The vast majority of drafted players never play in the NHL, and a good #2C can be a critical part of a good team, making upwards of $6M/yr. That's hardly what I would regard as an average or mediocre outcome for a prospect. But I would agree that someone who never achieves more than a couple of years with 10min/GP on the 4th line shouldn't be regarded as a drafting success.

I'm also not sure what you mean by "top line" player... people often forget that there's a big difference between what the top-10 players at a given position might do, and what an 'average' top line player might do. If you look at the top-10 C in the NHL last year, they were all on pace for 93pts or more... if you look at who was the #30C (i.e. still less than the number of teams in the league), it's down to being on pace for 63pts. For both LW/RW it drops to the 50-55pts range, which starts to really blur the line between 1st and 2nd line production. Case in point, both Tkachuk and Duclair are already right on the cusp of that level of production, without much of a supporting cast (both projected to ~50pts/82GP last year).

Regardless, we're certainly in agreement about the potential and importance of the coming draft... where hopefully they can pull at least a couple of players you would regard as top prospects.

Well, I'd suggest that's a pretty limiting definition. The vast majority of drafted players never play in the NHL, and a good #2C can be a critical part of a good team, making upwards of $6M/yr. That's hardly what I would regard as an average or mediocre outcome for a prospect. But I would agree that someone who never achieves more than a couple of years with 10min/GP on the 4th line shouldn't be regarded as a drafting success.

I'm also not sure what you mean by "top line" player... people often forget that there's a big difference between what the top-10 players at a given position might do, and what an 'average' top line player might do. If you look at the top-10 C in the NHL last year, they were all on pace for 93pts or more... if you look at who was the #30C (i.e. still less than the number of teams in the league), it's down to being on pace for 63pts. For both LW/RW it drops to the 50-55pts range, which starts to really blur the line between 1st and 2nd line production. Case in point, both Tkachuk and Duclair are already right on the cusp of that level of production, without much of a supporting cast (both projected to ~50pts/82GP last year).

Regardless, we're certainly in agreement about the potential and importance of the coming draft... where hopefully they can pull at least a couple of players you would regard as top prospects.
- khawk

That awkward moment when I never said mediocre prospect.

We can jab all day long on prospect definition. My overall point was that while the prospect pool is strong, there is a long way to go. Every year it's the same old kind of posts pumping our prospects and how great they are. Some pan out, some don't. Some work out right away, some take a few years.

Cheers!

If a team is in a rebuilding mode, we make a mistake when we look at trades in a purely transactional framework. You need to look at the grand aggregates.

Ottawa decided they wanted to rebuild therefore they traded the following assets


Karlsson
Stone
Pageau
Duchene
Dzingle
Demelo
etc
etc

In return, they received the following assets

#3 overall
Norris
Tierney
Demelo
Balcers
Brannstrom
#21
#52
etc.
etc

You need to have both lists fully completed. Only then can you assess overall success. On the day Dorion traded Karlsson most Sens fans hated the deal. Now?
- spatso

ugh - looking at it displayed like this the return on those players seems pretty underwhelming. Other than the #3 overall and the hopes of Brannstrom not much to get too excited about.

i am pretty confident now about 95% sens at #3 will pick Tim Stutzle. Rangers are looking for a Center, as Kings have an abundance of Centers and are looking for wingers. Rangers can definitely pick Byfield for their C. but they are dangling the #1 for more picks and prospects which is a clever move in obtaining more assets/picks.

1. Rangers- byfield
2. LA - Laf
3. OTT - Stutzle
4. DET - drysdale
5. OTT - Rossi/Raymond
6. ANA- Rossi/Raymond
7. NJD - Pefetti
8. Buff - Holtz


At No 5, this is where it gets tough if we can get rossi at 5 and trade our islander pick and some picks to move up and grab drysdale or raymond on the 6th - 9th spot or any of the remaining guys that would be golden.

That awkward moment when I never said mediocre prospect.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Almost as awkward as realizing that's pretty much exactly what middling means?
https://www.merriam-webst...r.com/dictionary/middling

Mediocre is literally one of the words they use to define it. I get the sense you meant it in a less negative sense, but that's not exactly the convention. Regardless, you're right that ultimately prospects need to prove their worth - 2020/21 will be a huge year in that regard, seeing if the likes of Batherson, Norris, Formenton, White, Brannstrom, etc. can take a major step forward and transition their games to the NHL.

ugh - looking at it displayed like this the return on those players seems pretty underwhelming. Other than the #3 overall and the hopes of Brannstrom not much to get too excited about.
- CaliNewf

According to hockey writers . com, the Senators have the second best prospect pool in the NHL now. Just imagine how powerful their pool will be after this years draft. I think there is a lot to be excited about!

To St. Louis
Bobby Ryan [20% retained]
conditional pick

To Ottawa
Tyler Bozak
Alexander Steen
Contract rights to Alex Pietrangelo [8 x 10.5m]

Brady Tkachuk - Colin White - Connor Brown
Tim Stutzle - Josh Norris - Drake Batherson
Anthony Duclair - Logan Brown - Tyler Bozak
Alex Steen - Chris Tierney - Jayce Hawryluk

Thomas Chabot - Alex Pietrangelo
Erik Brannstrom - Nikita Zaitsev
Mark Borowiecki - Christian Wolanin/Artem Zub

Anders Nilsson
Marcus Hogberg

*Lucas Raymond or Marco Rossi start in Belleville